Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[CardiffStorm]

Im in work atm on my lunchbreak and its all gone slushy here in Cardiff City Centre but this morning I measured just over 10cm on the driveway which is about 4 inches off the top of my head. There was slight drifting with about 20cm piled up against the fence.

I just had a quick look at the GFS precip chart and I dont think there will be much more snow for us today, there may be the odd flurry but nothing to get excited about. It actually started raining here this morning at about 8am then turned back to snow for a little bit.

[Totoro]

Raining south of Carmarthen, temp is +1.3c (coincidentally, this is the same temp at which it started snowing yesterday - we now have higher uppers and dewpoints creeping in though hence the rain).

[Marcus_surfer]

a few showers likely here soon, might fall as rain and wreck my 6 inches of snow

[Bobby]

Massive golf ball flakes here.

[andymusic]

still think we ain't out of the cold yet - gfs downgrading the mild temps every run - so be interesting to see how mild it really gets before we go back into the freezer proper early next week!

[CardiffStorm]

wow, just had a look at the GFS until Saturday and there is a heck of a lot of rain heading this way. If only it were snow!!

[andymusic]

wow, just had a look at the GFS until Saturday and there is a heck of a lot of rain heading this way. If only it were snow!!

you may get your wish - temps are dropping on the models and the mild ain't winning!

[whiskers]

wow, just had a look at the GFS until Saturday and there is a heck of a lot of rain heading this way. If only it were snow!!

so when does this rain start? not today i hope

[Totoro]

so when does this rain start? not today i hope

Friday night into Saturday.

[impster]

Raining with bits of sleet here at the office (nr Aberystwyth) now.

[Bobby]

There's no chance of snow on Saturday unforunately. A rapid thaw on Friday and the weekend before the cold may return next week. So make most of any lying snow now because it won't last long.

[pascalsbongo]

The rain band is ever so close here now,GO AWAY !!! , i know its going to disappear but please Mr Atlantic do it in the evening in the dark.

I would say 5% chance it will be snow up here.

The real end is coming now ,it really is.

What a last hurrah last night and yesterday were though.

I just had to try and walk through those drifts in the blizzard conditions last night, i had images of the retreating German soldiers , frozen out in the battle for Stalingrad ,and struggling to hang on to life as they battled the elements , as i trudged wearily through the drifts, and back down to my humble abode.

[Marcus_surfer]

yeah rain and sleet here oh dear

[soupsurfer7]

Big flakes on and off here.. though its quite wet and only accumulating on fields

[impster]

Big flakes on and off here.. though its quite wet and only accumulating on fields

Nothing of the like here. Just damp and wet...

[pascalsbongo]

For the first time this decade............................................

RAIN !!!!!!!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NO NO NO NOOOOOOOOOOOOO NO NO NNNNNNN NO NO LOL.

THE END.

[andymusic]

There's no chance of snow on Saturday unforunately. A rapid thaw on Friday and the weekend before the cold may return next week. So make most of any lying snow now because it won't last long.

just keep an eye on the gfs temps - saturday's temps have progged to half as much as they were 8c - 4c - just keep an eye on them - the cold air ain't far away

[Bobby]

Still some snow here but it's becoming increasingly wet...

[DeepSnow]

I am NOT happy, stupid light rain its going to runi everything, all the snow is gunna melt temp 0.6C

Edited January 13, 2010 by Deepsnow

[whiskers]

no i hope it doesnt rain here yet, it is snowing lightly but i dont know how long that will last,i dont want to spoil the snow please last a bit longer i live in blackwood gwent is it going to rain here today

[pyrotech]

Well a fantastic spell of weather and real 80s style sustained cold spell now starts to diminish at least for a few days.

We are heading slowly back to average temperatures so initially it will become less cold rather than mild, with a possible milder period over the weekend.

The models and asembles are then quite complicated. All seem to hint at another fairly cold period from middle of next. The assembles are similar till the 23rd with 850s initially rising to +5 and then dropping to -5 to -10. At the 23rd the operational goes on an outlier with the other runs going for huge variances, the operational goes for a week of -10 850s.

All the models show firstly how stubborn the high pressure towards Scandinavia / siberia will be and so the blocking pattern likely to continue. It has the potential to send cold easterlies aa far as the UK and that is what the operational is going with, but as the other assmbles show, it can easily give less cold if position and orientation is not optimum for us.

The models are not really showing a sustained mild spell, it looks more like short mild spells with then cold or very cold continuing.

The next 5 weeks are historically the deepest part of winter, howvever to sustain cold we look firstly at the Stratosphere and secondly to our north east for blocking short term or possibly an omega block over the USA for longer term.

So initially we watch the scandi high and see if it deflects the Atlantic attempts early next week. Then if the pressure builds opportunity for easterlies and cold air with posible under cutting lows.

Remains very interesting.

Localised flooding may become an issue in some places over next few days if rainfall becomes heavy and ground does not have time to thaw.

Take care out there, enjoy the snow and possibly another reload not to far off.

Edited January 13, 2010 by pyrotech

[willitbsunny]

raining here - light but will be enough to ruin the snow

[DeepSnow]

raining here - light but will be enough to ruin the snow

i really hope not! Hope it dont last long, then freezes over night so i dont have skl tomoz even tho still gotta go in for exam.

[A_T]

Steady snow here - probably the last of the current batch I imagine.

[keithlucky]

Quiet a bit of precipation moving up towards cornwall at the moment rain coming ?