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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    To recap, banks got rich then went bust, state helped banks but then nearly went bust themselves - states citizens to pay via higher taxation. In the last three years we have witnessed the greatest transfer of wealth to the rich from the poor ever seen yet the man in the street cannot see he has been swindled.

    Absolutely right, but now they're nests are carefully feathered and they've done their best to make sure they're insulated from the worst of what's going to happen, who's left to take the kicking............ Oh, that'll be you and me and everyone else then.

    A failure of an ideology which will make the collapse of communism look like a drop in the ocean

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sickening isn't it. I'd luv to string these greasy sleaze bags up.

    I wouldn't say it's a failure the system is working perfectly in one sense and is adjusting it's just the people who abused the system that aren't suffering the full effects.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Would now be a good time to say that I am due to join one of these sleazy banks full time next month....(oops)

    I still don't think there is anything truely fundamental wrong, it's still a process of de-leveraging, risk reduction and lack of liquidity.

    The actions of Europe have just unfortunately poured oil on a small fire, as soon as they let Greece default and the other economies get their act together it should start to improve a little.

    There is an estimated 100Bn in potential sovereign debt losses in Europe, it will be the same banks that lost big time over CDS/CDO exposure (i.e the ones with cr&p risk management).

    The likes of HSBC, Barclays and JPM shouldn't do too badly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Concern amongst the markets still that Spain is able/has the will to deliver the spending reductions needed particularly over public service pension reform.

    Also rising concern that France might be a problem and next on the stability hit list after Spain again particularly due to public sector pension costs.

    Pensions costs lead to structural debt problems rather than the less worrying cyclical costs of recession.

    There is also concern that French banks are the biggest holds of the club med Euro debts.

    No announcement from Europe over the weekend to carm markets so I fear another rough ride again this week.

    News that the ECB was intervening in the Euro FX Markets on Friday to prop up the Euro off the back of a left trouser leged off Obama who's complaining about the Euro devaluation impacting on US export figures helped to lift US indexes towards close of play on Friday.

    A sign that the ECB isn't prepared to put real money and effort into the support of the Euro 1.20-1.25 level would quickly impact US indexes.

    Still alot of uncertainty as reflected by the Libor (which has doubled recently) and the VOX.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Some really critical times.

    Corporate bond sales have reached their lowest point since 1999 (i.e lower now than when Lehmans Failed), this essentially means that there is just no liquidity atm.(this is circumstantially supported by the lower mortgage lending)

    Along with a rising libor rate(the rate at which banks lend to each other), we are certaintly entering a second liquidity phase.

    This really is an explosive mix along with sovereign debt worries and we could see a very big bang at anytime now, until/unless some real action is taken.

    Unless you've after a rush, equities look to be very risky atm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Some really critical times.

    Corporate bond sales have reached their lowest point since 1999 (i.e lower now than when Lehmans Failed), this essentially means that there is just no liquidity atm.(this is circumstantially supported by the lower mortgage lending)

    Along with a rising libor rate(the rate at which banks lend to each other), we are certaintly entering a second liquidity phase.

    This really is an explosive mix along with sovereign debt worries and we could see a very big bang at anytime now, until/unless some real action is taken.

    Unless you've after a rush, equities look to be very risky atm.

    Hows Gold doing ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Some really critical times.

    Corporate bond sales have reached their lowest point since 1999 (i.e lower now than when Lehmans Failed), this essentially means that there is just no liquidity atm.(this is circumstantially supported by the lower mortgage lending)

    Along with a rising libor rate(the rate at which banks lend to each other), we are certaintly entering a second liquidity phase.

    This really is an explosive mix along with sovereign debt worries and we could see a very big bang at anytime now, until/unless some real action is taken.

    Unless you've after a rush, equities look to be very risky atm.

    Yes....all looking very gloomy.

    The damning IMF statement about the mess Spain are in certainly hasn't helped .... but then there is no point burying your head in the sand.

    FTSE down 2.5% this morning with DAX and CAC similar. Maybe I should be stashing my ISAa under the mattress??!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Hows Gold doing ???

    Falling generally which means we are looking at deflation.

    Probably the same deflation we were facing in 2008, which was delayed due to state intervention.

    Sovereign states are no longer in a position to intervene so this time there is nothing to stop it.

    Before the summer is out, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Dow sub 9000, FTSE sub 4500, the euro and sterling coming under big pressure and other asset classes (including house prices) starting to fall sharply

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    Yes....all looking very gloomy.

    The damning IMF statement about the mess Spain are in certainly hasn't helped .... but then there is no point burying your head in the sand.

    FTSE down 2.5% this morning with DAX and CAC similar. Maybe I should be stashing my ISAa under the mattress??!

    Falling generally which means we are looking at deflation.

    Probably the same deflation we were facing in 2008, which was delayed due to state intervention.

    Sovereign states are no longer in a position to intervene so this time there is nothing to stop it.

    Before the summer is out, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Dow sub 9000, FTSE sub 4500, the euro and sterling coming under big pressure and other asset classes (including house prices) starting to fall sharply

    So nothing to worry about then..................

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    As expected banks taking a hit(particularly those involved in holding Euro debt).

    Spanish banks not doing well at all, lots of bad news tbh not much point putting it all here.

    The cost of insuring against default is also on the up and Libor rising still.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

    Massive investor demand for gold this month:

    The European Union's debt crisis appeared to be ratcheted up a notch Tuesday, following the weekend seizure of a Spanish bank by Spain's bank regulators. Credit spreads in European Union nations are again widening and the Euro currency was under strong selling pressure again Tuesday. There are increasing concerns the EU's debt crisis will spread from Greece to Portugal and Spain, and possibly turn into a worldwide contagion that could sink the world's major economies. Traders have been buying gold with European currencies as a hedge against further weakness of the European currencies. Such will likely continue to be the case as long as the U.S. dollar remains robust against its European counterparts.

    The EU is creeking at the seems :bomb:

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Japan announced a massive 40% increase in exports, amazing isn't it and really good news

    However this is off the back of China, S.Korea etc all posting a big increase in exports, Germany's exports being stable and even the US and UK seeing a small increase in exports.

    What puzzles me though is if everybody is exporting, who's importing ?.

    The US and UK have seen an increase in imports but consumers are not spending lots, investment by companies isn't going 10 to the dozen.

    Bit perplexing really, one possible explanation might be pure and simply stock rebuilding by companies, if this is the case though it's only going to be very limited, at this rate stocks will rebuild very quickly.

    maybe I am missing something.

    Can't post without commenting on the Euro issue.

    Big fall in the Euro currency again yesterday and news that China might be looking to sell some of the 600Bn Euros it has.

    I am still torn between an inflationary outlook of between 3-5% for Europe which will really kill government bonds or deflation, the best scenario is that they cancel each other out, but maybe that's hopecasting.

    For me the World Economy and Europe and the UK in particular are being pulled by some very strong external forces in opposite ways, this explains the volatility of the markets atm.

    Little bits of news might mean one side winning or lossing and the markets will respond accordingly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Banks and France falling today off the back of some news from Hungary. Franch in particular has lots of exposure to Hungary.

    See it's not just the banks that have lied.

    "Hungary said it’s in a “very grave situation†because a previous government lied about the state of the economy. A spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban said talk of a default is “not an exaggeration†because a previous administration “manipulated†figures. "

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Icelandic voters went to the polls over the weekend and delivered an overwhelming blow to bankers and governments attempting saddle the people with billions of dollars in debts to foreign states stemming from the failure of a private bank.

    Partial referendum results were announced Sunday, revealing that more than 93 percent of Icelanders rejected the proposal to pay back $5.3 billion allegedly owed to the British and Dutch governments. Less than two percent voted yes. And afterward, Icelanders celebrated in the streets with fireworks.

    http://dailypaul.com/node/137180

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Perhaps the people who gave Icelandic banks the credit ratings should also pay up. The banks/Government involved should pay back some though not straight away but over a number of years.

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    • 3 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    More global woes on the stock markets today, most markets hiting fresh yearly lows of the back of the old chesnut called sovereign debt.

    The problem doesn't really go away, but if no new news comes out for about a week, the markets tend to forget about it and start rising again only to seem surprised when it comes back to bite again.

    At least the UK has done well and sterling is rising again, now the tight rope walking begins, but at least they are going to give it a try unlike Brown who didn't even have the balls to get onto the platform.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    At least the UK has done well and sterling is rising again, now the tight rope walking begins, but at least they are going to give it a try unlike Brown who didn't even have the balls to get onto the platform.

    They've got to be very careful though the path is very narrow and huge drops either side. One mistake and the mess is even bigger than before.

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    Posted
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Loving the vaiety
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis

    Interesting to see how many jitters there are with regards to the ECB calling in its 12 month loans this week, could be interesting to see how Spain in particular fares given its near exclusion to inter bank lending.

    Also saw a related article looking at Greece again, appears in the last 4 months Greek households and business between them have cleared out over 20 billion euro from greek banks which may have an impact on liquidity yet again this week.

    many more rumbles to come i sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Another bad day for world stock markets.

    Dollar coming under serious pressure - deflationary bust in America still possible despite £1.3$trillion QE so far.

    Deflationery bust in Eurozone likely

    UK will do well to weather these storms, especially as the next leg of real estate deflation is almost upon us, which will put UK banks under huge pressure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

    Deflation is the big worry in the markets today which means basically everything is sharply down from raw materials, commodities and stocks.

    China is the key to how all this pans out, they will be desperate to see any sort of recovery in the US so will be looking to stimulate further its back door support of the dollar. If the US fails to see any sort of recovery the global economy is set for a long period or depression with deflation becoming a real issue. That's means a seriously slowed Chinese economy which relies on double digit growth figures, very interesting times ahead.

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    Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, New Zealand
  • Location: Christchurch, New Zealand

    My sow is due to give birth in the next few days ....... pork for the freezer to go with the beef.

    People need to wake up for what is coming!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I think we need to be aware that there is and always has been massive hurdles for the world economy to try and get over.

    There was the instability between Russia and the US.

    Indo-china relations.

    The inertia of the 2nd largest economy on the planet(Japan) for well over a decade.

    The 80's crash.

    Israel and the middle east

    Lots of things to cause economic growth to really get a kicking.

    However generally it doesn't, the latin-american countries are doing OK, Canada, Australia and alot of the Asian economies are doing well also.

    The big problem is falling into a trap you can't get out of.

    For the UK this trap was building up debt to a level where we couldn't afford the interest repayments, Greece has fallen fowl of this.

    IMO the US are starting to get close as well, they really need to be looking 10-15 years down the line, when India and China will be twice as big as they are now, will people still want dollars ?, will the US be able to get it's deficit down. ?

    Another biggy is N.Korea which has maybe 12 months left in it according to alot of people with a dramatic turn for the worse in the last 6 months. Lots of talk about factions within the n.Korea political establishment fighting for a take over.

    Oil is a concern, but again nothing that will knock the world economy in the next 12 months.

    The biggest problem is still the lack of growth which the 2.5tn spent by governments in the last 18 months hasn't addressed as the money has largely been wasted. Keynes and his demand push has failed (again).

    When the debt is repaid (both government and private) growth will resume. The pain isn't just the government cuts but the cuts to our own household spending that needs to take place the UK has debts of around 300% of GDP.

    An interesting story in the economist.

    Two Japanese brothers found a keg of Saki on a beach, they decided to take the keg to the city to sell to people in the city centre, they thought if they saved the money they might have enough to start their own stall.

    They finally got the keg to the city centre and both were worn out so the oldest brother said that he would lend the youngest brother some money to buy a drink from the keg from him.

    The youngest brother as promised used the money, gave it back to the oldest brother and drank his drink, the oldest brother than used the money and paid the youngest brother for a drink. This carried on for some time until the keg was totally empty.

    At the end of it the oldest brother had nothing and the youngest had less than nothing.

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