Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

World Economy


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    German gold-bug website Hartgeld.com has several letters to the editor that prices in Germany are labeled in German Marks again after the Mark was exchanged for Euros years ago. Price quoting in Marks was unheared of in the last years; now it is back.

    Other rumours published on that site point to a possible re-issuance of the Mark next weekend.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 1.4k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Massive Euro bailout of over half a trillion, the only problem is how can countries that are heavily indebt, help that debt by lending themselves more money ?.

    There is more than a hint in the package that the ECB will now consider printing money to buy back it's own debt, which it has lent to the member states.

    This is only really what the US, UK and Japan have already done, but it does sound a warning to anyone who things we are out of this mess yet.

    It also raises the following questions.

    Will the UK now become more likely to start QE again ?.

    Will Euro states knowing that this bailout is available be less inclined to reduce spending ?

    Will Greece feel it has been picked on ?

    If any losses are incurred on this lending will will bare the loss ?, as far as I am aware this hasn't been made clear yet.

    Still some good news albeit 12 months late.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    Massive Euro bailout of over half a trillion, the only problem is how can countries that are heavily indebt, help that debt by lending themselves more money ?.

    There is more than a hint in the package that the ECB will now consider printing money to buy back it's own debt, which it has lent to the member states.

    This is only really what the US, UK and Japan have already done, but it does sound a warning to anyone who things we are out of this mess yet.

    It also raises the following questions.

    Will the UK now become more likely to start QE again ?.

    Will Euro states knowing that this bailout is available be less inclined to reduce spending ?

    Will Greece feel it has been picked on ?

    If any losses are incurred on this lending will will bare the loss ?, as far as I am aware this hasn't been made clear yet.

    Still some good news albeit 12 months late.

    Do you think the banks will absorb the loss or be allowed to go to the wall if the debt goes bad or do you think the taxpayer (who is known in the banking world to have a soft spot) will get shafted once more?

    I am wrong to have a sense of impending doom?

    Edit: On point two about countries being less inclined to reduce spending knowing there is a massive safety blanket. I assume this is a rhetorical question as you and I both know the answer to that one!!

    Edited by CatchMyDrift
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I think the losses will have to be absored through the ECB and hence by the tax payer ultimately, so does the market which is why Barclays is up 14% atm.

    As to doom, it all depends on whether this buys time through confidence to performing the restructuring, if it doesn't then definately gloom and if it does then fantastic, it was a step that was needed, but doesn't prevent the need for Europe and the UK to live back in their means, atm I don't think Europe as a whole as really woken up yet, its still perceived as a PIGS problem.

    The biggest problem is that the euro member states will have to borrow a combined $950Bn this year to finance their spending.

    On top of this there is the re-financing of existing debt which is due to expire this year to the tune of approx 1.1trillion.

    There isn't a single country not borrowing less than 5% of GDP in the Euro area..

    So this group of countries suddenly loaning a further 500bn to each other doesn't fill me with confidence very much a smoke and mirrors exercise.

    Now I fully admit that the likes of Germany can borrow more than say Spain from the open market, but the end result must be a dilution of the credit worthyness of the strong Euro countries, not to mention the other things mentioned above.

    A strong positive reaction across Europe though with the CAC for example being 7% higher which if it continues could be the largest single gain in it's history.

    What needs to happen though beyond today is that the ECB needs to print money, the Euro needs to depreciate and interest rates need to increase, I have yet to see any sign that this will happen.

    Also of high importance is the re-structuring of many of these sovereign economies, germany can nolonger take the lions share of exports from the EU, this needs to be shared out to prevent the Euro many speed swimlane and strength the single currency IMO.

    Edited by Iceberg
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    I think the losses will have to be absored through the ECB and hence by the tax payer ultimately, so does the market which is why Barclays is up 14% atm.

    Tell me something: does the fall in UK gilts today reflect money being taken out to finance purchases in stocks or does it reflect a fall in confidence in the ability of the UK government to pay its debts (or a combination of both factors!)? For example, some of the long-term UK debt is down 2% in value.

    (I have to admit that I really struggle with gilts, etc.)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    No probs I am not an expert, but essentially the same funds that invest in gilts won't invest in shares.

    Hence people won't take money from one to buy the other (generally).

    Most funds that invest in high quality gilts(cough!) are limited to high investment grade investments i.e anything with a AAA or AA+ rating either sovereign or high quality corporate debt.

    For this reason it's more probably a increased chance that whatever government comes to power over the next week will introduce another period of limited QE.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Wind driven falling snow
  • Location: Calgary, Canada (1230m asl)

    No probs I am not an expert, but essentially the same funds that invest in gilts won't invest in shares.

    Hence people won't take money from one to buy the other (generally).

    Most funds that invest in high quality gilts(cough!) are limited to high investment grade investments i.e anything with a AAA or AA+ rating either sovereign or high quality corporate debt.

    For this reason it's more probably a increased chance that whatever government comes to power over the next week will introduce another period of limited QE.

    Thanks, that makes it clearer in my mind. It can be hard putting the bits and bobs together sometimes!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Why do I get the feeling we've found a big hole and now we're digging another hole to fill the first one in. Only to find that the second hole is now bigger than first and that now also needs filling in.

    Edited by The PIT
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    It is collective insanity. At it's simplest level the entire global boom of the last fifteen years is based on people buying lots of stuff they don't need with money they don't actually have. The first crack appeared when it became obvious that there were thousands (millions ?) of people who, having bought lots of stuff they didn't need with money they didn't actually have, were never actually going to pay that money back. So in order to stop the private lenders from collapsing governments used state money to prop up the private lenders. Now we have the situation where governments who have spent much more money than they'll ever get back are being bailed out by bigger governments to prop up currencies. And what happens when the markets decide that the bigger governments aren't going to get their money back either (which they won't) ??? The only possible answer is to print more money than has already been printed, and sooner or later the markets will then decide that this artificially manufactured 'new' money is worthless, and you know what that means - hyper-inflation. Add to that mass unemployment, no tax revenues, (so no new 'real' money flowing into government coffers), and sky high interest rates. Could we really be looking at Zimbabwe on a global scale within the next few years ???

    If it wasn't for the fact I am a parent and therefore hope this pain won't be felt too keenly, I'd be rejoicing because with every new bail-out and 'crisis averted' I see another nail in the coffin of the current farcical and nonsensical 'perpetual growth' free market economic system. The only truly sad thing about this is that you can bet your last pound/euro/dollar that the fat-head fat cat 'top dogs' who have presided over this debacle will be the last to feel the pain.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Well the Markets have started to look at the Euro Sovereign rescue package with a bit more realism today.

    Madrid back down nearly 5% and other Euro markets down (although not reversing yesterdays gains).

    The US are right to be scared, many people focus on the US, China etc, but the EURO zone is still the largest economic block in the globe and when it's in real trouble so is everyone else.

    BTW A figure that I find really scary is that if you work down the list of the worlds largest economic countries it's not until you get to the likes of Norway that you find what which isn't having to borrow money.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The European Union and the International Monetary Fund have approved a nearly $1 trillion package to stop Greece’s debt crisis from spilling beyond its borders into the rest of the eurozone. Stocks surged in Europe, Asia and the United States Monday after EU leaders agreed to a $960 billion package to contain Greece’s financial troubles.

    Meanwhile, the austerity measures demanded by the IMF and the European Union as a condition of their loan are continuing to exact their toll. Greece’s two main unions have continued to hold protests against the reforms. In a statement, one of the unions said, “The crisis should be paid by…all those who looted public finances.” Last week nearly 100,000 people participated in a mass demonstration and a twenty-four-hour general strike against the austerity measures.

    Video here: -

    http://www.democracynow.org/2010/5/11/the_people_of_greece_are_fighting

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Well the Euro Bailout lasted long.

    Madrid currently back down nearly 8% and back the level it was at before the Euro bailout was announced.

    Major falls across many other stock markets as well.

    What will be next an another 1 Tr of prop up money ?.

    Or

    ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Here comes the W of the recession right ???

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Well the Euro Bailout lasted long.

    Madrid currently back down nearly 8% and back the level it was at before the Euro bailout was announced.

    Major falls across many other stock markets as well.

    What will be next an another 1 Tr of prop up money ?.

    Or

    ?

    Propping up fraud-driven bubbles with more bubbles....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Propping up fraud-driven bubbles with more bubbles....

    I prefer my comment. Oh we dug a big hole how do we fill it. oh by digging another hole.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    For this reason it's more probably a increased chance that whatever government comes to power over the next week will introduce another period of limited QE.

    Very loud noises about QE now from the B of E. set to start in August due to the current sovereign financial issues(they are scared stiff that they won't be able to shift the bonds)

    I very much believe the markets have it right again.

    Edited by Iceberg
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

    I have not been on this thread for a while, but a double dip recession is and was pretty nailed on from the start in Europe. US recovery has historically had a time delayed effect on ours and I don't see that being any different this time. I don't feel that Euro zone breakup is beyond the realms of possibility and it may well be that the Euro is fatally injured?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Very loud noises about QE now from the B of E. set to start in August due to the current sovereign financial issues(they are scared stiff that they won't be able to shift the bonds)

    I very much believe the markets have it right again.

    Is the Quantitative Easing process really creating new base-money supply towards actual creation of new useful assets (e.g. public infrastructure in this country --> jobs --> extra savings, etc)?

    If not, then we all know its a waste of time.

    Edited by PersianPaladin
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Personally, more quantitive easing would not suprise me. The Euro aside, the UK economy is currently being artificialy inflated to the tune of about 3%, which therefore leaves te option of borrow more (luckily the coalition for now seems hell bent on cutting the deficit), or more quantitive easing, either that or raise interest rates to 3.5% imidiately and let the economy correct itself (sharp but swift second recession), as the Bank of England won't allow that, that leaves quantitive easing.

    Quick question, does the £163 billion of borrowing over the past year include the amount we are paying back ofthe 1.3 trillion or so of debt we already owe??

    Also, how much money will the 22% increase in capital gains tax bring us??

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Something floating in the air again, Another Weekend announcement(probably saturday to allow the markets to digest and not panic react).

    Markets not responding well to the Euro uncertainty.

    Strong rumours that the word default and greece will be used as Greece at last re-structures it's debt.

    Portugal and Spain to announce more cuts. With some kind of firebrake from greece to prevent the chances of Spain defaulting.

    Risk warnings from the IMF that Japan needs to reduce govt spending as well.

    But the only certainty is uncertainty.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Something floating in the air again, Another Weekend announcement(probably saturday to allow the markets to digest and not panic react).

    Markets not responding well to the Euro uncertainty.

    Strong rumours that the word default and greece will be used as Greece at last re-structures it's debt.

    Portugal and Spain to announce more cuts. With some kind of firebrake from greece to prevent the chances of Spain defaulting.

    Risk warnings from the IMF that Japan needs to reduce govt spending as well.

    But the only certainty is uncertainty.

    Time to default globally on debts and start again. Are we seeing the death knell of the Euro though????

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    FTSE gets the jitters on track for its biggest monthly fall since March 2009.

    and US unemployment on the increase.

    In a volatile session, the FTSE 100 .FTSE ended down 84.95 points at 5,073.13, its lowest close since February 5 having fallen 2.8 percent on Wednesday.

    But the index fell as much as 3 percent and touched a low of 5,000.76 in heavy trade.

    Investors, already rattled by worries on the euro zone debt crisis, were further unnerved by weaker then forecast U.S. employment data released in afternoon trade.

    The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week for the first time since early April, suggesting the labour market recovery has hit a stumbling block.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    FTSE gets the jitters on track for its biggest monthly fall since March 2009.

    and US unemployment on the increase.

    In a volatile session, the FTSE 100 .FTSE ended down 84.95 points at 5,073.13, its lowest close since February 5 having fallen 2.8 percent on Wednesday.

    But the index fell as much as 3 percent and touched a low of 5,000.76 in heavy trade.

    Investors, already rattled by worries on the euro zone debt crisis, were further unnerved by weaker then forecast U.S. employment data released in afternoon trade.

    The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week for the first time since early April, suggesting the labour market recovery has hit a stumbling block.

    'Double Dip' time, i suspect, in respect of the UK economy. And probably other economies as well.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    FSTE below 5000

    Dow below 10000

    Traders in America expecting an event in Europe of the magnitude of the Lehmans collapse* within 7 days

    *Assume this could mean a member exiting EMU.

    I still haven't changed my view that we are in a depression akin to the 1930s which started in the second half of 2007. Printing money (QE) might have delayed the inevitable through 2009 but as the taps are turned off, suprise suprise it's deflation everyone is running scared of.

    Bring it on I say, if the world economy has over capacity, it needs to deflate. Problem is the world is over leveraged this time and asset prices must be propped up or every bank on the planet is toast.

    To recap, banks got rich then went bust, state helped banks but then nearly went bust themselves - states citizens to pay via higher taxation. In the last three years we have witnessed the greatest transfer of wealth to the rich from the poor ever seen yet the man in the street cannot see he has been swindled.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Cool Showerfest continues for the next week. Hints of a change beyond that?

      With the jet stream close to the south and low pressure nearby over the next 7 days, expect showers or longer spells of rain over many areas, staying cool too, with temperatures below average. But hints of something drier and more settled arriving next weekend. View the full blog here

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Michael Fish: More May showers this weekend and next week

      Michael Fish presents his latest weekly forecast, and if you're hoping for a change to more summery weather, it's not good news. Watch the video here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-14 09:22:46 Valid: 14/05/2021 0600 - 15/05/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRIDAY 14TH MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...