Model Output Discussion:

[NorthernRab]

Looking like snow showers as early as Monday but mainly in NE England and E Scotland. A little more patchy in the south.

[Optimus Prime]

Sure is. And this time theses a deep cold pool just to the east

Unfortunately there's isn't any deep cold pools to the east. But with a cold North sea modification will be 2c or 3c less than what we usually have so the flow will be colder. Snow showers even on the coast I should think.

[PB22]

If this chart comes off, I may see the most snowfall ever in my lifetime!

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1442.html

UKMO T+120 is increasingly cold and snowy too:

[Andy Bown]

UKMO 12Z looking good so far as well:

Is there a fax chart available for Monday 8 Feb yet to show where any front might be?

Forecasts have said about rain coming into the SW late Sunday, but I would guess with the cold pushing from the East there will be somewhere that that front will stall before being pushed back W/SW - and that could be an early snow chance.

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Touch wood, its funny how this upcoming cold snap/spell is yet again going to coincide with a quite negative NAO + AO . If I was ever forced to long range predict winter weather, the nao/ao would be my main tools in doing so...

[kold weather]

Some pretty decent thicknesses near the east coast by 144hrs, down to 510 over the low countries so it would be a very cold flow and I'd imagine there'd be at least one or two disturbances rotating around in such a flow.

[Optimus Prime]

Add to this it is a snowy setup. These sort of charts would bring widespread snow showers inland and perhaps blizzards in the east. UKs in a aperfect position so lets hope all this doesn't get shunted southwards!

[Harsh Climate]

Unfortunately there's isn't any deep cold pools to the east. But with a cold North sea modification will be 2c or 3c less than what we usually have so the flow will be colder. Snow showers even on the coast I should think.

I meant towards scandinavia, ye its not excessively cold but with like you say lower ssts, Im sure it would still do the job

[PB22]

Is there a fax chart available for Monday 8 Feb yet to show where any front might be?

Forecasts have said about rain coming into the SW late Sunday, but I would guess with the cold pushing from the East there will be somewhere that that front will stall before being pushed back W/SW - and that could be an early snow chance.

The T+96 (8th) and T+120 (9th) FAX'S will be out at around 10:30pm tonight, something to watch out for given the UKMO 12z output this evening!

[Eugene]

UKMO 12Z is a stunner, much better than this mornings UKMO 00Z run

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?04-17

Edited February 4, 2010 by Eugene

[Optimus Prime]

And here's the BBCs very mild weekend ;

[kold weather]

Both UKMO and GFS look very snowy, esp for the NE/East coast of England, and I['d be willing to bet any money there'd be a couple of troughs/fronts coming in to give more widespread snowfall for areas that don't have the easterly flow, for example the flow isn't that great for the SE but I'm pretty certain disturbances would help out here...

Places on the east coast would probably get some very big falls, very showery flow I'd imagine and not nearly as much moderation of the flow so coastal areas could do better then in recent years if that comes off.

[Weathizard]

Add to this it is a snowy setup. These sort of charts would bring widespread snow showers inland and perhaps blizzards in the east. UKs in a aperfect position so lets hope all this doesn't get shunted southwards!

It really is amazing considering the forecast of 2 days ago, astonishing that charts can turn around from 18C above 0 to struggling to get above zero.

Also, by 'east' would you put south east in the same bracket?

[MR EXTREMES]

Unfortunately there's isn't any deep cold pools to the east. But with a cold North sea modification will be 2c or 3c less than what we usually have so the flow will be colder. Snow showers even on the coast I should think.

erm im sorry to our east its very cold indeed so cold its been making headlines theres been nothing but cold for weeks apon weeks.

so anything like the ukmo and gfs along with the lesser models with be very exciting.

[Optimus Prime]

It really is amazing considering the forecast of 2 days ago, astonishing that charts can turn around from 18C above 0 to struggling to get above zero.

Also, by 'east' would you put south east in the same bracket?

As winds turn more easterly later in the run snow showers would penetrate inland for southern areas.

[PB22]

Thank you very much UKMO 12z! I'll bank that run now please!

T+144:

[Optimus Prime]

erm im sorry to our east its very cold indeed so cold its been making headlines theres been nothing but cold for weeks apon weeks.

Those areas that were very cold have warmed up substantially since then

[Southender]

[kold weather]

UKMO 120hrs chart is a real beauty of a cold shot its got to be said, can be no doubt that its a very snowy flow, upper high looks in a superb position.

Also worth noting the 12z GFS is somewhat slower evolution then the 06z run...and a MUCH better run for the longer term of the evolution because the jet is starting to undercut again. Think this will overall be a very stonking run!

[Optimus Prime]

UKMO 120hrs chart is a real beauty of a cold shot its got to be said, can be no doubt that its a very snowy flow, upper high looks in a superb position.

Also worth noting the 12z GFS is somewhat slower evolution then the 06z run...and a MUCH better run for the longer term of the evolution because the jet is starting to undercut again. Think this will overall be a very stonking run!

Easterlies for widespread snow don't get much better than this!

[kold weather]

Thank you very much UKMO 12z! I'll bank that run now please!

T+144: http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?04-17

Wow and if I thought the 120hrs was a good un, the 144hrs is quite unreal, thicknesses a good bit below 510 in the SE, would be a very snowy evolution for a good part of the country I'm pretty sure!

[Weathizard]

Are we allowed to start getting excited yet?

[igloo]

It really is amazing considering the forecast of 2 days ago, astonishing that charts can turn around from 18C above 0 to struggling to get above zero.

Also, by 'east' would you put south east in the same bracket?

yes just shows anything after +144 is guess work todays UKMO and GFS runs are very near identical at +120 i would be surprised if this evenings ECM run will look in different at +120 looking good now for a cold snap net week

[Geordiesnow]

Really good 12Z runs from the UKMO and GFS, both showing a strong easterly flow, uppers are certainly cold that for sure! I don't think many on here would really care if we get uppers of -10 or -15 aslong it snows.

Now we just need the ECM to come on board with its easterly flow being stronger and longer lasting than it was on this mornings run, something similar to yesterdays 12Z run will do!

[Southender]

Jeeez, what a stonking run from UKMO and GFS this afternoon.

Any of those verified, it would easily match the two cold spells we have had this winter...

Is it ramp time yet?

Hope the NW servers are ready for overload!

Edited February 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper