Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[GraemeB]

Definitely getting colder from the weekend, but doesn't look to be much in the way of ppn of a snow variety...

The 0z is a bit of a mare to be honest - my anti-toorp pills aren't working this morning.

[Snowplough33]

Definitely getting colder from the weekend, but doesn't look to be much in the way of ppn of a snow variety...

The 0z is a bit of a mare to be honest - my anti-toorp pills aren't working this morning.

I need some too, its quite a change in all the charts. Still can change the other way again aswell..........I need staws to clutch at.

The cold still comes in sowho knows

[Guest]

Definitely getting colder from the weekend, but doesn't look to be much in the way of ppn of a snow variety...

I wouldn't worry about the models showing a lack of precip for two reasons Graeme

Firstly, precip can and will pop up from anywhere even if the charts aren't too enticing and anyway there are charts like this that show there will be troughs popping up to bring us showers:

Secondly, it looks to me as if the weather between now and the cold spell is going to be cloudy, foggy (fog before a cold spell, again??!) and dreich so some cold sunshine could be quite welcome by then :)

[Stuart]

we do well with snow with the east wind

[GraemeB]

Ah yes the pills are kicking in

If I recall correctly - the last snowy outbreak in December, was pretty much "missed" until the day before wasn't it (forgive my memory, however I was in Australia at the time )

So, the anti-toorpness is working The fax chart above makes for nice viewing, so will wait in the hope that the 6z brings us at the very least something more snowy

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmmm, not so great output for snow this morning - http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?05-06 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-120.GIF?05-12 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-120.png?0

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-120.png GEM still goes for the undercut.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100205/00/t850Fife.png Ensembles still very cold nonetheless, but we do need the pattern to shift a bit further northwards for us. The longer term suggests the high will retrogress to Greenland, but I expect this is likely to change depending on the positioning of the shortwave http://cirrus.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100205/00/h500slpmean-258.png

Generally, though, we either need an undercut or the shortwave slightly further north west than currently modelled to give an proper easterly/northeasterly.

I wouldn't worry about the models showing a lack of precip for two reasons Graeme

Firstly, precip can and will pop up from anywhere even if the charts aren't too enticing and anyway there are charts like this that show there will be troughs popping up to bring us showers:

Secondly, it looks to me as if the weather between now and the cold spell is going to be cloudy, foggy (fog before a cold spell, again??!) and dreich so some cold sunshine could be quite welcome by then

True enough. As long as the high is not sitting slap bang over us there will always be unexpected little troughs/features, but that Fax chart is slightly out of date sadly.

[Guest]

True enough. As long as the high is not sitting slap bang over us there will always be unexpected little troughs/features, but that Fax chart is slightly out of date sadly.

It'll be fine. Wait for some upgrades later on today. Snow drifts all round?

As for the FAX chart, I didn't even check the age of it, it's too early in the morning LS

[LomondSnowstorm]

It'll be fine. Wait for some upgrades later on today. Snow drifts all round?

As for the FAX chart, I didn't even check the age of it, it's too early in the morning LS

Lol. We are reliant on this shortwave moving further west, but is there any reason why this won't happen? Not really. Not sure if the GEM is onto something with the undercutting as it has been showing it for a few days now but the other models are ignoring it!

Cold and dry beats murk, and that's the worst case scenario - no atlantic fightback likely for at least a week or so.

[Snowplough33]

Does anyone know when UKMO update there last two FAX charts. Will be intresting to see if the little front is still there or if the HP has pushed it south or killed it.

[Blizzardo]

Does anyone know when UKMO update there last two FAX charts. Will be intresting to see if the little front is still there or if the HP has pushed it south or killed it.

I think this chart timetable is still up to date so I think that the last faxes come out after 10.30am.

Availability Time Issuer Time Base

03:30 - 04:45 GFS 00z

06:00 ECM 00z

06:30 NOGAPS 00z

06:30 UKMO 00z

09:30 - 10:45 GFS 06z

10:30 FAX 00z

15:30 - 16:45 GFS 12z

17:30 UKMO 12z

18:00 ECM 12z

18:30 NOGAPS 12z

19:00 JMA 12z

21:30 - 22:45 GFS 18z

22:30 FAX 12z

Edit: as per Nick Sussex reply on the model thread dont think they do the daytime fax update anymore.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Snowplough33]

I think this chart timetable is still up to date so I think that the last faxes come out after 10.30am.

Availability Time Issuer Time Base

03:30 - 04:45 GFS 00z

06:00 ECM 00z

06:30 NOGAPS 00z

06:30 UKMO 00z

09:30 - 10:45 GFS 06z

10:30 FAX 00z

15:30 - 16:45 GFS 12z

17:30 UKMO 12z

18:00 ECM 12z

18:30 NOGAPS 12z

19:00 JMA 12z

21:30 - 22:45 GFS 18z

22:30 FAX 12z

Thanks for that. Gonna be a nail biteing couple of days. Sadly I suspect there will be some degree of TOORPing

[Gilly]

Does anyone know when UKMO update there last two FAX charts. Will be intresting to see if the little front is still there or if the HP has pushed it south or killed it.

Agreed. The last two FAX charts are updated late evening Snowplough.

I am still on this fence and its getting uncomfortable

Watching the cold..........but still unsure of the snow aspect. By tomorrow we will have a much better idea of what will happen.....and again that will mean these scenarios never seem to be clear until within a much closer time frame.

[Snowplough33]

Agreed. The last two FAX charts are updated late evening Snowplough.

I am still on this fence and its getting uncomfortable:crazy:

Watching the cold..........but still unsure of the snow aspect. By tomorrow we will have a much better idea of what will happen.....and again that will mean these scenarios never seem to be clear until within a much closer time frame.

Yeh me too. The deep cold appears to have slipped south across France. We need the undercut to happen. Anything is possible. Its still 4 days away.Look how the charts have flipped run to run.

[Snowplough33]

Here comes the GSF. Is it just me or is the air to our east not a much more general cold than on previous runs. Everything to our east and north is blue (cold or deep cold). Would have posted this on MT, but probily be deleted for silly question.

[snowy owl]

If I beat the picnic bench, there will be lots of photos for sure. No probs.

Thanks SS and Lady P appreciate it.

see you all soon AND most importantly Enjoy the snow.

Best wishes

Snowy

[lorenzo]

Wow, I've missed all the carnage this week . Busy at work and with the family.

Logged in this morning to find new acronyms??? The model thread gone to pieces.

And the same issues on the charts - upgrades and downgrades - monster cold in FI, moving forward to +48 hrs then moving away again Unreal !

Looks like the latest runs from this morning place us in another stalemate position. A waiting game now to see hopefully another upgrade.

I can see a 3 day spell of ensembles providing consistent decent upper level temps, other than that the models are in some degree of conflict over the level of blocking and this mornings output seems to be on the cusp of resolving that pattern.

Here's to some clarity and unity on the models by 18z if not Saturday evening.

[blitzen]

I am a bit more comfortable this morning given that the high out to our north west is not as close as it was on last night's 18z. A much better draw of cold uppers then ensues from the east and by T144 is fully in situ. Although precipitation for us is not favourable at the moment, (more for south and south east) As Catch states, best to get the cold here first and worry about that later. Things still on track for the cold starting to affect us by sunday tho' with a slight snow risk. All in all, much happier this morning. Speaking of which, absolutely tipping it down here!

Edited February 5, 2010 by Blitzen

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Morning all. Wet and miserable here. Drizzle and 4.1 C.

Lets hope that's the last of the mild weather we'll see for a while.

As for the model thread etc. Just greatly saddens me to see such childish bickering. I think I'll just forget that thread exists and stick to the friendly banter in here. This thread is a lot of fun and we have our resident experts (e.g. LSS) so no need to go anywhere near the spoilt child thread. Pity, as there are some sensible, intelligent people in there, but they get drowned out by all the insults etc.

Setting off for the Highlands soon. Will try to report on conditions up Cairngorm and get some photos for you all.

Cheers and here's to next week

[LadyPakal]

A grey driech day here too.

As for the model thread - my list of ignores grows ever longer... it's the only way to deal with the constant stream of rubbish from certain posters. I am really glad I'm not a mod, is all I'll say - if I were, I don't think the thread would have many posts left after I'd modded it!

[sunny starry skies]

I'd have thought it.

Considering your crusade on the (A)GW thread - you people make me sick.

I think that's un-called for Mondy. I'm on no 'crusade', I like cold snowy weather like most people on here, and as I've said on the relevant thread, would dearly like to be wrong about AGW. If you're going to give me abuse for my views on another thread, at least justify why, on the relevant thread! It's that kind of baseless comment that makes me sick and feel less inclined to contribute to what's otherwise a great forum for Scottish weather watching. :lol:

Back on topic, it feels less cold in Edinburgh today, and definitely looks promising for something wintry next week, though I do wonder if it'll be a case of the high pressure being a little too close by, leading to quiet frosts?

Shugg - I missed the 23rd Dec Edinburgh event as I was up north for Christmas - pity as that sounded amazing. 6" in central Edinburgh? Nuts!

sss

[Methuselah]

Yes Monds. That was OTT...Let's keep the Scottish thread the best, eh? :lol:

[Norrance]

The high is looking stronger to the North. Hopefully it won't come too close or pull the winds to much North of East. [For us in East Central Scotland that is.]

[Snowplough33]

The wind is much better for us on this run. More east in it. Certainly to start with the HP is fairly far away (hopefully). So this run gives us the cold uppers and for some time good wind direction.

[Guest]

The wind is much better for us on this run. More east in it. Certainly to start with the HP is fairly far away (hopefully). So this run gives us the cold uppers and for some time good wind direction.

I'm glad you posted this as I thought I was imagining things. I think that the chopping and changing between runs and across the models just shows that the cold spell is still not set in terms of snow/how cold/how long. The 12Z looks more like the FAX chart I posted this morning I think. I wonder what the ensembles will bring?

At least this cloudy mushy murk should leave sometime soon, once the colder air arrives. I don't mind murk and grey if it is frosty/icy but today is just horrible. Did anyone see any sun today??

[Snowplough33]

I'm glad you posted this as I thought I was imagining things. I think that the chopping and changing between runs and across the models just shows that the cold spell is still not set in terms of snow/how cold/how long. The 12Z looks more like the FAX chart I posted this morning I think. I wonder what the ensembles will bring?

At least this cloudy mushy murk should leave sometime soon, once the colder air arrives. I don't mind murk and grey if it is frosty/icy but today is just horrible. Did anyone see any sun today??

I read the sun today if that helps.