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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    This roller coaster is going to run and run and I can only see one outcome. The failure and ultimate breakup of the €urozone.

    I agree; I was just trying to be nice.

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    I agree; I was just trying to be nice.

    :):)

    Markets rallying this morning but I doubt if it will last.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    :):)

    Markets rallying this morning but I doubt if it will last.

    It's a rally on expectations. Once the profit taking happens, pessimism about EUR will set in once more. It really is in a dire strait.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    The Euro won't go under it can't IMO, it's like saying what would happen if Scotland had it's own currency. ?.

    It would need several years to plan for.

    Currency systems, banking systems, payment systems, printing of money, cashiers etc would all need changing.

    On to Ireland, the markets are now down, they nodoubt went up on the hope that the short term gravy train would continue for a couple of years yet and are now probably realising that this won't be the case.

    I've said it before and will say it again, nobody gets out of financial trouble by simply borrowing more money, unless they use it to restructure their existing debt.

    No restructure of existing debt is on the cards so this is a not going to work.

    Re the Irish banking crisis the damage is done, Irish banks no hold less capital(savings) than ever before in comparison to the real loan books, nobody has any faith in these banks anymore and announcements and debt downgrades such as todays are not going to help.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL
  • Location: Crowborough, East Sussex 180mASL

    Wow. Reading some of the comments on ths thread, anyone could be forgiven for thinking some folk would relish the idea of freefall economic chaos as a fun passtime.

    Rather than the Eurozone trailblazing to Armageddon, Ireland has shown there are other options that, whilst unpalatable and potentially political suicide, are preferable.

    Ejection from the Eurozone for any economy means their new currency devaluation, rapid inflation, increases in unemployment, further mortgage and other debt defaulting, further falls in house prices and with it perceived wealth, further swingeing austerity reforms, tax increases, civil disquiet, infrastructure stagnation.....the list goes on.

    Of course exit allows the revaluation of currencies, Spain, Greece and Portugal would once again become popular tourist destinations. Speculators would soon move in, buying companies and real estate at bargain prices bolstered by the strength of their own currencies. Governments would be free to offer Investment incentives. Perhaps tax breaks, etc and would begin to look attractive to wealthy economies once again.

    Support for UberFrau Merkel would increase as Germany no longer needed to bail out dead end economies with German tax receipts. New countries lining up to join the zone would question the wisdom of their path since the major reason for inclusion of cash injection will all but dry up.

    Exclusion would be temporary (relative) as the consolidated Eurozone countries restructured the rules and fixed the politically derived deficiencies in economic policy, whilst ejected economies licked wounds and rebuilt themselves.

    For sure, the danger to some of those ejected economies is the rise of the sleeping militants who will try to usurp power from democracy. The Chinese model of state managed capitalism would surely be seen as a newly emerging alternative to the perception of a failing western liberal democratic model.

    Armageddon? No

    Chaotic collapse? No

    Managed restructured Eurozone? Yes

    Bleak times? Yes for a time.

    Civil unrest? Yes for a time

    Stabilisation of the remaining Eurozone? Gradual but positive.

    Civil war? No

    ffO.

    Edited by full_frontal_occlusion
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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    Ireland should just default.

    It has plenty going for it without the debt. And the solution is more debt.

    Sad article in the Guardian

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/nov/18/irish-people-frightened-recession-ireland

    Curiously, I feel we this is the sort of article that would have been written about the UK if we had been subjected to 5 more years of deficit denying Labour. Not that the alternative is going to be that pretty.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Wow. Reading some of the comments on ths thread, anyone could be forgiven for thinking some folk would relish the idea of freefall economic chaos as a fun passtime.

    Rather than the Eurozone trailblazing to Armageddon, Ireland has shown there are other options that, whilst unpalatable and potentially political suicide, are preferable.

    Ejection from the Eurozone for any economy means their new currency devaluation, rapid inflation, increases in unemployment, further mortgage and other debt defaulting, further falls in house prices and with it perceived wealth, further swingeing austerity reforms, tax increases, civil disquiet, infrastructure stagnation.....the list goes on.

    Of course exit allows the revaluation of currencies, Spain, Greece and Portugal would once again become popular tourist destinations. Speculators would soon move in, buying companies and real estate at bargain prices bolstered by the strength of their own currencies. Governments would be free to offer Investment incentives. Perhaps tax breaks, etc and would begin to look attractive to wealthy economies once again.

    Support for UberFrau Merkel would increase as Germany no longer needed to bail out dead end economies with German tax receipts. New countries lining up to join the zone would question the wisdom of their path since the major reason for inclusion of cash injection will all but dry up.

    Exclusion would be temporary (relative) as the consolidated Eurozone countries restructured the rules and fixed the politically derived deficiencies in economic policy, whilst ejected economies licked wounds and rebuilt themselves.

    For sure, the danger to some of those ejected economies is the rise of the sleeping militants who will try to usurp power from democracy. The Chinese model of state managed capitalism would surely be seen as a newly emerging alternative to the perception of a failing western liberal democratic model.

    Armageddon? No

    Chaotic collapse? No

    Managed restructured Eurozone? Yes

    Bleak times? Yes for a time.

    Civil unrest? Yes for a time

    Stabilisation of the remaining Eurozone? Gradual but positive.

    Civil war? No

    ffO.

    OMG: this is why we're in this situation. Please read the above and take note. We don't want our children to deal with this.

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    The Euro won't go under it can't IMO, it's like saying what would happen if Scotland had it's own currency. ?.

    Entertain me why can't it go under??? What happens if all countries decide to go back to their old currencies??? Just curious???

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Entertain me why can't it go under??? What happens if all countries decide to go back to their old currencies??? Just curious???

    Or decide to declare monetary sovereignty and create their own money (as opposed to borrow it from the bankers) :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Loving the vaiety
  • Location: Breasclete, Isle of Lewis

    Wow.... gotta hand it to Eire. As well as a Economic crisis they go and throw a political one into the mix too this evening... sure the bond traders will be lining up to reinvest in ireland now (thinks not)

    All eyes on Portugal now, their banks r in the same boat as Ireland as the Portuguese govt has been using brussels hand outs to give to the banks to keep them going as they cant borrow from the market. This surely isnt sustainable either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Or decide to declare monetary sovereignty and create their own money (as opposed to borrow it from the bankers) :p

    Yep - and that redistributes risk. And on that point, that's all that's going on - the ECB are redistributing debt. There are NO other options apart from the redistribution of debt or default, and the list above from FFO is just daydreaming, and certainly the half glass full option.

    These are serious times, and the impacts of the bifurcation of the Euro will affect every citizen of the world. Eventually. In my view credit crunch v2.0 is much more serious than v1.0. This is on a simple basis - we've tried everything else, and it just didn't work - that even the simplest economic model shows it doesn't work is irrelevant, but the washing the feet of Keynes is over. The experiment is over. Economic union without political union is an academic idea that doesn't even work on paper. Or in people's heads. Madness.

    I've said it before - if you have debt spend as much as you can paying it off. Do not save. Do not invest. Pay off your debt. The future variance on the cost of ownership of debt is a risk that is just too high for the normal consumer. Be austere, think long, not short noone else will do it, and in less than ten years, you will win (of course, this presumes that everyone takes no notice of what I say apart from you and I - but still, if you don't owe, you always win, regardless)

    All eyes on Portugal now, their banks r in the same boat as Ireland as the Portuguese govt has been using brussels hand outs to give to the banks to keep them going as they cant borrow from the market. This surely isnt sustainable either.

    The ECB are arrogant enough to believe they are the equivalent of the Fed. Not true, of course - indeed, not even in the ball park.

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    I've said it before and will say it again, nobody gets out of financial trouble by simply borrowing more money, unless they use it to restructure their existing debt.

    And that attitude is exactly why we're in this sh i t. You can't escape the 'joys' of compound interest. Default, like Stu says, is the only option. Of course, restructuring places the burden on our kids - I don't want to do that, I'd rather deal with the core problem.

    I actually think the problem is so serious that we may even, at the extreme end of the spectrum, set up a global bank that takes on the debt so countries can actually manage their current accounts. A step to far? Today, yes - tomorrow, who knows?

    GB stands to make a fortune out of this, btw, as does Germany. Anglo Saxon financial empire on the cards? It's a possibility.

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    All eyes on Portugal now, their banks r in the same boat as Ireland as the Portuguese govt has been using brussels hand outs to give to the banks to keep them going as they cant borrow from the market. This surely isnt sustainable either.

    Don't discount France's problems, either. Could it be that the recent military unions of GB, Germany, and France are just a coincidence?

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    The ECB are arrogant enough to believe they are the equivalent of the Fed. Not true, of course - indeed, not even in the ball park.

    I think we have to be grateful for that. If fiscal policy gets any wilder stateside, they will have consider renaming themselves as the feral reserve

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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    The optimism typically found in the International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Outlook report is strangely missing this year. Instead, the IEA is taking a far more sober perspective on the world’s oil-consuming future due to our ever-greater reliance on costly unconventional oil sources.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/commentary/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/even-the-international-energy-agency-expects-peak-oil-now/article1810104/

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Spain has the highest interest rates(international) now for 8 years and portugal's rates are now in the insolvent bracket.

    ... and Belgium are now a named risk, too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    ... and Belgium are now a named risk, too.

    Time for EU to default on mass that would be interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Time for EU to default on mass that would be interesting.

    More likely is northern states excluding Ireland, France, and Belgium to kick everyone else out, forming two economic blocs. Seriously could see the UK involved if Scandinavia are interested.

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    Iceland’s President Olafur R. Grimsson said his country is better off than Ireland thanks to the government’s decision to allow the banks to fail two years ago and because the krona could be devalued.

    “The difference is that in Iceland we allowed the banks to fail,†Grimsson said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Mark Barton today. “These were private banks and we didn’t pump money into them in order to keep them going; the state did not shoulder the responsibility of the failed private banks.â€

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-26/iceland-faring-much-better-after-permitting-banks-to-fail-grimsson-says.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Well things still arn't going well for the Euro are they....The Irish bail out has gone down like a damp squid 4 leaf clover.

    A few facts if you've got a half decent credit rating then you can get an unsecured loan cheaper than Ireland, Greece or Portugal i.e your considered less risk.

    If you want a mortgage you can get one cheap than Spain can borrow atm.

    IMO this kinds of puts it in perspective.

    Re Ireland money is still being pulled from the Irish banks by the depositors. It doesn't help that over 50% of the deposits in these banks are actually from companies and inderviduals abroad. So they can move the money quite easily.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    More likely is northern states excluding Ireland, France, and Belgium to kick everyone else out, forming two economic blocs. Seriously could see the UK involved if Scandinavia are interested.

    You obviously don't understand what is happening. This is a whirlpool starting on the outside and working inward. The UK is piling up unsustainable debt along with Italy and France. Portugal is the next dominoe then Spain then Italy then the UK then the heart of Europe - France. Germany is much more astute and will pull the plug as the edifice comes crashing down. The UK will go bankrupt along with every other EU state except for Germany - mark my words. The debt ridden states including the UK are being picked off one by one.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    You obviously don't understand what is happening. This is a whirlpool starting on the outside and working inward. The UK is piling up unsustainable debt along with Italy and France. Portugal is the next dominoe then Spain then Italy then the UK then the heart of Europe - France. Germany is much more astute and will pull the plug as the edifice comes crashing down. The UK will go bankrupt along with every other EU state except for Germany - mark my words. The debt ridden states including the UK are being picked off one by one.

    Why do I obviously not understand what is happening?

    Edited by VillagePlank
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