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As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Looks like Merkel, Sarkozy & the ECB need to pull another rabbit out of the hat. The last one didn't live very long.

    European equities suffered their biggest daily fall in two and a half years on Thursday, as a slew of data cast further doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world's biggest economy.

    German shares lost most, with traders citing the effects of a short-selling ban on financial stocks in other parts of Europe and intensifying worries about politicians' lack of a plan to address the euro zone sovereign debt crisis.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Barc shares at 154 look cheap and oversold today due to panic, I would imagine a 5% bounce back by the end of the weekend or latest Monday Morning giving a rather tidy profit for a few days trading.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Dunno is the up button broken on the lift???

    Can the EU problems be solved though the politicians seem to want the old system to carry on regardless. perhaps it time the EU ideal was rethought out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Dunno is the up button broken on the lift???

    Can the EU problems be solved though the politicians seem to want the old system to carry on regardless. perhaps it time the EU ideal was rethought out.

    I reckon you're right PIT ......and I've heard that the lift maintenance man has just been made redundant , on account of the recession looming around the corner.

    Some dire figs coming out of the states coupled with the euro mess are making me very pessimistic......and going by the markets it seems that I'm not alone.

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    I've got a small pension fund to which I am still paying in - I was going to get an annuity this summer but the downturn has put the carbwash on that. So plans in this respect are on the backburner, as is an extension to our house.

    As it is we are fairly well cushioned with final salary pensions, so we will wait it out and look to get a little bit bit on pound/cost averaging and crossing fingers in the meantime.

    The footsie got to 6900 in Dec 1999 and has been below that level ever since, almost 12 years - How long will it take to regain that level I wonder?

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  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I beleive annuity levels are at their lowest level (and falling) for 40 years so you might have a long wait!

    £100,000k will only buy you around £6k per annum http://www.hl.co.uk/...-best-buy-rates and my pot has just lost over 10% of it's value this month alone..

    Take up smoking 60 a day and you'll get a better rate. At least you can now hang on until you are 75 to buy an annuity (if the fags dont get you first.)

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Or you can say you smoke 60 a day but not really.....but that would be fraud.

    yep a 5 or 6% annuity is about right depending on index linked, spouse transferable etc

    Looks like a 4-6% fall today globally US not recovering much.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    I bought some Aviva shares for £3.20 a share at the last 'bottom' of the market the other week, but i don't need the money for a long time so i'm not worried - good quality co.s, with plenty of cash reserves, profitable products and paying good dividends are a long term hold, in my view.

    In fact, i might be tempted to buy some more in the next couple of days.

    If you're playing with money that you might or know you'll need in the next year don't play - simples!

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  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    You're stuffed if you are nearing retirement (outside of final salary schemes). Returns on cash savings are negative after inflation. Property is flat, Annuity rates falling and now equities are falling again. Many money purchase pesion schemes adopt Lifestyle planning, switching to gilts and cash nearer retirement but that's not much better that equities now.

    Back on topic.... Germany is the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe and if it's growth is flatlining I can well see Europe and quite probably the UK and USA slipping back into recessionary territory.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Unemployment in Northern Ireland is now at levels not seen since 1997 and the Good Friday agreement. House prices at 2000 prices and 48 months of contraction. For NI we haven't had a recession, it's now a depression.

    Scarily the job losses in the public sector haven;t even kicked in yet.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I've got a small pension fund to which I am still paying in - I was going to get an annuity this summer but the downturn has put the carbwash on that. So plans in this respect are on the backburner, as is an extension to our house.

    As it is we are fairly well cushioned with final salary pensions, so we will wait it out and look to get a little bit bit on pound/cost averaging and crossing fingers in the meantime.

    The footsie got to 6900 in Dec 1999 and has been below that level ever since, almost 12 years - How long will it take to regain that level I wonder?

    Peaked at that level in 2007.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    If you're considering buying shares, first of all think about how much time you want to invest for. Then grab the data for that period, and figure out what 2 standard deviations are. When the price is below mean-2 standard deviations you have a 95% chance that it's bottomed out over that period - and it's a buy, and it becomes a sell when the moving average over that period is greater than mean+1.96 standard deviations at any point.

    Of course, there's still 5% chance that it's wrong ... you won't make a fortune, but it will limit losses.

    Edited by Sparticle
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  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    The average FTSE close for the last ten years (18 Aug 2001 - 18 Aug 2011) is 5163. It's stddev is 794. A bottom-out, then, is 3574. A long way down! My view is to profit take (if you're lucky enough to be in that position) and rebuy when FTSE drops below 4000 - if it does.

    Max=6732, Min=3287 over that period.

    Of course this is the ten year view (very safe); different investment periods and/or different appetite for risks change all the maths.

    Edited by Sparticle
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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Dunno is the up button broken on the lift???

    Yikes !!!! ....dropping fast .....has the cable snapped??

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Looks like the double-dip recession (the one that everyone bar Osbourne could see a mile off) is about to commence...Praise be to the bankers!

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  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Looks like the double-dip recession (the one that everyone bar Osbourne could see a mile off) is about to commence...Praise be to the bankers!

    It's sentiment at the moment. Less than 1% down at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The thing is Osbourne had no choice but to say that there was going to be no recession. If the Chancellor said yes there will be a recession is 18 months time then the impact on confidence would have made matters worse.

    To be fair we have yet to enter any kind of recession and if there is one at least the UK will be better placed than most other countries to benefit from it. Todays borrowing figures were very good indeed i.e 200m rather than 3.5bn !.

    There is also very little evidence that the extra fiscal spending that the US, France etc undertook had any effect on unemployment or growth

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Looks like the double-dip recession (the one that everyone bar Osbourne could see a mile off) is about to commence...Praise be to the bankers!

    I don't think the mighty Germans would have been seeing, or rather saying, it was coming either Pete! As for Ed Balls... he hasn't yet cottoned onto the fact that his previous boss left a massive defecit behind and his Plan B is to still carry on writing out cheques and signing new PFI contracts . Posted Image

    Edited by kar999
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  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Seems like the FTSE doesn't want to retreat too much beyond 5k, today. Perhaps a sell-off for the weekend in anticipation of Monday morning blues - possible 4.5k, but unlikely.

    Edited by Sparticle
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  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Yep, the markets maybe just pausing for breath and pondering on yet more rumours of sticking plasters. The Dow Jones only a gentle 0.04% fall so far....

    From Hargreaves Lansdown..

    ... the outlook has improved slightly after EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said new legislation on euro bonds could be on the cards.

    Reports also suggest that there could be an emergency Federal Reserve meeting to discuss measures to keep the US economy growing.

    Mike McCudden, head of derivatives at Interactive Investor, says rumours of a third round of quantitative easing are doing the rounds in the US.

    "The bears are in control, with the general consensus being that any bounce represents a good selling opportunity," he said.

    "There is still overwhelming fear driving these markets and without decisive action in the eurozone and US the rot is set to continue."

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Now this was an investment opportunity ...

    post-5986-0-84798900-1313764039_thumb.pn

    Didn't get in there, myself Posted Image

    Shares in Autonomy rocketed by over 75% in early trading after US computing giant Hewlett-Packard made a recommended offer for the Cambridge-based software firm, valuing it at around £7.09bn

    Could well be plenty more take-overs as many Companies now have much strong balance sheets since the 2008 crash and there are some ripe bargain basement companies out there.

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  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Shares in Autonomy rocketed by over 75% in early trading after US computing giant Hewlett-Packard made a recommended offer for the Cambridge-based software firm, valuing it at around £7.09bn

    Could well be plenty more take-overs as many Companies now have much strong balance sheets since the 2008 crash and there are some ripe bargain basement companies out there.

    Yes, their exit from the hardware market is much anticipated - since they shelved their R&D division. It might well be good to look at big companies with falling turnovers looking to prop up the necessaries by acquisition.

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