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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Some historical context may be an antidote to all the recent hype and madness:-

    Arthur Dahlberg, a consultant to both the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations, wrote that capitalism was already capable of satisfying basic human needs with a 4-hour work day. [20] He maintained that such a drastic cut in working hours “was necessary to prevent society from becoming disastrously materialistic.†[21]

    The issue was revisited in 1991 by Harvard economist Juliet Schor, who concluded that it would be possible to have a 4-hour work day with no decline in the standard of living. [22] Similarly, J.W. Smith argued that “over 50% of our industrial capacity has nothing to do with producing for consumer needs.†[23] Years before issues of climate change and peak oil grabbed the public, Smith forecast:

    We’re facing an ecological nightmare as we push to the brink the earth’s ability to support us. We could eliminate much industrial pollution and conserve our precious, dwindling resources by eliminating the 50% of industry that is producing nothing useful for society. [24]

    In a more recent analysis, Smith sifts through the US economy sector by sector to conclude that “we could all work 2.3 days per week with no drop in our living standard.†[25]

    It’s a rare economist who is capable of realizing that there is no reason to constantly scramble for the possession of more objects that fall apart more rapidly. British philosopher Bertrand Russell also thought that four hours of work per day should be plenty to supply the necessities of life. [26]

    Russell was thinking similarly to Benjamin Franklin, who wrote over 200 years ago:

    …if every Man and Woman would work for four Hours each Day on something useful, that Labour would produce sufficient to procure all the Necessities and Comforts of Life, Want and Misery would be banished out of the World, and the rest of the 24 hours might be Leisure and Pleasure. [27]

    http://climateandcapitalism.com/?p=691

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    "An incident" sounds all very dramatic, even somewhat cloak and dagger like....are you planning something Village??!

    If so can we have a heads up beforehand as at the mo many of us are distracted by the euro shambles/US debt etc

    LOL, yes it does sound rather dramatic doesnt it....I think a better word should have been An Event.

    Something will happen in the Financial world of credit very soon. At the moment Europe and the America are simply playing pass the parcel bomb, but at some stage very shortly the music will stop and somebody will be left holding the bomb.

    Politicians in Europe particularly dont understand basic free market economics and still try and meddle which only prolongs the agony and will make matters worse for everyone. This situation shouldnt be a banking crisis again, however the idiot governments between themselves will now insure it will be.

    Give you a clue, I have sold all my bank stocks. Watch the space.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Give you a clue, I have sold all my bank stocks. Watch the space.

    Coincidentally I've only just got around to watching Robert Pestons "Britain's Banks: Too Big to Save?" (which I'd recorded). There are just a few clips on i-player. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00xwsl5

    Frightening stuff. :bomb:

    I've only got a few shares in Lloyds, that used to worth £1500, when I got them free as a Halifax mortgage holder. There's no point in selling them as they are only worth about £35 now. I'll probably frame the share certificates and sell them on e-bay in years to come as Ephemera of a once great British Institution.

    FTSE below 5500 and still sinking... place your bets for 5100 :hi:

    http://www.mountaininvestor.com/blog/?p=744

    Edited by kar999
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    Arthur Dahlberg, a consultant to both the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations, wrote that capitalism was already capable of satisfying basic human needs with a 4-hour work day. [20] He maintained that such a drastic cut in working hours “was necessary to prevent society from becoming disastrously materialistic.†[21]

    The issue was revisited in 1991 by Harvard economist Juliet Schor, who concluded that it would be possible to have a 4-hour work day with no decline in the standard of living. [22] Similarly, J.W. Smith argued that “over 50% of our industrial capacity has nothing to do with producing for consumer needs.†[23] Years before issues of climate change and peak oil grabbed the public, Smith forecast:

    We’re facing an ecological nightmare as we push to the brink the earth’s ability to support us. We could eliminate much industrial pollution and conserve our precious, dwindling resources by eliminating the 50% of industry that is producing nothing useful for society. [24]

    In a more recent analysis, Smith sifts through the US economy sector by sector to conclude that “we could all work 2.3 days per week with no drop in our living standard.†[25]

    It’s a rare economist who is capable of realizing that there is no reason to constantly scramble for the possession of more objects that fall apart more rapidly. British philosopher Bertrand Russell also thought that four hours of work per day should be plenty to supply the necessities of life. [26]

    Russell was thinking similarly to Benjamin Franklin, who wrote over 200 years ago:

    …if every Man and Woman would work for four Hours each Day on something useful, that Labour would produce sufficient to procure all the Necessities and Comforts of Life, Want and Misery would be banished out of the World, and the rest of the 24 hours might be Leisure and Pleasure. [27]

    Sounds great in theory but...

    1) Leisure normally costs unless you spend it doing something like cultivating your garden and eating the produce, then you are working again.

    2) Half the population would be bored out of their tiny and half of those would probaby spend their time peeing anything they have up against the wall, leading to a lot more ill health, social and domestic problems.

    Like a lot of things said when taken in isolation sounds very well in theory but it needs to fit in with the practicalities of life - the majority of people need the discipline of work to keep them on the straight and level.

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    Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

    Its the same old story; these so called thinkers, philosophers etc dont understand enough about financial markets and the natural world. they spend too much time preocupied with people and the human world.

    This isnt the real world.

    Most of what they come with is simply opinion or ill-informed drivel IMHO.

    Their biggest mistake is that they never seem to appreciate the value of time. Its no good superimposing today's world on that of tomorrow. Even the so called climate experts make the same mistake in the long end climate synthetics by interpolating data on previously interpolated data and then thrust it forward as proof of a future world based on nothing more than today's data.

    Our climate here in Britain started cooling ten years ago and still they come with the same synthetics when a glance out of the window should be enough to indicate that its not happening.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    Give you a clue, I have sold all my bank stocks. Watch the space.

    Edited by picog
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    The whole Euro project has been a fudge from the very start. N European eurocrats embarking on a political mission to satisfy their ever fattening pompous egos!

    And to 'bribe' the S European nations & Ireland, handing out huge fat subsidies to 'improve' their infrastuctures like the roads and airports.

    in the meantime they promoted this Euro superstate on the world stage - it was never going to be a successful financial union - the economies of Euroland have never had fiscal commonality - doomed from the start.

    Now, these economies are constrained by the Euro straightjacket - no devaluation possible because they no longer have a sovereign currency.

    This is the biggest crisis facing the Western world - it's implications will be felt for many years to come - the crisis of 2 to 3 years ago will seem like a kiddie's tea party once the cyclonic 'financial crisis 2' winds blow in!

    Batten down the hatches - the Euro politicians have sold the people down the proverbial river! The dominos are starting to fall.

    And to think the UK media are still prattling on about some news paper scandal involving the Left's and Neo-Liberals pet hate - the Murdochs - small beer compared to this mega financial storm!

    Is today the day that, finally, the truths about the state of the global economy and 'Financial Crisis 2' came home to roost?:whistling:

    Update to my message of a couple of weeks ago - the US finally joins the 'party' or should that be wake?

    Edited by Bristle boy
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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    What do you know about banks right now that none of us knows? Should we be taking our cash out too?

    It might turn nasty ....If Italy, Spain and Belgium go under the banks here will hurt big time .....I don't know what exposure British banks have to this broader european debt, but its bound to be v significant.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    RBS announce there 1/2 yearly tomorrow, with more write off's from PPI and Ulster Bank's exposure to ROI property market. How long will the UK taxpayer put up with subsidising losses in the ROI?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The EU still obviously doesn't get it going from the latest announcements by Mr Sarkozy......

    What total idiots sorry not time to write more about the announcement in depth but it's the usual european fudge and compromise that won't achieve very much.

    Have to admit It's not often I agree with Vill, but I have no exposure to bank stocks (first time for nearly 10 years), I would be tempted at the following prices though.

    Barclays 140-160p

    RBS 25P

    LLoyds 27p

    This would allow plenty of room for a Spanish writedown, but not for Italy which I don't think it very realistic.

    As per by note above, this was all totally avoidable if only the EU had the balls to do the right thing.

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    Have to admit It's not often I agree with Vill, but I have no exposure to bank stocks (first time for nearly 10 years), I would be tempted at the following prices though.

    Barclays 140-160p

    RBS 25P

    LLoyds 27p

    This would allow plenty of room for a Spanish writedown, but not for Italy which I don't think it very realistic.

    As per by note above, this was all totally avoidable if only the EU had the balls to do the right thing.

    History repeats itself remember the South Sea Bubble - good idea to get in at the bottom.....whereever that is

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    Why do people keep insisting the market knows best? The market only knows best for the people in it not the vast majority.

    So some self appointed people in credit agencies decide that the country of indebtia, is going to struggle to pay it's debt & downgrades it's "creditworthiness". Result, Indebtia has to pay more to borrow & it's situation worsens. It goes from a country that has a chance in the long term, to one that has no chance in any term. Who benefits?

    The financial markets have become too big for our good. The massive rises in commodity prices have been driven more by speculators & futures buyers than anything else. What do they produce? They produce money on computers from nothing & we all pay for it.

    Time for people & governmaents all over the world to say NO!

    It won't happen of course, but the clouds are beginning to fall from the eyes of people, the world is run by institutions & individuals who are accountable to none but themselves. Politicians have allowed it to happen, indeed encouraged it in order to perpetuate their self important lives & illusion of power.

    It can't go on & it's the ordinary people who'll pay.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    History repeats itself remember the South Sea Bubble - good idea to get in at the bottom.....whereever that is

    http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif

    It could still be a very long way to the bottom if this is "Credit Crisis II - The Reality Strikes Back"

    post-1596-0-84590100-1312497335_thumb.pn

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst, near Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst, near Bexleyheath, Kent

    It might turn nasty ....If Italy, Spain and Belgium go under the banks here will hurt big time .....I don't know what exposure British banks have to this broader european debt, but its bound to be v significant.

    But what's the betting they will still be awarding themselves big bonuses and pats on the backs for a good job done?

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    It could still be a very long way to the bottom if this is "Credit Crisis II - The Reality Strikes Back"

    post-1596-0-84590100-1312497335_thumb.pn

    Merde - I should have sold up 4 years ago! :wallbash: - Looks like a double dip is on the way :(

    Why do people keep insisting the market knows best? The market only knows best for the people in it not the vast majority.

    So some self appointed people in credit agencies decide that the country of indebtia, is going to struggle to pay it's debt & downgrades it's "creditworthiness". Result, Indebtia has to pay more to borrow & it's situation worsens. It goes from a country that has a chance in the long term, to one that has no chance in any term. Who benefits?

    The financial markets have become too big for our good. The massive rises in commodity prices have been driven more by speculators & futures buyers than anything else. What do they produce? They produce money on computers from nothing & we all pay for it.

    Time for people & governmaents all over the world to say NO!

    It won't happen of course, but the clouds are beginning to fall from the eyes of people, the world is run by institutions & individuals who are accountable to none but themselves. Politicians have allowed it to happen, indeed encouraged it in order to perpetuate their self important lives & illusion of power.

    It can't go on & it's the ordinary people who'll pay.

    And some of it is out and out theft!!!!

    Edited by mike Meehan
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    Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

    Some of you might not like what I say but thanks to George Osbourne and Cameron Britain's borrowing costs have hit a 50 year low this month and our credit rating is completely secure, that would of not been the case if we still had labour in power with someone like Ed Balls as chancellor. All major economic organisations think Britain has got it right and that we should hold still even if our growth remains weak. The UK services PMI accelerated last month (to above trend levels) despite economic woes. The eurozone pmi slowed drastically even Germany. Britain is a safe haven in an economic storm and credit should be given to the coalition for taking action early before a storm occurred. Ed Balls is wrong to say Britain is too big to go like Greece, if the likes of the US and Italy can get downgrades because of debt, Britain certainly can. Saying that even if Cameron is proven right to take such drastic action and to have such a tough deficit reduction plan if the eurozone goes bust we'll go bust with it. But Britain is not at threat from a credit rating downgrade. This time last year it was very much a possibility. Under Obama's stimulus, growth in the US so far this year is even slower than that of Britain. Unemployment is rising in America despite a trillion dollar stimulus. In the US borrowing costs have soared. In Britain, yes the cuts have not kicked in yet but businesses must be feeling confident about the future because they wouldn't of hired 500,000 extra people in the last year and new business wouldn't be up like they are. Companies like BMW wouldn't be saying they are going to invest half a billion in the UK if they thought it was going to go bust? Who's been calling on Britain to follow America and have a plan B... oh yeah labour well that worked. America will now be taking the UK Plan A approach. Im telling you now, if this country votes in those labour idiots in 4 years time our country is doomed.

    ALERT

    Asian Markets PLUNGE in early trading suggesting another disaster day for EU and American markets later today.

    Edited by Wales123098
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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Why do people keep insisting the market knows best? The market only knows best for the people in it not the vast majority.

    So some self appointed people in credit agencies decide that the country of indebtia, is going to struggle to pay it's debt & downgrades it's "creditworthiness". Result, Indebtia has to pay more to borrow & it's situation worsens. It goes from a country that has a chance in the long term, to one that has no chance in any term. Who benefits?

    The financial markets have become too big for our good. The massive rises in commodity prices have been driven more by speculators & futures buyers than anything else. What do they produce? They produce money on computers from nothing & we all pay for it.

    Time for people & governmaents all over the world to say NO!

    It won't happen of course, but the clouds are beginning to fall from the eyes of people, the world is run by institutions & individuals who are accountable to none but themselves. Politicians have allowed it to happen, indeed encouraged it in order to perpetuate their self important lives & illusion of power.

    It can't go on & it's the ordinary people who'll pay.

    Sorry to be so dismissive but the markets basically run the world - simples. Commodities- buying and selling - stocks & shares - company values - it's just a fact i'm afraid.

    Govts can do v little when fear sets in.

    Just sit and wait and have a beer!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Only German money can really prop up the Eurozone now. The sticking plaster is estimnated at a mere €4 trillion now.

    Watching the financial news last night I have to agree that the Coalition's strategy is was widely acnowledged to have put Britains in a better shape to weather this storm... but we are still likely to get severely damaged by any contagion so it's not going to be pleasant if this does turn into Credit Crisis II. This one isn't a banking debt crisis but a government debt credit crisis with potential countries not banks needing bail-outs.

    As for Ed Balls... :help: The man has always been in defecit denial. His current silence (and that of Ed) is deafening!! Labour and a sound Economy are words that do not sit comfortably together. Brown had a brief flirtation with Prudence until he ditched her for a spendaholic tart! But that's history now. Whatever your political colours we're in the brown and smelly. The politicians and bankers in the last two decades have got us here.

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Unfortunately, for most people, those who run the world's economy do so in an entirely self-serving manner...The whole financial system is the cause of the impending world recession.

    The only purpose for blaming the Euro-zone, Barack Obama, the feckless unemployed, Gordon Brown etc. etc.,ad infinitum, is to deflect Joe Public's attention away from the real culprits: the banks, the bankers, and the financial institutions...

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    Sorry to be so dismissive but the markets basically run the world - simples. Commodities- buying and selling - stocks & shares - company values - it's just a fact i'm afraid.

    Govts can do v little when fear sets in.

    Just sit and wait and have a beer!

    Basically the markets are controlled by "Greed" and "Fear" and the majority of the traders have a herd instinct. It is fear that has the uppermost at the moment and it looks like the fall will continue until such time as the market looks really cheap, then there will be a bounce back up. Last time the footsie bottomed out at about 3500 - I wonder if this would be a point to look for.

    Personally it looks like I will have to put some of my plans on the back burner for a couple of years or so, though thankfully I have kept fairly liquid in the last few years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The fault for the sovereign debt crisis isn't down to the markets or banks or financial institutions.

    It's very simply down to the politicians and the normal people in the street.

    Italy is in trouble due to it's president being a sex mad, power hungry dictator. Instead of spending the 10+ years he has spent in power trying to help the people, he spent it paying off his little coalition partners called the northern league so that they would vote to keep him in power and to help him pass laws to prevent him from going to jail for sex with minors, fraud, blackmail and everything else he's done. (take note anybody that supports coalition governments and PR). The Italian people kept voting for him despite the blatant bribes now the markets have no faith that he will do the right thing so anybody investing in him and his country is having to pay higher yields...simples. and totally correct.

    Greece we know all about that they were upto to become bankrupt. Ireland over heated economy, with banks over extended and over reliance on a building boom. Spain has mounting debts a very un productive economy banks that were not opened upto the markets and so became very inefficient, over reliance again on housing and with 20+% unemployment little chance without major reform that the economy will get moving. Based on all this again the rating agencies are very right to be warning Spain and asking for higher yields.

    This sovereign debt crisis is very much down to bad politics, overly strong unions and lack of fiscal prudence.

    Very much agree re Brown, there are a few politicians that do things so appallingly bad that they are almost criminally negligent, there are alot of politicians that do things badly, Cameron is in the first group, Brown, Berlusconi, and Merkel are in the first group.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    Robert Peston on Radio 4 this morning was enlightening as always... read his blog for today...

    The response of governments around the world to the financial crisis and recession was to keep or even increase public spending, at a time of falling tax revenues, to compensate for the collapse of household consumption and private-sector investment.

    In other words, they ran abnormally high public sector deficits - peaking at deficits in the UK, US and parts of the eurozone at 10% or more of GDP - to prevent a global recession becoming a global depression.

    In that sense, it is fair to argue that the recent increases in the public-sector indebtedness of many developed economies is the consequence in large part of the decisions taken in 2007 and 2008 not to let the banks and the financial system collapse.

    Arguably the deleveraging of the banks, the shrinkage in their balance sheets, has been transferred to the state.

    The overall volume of indebtedness in the economy is therefore still with us - although it has been shuffled from financial sector to public sector.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14416959

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snow. Summer: Hot and Dry
  • Location: Just north of Cardiff sometimes Llantrisant.

    Robert Peston on Radio 4 this morning was enlightening as always... read his blog for today...

    The response of governments around the world to the financial crisis and recession was to keep or even increase public spending, at a time of falling tax revenues, to compensate for the collapse of household consumption and private-sector investment.

    In other words, they ran abnormally high public sector deficits - peaking at deficits in the UK, US and parts of the eurozone at 10% or more of GDP - to prevent a global recession becoming a global depression.

    In that sense, it is fair to argue that the recent increases in the public-sector indebtedness of many developed economies is the consequence in large part of the decisions taken in 2007 and 2008 not to let the banks and the financial system collapse.

    Arguably the deleveraging of the banks, the shrinkage in their balance sheets, has been transferred to the state.

    The overall volume of indebtedness in the economy is therefore still with us - although it has been shuffled from financial sector to public sector.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-14416959

    Yes the deficit did go up a lot in that period but it is worth remembering, the UK had a 6% deficit before the recession occured, that is the current deficit of Germany.... Britain was not prepared for the financial crash and Gordon Brown is to blame. Public sector debt has been increasing every year since 2001 and at a fairly rapid rate. Yes you have to spend a bit more during a recession but the reason the UK is making larger cuts than the likes of Germany and France is that other countries we're much better prepared. Our whole economic system needs reform and rebalancing and the coalition is right to be crack on and do what is right for the long term prosperity of our nation. Short term growth spikes built on debt do not work.

    Edited by Wales123098
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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    I think the 30's depression was very important in relation to how we dealt with this one.

    The lessons that the US FED, Brown etc thought they had learnt was that govt spending contraction helped prolong the recession and so thought the best way of dealing with it was to boost spending and cut taxes such as VAT in this country. However this wasn't really the case, the biggest drag was the protectionism which led to a lack of international growth..

    A recession occurs when things come out of balance and stops when things come back into balance....simples...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    The people I blame are Banks, Governments and financial situations. Although some blame can be put on the Mr and Mrs in the street the major blame is on the first three. People in the street really respond to what the first three tell them.

    Markets just respond to how Governments, Banks handle and plan to handle situation. Bluster may work on the man in street but less so on the markets.

    Back home rumours are that the Government is going to give a tax cut to the very rich. Yup got to look after your own.

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