Model Output Discussion:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

That ECM t+72 will do fine. Not taking much notice of anything beyond that.

You might quite like it up to t120 though anyway

[Alex95]

The ECM is turning into a bitter run, but what's significant is that the pattern is set in stone from +72 on that run, which is the first frame! Surely we are getting to the point where the time scale is so short that the model flipping will stop, so whilst it isn't a done deal yet, if the models show a beasterly tomorrow we can feel safer, provided the progged easterly isn't put back.

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM very good out to T+120

[Bolton67]

You might quite like it up to t120 though anyway

my God!!

[Iceberg]

The ECM is turning into a bitter run, but what's significant is that the pattern is set in stone from +72 on that run, which is the first frame! Surely we are getting to the point where the time scale is so short that the model flipping will stop, so whilst it isn't a done deal yet, if the models show a beasterly tomorrow we can feel safer, provided the progged easterly isn't put back.

I think we are past the initial flip flop phase, an easterly of some sort is now very very likely, now we get down to the detail of how potent ?, short waves ?, etc.

[Weathizard]

Is it me or does it seem to be 'coming together', so to speak?

Edited February 3, 2010 by Weathizard

[snowray]

Full agreement for the 1st time then it would seem by the big 3 at T120, Spot on!

Is this it then I wonder, T144 from ECM could be big!

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Game set & match Cold-

Widespread snow in the NE at day 5 & heavy snow stalling out in the South & SW on the same day-

Feb 1996 redux morphing into Jan 85-

S

[cooling climate]

In a post yesterday evening I mused that another option could be that the dam

may just break and in will come the cold and fingers crossed this looks to be the

case this evening.

One other point, which I find quite amusing I have read posts saying maybe one

last fling of winter and I keep looking at the calander thinking its the end of

February or well into March. Theres lots of winter left its whether we get the right

weather or not.

Just seen the ECM out to t120 and it looks like it wants to join the party. It will be

interesting to see if it follows the UKMO and the GFS control run and sends the

energy over Scandinavia south. Almost a given I would have thought.

[len]

In years of watching this thread I've never seen NOGAPS mentioned so often on one page!

I wonder?.....Is it, by any chance, showing something people want to see????

Let's try to be consistent & objective.

[SP1986]

I'm actually not going to comment on the models now for a while - I don't believe it's past the jitters and I'm still not convinced of cold easterlies (yet) but any comment contrary to an easterly now would get me lynched by the net-weather cold loving community.

Good luck with the evolution anyway.

[Ben_Cambs]

Is it me or does it seem to be 'coming together', so to speak?

Yes they are, the major three models are agreeing up to T+120 on the 12z! I cant wait for the T+144 chart on ECM!

[Nick L]

My word, +144 is a beauty...

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM at T+144 a beauty:

Edit: Wow, me and Nick posted the exact same words at the exact same time

Edited February 3, 2010 by Snowman0697

[SMU]

BITTER air moving west-

S

[TEITS]

Did someone nuke the atlantic LP like I suggested yesterday.

Enjoy the rest of the show.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Game set & match Cold-

Widespread snow in the NE at day 5 & heavy snow stalling out in the South & SW on the same day-

Feb 1996 redux morphing into Jan 85-

S

Sorry - won't copy any more charts, everyone is doing the same. Model agreement early on which is the main thing, Hopefully it all holds together still in the morning¬

Edited February 3, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Paul T]

not bad

[yamkin]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Game set & match Cold-

Widespread snow in the NE at day 5 & heavy snow stalling out in the South & SW on the same day-

Feb 1996 redux morphing into Jan 85-

S

Steve, JMA 12Z 144h, 168h, 192h are

[Mark Bayley]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Game set & match Cold-

Widespread snow in the NE at day 5 & heavy snow stalling out in the South & SW on the same day-

Feb 1996 redux morphing into Jan 85-

S

Yes, colder air starting to filter into Scotland and the North East by T120, spreading across the rest of the UK by T144

I would rather see a few more model runs which are consistent, before i start to get to interested Already had 2cm of snow tonight!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Just like to add that whilst the models (and a good number of folk on here) have flip-flopped this way and that over the past number of days, the METO have been pretty damn consistent with regards to a colder mid-term outlook, so never mind back-slapping on here, maybe they deserve some credit also ?

Personally I don't accept the 'it's a difficult setup so the models are bound to struggle' argument. Either models are capable of handling all types of set-up with a reasonable amount of consistency and accuracy, or they're barely worth the computing power they consume............ And basing discussions on them at anything beyond about T48 is fairly pointless, because they aren't even managing to show consistent 'trends'.

[TEITS]

my God!!

Did you keep the PM I sent you.

My word what a run so far.

[Jason H]

I'm actually not going to comment on the models now for a while - I don't believe it's past the jitters and I'm still not convinced of cold easterlies (yet) but any comment contrary to an easterly now would get me lynched by the net-weather cold loving community.

Good luck with the evolution anyway.

I'm not convinced yet either, but you cannot deny the charts (ECM, UKMO) are now showing a colder outlook. I seem to remember similar postings from you prior to the previous cold spell. I'd genuinely be interested to hear your comments with regards to a contrary viewpoint.

[SMU]

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS cmon-

Channel low of EPIC proportions----- Please varify im on holiday from Sat for 10 days!!!!!!!!!!!!!

S

[Slinky]

To be fair if the models are still showing what they are at the moment Friday evening sat morning then I shall become excited

There is a very very fine line between cold and mild at the moment, and it would not surprise me if we see a few more changes to output yet.......