Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

[Guest]

Aye, a good point Catch

It could be other things like more Buses, Trucks and Cars on busier City Centre streets?

Out door sports activities with lighting etc, central heating in housing that is not well insulated?

Who knows eh

Big Innes

I feel a topic for a PhD coming on...

It's certainly a subject that could be debated and assessed until the cows come home.

With out wanting to put any spoils on the POSSIBLE upcomming cold spell, it looks to me to be developing into a Northerly outbreak, not Easterly. I am sure yesterday this was starting as a South Easterly, then it went East and now its North (perhaps North East??). Great snow potential for Aberdeen and North Highland but for us to the south of that...............

Does still look just to the east of north..........fingers crossed!!

Actually GSF brings it in like that but UKMO still has the SE going Easterly............so I will just shut up

Just to add to the confusion, I thought it was looking rather more NE than anything else For example, the GFS ensemble mean for +144hrs is a definite easterly:

While the operational run is looking like a slack NE flow:

Since the operational run should be the most accurate I would then move more to the NE version than the E suggested by the mean. But as I always say, what would I know :lol: I should put that in my sig!

[Big Innes Madori]

I feel a topic for a PhD coming on...

It's certainly a subject that could be debated and assessed until the cows come home.

PhD !

Your taking that too far noo wiz that no a band fae the 80's

But aye, it is an interesting issue though

Big Innes

Edited February 4, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[GraemeB]

Dont mind if I do

Have pasted over the last reply

Quote

Lovely GFS run this morning - the cold has been brought in sooner, maybe through Tuesday evening into Wed, but it looks more NE'ly to me ?

Interesting, I think, the 528dam dissects us right through the middle on Tuesday night - that's been a few runs now that the trend is heading towards something rather exciting early next week.

TOORP still on high alert though.

:lol:

Hehe - I called a NE'ly this morning

[Guest]

Phd !

Your taking that too far noo wiz that no a band fae the 80's

But aye, it is an interesting issue though

Big Innes

Seriously Big Innes, I wouldn't be surprised if that one has been a PhD topic.

As for the band:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D._(band)

Ph.D. are a British group that managed a UK Top 10 hit with "I Won't Let You Down" in April 1982, although the song had been a hit the previous year throughout Europe. The band took its name from the initial letters of its three members' surnames; Phillips, Hymas and Diamond.

It is just as well they weren't called Williams, Anderson, Nickell and Kent.

[Snowplough33]

A true NE is OK for most of us, but it needs to be very slightly off the sea, but anything to the north of that is a TOORPing disaster for most in Dundee, Edinburgh ect. NE Scotland, the far North and extreme SE get away with it

[Big Innes Madori]

Seriously Big Innes, I wouldn't be surprised if that one has been a PhD topic.

As for the band:

http://en.wikipedia....ki/Ph.D._(band)

It is just as well they weren't called Williams, Anderson, Nickell and Kent.

Lol

Big Innes

[Guest]

A true NE is OK for most of us, but it needs to be very slightly off the sea, but anything to the north of that is a TOORPing disaster for most in Dundee, Edinburgh ect. NE Scotland, the far North and extreme SE get away with it

It'll be fine, 5 polar lows sweeping the country within 72 hours. We'll not be caring. Conditions are once again favourable for PLs from Sunday onwards :lol:

Typical that when I stopped going on about them SatRep picked out two in quick succession Now that I am talking about PL conditions I have probably jinxed the chances.

[LadyPakal]

Seriously Big Innes, I wouldn't be surprised if that one has been a PhD topic.

As for the band:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D._(band)

It is just as well they weren't called Williams, Anderson, Nickell and Kent.

There's always one that lowers the tone! usually it's me

[Guest]

There's always one that lowers the tone! usually it's me

There's a tone in here?? :lol:

I thought that was someone breaking wind.

[Snowplough33]

There's a tone in here??

I thought that was someone breaking wind.

You have opened the flood gates there, but I shall resist the amusing pictures and one liners

[NorthernRab]

Aye, a good point Catch

It could be other things like more Buses, Trucks and Cars on busier City Centre streets?

Out door sports activities with lighting etc, central heating in housing that is not well insulated?

Who knows eh

Big Innes

Aye, given the population change I guess it will be harder for Edinburgh, Inverness and Aberdeen (they've grown, especially the wee Highland town of sneck :lol:) to beat their records but easier for Glasgow and Dundee (which have become slightly smaller). Of course, things aren't so clear cut and I don't think it would make a huge amount of difference anyway, so long as conditions are ideal.

[Big Innes Madori]

There's a tone in here??

I thought that was someone breaking wind.

As long as it's a Frigid Easterly, Catch

Don't want em warm Souwesterlies now, do we

Big Innes

Edited February 4, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[LadyPakal]

There's a tone in here?? :lol:

Sorry, forgot where I was for a moment....!

[Cheggers]

MTM starting, GFS and UKMO look like upgrades!!!

[Snowplough33]

OMG...........too good to be true. UKMO 12z run is very good too. Possible even better as more easterly from slightly earlier.

MTM starting, GFS and UKMO look like upgrades!!!

MTM???........hopefully another amusing abreviation

[Snowlover2]

MTM...Model thread mania?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Ok, I called it 80% last night, now I'm going for around 99% chance of an easterly/northeasterly. As long as uppers are around -10 or below that and the wind isn't blowing showers over 100 miles/over mountains then anywhere on the east coast is getting a dumping. -5 uppers start to move in on Sunday night so possibly some wintry (not all of snow!) showers overnight, and even the GFS shows this http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/84/ukprec.png

Monday perhaps sees slightly fewer showers away from the northeast and borders due to uppers around -7/-8 and the flow from the northeast, BUT overnight is when the real interest starts.

The shortwave over Scandi pushes west for a time, bringing a more persistant band of snow and freezing uppers http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/114/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/117/ukprec.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/123/h850t850eu.png

By Wednesday, our favourite ENE flow returns http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/138/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/138/h850t850eu.png

Note the parallels: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780212.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00219780212.gif

Same uppers, same flow, same snow?

It continues into Thursday also, though after this is definitely FI http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100204/12/165/h500slp.png

UKMO backs it up http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW120-21.GIF?04-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?04-17

If the shortwave stays a bit further north though,which is still plausible at this range, there could be some really serious snowfall right across Scotland, but by that same token if the pattern is shunted southwards, we'll more than likely end up under a cold but dry high pressure system.

The GEM is slightly better in the long term IMO, with that channel low enhancing the easterly and allowing it to last longer while still bringing in the shortwave http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-0-132.png

Anyway, just good to be back to nailed on cold and almost nailed on snowfall! Mind you, the last few days were hardly warm!

The big dumping for Dundee/Edinburgh MIGHT just be on its way next week. The details are a bit up in the air at the moment but those charts have huge potential, moreso than at the start of the last spell when there was just a 24 hour easterly followed by a northerly, though as it turned out that trough was about as far from dry as Lewis is from Hawick!

LS

MTM...Model thread mania?

Meltdown probably, or should I say freeze!

[Snowplough33]

Ok, I called it 80% last night, now I'm going for around 99% chance of an easterly/northeasterly. As long as uppers are around -10 or below that and the wind isn't blowing showers over 100 miles/over mountains then anywhere on the east coast is getting a dumping. -5 uppers start to move in on Sunday night so possibly some wintry (not all of snow!) showers overnight, and even the GFS shows this http://cirrus.netwea...2/84/ukprec.png

Monday perhaps sees slightly fewer showers away from the northeast and borders due to uppers around -7/-8 and the flow from the northeast, BUT overnight is when the real interest starts.

The shortwave over Scandi pushes west for a time, bringing a more persistant band of snow and freezing uppers http://cirrus.netwea...114/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../117/ukprec.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

By Wednesday, our favourite ENE flow returns http://cirrus.netwea...138/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Note the parallels: http://www.wetterzen...00119780212.gif http://www.wetterzen...00219780212.gif

Same uppers, same flow, same snow?

It continues into Thursday also, though after this is definitely FI http://cirrus.netwea...165/h500slp.png

UKMO backs it up http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?04-17

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?04-17

If the shortwave stays a bit further north though,which is still plausible at this range, there could be some really serious snowfall right across Scotland, but by that same token if the pattern is shunted southwards, we'll more than likely end up under a cold but dry high pressure system.

The GEM is slightly better in the long term IMO, with that channel low enhancing the easterly and allowing it to last longer while still bringing in the shortwave http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-132.png

Anyway, just good to be back to nailed on cold and almost nailed on snowfall! Mind you, the last few days were hardly warm!

The big dumping for Dundee/Edinburgh MIGHT just be on its way next week. The details are a bit up in the air at the moment but those charts have huge potential, moreso than at the start of the last spell when there was just a 24 hour easterly followed by a northerly, though as it turned out that trough was about as far from dry as Lewis is from Hawick!

LS

Meltdown probably, or should I say freeze!

Fab summary...........all the things we want to hear. Its nearly close enough to start getting excited.

[Big Innes Madori]

Ok, I called it 80% last night, now I'm going for around 99% chance of an easterly/northeasterly. As long as uppers are around -10 or below that and the wind isn't blowing showers over 100 miles/over mountains then anywhere on the east coast is getting a dumping. -5 uppers start to move in on Sunday night so possibly some wintry (not all of snow!) showers overnight, and even the GFS shows this http://cirrus.netwea...2/84/ukprec.png

Monday perhaps sees slightly fewer showers away from the northeast and borders due to uppers around -7/-8 and the flow from the northeast, BUT overnight is when the real interest starts.

The shortwave over Scandi pushes west for a time, bringing a more persistant band of snow and freezing uppers http://cirrus.netwea...114/h500slp.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../117/ukprec.png

http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

By Wednesday, our favourite ENE flow returns http://cirrus.netwea...138/h500slp.png http://cirrus.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Note the parallels: http://www.wetterzen...00119780212.gif http://www.wetterzen...00219780212.gif

Same uppers, same flow, same snow?

It continues into Thursday also, though after this is definitely FI http://cirrus.netwea...165/h500slp.png

UKMO backs it up http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?04-17

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?04-17

If the shortwave stays a bit further north though,which is still plausible at this range, there could be some really serious snowfall right across Scotland, but by that same token if the pattern is shunted southwards, we'll more than likely end up under a cold but dry high pressure system.

The GEM is slightly better in the long term IMO, with that channel low enhancing the easterly and allowing it to last longer while still bringing in the shortwave http://91.121.94.83/...n/gem-0-132.png

Anyway, just good to be back to nailed on cold and almost nailed on snowfall! Mind you, the last few days were hardly warm!

The big dumping for Dundee/Edinburgh MIGHT just be on its way next week. The details are a bit up in the air at the moment but those charts have huge potential, moreso than at the start of the last spell when there was just a 24 hour easterly followed by a northerly, though as it turned out that trough was about as far from dry as Lewis is from Hawick!

LS

Hi LS,

Lets hope that us Fifers can do better from this than we did last February, eh

"The big dumping for Dundee/Edinburgh"

Whoar's ma snaw

Big Innes

Edited February 4, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[GraemeB]

Wow.

Simply wow.

I see they're charging admission to get into the Model thread now

Just off to examine the charts again...

[Methuselah]

A rampede is certainly on the cards, methinks? I'm already dreaming of streamers running in down from Cromarty...

[Snowplough33]

A rampede is certainly on the cards, methinks? I'm already dreaming of streamers running in down from Cromarty...

THe horror is thats 2 days of charts simply for drooling on...........and sooner or later there will be the downgrade chart and Mondy will have to "post the pram" again.

But yes, I too am dreaming of streamers, convective snow, frontal snow...........

Edited February 4, 2010 by Snowplough33

[LomondSnowstorm]

Remember upgrades are just as likely as downgrades - or am I expecting far too much now!

[Snowplough33]

Remember upgrades are just as likely as downgrades - or am I expecting far too much now!

It bearly could upgrade

[Methuselah]

It bearly could upgrade

Polarbearly perhaps???