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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    I still don't see a EU or even a Euro break up, what the Euro is demonstrating atm is how flexible it can be, nobody imagined that real interest rates could be this diverse for countries that share the same currency and this is a good sign IMO.

    Maybe Ireland will have to raise it's absurdly low corporate tax rate, it seems to want a third world tax rate but first world public spending.

    The EU and Eurozone 'experiment' was always doomed - you can't have monetary union without common monetary policies in every member country. Fiscal policy has to be consistent in all Eurozone countries and it never has been.

    You can have free trade agreements, co-operation on borders, security, etc without the necessity of a formal state of union, where the only winners are the Eurocrats. The whole EU experiment was just a political ego trip for our 'political partners' on the continent.

    Most countries' citizens were hoodwinked into thinking they'd one day become part of a superpower, in terms of economy and monetary wealth. The poorer countries 20 years ago (today's PIGS) were given massive subsidies to improve their infrastructures and industrial bases , so they could compete - the poorer nations fell for it and are now paying the price of the Euro inflexibility.

    If they still had their own currencies they'd be able to 'flex' their countries' economies to help in crisis times.

    The only ones to have benefited from the EU are the Eurocrats and their egos!

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    As harve has touched on, re inflation and interest rates, its a hell of complicated set up to understand correctly (nobody does imho), the news always presents it very clean, simplistically and wrong.

    Go Greek strikes Go.... It's not often I support strikes, but in this I do. They are absolutely right that Greece does not need more lending. It can't afford what it owes full stop, they still need t

    Afraid not, old bean; China has been a Communist People's Republic since, when, 1947? Just because it's a Tory government that's doing all the kow-towing makes not a jot of difference...But I bet that

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Came across this report from the CIA five years ago. http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Perhaps they will be right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Spoke to German colleague, yesterday, and he reports that the German public are very unhappy at having to bail out, essentially, 'third-world economies, who have no right being in the EU in the first place'

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    I know you should forgive and forget, but even to this day, I still think Germany owes much of Europe a favour or two, even if it's not the specific countries we're talking about here?

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Having their own currencies didn't help Iceland nor Latvia just to name a couple, Ireland would have gone to the IMF a year ago if not for the Euro currency IMO.

    Equally re flexibility, yes having your own currency does give you more flexibility, however it's arguable how much control countries have over their own currency also re Interest rates.(for example the UK can't be much different from the Euro and US on rates), so is this freedom too real ?.

    Would an Irish central bank have been able to pump 160bn of loans and loan guarantees to it's banking structure ?, because thats what the ECB has done for Ireland.

    They can't do QE but the above is a form of QE anyway and certaintly fulfilled the same need.

    I am not a big Euro supporter but I do appreciate what it's doing and certaintly the German POV.

    The ECB has given over 300bn of support to the PIGS banking industries in the last 12 months, largely off the bank of the German credit worthyness.

    Anyway Ireland looks set to have agreed an approx 60-80bn of new loans from the ECB, the problem is that this obviously needs to be paid back, if it's going to be used next year to prevent Ireland from going to the money markets then that will help, if it's to fill a hole in extra funding thats needed (i.e for the banking industry) then this is a worst case solution IMO. Ireland can't get out of this by borrowing more, they are borrowing more than they can afford already, and the Irish people probably arn't ready or able to support more fiscal tighening.

    Re Germany I've said this many times, but what they need to do is increase their imports from the other EU members, at the moment Germany is a sucking the life out of Europe, but in a predator style rather than a symbiotic or even parasitical way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Spoke to German colleague, yesterday, and he reports that the German public are very unhappy at having to bail out, essentially, 'third-world economies, who have no right being in the EU in the first place'

    Funny at one time they wanted them in. Can't blame them for being a bit annoyed. It's a bit like us being annoyed the tankers for getting us in this mess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    Spoke to German colleague, yesterday, and he reports that the German public are very unhappy at having to bail out, essentially, 'third-world economies, who have no right being in the EU in the first place'

    lol - yeah Ireland is really third world is'nt it? I wonder if that guy would remind us what countries for the last 30 years have consistently broken EU rules.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    I know you should forgive and forget, but even to this day, I still think Germany owes much of Europe a favour or two, even if it's not the specific countries we're talking about here?

    why do they???
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    lol - yeah Ireland is really third world is'nt it? I wonder if that guy would remind us what countries for the last 30 years have consistently broken EU rules.

    I think GB will get annonyed when they realise that the austerity savings forecast to be made this year are, now, almost certainly off to prop up Ireland's failure. To be fair, though, the idea of the Euro is that weaker economies get the benefit of a larger economic block, although most of the talk is about Ireland artificially making themselves ultra-comptetitive with, particularly, very low CT rates, at the expense of everyone else losing out, and, now, the bail-out must come from those who lost out over the last decade, or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    He knows full well what I mean.

    I'm not normally one for backward-looking jingoistic revenge type stuff, but particularly with the 2nd world war, I think you can really lay the blame for that at Germany's door, and while places like Britain only finished paying off war loans a few years ago, Germany did benefit from basically starting again. I'm not saying they shouldn't have started again, and been given a fresh start, and I realise I'm being hopelessly simplistic. But if the German people feel a bit miffed at having to help out other countries over the next few years, I think they should, maybe, just bear in mind that they've actually been treated pretty well over the past 70 years, and, well, much of this was their idea after all. Can they really want to have their cake and eat it?

    I don't think it's a cheap point, I don't think it's irrelevant. I just think perhaps if I was German, I'd keep things in perspective.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    He knows full well what I mean.

    I'm not normally one for backward-looking jingoistic revenge type stuff, but particularly with the 2nd world war, I think you can really lay the blame for that at Germany's door, and while places like Britain only finished paying off war loans a few years ago, Germany did benefit from basically starting again. I'm not saying they shouldn't have started again, and been given a fresh start, and I realise I'm being hopelessly simplistic. But if the German people feel a bit miffed at having to help out other countries over the next few years, I think they should, maybe, just bear in mind that they've actually been treated pretty well over the past 70 years, and, well, much of this was their idea after all. Can they really want to have their cake and eat it?

    I don't think it's a cheap point, I don't think it's irrelevant. I just think perhaps if I was German, I'd keep things in perspective.

    A couple of points:

    (i) Nationalism, and jingoism tend to excel within harsh economic times. Nazi Germany was no exception.

    (ii) The 30-something year old Germans have about as much connection with Nazi Germany, now, as we Brits have with the atrocities of the British Empire.

    Moving onwards - questions about the French economy are being raised, now .... more later.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    Moving on? Sorry, I didn't mean to get in the way VP.

    I agree, and am fully aware of your first point (which doesn't actually seem relevent to the point I was making as I was talking about myself), and your second point isn't something I was trying to argue. I'm talking about collectively as a nation. I would always hope Britain tried to consider its past behaviour in any foreign affairs, despite the fact that I'm a 30-something. I would expect the same of any civilised country.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Moving on? Sorry, I didn't mean to get in the way VP.

    Sorry, bad turn of phrase - 'Something entirely different' is more what I meant. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    A couple of points:

    (i) Nationalism, and jingoism tend to excel within harsh economic times. Nazi Germany was no exception.

    (ii) The 30-something year old Germans have about as much connection with Nazi Germany, now, as we Brits have with the atrocities of the British Empire.

    Moving onwards - questions about the French economy are being raised, now .... more later.

    I totally agree with point i) The rise in nationalism/protectionism is only going to get worse in these harsh time and is to be expected.

    Point ii) is true but memories run very long and deep.

    I know this news is a few months old now but Greece certainly hasn't forgotten the previous decades.

    Germany parries Greek broadside over Nazi occupation (Reuters)

    And conversely...

    Most Germans want Greece thrown out of euro (Telegraph)

    Edited by kar999
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    Sorry, bad turn of phrase - 'Something entirely different' is more what I meant. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blush.gif

    Don't worry. Occasionally I come across as perhaps a bit grumpy or bombastic when I don't mean to. Most of the time though, it's completely intentional.

    :air_kiss:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Has anyone noticed how nationalism seems to be on the up again in the EU???

    I suspect this trend will continue as well.

    Not surprised Germanys fed up bailing out Greece and it will also probably get upset bailing out Ireland and then Spain and Portugal if things continue to go wrong.

    One thing that people forget is that people have a national identity nobodies a European they are either German, French, Scottish, Pakistani etc.

    These identities will get stronger as the EU continues too disintegrate.

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    Has anyone noticed how nationalism seems to be on the up again in the EU???

    I suspect this trend will continue as well.

    Not surprised Germanys fed up bailing out Greece and it will also probably get upset bailing out Ireland and then Spain and Portugal if things continue to go wrong.

    One thing that people forget is that people have a national identity nobodies a European they are either German, French, Scottish, Pakistani etc.

    These identities will get stronger as the EU continues too disintegrate.

    Ulster Prods. are British and proud of it - something the Scots in particular should get a handle on.:aggressive:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Ireland forced into taking a large loan. However this loan is too only stabilise the banks. So unless they can get the country growing again they'll have another huge debt hole. Spain and Portugal next no doubt as the Markets turn their attention to them.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

    A record one in six American families went hungry last year because they did not have enough food, a shock survey has revealed.

    Some 17.4million U.S. households - 50 million people - were classified as ‘food insecure’ which meant they regularly skipped meals even if they wanted to eat.

    Others went for entire days without eating and handed round smaller portion sizes to make their meagre offerings suffice.

    The news comes as it is revealed that top U.S. executives saw their pay and bonuses shoot up last year in the face of the worst recession for 80 years.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1330254/50MILLION-Americans-starve-Wall-Street-executive-pay-rockets.html#ixzz15ycMAsZQ

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

    I'm not normally one for backward-looking jingoistic revenge type stuff, but particularly with the 2nd world war, I think you can really lay the blame for that at Germany's door, and while places like Britain only finished paying off war loans a few years ago, Germany did benefit from basically starting again. I'm not saying they shouldn't have started again, and been given a fresh start, and I realise I'm being hopelessly simplistic. But if the German people feel a bit miffed at having to help out other countries over the next few years, I think they should, maybe, just bear in mind that they've actually been treated pretty well over the past 70 years, and, well, much of this was their idea after all. Can they really want to have their cake and eat it?

    I don't think it's a cheap point, I don't think it's irrelevant. I just think perhaps if I was German, I'd keep things in perspective.

    yeah simplistic in the extreme...maybe you should read up on your history and know exactly what happened to the german people and nation at the end of the war and what followed..and then maybe you would realise it is old news and is totally irelevant.
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    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

    Ireland forced into taking a large loan. However this loan is too only stabilise the banks. So unless they can get the country growing again they'll have another huge debt hole. Spain and Portugal next no doubt as the Markets turn their attention to them.

    Yup - Portugal next, because they have extremely serious structural problems, followed swiftly by Spain, and then, Italy. If Italy and Spain go to the ECB, France won't be long behind, and then the great EUR experiment is truly dead in the water.

    In the meantime, the US continues to close it's doors (by QE) to exporters in an effort to mitigate Chinese artifical currency control - and interest rates are going to have to go through the roof in China, as inflation, there, continues to get more and more serious. But will China release it's currency to market forces? I don't think so, either, and their short-term protectionism, no doubt a hangover from communism, will end up in China shutting it's doors as excessive economic capacity is left idle (they will finally have to enrich their poor to take up the slack) and even significant investments in mining and commodity extraction, in particular within Africa, will mean nothing as commodity prices eventually collapse. Not before a huge bubble 1st Qtr next year - watch out for Cu breaking through the $10,000/mt barrier around Jan, as being a sign of a commodity price collapse - profit taking will lead to general sell-off in my view despite 400kmt shortages against demand.

    But make no bones about it - no-one is being friendly to the Irish; the bail out is an attempt to stop contagion. A very difficult thing to do in my view, since they all share the same currency. I mean, would you bail out Kent to save GBP? And if you did, would it work?

    Simple answer is 'No' - you'd have to 'nationalise' the county ... but that's another story.

    Edited by VillagePlank
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland
  • Location: Nr Appleby in Westmorland

    yeah simplistic in the extreme...maybe you should read up on your history and know exactly what happened to the german people and nation at the end of the war and what followed..and then maybe you would realise it is old news and is totally irelevant.

    Oh. Ok.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    As for Ireland, I think the view of the Eagle is very rose tinted. One way ticket to the IMF in 2011.

    Seems I gave the Irish economy a little too much credit. Didn't even make it through to the end of 2010

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    Posted
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'
  • Location: Sth Staffs/Shrops 105m/345' & NW Snowdonia 219m/719'

    A record one in six American families went hungry last year because they did not have enough food, a shock survey has revealed.

    Others ....handed round smaller portion sizes to make their meagre offerings suffice.

    There must have been a cut back on "All you can eat" offers at Diners. Is the Big Texan only a 50oz steak now? :whistling:

    Yup - Portugal next, because they have extremely serious structural problems, followed swiftly by Spain, and then, Italy. If Italy and Spain go to the ECB, France won't be long behind, and then the great EUR experiment is truly dead in the water.

    But make no bones about it - no-one is being friendly to the Irish; the bail out is an attempt to stop contagion.

    I think it's too late to stop the contagion. This roller coaster is going to run and run and I can only see one outcome. The failure and ultimate breakup of the €urozone.

    Edited by kar999
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