3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

[ickledoozer]

As the front is approaching it is bringing in SE winds, which is dragging in drier, colder air - temp has only peaked at 1oC today and with a dew point of -1oC anything that comes in should turn readily to snow.

As you have said it is a HUGE system, very very heavy ppn in there - places in SW and Midlands will get buried - hopefully it won't lose too much intensity as it moves in, but as it comes in against the cold air, then I'm afraid it will - especially this far East. Time will tell, but all exciting stuff !

It is also very slow moving, temp here is now down to about 1.6c from 2.4c at 11am, so it is dropping away, I think I got concerned because after the last week or so 2c seems positively balmy to me!!

Edited January 12, 2010 by ickledoozer

[i luv snow]

I know, its 1oC here - but compared to last week it feels alot milder! Crazy talk! It's going to be a lot of snow for some, but do not have high hopes for you.

The only thing that surprises me is that the warnings show only about 1 to 3cm for alot of the country- with the radar return I have seen, a larger area will have alot heavier snow than that imo -the trick is the temps though, as they fall away this evening I would be quietly confident for most areas away from the far SW and coasts. Let's see whats left of the ppn by the time it gets here, eh!

[Country Boy]

Looking at web cams towards the south west, and all are showing RAIN...cant get the web cam for swindon, but bristol is showing rain...but will be dark soon so that will end that idear..

[ickledoozer]

I know, its 1oC here - but compared to last week it feels alot milder! Crazy talk! It's going to be a lot of snow for some, but do not have high hopes for you.

The only thing that surprises me is that the warnings show only about 1 to 3cm for alot of the country- with the radar return I have seen, a larger area will have alot heavier snow than that imo -the trick is the temps though, as they fall away this evening I would be quietly confident for most areas away from the far SW and coasts. Let's see whats left of the ppn by the time it gets here, eh!

Can I just ask why you do not have high hopes for our area, is it because it is likely to break up once it hits cooler air? If it is unlikey for my area which is central then its definitely going to be rubbish for Ipswich, poor you! :unsure:

Edited January 12, 2010 by ickledoozer

[saint]

Hmmmmm... I have no idea what will happen, many forecasts are giving us snow tonight/tomrrow! I suppose being located in the West and South could help.

Edited January 12, 2010 by saint

[PB22]

I really wouldn't hold my breath for anything exciting tomorrow. Some snow may fall inland, but no great quantities, and rain or sleet is likely in the east of the area. The front will be dying, and losing intensity which won't help matters.

[ickledoozer]

Hmmmmm... I have no idea what will happen, many forecasts are giving us snow tonight/tomrrow! I suppose being located in the West and South could help.

Yeah, I kind of got the whole "it helps to be in the south and west" thing as that is where it is coming from, but I was thinking more from the angle that it is obviously heading north and although it will break down there is a possibility that something residual may pass over us in the Midlands!

[Timmytour]

Hmmmmm... I have no idea what will happen, many forecasts are giving us snow tonight/tomrrow! I suppose being located in the West and South could help.

Saint, I've more hope about tonight/tomorrow than I ever had about last weekend

[saint]

Saint, I've more hope about tonight/tomorrow than I ever had about last weekend

More! Must be a good sign! :lol:

[simon65]

Saint, I've more hope about tonight/tomorrow than I ever had about last weekend

get ready for the rattles ,your gonna be one disapointed person ,if not all the better

Current data for Linslade

12 January 2010 16:11:59

Temperature (°C):

Current 0.8

Trend (per hour) -0.2

Average today 0.7

Wind chill -1.2

Humidex -1.8

Dew Point -1.9

Rel Humidity 82%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 11.4 SE

Average Speed 3.8 SE

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.0

Total yesterday 2.1

Total this month 7.8

Total this year 7.8

Pressure (mb):

Current 1004.1

Trend (per hour) -0.4

[cooling climate]

I am more confident now than I was before of a decent snow event in our neck of the woods

maybe even significant snow event.

The precipitation band is definitely more intense than predicted and just how much it weakens

coming northeast is still open to question.

[i luv snow]

Can I just ask why you do not have high hopes for our area, is it because it is likely to break up once it hits cooler air? If it is unlikey for my area which is central then its definitely going to be rubbish for Ipswich, poor you!

The ppn will lose intensity as it bumps firther into this cold air... so it looks unlikely that any of this region will see anything notable. i'm more than chuffed with this cold spell though, so I'm not too fussed.

I do think more central areas will see more than 1 to 3cm, the ppn is very heavy indeed and temps seem to be dropping now ahead of the front, time will tell. Like you said, pretty much no hope for Ipswich, way too far east - maybe a slight covering tomorrow, but probably won't be round too long.

[ickledoozer]

The ppn will lose intensity as it bumps firther into this cold air... so it looks unlikely that any of this region will see anything notable. i'm more than chuffed with this cold spell though, so I'm not too fussed.

I do think more central areas will see more than 1 to 3cm, the ppn is very heavy indeed and temps seem to be dropping now ahead of the front, time will tell. Like you said, pretty much no hope for Ipswich, way too far east - maybe a slight covering tomorrow, but probably won't be round too long.

I have enjoyed the cold spell too, but would be grateful for some milder sunny days now!

[i luv snow]

Maybe we will be pleasantly suprised and it can end with a 'sort-of' bang, I'm not concerned about temps - they are dropping to around freezing now, with dewpoints just below. Just need the ppn to get here... radar actually looks more promising than I thought it would!

[NorthantsSnow]

The 12z does shunt the main action a little further east- potentially making tonight's event a bit more interesting for the extreme west of the region. But it's the GFS so confidence is very low.

[Hammer]

The NAE 12z suggests snow at about 6am tomorrow for southern part of the region (perhaps), then snow still showing on the 6pm frame as well for the region. My guess is almost anywhere might get lucky and see 1-5cm's if this PPN holds together better than expected. But probably more likely 1-2cm's in most places. Whether that will be measurable before it melts again is another matter.

[Ben_Cambs]

PPN tomorrow will fall as sleet or snow, but its how much is what some people will want to know, nothing major, I would agree with Hammer above

[NorthantsSnow]

OK so maybe I was a little hasty in writing tomorrow's event off.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/12/basis12/ukuk/rsum/10011318_1212.gif

5cm would do me nicely!

[saint]

PPN tomorrow will fall as sleet or snow, but its how much is what some people will want to know, nothing major, I would agree with Hammer above

I expect plenty then because last time you forecasted 10-15cm's....... That didn't go well so..... Using reverse thought it's gona snow lots!

[Ben_Cambs]

I expect plenty then because last time you forecasted 10-15cm's....... That didn't go well so..... Using reverse thought it's gona snow lots! :lol: :lol:

I predict 4cm for you this time!

[saint]

I predict 4cm for you this time! :lol:

So thats what.... 15cm??? :lol:

[Ben_Cambs]

So thats what.... 15cm??? :lol:

Yes it is! Im so wrong sometimes.... but I think 1-5cm is will be nice tomorrow!

[saint]

Yes it is! Im so wrong sometimes.... but I think 1-5cm is will be nice tomorrow!

At least you try.

Yep it would be nice.

[Ben_Cambs]

At least you try.

Yep it would be nice.

I think the snow will be short lived because by Friday the Atlantic may have some influence on our weather! Looks like it may be Average for most of next week

[Hammer]

Intresting that MetO, have decided to take the other approach this time of issuing no advisories for even 1-5cm's about this in advance, following the previous days when they seemed to enjoy painting yellow on the UK map even for statements like a few cm's possible here there and everywhere. For example surprised there is no advisory at least for southern parts of Northants etc.