Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

[snowy owl]

Thanks again CMD and LS.

Maybe a peek or two at a lampost then tmrw evening.

certainly chilly in that wind tonight.

V interested to see what happens later on into weekend and beyond too, will keep watching.

Look forward to your summaries. thnx.

night.

[Mondy]

Managed to save my last piece of blackened snow today - put the poor lump in the freezer for safe-keeping

[Cheggers]

Managed to save my last piece of blackened snow today - put the poor lump in the freezer for safe-keeping

I still have a nice strip on the back garden from when all fell off the roof and packed down what was already there, so hoping to cling on to Wed night.

[Guest]

I still have a nice strip on the back garden from when all fell off the roof and packed down what was already there, so hoping to cling on to Wed night.

We still have the odd strip of dirty ice here and there. Even some wee lumps of snow in the very sheltered fields on the outskirts of the village. Not much, but not a total thaw. A 99.5% thaw.....

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVO89.png

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I wouldn't stake my house on anything the IPCC say http://news.bbc.co.u...ech/8468358.stm

Where's my snaw?

Aye, that was a bit of a gaff. "The government would like to announce that a comet will destroy the world in 2011." Edit "The government would like to correct the earlier report and state that the world will be destroyed in 20011....."

One of those a bit. Funny how it was not spotted earlier; maybe those proofing thought it sounded right (or suitably dramatic?).

I always find amusing the way it is so precise - 2350 - at least in the media. Like we can say for sure that exactly that year some reporter will be able to stand next to the little bit of ice left somewhere half way up a mountain and say - yep, that's it, all gone (cue heavy snow). You don't need a PhD to understand "estimates suggest sometime in the mid 2300's", whether you agree with it or not.

Anyway, lets worry about predicting tomorrows weather, which we should be able to do in detail given we're good to T+2969640.

Not getting upbeat about prospects for the next day or two, but you never know. Keeping fingers crossed for into the weekend/next week, which is throwing up some interesting possibilities. Maybe its the eternal optimist in me, but I can't help feeling we'll get another wee present before feb is out.

http://cache.netweat.../fax/PPVO89.png

Is that a Bartlett High developing over Europe?

Oh, sorry, meant to post that on the model thread....

[lorenzo]

This screen cap to me sums up the entire madness this week. Models flipping between runs, ensembles failing to get a grip, telconnections fuzzy.

I think that they simply cannot compute the outcome of a monster battle and so many permutations on the result.

This is at Thursday 2100 , I would say FI to anything after this time at present..

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, that was a bit of a gaff. "The government would like to announce that a comet will destroy the world in 2011." Edit "The government would like to correct the earlier report and state that the world will be destroyed in 20011....."

One of those a bit. Funny how it was not spotted earlier; maybe those proofing thought it sounded right (or suitably dramatic?).

I always find amusing the way it is so precise - 2350 - at least in the media. Like we can say for sure that exactly that year some reporter will be able to stand next to the little bit of ice left somewhere half way up a mountain and say - yep, that's it, all gone (cue heavy snow). You don't need a PhD to understand "estimates suggest sometime in the mid 2300's", whether you agree with it or not.

Anyway, lets worry about predicting tomorrows weather, which we should be able to do in detail given we're good to T+2969640.

Not getting upbeat about prospects for the next day or two, but you never know. Keeping fingers crossed for into the weekend/next week, which is throwing up some interesting possibilities. Maybe its the eternal optimist in me, but I can't help feeling we'll get another wee present before feb is out.

Is that a Bartlett High developing over Europe?

Oh, sorry, meant to post that on the model thread....

Hah, don't get them started on that again! Of course a Bartlett is not really just a one-off high over central europe (those are called euro highs!) but one which stays for a long time and means that anything other than mild atlantic dross (more mild than normal atlantic lows due to the constant southerly element) for a few weeks. No sign of that anyway! Having read through the 06/07 winter thread, I realise just how lucky we've been - they were seriously scraping around for air frosts in early February!! Even then though they managed a one-off four inch event towards mid-February, so realistically I would say that in the next six weeks we are bound to see at least one more decent fall of snow. BFTP's prediction of 'peak jet energy' making the jet track a bit further north towards the end of the month is looking quite a good call http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100119/18/144/hgt300.png . Maybe if the high doesn't sink too fast we could end up picking up another height rise to our north (Nick Sussex' idea) by which time the jet will, hopefully, be tracking further south again. Even if there is no block to our north, if the jet is tracking south, we'll still be on the cold side of it. That has really been the problem in the last few winters (last year excepted) - northerly tracking jet just means any block is unlikely to stay.

And this evening's output looks as topsy turvy as ever!

LS

This screen cap to me sums up the entire madness this week. Models flipping between runs, ensembles failing to get a grip, telconnections fuzzy.

I think that they simply cannot compute the outcome of a monster battle and so many permutations on the result.

This is at Thursday 2100 , I would say FI to anything after this time at present..

That is some chart! Look closely and you'll see Birmingham appears to be the centre of the battle between low and high pressure. What makes modelling worse is the lack of data from the centre of the high, just northeast of St Petersburg, which has very little coverage at all. Will make for more interesting model viewing!

LS

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Looks like an upgrade from the meto:

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 2 Feb 2010:

Rather cloudy for many parts, with showers or longer spells of sleet or snow likely in the east and over high ground at first, with outbreaks of light rain further west. From Wednesday (27th) wintry showers are expected to ease in the east, with rain, sleet or snow developing across western and northwestern parts. Temperatures are expected to be below normal, and perhaps very cold in the east, with overnight frosts likely and an associated risk of ice in places. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the end of the period, but a continuation of unsettled weather is likely with spells of rain, sleet and snow, and a risk of strong to gale force winds mainly across western parts. Temperatures probably remaining below normal.

[Methuselah]

Time for a new thread, folks...