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Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:

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Please continue...Previous: http://forum.netweat...4entry1763834

Dont mind if I do :rolleyes:

Have pasted over the last reply :rolleyes:

Lovely GFS run this morning - the cold has been brought in sooner, maybe through Tuesday evening into Wed, but it looks more NE'ly to me ?

Interesting, I think, the 528dam dissects us right through the middle on Tuesday night - that's been a few runs now that the trend is heading towards something rather exciting early next week.

TOORP still on high alert though.

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I wonder where the first wobble will come from today. The safe money is on a stonking 06z GFS followed by a stinking 12z GFS. TOORP to reach epic proportions by 4.21pm. Nothing wrong with a bit of TOORP per se, as long as you laugh at yourself afterwards :rolleyes: :rolleyes: Indeed, sometimes TOORP is allowable, especially if you are suffering from a bit of MUPPET (Model Underperformance Preceding Projectiley Ejected Toys).

I am looking forward to the walk to school this morning. An inch or two of fresh crumply snow, temperature is a glorious 0C :)

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Lol at MUPPET. :rolleyes:

We had about 3-4cm in Stirling, so happy overall with the event last night, moreso probably because I suffered a brief spell of Toorp when the initial front fizzled out.....

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No snow up here last night; although, after too much vodka, I wouldn't really know... :rolleyes:

:) @ MUPPET! :rolleyes:

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Lol at MUPPET. :D

We had about 3-4cm in Stirling, so happy overall with the event last night, moreso probably because I suffered a brief spell of Toorp when the initial front fizzled out.....

I was TOORPed in at 4.30pm yesterday!!!

That's the Met-O moved up to 1/4 this winter for snow weather warnings in this area which is an improvement too...

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5cm of snow in Bishopbriggs from yesterday evenings front. Temperature still 0c. Getting slushy in the West End. I was driving in Glasgow last night and there was some quite bad road conditions with single lane on the motorway and a temporary covering covering when going over the Kingston Bridge - good fun though.

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No snow up here last night; although, after too much vodka, I wouldn't really know... :wallbash:

:lol: @ MUPPET! :lol:

No you missed nothing last night.............in fact come 6am it was positively balmy at 4C!!!! Dropped back to 2.5C now

:clap:Toorped and Muppet.......Love the new terms chaps

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Morning all.

Temp and dew point both 2.5c with a SW wind and light rain. Last night was brilliant wasn't it? I had to go out in the middle of the heavy stuff and was quite surprised with the amount of ice I had to clear from the car windscreen under the snow. Things still look to be on track with the overnights so just about to brave a look at the 6z. After which I hope I will be avoiding any TOORPs and MUPPETs.

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I would add, I doubt next weeks very cold snap will be of very long duration or with particularly much precipitation.

Also still think we will continue in this moderate cold for the rest of Feb too.....maybe with the odd couple of days of snow potential.......perhaps i am too pessimistic.

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Would someone be good enough to clue me in to the TOORP and MUPPET joke. :wallbash:

SS2

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I would add, I doubt next weeks very cold snap will be of very long duration or with particularly much precipitation.

Also still think we will continue in this moderate cold for the rest of Feb too.....maybe with the odd couple of days of snow potential.......perhaps i am too pessimistic.

That would pass for cautious optimism in most parts of Scotland :lol: :lol: :wallbash:

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6z still playing ball!post-1989-12652786981588_thumb.png :wallbash:

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Would someone be good enough to clue me in to the TOORP and MUPPET joke. :wallbash:

SS2

TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram), MTM (Model thread Meltdown), MUPPET (Model Underperformance Preceding Projectiley Ejected Toys).

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TOORP (Toys oot o Ra Pram), MTM (Model thread Meltdown), MUPPET (Model Underperformance Preceding Projectiley Ejected Toys).

Thanks LadyPakal, that is brilliant, don't think they would appreciate that on the model output thread.

SS2

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Thanks LadyPakal, that is brilliant, don't think they would appreciate that on the model output thread.

SS2

No, they all take themselves far too seriously on there (with the odd exception :) ).

I only ever go there now in :) mode. I sneek in, get what I want and sneak out without ever being spotted...

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If that OP run is not a cold outlier I would expect a full scale rampede by lunchtime. That ridiculous F.I. chart I have on my laptop (850 temps of -16C) might not be so out of place after all :)

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I would add, I doubt next weeks very cold snap will be of very long duration or with particularly much precipitation.

Also still think we will continue in this moderate cold for the rest of Feb too.....maybe with the odd couple of days of snow potential.......perhaps i am too pessimistic.

I'd be surprised now if a cold or very cold spell doesnt develop next week. The models really struggle with big northern blocking scenarios as has been evident over the last 2 weeks. The chopping and changing showed that it could have gone either way i.e. mild or cold.

There does now seem like too much agreement on cold and getting colder next week for there to be any massive shift now to a mild outlook.

In terms of how long it would last its hard to say but I cant see anything that suggests mild winning out in the medium term (maybe some hints in deep FI on the GFS 06z) but to far away to worry about this yet.

On the snow potential I'd say it looks better than at the same stage before the last cold spell. As many others have said when you have -10c uppers moving in across the North Sea it would be rare not to get some snow showers or longer period of snow from this. East will always be more favoured in these situations.

The first effects of this cold spell could be felt in Scotland as early as Sunday with the deeper cold moving in as early as Monday or Tuesday.

I dont think its nailed on yet for deep cold but not far off.

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I am loving this winter, but where are the record lows for the cities? Granted such lows are always rogues and you can't tell when they'll occur (sometimes outwith the 'big freezes') but what we really need now to completely immortalise this winter is at least one of the Sneck, Deen, Auld Reekie, The Go or the Dee to beat their record lows!

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I am loving this winter, but where are the record lows for the cities? Granted such lows are always rogues and you can't tell when they'll occur (sometimes outwith the 'big freezes') but what we really need now to completely immortalise this winter is at least one of the Sneck, Deen, Auld Reekie, The Go or the Dee to beat their record lows!

A' right Rab?

I think that the Cities are probably so big now that they create a lot of urban heat and this may well have an impact on any minimum low temps recorded in the Toun Centres?closedeyes.gif

Liked yer wee quip on the model thread regarding the lack or seldom mention of any Nothern areas when the cald wither looks tae be oan drinks.gif

But to be fair to TEITS he does put a hell of a time and effort in to searching for his Beasterly, so I can understand his IMBY tendencies whistling.gif

Big Innes

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I think that the Cities are probably so big now that they create a lot of urban heat and this may well have an impact on any minimum low temps recorded in the Toun Centres?closedeyes.gif

I'm with you on your logic there Big Innes :) but Glasgow's record was set in 1995 and I don't think there's been any increase in the size of the city since then. To put my student hat on I'd also say that de-industrialisation and de-urbanisation should have spread the effect of urban heat to a considerable degree too. So in many ways city centres should be colder than they were 100 years ago while outer areas should be warmer.

:whistling: :lol:

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We are travelling up to Carrbridge for a week tomorrow evening, so I am hoping that the model's are correct, just to see what proper snow looks like.pardon.gif

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I'm with you on your logic there Big Innes smile.gif but Glasgow's record was set in 1995 and I don't think there's been any increase in the size of the city since then. To put my student hat on I'd also say that de-industrialisation and de-urbanisation should have spread the effect of urban heat to a considerable degree too. So in many ways city centres should be colder than they were 100 years ago while outer areas should be warmer.

pardon.giflaugh.gif

Aye, a good point Catch dry.gif

It could be other things like more Buses, Trucks and Cars on busier City Centre streets?

Out door sports activities with lighting etc, central heating in housing that is not well insulated?

Who knows eh whistling.gif

Big Innes

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With out wanting to put any spoils on the POSSIBLE upcomming cold spell, it looks to me to be developing into a Northerly outbreak, not Easterly. I am sure yesterday this was starting as a South Easterly, then it went East and now its North (perhaps North East??). Great snow potential for Aberdeen and North Highland but for us to the south of that...............whistling.gifwhistling.gif

Does still look just to the east of north..........fingers crossed!!

Actually GSF brings it in like that but UKMO still has the SE going Easterly............so I will just shut upsorry.gif

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We are travelling up to Carrbridge for a week tomorrow evening, so I am hoping that the model's are correct, just to see what proper snow looks like.pardon.gif

There's plenty snow up in the Carrbridge area just now. Should be chilly next week!!!

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