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Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Edit: Possibly a post for a stocks and shares thread as you suggest Summer Blizzard....

    I'll be watching the Asian markets closely as my regular monthly Stocks and Shares ISA deduction goes out on Monday and I'll be looking to pick up one of the bargain basement funds. The only blue line in my portfolio is gold http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif as that's about the only thing holding it's price.

    My ISA has lost 6.5% in a week as will have my hard earned pension pot as I'm one of the millions without a final salary scheme unlike the public sector whose benefits won't have lost a single penny. :bomb:

    Fortunatley I dont need to cash either investment in in the near future so hopefully i'll see some recovery as and when the markets eventually correct.... but it might be quite a while this time if this becomes Credit Crisis II .

    Edited by kar999
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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

    Posted Images

    My ISA has lost 6.5% in a week as will have my hard earned pension pot as I'm one of the millions without a final salary scheme unlike the public sector whose benefits won't have lost a single penny. :bomb:

    What are you talking about? Public sector pensions have been moved from the RPI to the CPI which will make a considerable difference over the years. This move by the government was particularly annoying because unlike a lot of public sector workers I had to make contributions of over 11% of my salary towards my pension according to the regulations at the time and I fully expected to be paid according to those regulations. As far as I am concerned they renaged on the deal and moved the goal posts.

    At the same time I agree that I am a lot better off than most in my retirement. In fact I was on the point of cashing in private pension fund for an annuity but it seems I will have to put that on hold for a little while - I don't want to be selling at the bottom of the market - then I will need something to ensure that I do not leave too much in the hands of the insurance company when I do eventually pop my clogs. Fortunately I have a public sector pension :whistling:

    Edited by mike Meehan
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Edit: Possibly a post for a stocks and shares thread as you suggest Summer Blizzard....

    I'll be watching the Asian markets closely as my regular monthly Stocks and Shares ISA deduction goes out on Monday and I'll be looking to pick up one of the bargain basement funds. The only blue line in my portfolio is gold http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif as that's about the only thing holding it's price.

    My ISA has lost 6.5% in a week as will have my hard earned pension pot as I'm one of the millions without a final salary scheme unlike the public sector whose benefits won't have lost a single penny. :bomb:

    Fortunatley I dont need to cash either investment in in the near future so hopefully i'll see some recovery as and when the markets eventually correct.... but it might be quite a while this time if this becomes Credit Crisis II .

    I will open the thread later tonight given that there are at least two of us who will contribute.

    Personally not a fan of stocks and share ISA's due to having a fixed time limit. For anybody watching the stockmarket and is prepared to wait a few years, i would advise investing in the FTSE 100 and NASDAQ exchanges themlseves as there is good profit potential (30-40% on FTSE 100 and long terms is only up for NASDAQ).

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    In scenes reminiscent of the Great Depression these are the ramshackle homes of the desperate and destitute U.S. families who have set up their own 'Tent City' only an hour from Manhattan.

    More than 50 homeless people have joined the community within New Jersey's forests as the economic crisis has wrecked their American dream.

    And as politicians in Washington trade blows over their country's £8.8 trillion debt, the prospect of more souls joining this rag tag group grows by the day.

    Building their own tarpaulin tents, Native American teepees and makeshift balsa wood homes, every one of the Tent City residents has lost their job.

    Posted Image

    Read more: http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1UGz60gpE

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent

    I will open the thread later tonight given that there are at least two of us who will contribute.

    Me too if you especially if you include commodities too :)

    Also could be a good thread for share / commodity price predictions as well?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    When I opened this thread I thought we could talk about stocks, shares commodities as well, since these are one of the best indicators of world economics and it's quite difficult to talk about one without mentioning the other sometimes.

    I am happy for a second thread to be created as well, just thought I would throw in my tuppence worth. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    What are you talking about? Public sector pensions have been moved from the RPI to the CPI which will make a considerable difference over the years.

    At the same time I agree that I am a lot better off than most in my retirement. In fact I was on the point of cashing in private pension fund for an annuity but it seems I will have to put that on hold for a little while - I don't want to be selling at the bottom of the market - then I will need something to ensure that I do not leave too much in the hands of the insurance company when I do eventually pop my clogs. Fortunately I have a public sector pension :whistling:

    I was purely talking about the current fall in the stock market and how it will have wiped £millions from peoples pension pots in just a few days... not the wider issues of RPI v CPI which is another debate altogether. Last weeks fall in markets, having nothimg to do with inflation, wont have impacted on final salary pensions at all.

    Many, like me, rely solely on buying an annuity from their investments. Final salary schemes don't, and as you indeed acknowledge you are better off as a result.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The UK is still the third largest holder of US debt:

    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

    Combine that with the UK’s Euro holdings (and bailout contributions) and its looking like a busted flush....

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    I was purely talking about the current fall in the stock market and how it will have wiped £millions from peoples pension pots in just a few days... not the wider issues of RPI v CPI which is another debate altogether. Last weeks fall in markets, having nothimg to do with inflation, wont have impacted on final salary pensions at all.

    Many, like me, rely solely on buying an annuity from their investments. Final salary schemes don't, and as you indeed acknowledge you are better off as a result.

    Don't worry - part serious part tease - like we have to laugh or we cry :):(

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The UK is still the third largest holder of US debt:

    http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

    Combine that with the UK’s Euro holdings (and bailout contributions) and its looking like a busted flush....

    you seriously believe that the us could actually default ? (not technically default as in political shananigans possibly going too close to the wire, actually default like greece. in my eyes, greece has defaulted)

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    Posted
  • Location: Chevening Kent
  • Location: Chevening Kent
    I maybe being a bit thick but does the Nation debt take into account money owed to that nation? Is it a balance sheet or simple money in / out ?
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    China is not best pleased but then it's own economic growth has been fueld by US and other countries demand for it's goods but there is also another agenda...

    Since 2009 there has been strident criticism of China from US politicians who have argued that Beijing keeps its currency at an artificially low level to help its exporters.

    Aug 7, 2011

    BEIJING // China demanded yesterday that America tighten its belt and confront its "addiction to debts" after losing its triple-A credit rating.

    China owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasury debt, the largest stake of any central bank, and the commentary carried by thehttp://www.thenational.ae/thenational/business/economy/china-demands-us-tighten-fiscal-belt state-run Xinhua News Agency was Beijing's first official response to the rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's.

    "The US government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," Xinhua said.

    It said the rating cut would be followed by more "devastating credit rating cuts" and global financial turbulence if the US failed to learn to live within its means.

    "China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand that the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," it said.

    I maybe being a bit thick but does the Nation debt take into account money owed to that nation? Is it a balance sheet or simple money in / out ?

    I think any money owed to any nation is classed as part of the natonal debt.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    China is not best pleased but then it's own economic growth has been fueld by US and other countries demand for it's goods but there is also another agenda...

    Since 2009 there has been strident criticism of China from US politicians who have argued that Beijing keeps its currency at an artificially low level to help its exporters.

    Aug 7, 2011

    BEIJING // China demanded yesterday that America tighten its belt and confront its "addiction to debts" after losing its triple-A credit rating.

    China owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasury debt, the largest stake of any central bank, and the commentary carried by thehttp://www.thenational.ae/thenational/business/economy/china-demands-us-tighten-fiscal-belt state-run Xinhua News Agency was Beijing's first official response to the rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's.

    "The US government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone," Xinhua said.

    It said the rating cut would be followed by more "devastating credit rating cuts" and global financial turbulence if the US failed to learn to live within its means.

    "China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand that the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets," it said.

    I think any money owed to any nation is classed as part of the natonal debt.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond

    The thought of China demanding anything of a democracy leaves me feeling slightly sick!

    Perhaps when they stop killing & torturing their own people & those of Tibet & others, they might be in a position to ask poliely! Until then shut up! Oh by the way, we demand you do something about North Korea!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    The thought of China demanding anything of a democracy leaves me feeling slightly sick!

    Perhaps when they stop killing & torturing their own people & those of Tibet & others, they might be in a position to ask poliely! Until then shut up! Oh by the way, we demand you do something about North Korea!

    I totally agree, but we as consumers all demanded ever cheaper DVD players at £19.99 and cheap TV's, phones, PC's and practically everything that is made today. We have fed the Dragon that now is going to soon become the biggest economony in the world.

    None of this should come as a suprise. The balance of economic power has irreversibily shifted and only time will tell if politcal power will shift with it too... for better or worse.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I guess what I am saying is why the heck are we buying US debt or anyone's debt when we are a trillion quid in the red ourselves ???

    It's not really buying debt but more a case of countries holding currency reserves in dollars and dollar bonds as an investment with a return. When Gordon sold off half our gold it was to convert it into dollar currency reserves.... only he sold at the bottom of the market!

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    In respect of China I don't agree with its occupation of Tibet any more than anybody else, however if you consider its history over my life time it has gone from being occupied by the Japanese, then into a civil war where the communists won, then after that the Great Leap Forward by Mao Tse Tung which was probably a gigantic leap back; being governed since 1948 on Stalinist type principals which were gradually decreased from the 80's onwards with capitalism being introduced.

    In the past 20 years they have come on in leaps and bounds, the country has been opened up to westerners and a sizable chunk of the population are now experiencing a prosperity which their fathers would not even have dreamed about.

    They have a population of well over a billion people now and it is a country which has never been democratic, so under the circumstances, looking at it from their viewpoint I can understand why they would not wish to tinker too much with their system and run the risk of all they have gained to date. It is extremely unlikely that any amount of posturing by the west will make any difference and they now realise that they are in fact a force to be reckoned with and are extending their influence throughout the world and indeed strengthening their armed forces. At the same time they remain a mostly benevolent power as far we in the west are concerned and it appears fairly clear that at the moment they wish to extend their influence through economic means rather than by force of arms and to this end depends very much on the western markets to develop its economic strength even further.

    If democracy is to come to China this would have to be a gradual process but it is rather like riding a motorbike on a road where there is a big lorry, you have to show the lorry respect otherwise you could get flattened on the road surface.

    So sorry folks, China is going to do what it thinks is right and we can't push them around like we did at the time of the Boxer Rebellion. We are still going to want all our cheap electronic goodies. No doubt when they have the world market cornered they will stop being cheap and they will make a killing.

    Edited by mike Meehan
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    RE China the political class are already losing their power as they must do as the middle class expands.

    IMO China will fracture just like the old USSR did within the next 10-15 years. Within 40 years it's population will half and of those those left only 30% will be of working age.

    RE China demanding the SDR, again they have been saying this for last decade, so nothing really new and just a bit of opportunism.

    Anybody like to guess what will happen on Monday ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Anybody like to guess what will happen on Monday ?

    Trillion Dollar question! In my view it will largely depend on whether the ECB can agree today to buy Italian and Spanish debt(lets see if the numpties can target the right countries this time). Inaction would mean lots of trouble.

    And of course what happens in the Asian markets tonight; will they dump the dollar and US treasuries?? Somehow I doubt it.

    Assuming that the ECB get their act together my call, for what its worth, would be for equities to drop up to a couple of percent Monday but no more.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

    RE China the political class are already losing their power as they must do as the middle class expands.

    IMO China will fracture just like the old USSR did within the next 10-15 years. Within 40 years it's population will half and of those those left only 30% will be of working age.

    RE China demanding the SDR, again they have been saying this for last decade, so nothing really new and just a bit of opportunism.

    Anybody like to guess what will happen on Monday ?

    Totally agree with this. They have nowhere to go. If the middle class expands, they will slowly lose ability to make cheap goods, stemming their economy. If they do become democratic over a long period of time it will almost certainly mean unions and regulations again stemming their production. It's self limiting, and they will only stay a superpower as long as the people can put up with the standard of living.

    Also my prediction on Monday is for an initial rise in the markets, followed by stability. Assuming the ECB helps Italy out a bit that is.

    Edited by K.1000
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The thought of China demanding anything of a democracy leaves me feeling slightly sick!

    Perhaps when they stop killing & torturing their own people & those of Tibet & others, they might be in a position to ask poliely! Until then shut up! Oh by the way, we demand you do something about North Korea!

    Pot kettle black.

    What have we been doing in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, etc - since 9/11. Torturing people without trial, extraordinary rendition, etc.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I think how the Asian markets pan out will determine Mondays events and expect Europe to follow.

    My view is the markets will fall initially as they had closed on Friday before the US AAA rating was lost. Most of that bad news was already built into the weeks fall as a credit downgrade was widely anticapted. Initially perhaps another fall of about 2-3% but a lot of buyers could well enter the market as Companies balances sheets are strong even if Countires aren't and there are a lot of equities now at bargain prices. Expect to see a rush to buy once there is a perception that the market is bottoming out. I for one will be ready to put a lump sum into my S&S ISA as well as my normal drip feed direct debit.

    Going forward, a lot also depends on whether the ECB props up Spain and Italy buying their bonds and whether the US gets it's printining pressses out again adopts more QE.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    RE China the political class are already losing their power as they must do as the middle class expands.

    IMO China will fracture just like the old USSR did within the next 10-15 years. Within 40 years it's population will half and of those those left only 30% will be of working age.

    RE China demanding the SDR, again they have been saying this for last decade, so nothing really new and just a bit of opportunism.

    Anybody like to guess what will happen on Monday ?

    Not sure it will fracture and they are already thinking about future problems and how too approach it. This maybe one advantage of their style of politics. No worrying about losing the election within the five years. Of course there's always the problem of corruption which also stifles long term policies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    .. No doubt when they have the world market cornered they will stop being cheap and they will make a killing.

    It's already happened with some products. At my old place we were forced to be 100% reliant on Chinese supply for our steel product once the last UK/European foundries closed or bowed out of the market. China increased it's prices and we were buggered, but they have to be mindful of other growing ecomonies. We were having to look to the Brics such as Vietnam and Indonesia for alternative supply but they are not yet geared up sufficiently for reliable supply.

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