3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

[Ben_Cambs]

You need the St Ives shield, works a treat and guaranteed to keep all snow away no matter what any forecast or model predicts

Did you get snow on the 17/18th December?

[Timmytour]

Is the definition of "snow shield" getting confused here? I always assumed it to mean that snow was prevented from getting into the area...thus, as Saint says, it hasn't really been in evidence this winter!

edit....around St Albans I mean!

Edited January 11, 2010 by Timmytour

[Ben_Cambs]

This chart

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) does affect our weather. When -NAO is in force, it is when our colder weather is here. These forecasts are quite accurate. You can see the NAO index returning to around 0 around the 19th, but as you can see, it returns into a -NAO.

IMO, this is when we are likely to experience our next batch of colder weather, probably at the moment around the 23rd, looking like a cold Easterly flow by then.

The at the moment possible return of the Easterly coincides with the NAO returning back to negative figures

In the short term, a brief milder spell over the weekend looks likely, before this sort of weather, cold and grey returns, and then we will see if this Easterly does return....

Edited January 11, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Mr_Pessimistic]

hi, im guessing im hoping too much to see any snow here in south east norfolk on wed? as only had 2" so far, hopes been dashed so many times in the last couple of years..

[Ben_Cambs]

hi, im guessing im hoping too much to see any snow here in south east norfolk on wed? as only had 2" so far, hopes been dashed so many times in the last couple of years..

Well if GFS 12z did prove to be correct the whole region would see a few hours of decent snowfall

[slater]

Well if GFS 12z did prove to be correct the whole region would see a few hours of decent snowfall

hmmm very much doubt it,be very shocked if norfolk sees anymore snow this month,was in gt yarmouth today and was a lovely 3.5c..phew!!!on local radio this evening weather quest say that temps are due to go back to norm from weekend with next week seeing 6/7c

[Mr_Pessimistic]

also, im being lazy here as I have not looked at the stratosphere thread, but is there any sighns of a warming event in the near future? sorry, thanks..

[Ben_Cambs]

also, im being lazy here as I have not looked at the stratosphere thread, but is there any sighns of a warming event in the near future? sorry, thanks..

Well it doesnt look the greatest, the PV looks like its going to set up over Iceland, still the stratosphere is cooler than average, but hopefully MMW will counter the PV

[nwales]

Well the snow last night caused chaos on the roads here this morning. We didn't have much, maybe a couple of cms but as the town is in a steep sided valley most roads out of town were a nightmare. It usually takes me about 15 or 20 mins to get to work but this morning it took me nearly 3 hours

[Archie_Lewis]

I know these guys credibility is pretty poor

but ITV London Tonight regional weather going for up to 2cm Wednesday morning across London and South east

[Tom D]

There's a chance of some snow on Wednesday, but remember there's still uncertainty over how far east the band will come. It isn't going to 'sweep the country' as with past returns of the Atlantic. It may stall over SW England, Wales or a bit further east over central southern England, the Midlands etc before dying.

I'd also say it's marginal.

Edited January 11, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[Archie_Lewis]

Latest BBC London weather:

now going with 2-5cm across London and Homecounties! Tuesday night late into Weds morning!

Good enough for me considering I thought nothing would reach here

[saint]

Latest BBC London weather:

now going with 2-5cm across London and Homecounties! Tuesday night late into Weds morning!

Good enough for me considering I thought nothing would reach here

Interesting indeed!

[Jason T]

Evening all, just been reading a locked thread for 3 counties, they saying snow tonight, and thought it was mad for met o to downgrade all warnings for us, I actually agree. Even people at work claim that a radio station stated that the big thaw was on temps rising and cold and snow spell finished, MY a.se. Told them if anything its going to get alot worse by the end of the week. They dont believe me though..FOOLS.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, interesting times ahead, a potential snow event for Wednesday has suddenly appeared with a frontal system moving slowly north, embedded in continental air, and preceding the warm-up to more average conditions for next weekend.

Uncertainty beyond the weekend with about 30% chance of a renewed cold easterly coming in.

[Archie_Lewis]

New update from meto! Interesting.... Could we be looking at further upgrades tomorrow?

THIS IS AN ADVANCED WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR WALES AND SW ENGLAND IN PARTICULAR FROM TUESDAY PM AND DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING

During Tuesday afternoon, an Atlantic frontal system will move slowly northeast bringing heavy snow inland across SW England and southern half of Wales then spreading further NE across the rest of Wales, N. Ireland and across the parts of Midlands and central southern England overnight into Wednesday morning before slowly dying out in the afternoon/evening, up to 5-15cm of fresh snowfall can be expected widely, over higher ground of SW England and Wales further fresh snowfall accumulations of 15-25cm are possible. The northern and eastern extent of the heaviest snow during Wednesday is still a little uncertain, but at the moment areas south and west of a line roughly from Liverpool to Eastbourne are likely to see the heaviest of snowfall. Outside of this area maybe a couple of cm of fresh snow can be expected during Wednesday as the front continues slowly northeast across central and eastern areas. Away from these areas, further snowfall is possible across the Highlands of Scotland and over the mountains of N England and N. Ireland bringing further accumulations.

[Jason T]

Yes, interesting times ahead, a potential snow event for Wednesday has suddenly appeared with a frontal system moving slowly north, embedded in continental air, and preceding the warm-up to more average conditions for next weekend.

Uncertainty beyond the weekend with about 30% chance of a renewed cold easterly coming in.

I suppose its very hard at the moment to give out dead certs for the weather ahead.let alone now.

[Jason T]

My its quite tonight.???

[saint]

My its quite tonight.???

Either eveyone can't be bothered anymore OR they are waiting with baited breath to see what develops! :lol:

[Jason T]

Either eveyone can't be bothered anymore OR they are waiting with baited breath to see what develops!

Well all is not lost yet, alot could still happen.

[slater]

Either eveyone can't be bothered anymore OR they are waiting with baited breath to see what develops!

least you guys possibly got something to look forward too..iv just given up the ghost here in Norwich 3half weeks of cold weather and poxy 2" of snow..what ever direction the snow comes in we get sweet fa...

[cooling climate]

Apart from the front moving across us the GFS ans NAE models are showing a channel low forming

which will complicate things further but if this does occur and we get a favorable track as shown on

the 12z GFS run then this could greatly enhance any snowfall.

[chilly milly]

least you guys possibly got something to look forward too..iv just given up the ghost here in Norwich 3half weeks of cold weather and poxy 2" of snow..what ever direction the snow comes in we get sweet fa...

Same here really. 1" of compacted snow in places. Elsewhere including my back garden the snow has gone.

Don't hold out much hope for Tues/Weds as before now we have either been to far North/East/West and I doubt that will change now.

[Jason T]

least you guys possibly got something to look forward too..iv just given up the ghost here in Norwich 3half weeks of cold weather and poxy 2" of snow..what ever direction the snow comes in we get sweet fa...

Well i agree with giving up the ghost, but this has all ended rather unexpected, which gives me a feeling that something is going to happen from the big bad east, There is alot of mixed opinion through media etc. We still have a good 4 weeks minimum of hard winter. LOTS OF SNOW ???

[slater]

Same here really. 1" of compacted snow in places. Elsewhere including my back garden the snow has gone.

Don't hold out much hope for Tues/Weds as before now we have either been to far North/East/West and I doubt that will change now.

excatly....,everthing goes around us,i think we have our own little climate so really apart from the cold temps its being boring 3weeks really in this neck of the woods