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Posted
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark

    Why so suspicious?. The figures come from National Office of Statistics and companies BY LAW have to send in monthly returns to the NOS.I have filled in hundreds in my career. ...

    We all know governments (Labour and the tories have done it for years) use different statistics for their own ends... CPI and not RPI....Those out of work... those on JSA etc. ...... they usually say what the basis for any shift in index measuremnets are whether you agree or not.

    unless you are sugesting corruption .Posted Image

    Maybe I didn't make it clear enough; I am referring to the German statistics, and I am convinced they massage figures to make themselves look nice. We are rather different to the continental Europeans, who regard comparing national politics as something of a beauty contest.

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Oh I see. I beleive the strong manufacturing figures for last year were real as I worked for a company with a German subsidiary and its sales across numerous market sectors were very robust indeed. I no longer work for them but I have no reason to doubt the current weaker eurozone, UK an US growth.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    It's not just individuals here that lost money. Many British ratepayers generally lost out. Wasnt it the Western Isles that lost their shirt with their local government investments just to name one council amongst many?

    Yes, they were advised by one, John Prescott, to invest in Iceland!

    Not only did Labour's spendthrift ways leave us in such a mess, they also screwed up many councils balance sheets!

    Also Martin Lewis advised UK consumers to invest in Iceland bank savings - another financial amateur, who the masses follow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's not just individuals here that lost money. Many British ratepayers generally lost out. Wasnt it the Western Isles that lost their shirt with their local government investments just to name one council amongst many?

    Don’t get me wrong, I do think the Icelandic government has a large degree of responsibility for what happened. However, given that people gambled by investing in Iceland to make good money (interest rates not available UK) without the same savings guarantee they get from the Government in the UK, then it makes me less sympathetic. Certainly, I can appreciate the average Icelandic Bjorn not wishing to pay for someone’s gambling debts; which was essentially what these were (what looks too good to be true normally is).

    Yes, many UK councils made the mistake of investing. I understand the following local councils in Scotland (including controlling parties at the time) were:

    Aberdeen City Council (Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition)

    North Ayrshire (Labour)

    East Ayrshire (Labour)

    Scottish Borders Council (Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition)

    South Ayrshire (Conservative)

    South Lanarkshire (Labour)

    Western Isles Council (Independents coalition)

    Exposures I understand ranged from ~1 million to 25 million per council.

    I suspect controlling parties will suffer heavily in next years local elections with the SNP likely to make massive inroads (already picked up some seats in 2007), even taking control in some cases.

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Forgive me if I'm wrong but didn't Icelandic banks have very good credit ratings prior to going tits up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    Forgive me if I'm wrong but didn't Icelandic banks have very good credit ratings prior to going tits up.

    I believe Lehman Brothers had good ratings too....

    e.g.

    http://www.nytimes.c...y/23rating.html

    “The story of the credit rating agencies is a story of colossal failure,” Mr. Waxman said. “The credit rating agencies occupy a special place in our financial markets. Millions of investors rely on them for independent, objective assessments. The rating agencies broke this bond of trust, and federal regulators ignored the warning signs and did nothing to protect the public.”

    Edited by scottish skier
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    Posted
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark

    I have grave doubts about the authenticity of this web site - I had it on screen whilst I had a cut in my adsl signal yet it was still ticking away like a good 'un when it could not have been receiving any info.

    Congratulations Mike, you have just disproven the Second Law of Thermodynamics by discovering a perpetual motion mechanism.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Forgive me if I'm wrong but didn't Icelandic banks have very good credit ratings prior to going tits up.

    They had good ratings((not excellent ones though), but were on watchlist's etc i.e we so see no reason to downgrade but think there might be a problem brewing.

    At the end of the day it comes down to simple common sense. If you see something that's too good to be true i.e saving rates of 6-7% then usually it is. You need to ask yourself why would somebody give you this rate of interest ?

    It was the same with the housing market and a range of other investments inc gold IMO atm,

    Credit rating agencies are a guide nothing more nothing less, you should always use your own judgement and investigations. If you could use credit rating agencies to invest then who would pay for an investment manager/fund manager etc.

    I have no sympathy for anybody who lost money in iceland and the financial controllers for these councils needed to lose their jobs instantly as should a great many of the elected councillors.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    I have grave doubts about the authenticity of this web site - I had it on screen whilst I had a cut in my adsl signal yet it was still ticking away like a good 'un when it could not have been receiving any info.

    I have no idea how it works or accuracy - just came across it when browsing lazily. For me it was more the symbolic aspect of watching debts rise/fall and the huge amounts involved I found somewhat engaging; 'Makes you think' if you like.

    How ineffective it would be if we could cut off our broadband and it would stop; politicians I'm sure would do exactly that (I'm not looking, I'm not looking...) Posted Image

    Edited by scottish skier
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    I have grave doubts about the authenticity of this web site - I had it on screen whilst I had a cut in my adsl signal yet it was still ticking away like a good 'un when it could not have been receiving any info.

    Congratulations Mike, you have just disproven the Second Law of Thermodynamics by discovering a perpetual motion mechanism.

    If only - endless power costing virually nothing - cars which go for ever with no fuel - ditto with aircraft, ships and trains - no more nasty pollutants being put into the atmosphere, then with the royalties I would be able to put my grandchildren through university and perhaps get 'er indoors the kitchen of her dreams - I might even be able to take flying lessons and get a light aircraft so that I would be able to enjoy flying to France rather than by taking the cattle truck in the sky :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I have grave doubts about the authenticity of this web site - I had it on screen whilst I had a cut in my adsl signal yet it was still ticking away like a good 'un when it could not have been receiving any info.

    Yep... It looks nice but it's a fake. Just turn off the wi-fi on your laptop and the numbers still keep rolling on when it's clearly not receiving any new data... It must be working on a flash animation or something. .... looks good though. It's a bit like many ecomonists.. they can quote loads of numbers that dont mean a great deal!Posted Image

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Congratulations Mike, you have just disproven the Second Law of Thermodynamics by discovering a perpetual motion mechanism.

    Sadly not - more like a downloadable component with the rate of increase/decrease preprogrammed in - perhaps updated daily/monthly/never!

    Edited by Sparticle
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    I am a bit bemused - over the last couple of days the footsie and wall street have made quite respectable gains yet some articles in yesterday's papers have been harbingers of doom by predicting a double dip. This does not appear to have affected the recent upward trend in the markets although these theories must have been out well in time to have done so.

    My nasty suspicious mind wonders whether this was a story put out to force the markets back down so that some can buy more shares at bargain basement prices, or did they bet the wrong way on the futures?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark
  • Location: Taasinge, Denmark

    My nasty suspicious mind wonders whether this was a story put out to force the markets back down so that some can buy more shares at bargain basement prices

    ssssshhhhhh Mike, do you want everyone to know?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Even after the rallies of the last couple of days most of the markets had the worst month since the financial crisis broke out in late 2008. The Dow ended 45 Down and the FTSE 100 fell from over 6000 in July to approx 5400 yesterday.

    Most of the recent rallies were investors (myself included) buying up underpriced equities of otherwise strong companies, not an indication of an end to the threat of a double dip. Some of those companies are in good shape (and at a good price) to weather future storms.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Gold hits new record highs in London £1160 per ounce and now trades $2 above platinum.

    Correction on its way?

    Nope, I'm banking on it having a way to go yet.

    I see that the yield on Italian bonds is up to 5.25% today, from under 5% last week. Will the Ecb be able/willing to step in again given that the Italians seem to be dragging their feet over economic reforms?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

    Nope, I'm banking on it having a way to go yet.

    I see that the yield on Italian bonds is up to 5.25% today, from under 5% last week. Will the Ecb be able/willing to step in again given that the Italians seem to be dragging their feet over economic reforms?

    Agreed overal with your assumption but, the current trend seems unsubstanable to me, up 13% on the month. Weak jobs data out of the States and the fear of more US QE driving the latest rise. $1700-$1750 looks the right level to me?

    The boys in the city will be looking to take profits too so, I am looking for a $100 correction before it resumes upwards??

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I've kept my options open and took out a Physical Precious Metals Basket ETF a few weeks ago after a tip in the FT. It includes Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. http://www.fundslibr...ser=hl_web_test The fund rose 2.37% today matching the fall in the FTSE 100.

    Gold is a difficult one to call with some fund managers geting out for fear of bubble territory but other well respected managers holding firm. Todays market falls seem to confirm the hold position. (This link was written 31 Aug as markets were rallying beforre todays fall back) http://marketing.financialexpress.net/rp//248/process.clsp?t=221166222E1EA0085CCB4FCB0945832EA

    You are possibly correct High Pressure in seeing a profit taking dip but I'm also banking on further increases beyond that.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    The fall in Irish bond yields, if it continues, may hopefully allow the Government to test the markets before the end of the year. On the current trend I could see Ireland in the markets in the second half of next year assuming there is no catastrophe in the global economy.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=GIGB10YR%3AIND&img=png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    The fall in Irish bond yields, if it continues, may hopefully allow the Government to test the markets before the end of the year. On the current trend I could see Ireland in the markets in the second half of next year assuming there is no catastrophe in the global economy.

    http://www.bloomberg...R%3AIND&img=png

    I wouldn't be counting any chickens just yet!!

    The eurozone looks to be odds on for creating that catastophe. Italian bond yields back up to 5.46%(edit 1.30pm ..now 5.50%) .....and as for the Greeks....what's the point its like p****ing into the wind!

    Edited by Kiwi
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    See in the papers over the weekend that Ireland is looking to develop oil fields around it coasts - if successful it should aid their situation somewhat. I am cautiously optimistic about their long term prospects of getting out of the mire - you also have to consider "the luck of the Irish as well" :)

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