3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

[Guest]

Looking at the fax charts for the next 5 days, I see the Scandi high will intensify at the end of the period - If it started doing this a little earlier it could push that low out of the way and apart from the SW this system would make little progress into the UK.

As far as I can see nothing is certain yet. As for the forecasters they have to make a decision and they will be damned if they do and damned if they don't, whatever they say. It's not one I would like to call.

[Snowangel-MK]

Helloooooooooooooo

Where is everyone

I hope a night off from the radar/lampost watching hasn't resulted in you all oversleeping

What are the general thoughts on tonight/tomorrow, will the snow from the SW get as far as here ?

Anyhow it looks like we could have a 'less cold' weekend ahead.

Edited January 12, 2010 by MKsnowangel

[meltz!]

Helloooooooooooooo

Where is everyone

I hope a night off from the radar/lampost watching hasn't resulted in you all oversleeping

What are the general thoughts on tonight/tomorrow, will the snow from the SW get as far as here ?

Anyhow it looks like we could have a 'less cold' weekend ahead.

hellooooooooooo snowangel

i'm here! heart fm weather today said that dry and sunny today and clear spells over night with a low of -1.

agree about the weekend though

[cooling climate]

My guess for snow amounts tomorrow going on latest model output would

be for 5 to 10cm for the herts area.

This is likely to change as further updates become available.

[meltz!]

My guess for snow amounts tomorrow going on latest model output would

be for 5 to 10cm for the herts area.

This is likely to change as further updates become available.

Really? how far west in herts do you think?

meltz

[Hammer]

My guess for snow amounts tomorrow going on latest model output would

be for 5 to 10cm for the herts area.

This is likely to change as further updates become available.

Whilst I would be pleased if this were true, to be honest at best 1-2cm and not even in our part of this region (Sussex, Surrey, Kent look favoured) I would think and even then that would be top end and with everything working in favour, which currently after last model run from GFS at least it is not.

For us in Herts we may well see some snow, but I'd doubt it would amount to much more than a dusting.

What have you seen to indicate 5cm to 10cm's?

[NorthantsSnow]

Morning guys. So, nothing has really changed in the past 24 hours. The main risk for heavy snow is going to be in south Wales, parts of the West Midlands and SW England. By the time the precip reaches here (which it will...eventually) it will have lost a lot of its intensity. Perhaps up to 2cm for the western side of the region (Herts, Beds, Bucks, Northants) but elsewhere very little if anything.

[Timmytour]

I think the Low will head a little more east, a little more quickly than some are predicting, giving us a chance of seeing some of the more intense activity ahead of the front before it fizzles out. I think there's quite a good chance some of us will see up to 5cm from it. The trouble is it won't stay as well as the snow we've previously had this winter...

Edited January 12, 2010 by Timmytour

[cooling climate]

Whilst I would be pleased if this were true, to be honest at best 1-2cm and not even in our part of this region (Sussex, Surrey, Kent look favoured) I would think and even then that would be top end and with everything working in favour, which currently after last model run from GFS at least it is not.

For us in Herts we may well see some snow, but I'd doubt it would amount to much more than a dusting.

What have you seen to indicate 5cm to 10cm's?

latest model guidance does not support my ideas I must admit but if a channel low does form then I believe

this will increase precipitation more than is being currently shown.

You may well be right and I will have to lower my expectations, none the less it will be interesting following it

through the evening which will give us the most accurate way of forcasting what is likely to happen.

Edited January 12, 2010 by cooling climate

[Steve C]

I sort of feel brave

Tomorrow will be like today, cold and grey. Now based on several charts I think places in this region may get a covering Tuesday night into Wednesday, the further west you are the better. Any snow lying will be short lived by Friday, as temporary milder southerlies come in. Temps by the weekend reaching 6C. Indications are after this that colder weather could return, with High pressure returning, but it is a long way off to forecast that.

Even though this forecast was done yesterday, it concurs with my thoughts.

I'd always felt the current less cold weather would have broken the freezing spell by now( however last Saturday eve, was a bit earlier than I thought ) I think it may become still milder, or at least a little less cold later this week. There might be some snow in the short term, before the less cold weather breaks through, although I personally think it won't be a big deal in this area.

I then think the cold weather will re-establish next week - whether it's cold and dry, or a snowfall situation remains to be seen. The synoptic charts just don't look ready for a proper Atlantic breakthrough yet.

Still, who knows?

[simon65]

im sure that low from the west country is going to be followed by more mild air so what snow does settle will not be there for long ,i am right in thinking that it is an Occluded front ?

Edited January 12, 2010 by simon65

[Snowangel-MK]

hellooooooooooo snowangel

i'm here! heart fm weather today said that dry and sunny today and clear spells over night with a low of -1.

agree about the weekend though

I can't see it turning out sunny today, it's been overcast here all morning.

And we don't want clear spells over night....... we want more snow,

so hopefully they will have got that bit wrong as well !

Out of interest do you know where they get their weather info from ? (Met Office ?????? )

Edited January 12, 2010 by MKsnowangel

[Steve C]

im sure that low from the west country is going to be followed by more mild air so what snow does settle will not be there for long ,i am right in thinking that it is an Occluded front ?

Yes.

[Let_it_snow]

Well we have had some light rain, sleet and snow this morning 10 miles south of Norwich, obviously wont amount to anything but just shows that is marginal if we get anything later tonight tomorrow from the SW.

The thaw continues but I have to say that is the slowest thaw I can remember so just shows wha a cold snap this is. Hoping for some good news for the rest of winter. Still very early days and absolutly anything can happen in Jan, Feb & March.....exciting times still. I hope we can get the dumping we deserve at some point.

[Iceni]

Nice chart for tomorrow morning — the temperature's actually dropped by half a degree hereabouts to 0.3 ° C.

http://expert.weathe...011312_1206.gif

As I said yesterday, I'd love the cold to go out with a bang.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Iceni

[Snowly does it]

wet snow shower here, temp at 2.3. Still have full cover generally but little patches appearing where roofs and trees are dripping and such like

[Snowangel-MK]

Well we have had some light rain, sleet and snow this morning 10 miles south of Norwich, obviously wont amount to anything but just shows that is marginal if we get anything later tonight tomorrow from the SW.

The thaw continues but I have to say that is the slowest thaw I can remember so just shows wha a cold snap this is. Hoping for some good news for the rest of winter. Still very early days and absolutly anything can happen in Jan, Feb & March.....exciting times still. I hope we can get the dumping we deserve at some point.

Yes, it is a very slow thaw indeed - when I was a child I remember the local farmers saying if the 'snow lay for more than a day it was waiting for more not for a thaw' or something like that (it was a long time ago) so perhaps there is something in the saying !

[Iceni]

Yes, it is a very slow thaw indeed - when I was a child I remember the local farmers saying if the 'snow lay for more than a day it was waiting for more not for a thaw' or something like that (it was a long time ago) so perhaps there is something in the saying !

I measure a thaw by whether my labrador can walk across the pond without getting wet… he still can

[ickledoozer]

I measure a thaw by whether my labrador can walk across the pond without getting wet… he still can

lol, walking dogs by ponds and lakes terrifies me now! I was out for a walk round a local lake on Sunday night and it was frozen solid, so my friend decided to see how frzoen by putting a foot on it (whilst holding on) and the fliippin dog (not a terribly small dog) just walked onto the lake!!!

Also, later on we saw a cat or fox running around on the lake (right in the midle) trying to catch a duck for dinner!

It is currently 2.4c here and my weather station tells me it is raining, although it isn't!

That weather system coming in from the SW is blooming huge, I wonder if it will be snow or rain for us, could the continued cloud cover cause temps to stay above 2c and bring us rain, it just seems like the conditions have left us now?

Edited January 12, 2010 by ickledoozer

[meltz!]

Yes, it is a very slow thaw indeed - when I was a child I remember the local farmers saying if the 'snow lay for more than a day it was waiting for more not for a thaw' or something like that (it was a long time ago) so perhaps there is something in the saying !

our local canal is still frozen and just did a driving lesson in Tring, which kind of on the beds herts and bucks borderish and there has't been much of a thaw there at all! temp ion car is just above freezing 0.5.

As for where Heart fm get their forecasts from your prob right about them getting it from met office!! so much for sunny spells here today!!

as far as im aware we're not due any snow tonight, possibly a cm or two tomorrow?

meltz!

lol, walking dogs by ponds and lakes terrifies me now! I was out for a walk round a local lake on Sunday night and it was frozen solid, so my friend decided to see how frzoen by putting a foot on it (whilst holding on) and the fliippin dog (not a terribly small dog) just walked onto the lake!!!

Also, later on we saw a cat or fox running around on the lake (right in the midle) trying to catch a duck for dinner!

It is currently 2.4c here and my weather station tells me it is raining, although it isn't!

That weather system coming in from the SW is blooming huge, I wonder if it will be snow or rain for us, could the continued cloud cover cause temps to stay above 2c and bring us rain, it just seems like the conditions have left us now?

I'm with you on that, i hate seeing dogs walking on the ice!! Whats worse is the idiots that let their dogs walk on the ice only to risk life and limb jumping in to save them!!

having done many a winter deployment in Norway with the Royal Marines we had to do ice breaking drills and the shock that hits you is so severe it can stop you breathing!!!!!!! BRRRRRRR never do that again!!!!

Edited January 12, 2010 by meltz!

[simon65]

i dont think Doris Day would approve of dogs on frozen lakes or any kind of water ,(simon goes off into a dream thinking of Doris)

Current data for Linslade

12 January 2010 14:23:00

Temperature (°C):

Current 1.3

Trend (per hour) -0.1

Average today 0.7

Wind chill -1.4

Humidex -1.2

Dew Point -1.4

Rel Humidity 82%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 13.0 SE

Average Speed 5.4 SE

Rainfall (mm):

Current rate 0.0

Last hour 0.0

Total today 0.0

Total yesterday 2.1

Total this month 7.8

Total this year 7.8

Pressure (mb):

Current 1004.5

Trend (per hour) -1.3

[Country Boy]

As I forcast last week , (and many on here said it would not happen ) The upper air is now feeding in from the south east slowly cutting out the artic air, and by the early part of next week it will be a south westerly as Mr. Atlantic gets his act together. This will increase the thaw, witch is rapidly happening here at the moment. Think we have to accept this cold snap is coming to an end. As I have said before we need the high out east to go north again. And in the further outlook this looks likly to happen.

[i luv snow]

That weather system coming in from the SW is blooming huge, I wonder if it will be snow or rain for us, could the continued cloud cover cause temps to stay above 2c and bring us rain, it just seems like the conditions have left us now?

As the front is approaching it is bringing in SE winds, which is dragging in drier, colder air - temp has only peaked at 1oC today and with a dew point of -1oC anything that comes in should turn readily to snow.

As you have said it is a HUGE system, very very heavy ppn in there - places in SW and Midlands will get buried - hopefully it won't lose too much intensity as it moves in, but as it comes in against the cold air, then I'm afraid it will - especially this far East. Time will tell, but all exciting stuff !

[Tringaling]

our local canal is still frozen and just did a driving lesson in Tring, which kind of on the beds herts and bucks borderish and there has't been much of a thaw there at all! temp ion car is just above freezing 0.5.

meltz!

Hi Meltz,

Very slow thaw around here, just a steady drip drip drip. Hope temps do drop tonight because otherwise ppn tomoz more likely to be sleet and rain rather than snow. My little 'forecast' yesterday already looking bad because it appears Atlantic may well win out and we could have a slightly warmer weekend. Very very uncertain after that.

I think we will all have to play the waiting game...........again.

tara4now

Tringaling

[simon65]

just remember people not to get your hopes up to hight and start to bounce off the walls when it all goes wrong ,as i said earlier ,yes there is a cold front off the west country but its going to drag in more mild air ,i cant see the snow lasting very long