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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    Written by someone who calls their website "economic collapse"

    Does a day go by when you're not fretting about something or searching for sites predicting some apocalyptic scenario? You think you're enlightened and the rest of us are naive. Even if you're right, at least the rest of us have had some fun along the way.

    I would hope the issues PP raises, (like this one anyway), are because he believes we should all be aware, we should all be outraged, and if enough people were both aware and outraged, then maybe enough of us would stand up and make enough noise to actually challenge some of these scandalous things which are happening, and which if nothing is done, could have a huge negative impact on us all. And i don't see anything wrong in that. If anything the depressing thing is not people like PP who keep trying to 'ring the alarm bells', it's the fact that everyone else is happy to play the ostrich. Sometimes just shrugging your shoulders and saying 'hey ho, that's life, and there's nothing I can do so why should I care' isn't the 'sensible grown up' thing to do, because some things are so wrong, so immoral, that we should all at least be shouting out our disgust.

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Those few misguided souls that have read my posts on this thread will know that I haven't put much faith in the unravelling Euro position, believing essentially that nobody will leave it.

    However there are stronger signs recently that we might be entering a death spiral.

    Firstly we have surging, record breaking Germany exports.

    Secondly we have struggling sovereign states that need growth to pay down the debts.

    The second one has been known for quite awhile now, the extent of the first though is the really killer and positive enforcer of the death spiral.

    The stronger Germany growth and low productivity(which will continue now that Germany has finally lifted it's barrier to the cheaper labour of the east european countries like poland), will lead to increased inflation and a fear that the economy might overheat. We have already seen the initial response from the ECB which was to raise rates. Todays German figures will only mean a higher rate rachet as we go through the year.

    The higher the rate rachet the more the debt ridden sovereign states will struggle, the more they struggle the more likely they are to leave the Euro or at least start talking about leaving the Euro.

    The more this talk goes on, the lower the Euro currency will go.

    The lower the currency the more devaluation competitiveness German exports have globally and the higher the chance of imported inflation.

    Which brings us back full circle to higher interest rates.

    There are a number of fixes to this cycle all with associated problems though.

    Firstly Germany could try and boost domestic demand and restrict it's exporters, problem: political suicide and there is no desire for the currenty government to spend more money (quite the reverse in real life).

    Secondly the ECB might go soft on inflation and interest rate increases, problem: the new head of the ECB has not yet been decided, the best candidate is an Italian who will likely do the "right thing", however the Germans are not very happy about having an Italian as head of the ECB and would prefer a central/western european candidate.

    As you might be able to guess, the solution to the Euro lies in the hands of the Germans now IMHO. I for one am not sure which way they will go...

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL

    The stronger Germany growth and low productivity(which will continue now that Germany has finally lifted it's barrier to the cheaper labour of the east european countries like poland), will lead to increased inflation and a fear that the economy might overheat. We have already seen the initial response from the ECB which was to raise rates. Todays German figures will only mean a higher rate rachet as we go through the year.

    The higher the rate rachet the more the debt ridden sovereign states will struggle, the more they struggle the more likely they are to leave the Euro or at least start talking about leaving the Euro.

    Which illustrates beautifully the nonsense of trying to enforce a single currency on such massively diverse economies. How can you have a single currency without a single economy ? Or am I missing something ?

    The more this talk goes on, the lower the Euro currency will go.

    Hopefully they'll keep keep talking for a long while yet, holiday in France planned for August !!!
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Those few misguided souls that have read my posts on this thread will know that I haven't put much faith in the unravelling Euro position, believing essentially that nobody will leave it.

    However there are stronger signs recently that we might be entering a death spiral.

    Firstly we have surging, record breaking Germany exports.

    Secondly we have struggling sovereign states that need growth to pay down the debts.

    The second one has been known for quite awhile now, the extent of the first though is the really killer and positive enforcer of the death spiral.

    The stronger Germany growth and low productivity(which will continue now that Germany has finally lifted it's barrier to the cheaper labour of the east european countries like poland), will lead to increased inflation and a fear that the economy might overheat. We have already seen the initial response from the ECB which was to raise rates. Todays German figures will only mean a higher rate rachet as we go through the year.

    The higher the rate rachet the more the debt ridden sovereign states will struggle, the more they struggle the more likely they are to leave the Euro or at least start talking about leaving the Euro.

    The more this talk goes on, the lower the Euro currency will go.

    The lower the currency the more devaluation competitiveness German exports have globally and the higher the chance of imported inflation.

    Which brings us back full circle to higher interest rates.

    There are a number of fixes to this cycle all with associated problems though.

    Firstly Germany could try and boost domestic demand and restrict it's exporters, problem: political suicide and there is no desire for the currenty government to spend more money (quite the reverse in real life).

    Secondly the ECB might go soft on inflation and interest rate increases, problem: the new head of the ECB has not yet been decided, the best candidate is an Italian who will likely do the "right thing", however the Germans are not very happy about having an Italian as head of the ECB and would prefer a central/western european candidate.

    As you might be able to guess, the solution to the Euro lies in the hands of the Germans now IMHO. I for one am not sure which way they will go...

    Nouriel Roubini recently mentioned the issue of exchange-rate problems and currency valuations (particularly since QE2):-

    Part of the problem, he says - is that China will be very slow to appreciate its currency and that has impacts on the inter-dependent nodes of the world economy. Could be a continuing bumpy-ride for the Euro..

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Nouriel Roubini recently mentioned the issue of exchange-rate problems and currency valuations (particularly since QE2):-

    Part of the problem, he says - is that China will be very slow to appreciate its currency and that has impacts on the inter-dependent nodes of the world economy. Could be a continuing bumpy-ride for the Euro..

    The EUR is dead and buried; second-class, economically speaking, nations will be booted out within the next five years. Essentially, the system works if competition is allowed to thrive; it doesn't work when economic blocks are created over large expanses of geography specfically where economic models are so diverse.

    Greece first, then Portugal, then Belgium, then Spain, and Italy - then the end.

    (and then you will all worship at the grandeur of the Tory's that stopped this mess ever hitting Britain??)

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The EUR is dead and buried; second-class, economically speaking, nations will be booted out within the next five years. Essentially, the system works if competition is allowed to thrive; it doesn't work when economic blocks are created over large expanses of geography specfically where economic models are so diverse.

    Greece first, then Portugal, then Belgium, then Spain, and Italy - then the end.

    (and then you will all worship at the grandeur of the Tory's that stopped this mess ever hitting Britain??)

    Pretty much.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Whoever would have thought that a rape accusation(regardless or true or false) would have the potential to push the entire Europe zone over.

    The gap left by DSK as head of the IMF and the lead IMF figure in the Greek bail out has knock on effects.

    The IMF is now being much more determined to push Greece to borrow less in the short term and to allow a soft restructering to occur.

    The ECB have responded by saying that any restructering is out of the question and is a sop to the UK/US markets.

    Greece is failing to get its deficit down as growth is absent it's not able to get it's new yearly borrowing to below 10%.

    All the time interest rates are increasing in the markets.

    DSK, had the ability to span the IMF,ECB divide and to come up with a solution palettable to both, without him a real solution or even a partial solution is no nearer and the prospect for the Euro countries only goes down....

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Better get DSK out of jail pay the girl to say she made it all up then Bobs your Uncle.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Better get DSK out of jail pay the girl to say she made it all up then Bobs your Uncle.

    Perhaps she has been paid in advance?? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

    There are some powerful people out there with a lot to gain from DSK being locked up.

    http://www.euronews.net/2011/05/18/majority-of-french-think-dsk-was-set-up/

    Edited by Kiwi
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Perhaps she has been paid in advance?? http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ohmy.gif

    There are some powerful people out there with a lot to gain from DSK being locked up.

    http://www.euronews.net/2011/05/18/majority-of-french-think-dsk-was-set-up/

    Well we've given PP two conspiracy theories here haven't we. From what I read this lunchtime (note not The Scum or Scum of the world) he sounds a bit of pervert so could well be guilty as charged.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    Well we've given PP two conspiracy theories here haven't we. From what I read this lunchtime (note not The Scum or Scum of the world) he sounds a bit of pervert so could well be guilty as charged.

    Agreed he sounds a right deviant!

    Interested to hear PPs view....there's even an oil angle!

    http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/05/16/oil_gold_and_strauss_kahn

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    What are peoples views over Greece struggling to pay it's debts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    What are peoples views over Greece struggling to pay it's debts.

    Number one step for the Greeks — start collecting the taxes. Tax evasion/avoidance is a national pastime in Greece and has contributed significantly to their economic downfall I believe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

    What are peoples views over Greece struggling to pay it's debts.

    Sell, sell seems to be order of the day with the sale of some Ports, Water companies and Telecoms announced today.

    Greece seems to be incapable of getting its house in order and is dragging the rest of Europe down with it. Markets fell by 2% in France, Germany, UK etc today ...on the back of this Greek farce. Meanwhile Italy faces a credit rating downgrade, while the Spanish are living in lala land while protesting over the austerity measures. Happy days.

    Perhaps flash Gordon will get the IMF job and balls Europe up even more than it is already!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    What happens when Greece runs out of things to sell???

    Perhaps they should have defaulted right at the beginning.

    As you say though Spain and Italy are also creaking and Italy is too big to bail out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    What happens when Greece runs out of things to sell???

    Perhaps they should have defaulted right at the beginning.

    As you say though Spain and Italy are also creaking and Italy is too big to bail out.

    Italy is the worst of all since most European banks are holders of Italian debt. Greece is going to have to default, or try to default with the consequence that the ECB takes on the entirety of Greek debt, and the holy grail of direct Euro-taxation becomes a reality for all EU citizens (fancy paying another 2% on top of UK's deficit spending?)

    Italy will just default and stick it's fingers up to the world. Portugal and Spain will use smoke and mirrors until the very last moment, when they also will be forced to default.

    The elephant in the room is still Belgium - they're not in good shape, either.

    Sell, sell seems to be order of the day with the sale of some Ports, Water companies and Telecoms announced today.

    Greece seems to be incapable of getting its house in order and is dragging the rest of Europe down with it. Markets fell by 2% in France, Germany, UK etc today ...on the back of this Greek farce. Meanwhile Italy faces a credit rating downgrade, while the Spanish are living in lala land while protesting over the austerity measures. Happy days.

    Perhaps flash Gordon will get the IMF job and balls Europe up even more than it is already!!

    Not too concerned with markets, TBH. This looks like a risk consolidation rather than a panic sell ie a whole load of new credit information has turned up, with the Iceland volcano, and Chinese demand for commodities projected to weaken: so that means the miners, the airlines, and the banks all faced reduction in share prices - which makes up a substantial value of the FTSE 100 amongst others.

    It happens from time to time. Nice if you sell early, and rebuy late, or, even better, short the market indices :)

    (The G8 meeting is another opportunity - rumour and speculation rife in the media the day/evening before, and amounting to nothing 12 hours later. Remember, the facts don't have to be, only enough people have to believe in them to be self-fulfilling)

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The United States is preparing to escalate wars worldwide.

    A new petition from the American Civil Liberties Union:-

    A few top congressional insiders are aiming to sneak new worldwide war authority in to a "must pass" piece of legislation: the Defense Authorization bill.

    This new war authority would give the president — any president — the power to unilaterally take our country to war wherever, whenever and however he or she sees fit. It would essentially declare a worldwide war without end.

    It is shocking that Congress is entertaining such legislation at a time when many are looking to see an end to escalating conflict and abuses of power in the name of fighting terrorism.

    Take action! Tell your representative to oppose new worldwide war authority.

    https://secure.aclu.org/site/Advocacy?cmd=display&page=UserAction&id=3195&s_subsrc=110511_aumf_ac

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    I wonder what they want. They also have a problem with Islamic extremism are they going too invade instead?

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David "Danny" Blanchflower tells Robert Miller that a failure by the ECB to tackle the debt problems in the Euro zone means a default is inevitable and that the crisis could be heading through Spain to France.

    http://www.telegraph...inevitable.html

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    "It is clear that what must happen for these schemes to work is to reduce the average American income from $40,000 a year to $4,000 a year so that wages can be uniform across the globe."

    This is truly a race to the bottom. It's time to throw these money-changers out, out damn you!

    :angry:

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

    For the first time maybe since the Vietnam War or certainly since the civil rights movement, there are some darkening storm clouds on the civility horizon. A growing number of voices are continuing to suggest that if this economy doesn't turn around, and people can't start feeling optimistic about their futures again, we could be headed for some ugly scenarios. A new CNN poll says 48 percent of Americans think the country is headed for another Great Depression in the next twelve months. That is a stunning number.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    James Carville, who in 1992 told Bill Clinton, "It's the economy stupid," says the current economy is so bad, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest. And unless things start changing for the better, it's a distinct possibility.

    Our country is bankrupt and our government refuses to do anything about it. Unemployment is stuck above 9 percent. Millions of Americans are out of work, some for a number of years now. The value of peoples' homes is sinking below the break-even line. In the most recent jobs report, more than half of the private sector jobs that were added were at McDonald's.

    For young people coming out of the nation's colleges and universities, their families having invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in their education, the outlook is grim.

    Add in the early record breaking heat in the cities in the East and we might not even have to wait until 2012. It could become a long, hot, ugly summer.

    Here’s my question to you: What are the chances the U.S. economy could eventually trigger violence in our country?

    http://caffertyfile....in-our-country/

    Edited by PersianPaladin
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    Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

    FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

    For the first time maybe since the Vietnam War or certainly since the civil rights movement, there are some darkening storm clouds on the civility horizon. A growing number of voices are continuing to suggest that if this economy doesn't turn around, and people can't start feeling optimistic about their futures again, we could be headed for some ugly scenarios. A new CNN poll says 48 percent of Americans think the country is headed for another Great Depression in the next twelve months. That is a stunning number.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    James Carville, who in 1992 told Bill Clinton, "It's the economy stupid," says the current economy is so bad, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest. And unless things start changing for the better, it's a distinct possibility.

    Our country is bankrupt and our government refuses to do anything about it. Unemployment is stuck above 9 percent. Millions of Americans are out of work, some for a number of years now. The value of peoples' homes is sinking below the break-even line. In the most recent jobs report, more than half of the private sector jobs that were added were at McDonald's.

    For young people coming out of the nation's colleges and universities, their families having invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in their education, the outlook is grim.

    Add in the early record breaking heat in the cities in the East and we might not even have to wait until 2012. It could become a long, hot, ugly summer.

    Here’s my question to you: What are the chances the U.S. economy could eventually trigger violence in our country?

    http://caffertyfile....in-our-country/

    Very interesting post. I personally think that suggesting civil unrest in the short term is premature. Unemployment rates at 9% are bad, but they could be significantly worse, and the fact that McDonalds hired a huge number of workers is irrelevant as long as they are jobs. I think the real problem facing America is that they are getting nothing done. The republicans and democrats are just fighting. They would be better completely backing one side than dithering over every issue. I don't know exactly whats happening with their economic situation and what the plans are to fix it, but i do know that if they can't agree on how to go about it they will get nowhere.

    I like to think the UK is in a different situation, in that we will recover economically and the debt will eventually decrease, but of course this relies on America no causing another crisis.

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Very interesting post. I personally think that suggesting civil unrest in the short term is premature. Unemployment rates at 9% are bad, but they could be significantly worse, and the fact that McDonalds hired a huge number of workers is irrelevant as long as they are jobs. I think the real problem facing America is that they are getting nothing done. The republicans and democrats are just fighting. They would be better completely backing one side than dithering over every issue. I don't know exactly whats happening with their economic situation and what the plans are to fix it, but i do know that if they can't agree on how to go about it they will get nowhere.

    I like to think the UK is in a different situation, in that we will recover economically and the debt will eventually decrease, but of course this relies on America no causing another crisis.

    It's bad enough that the nation's jobless rate is 9.7%. But the real national employment rate is even higher than the U.S. Department of Labor's May figure shows.

    The official unemployment index, based on a monthly survey of sample households, counts only people who reported looking for work in the past four weeks. It doesn't account for part-time workers who want to work more hours but can't, given the tight job market. And it doesn't include those who have given up trying to find work.

    When the underemployed and the discouraged are added to the numbers, the unemployment rate rises to 16.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a unit of the Labor Department, began tracking this alternative measure -- known as the U-6 for its department classification -- in 1995 after economists lobbied for a method comparable to the way Japan, Canada and Western Europe count their unemployed.

    Cont.

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/The-real-unemployment-rate.aspx

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl
  • Location: Near Lauder, SE Scotland, 175 m asl

    It's bad enough that the nation's jobless rate is 9.7%. But the real national employment rate is even higher than the U.S. Department of Labor's May figure shows.

    Makes you wonder why some people aspire to a US capitalist/fully free market type system; huge debts and massive unemployment seems to be the result. Ok, lot of rich people, just huge number of poor too.

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