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Paul Sherman

3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 6

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I'm getting more optimistic that the front is going to stall across London and to the north of it, we could get some decent snowfall accompanied by chilly winds

I agree, best snowfall is always the downplayed prediction...haha

take the prediction for Sundays Snow ramp????????? Oh dear...

Please do not get your hopes up! Looks extremely marginal for your location. Here's the breakdown for Herts based on the GFS data for the times in which moderate precipitation is forecast.

Wed 1500

Air temp -0.1°C

Dewpoint -0.6°C

Upper temp -1 °c

850-1000 hPa 1294 m

Wed 1800

Air temp +0.3°C

Dewpoint 0°C

Upper temp -1 °c

850-1000 hPa 1300 m

Wed 2100

Air temp +0.8°C

Dewpoint +0.8°C

Upper temp 0 °c

850-1000 hPa 1307 m

Wrong side of marginal I'm afraid. Perhaps a bit of wet snow initially, but almost certainly turning to rain as the dewpoints rise.

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Please do not get your hopes up! Looks extremely marginal for your location. Here's the breakdown for Herts based on the GFS data for the times in which moderate precipitation is forecast.

Wed 1500

Air temp -0.1°C

Dewpoint -0.6°C

Upper temp -1 °c

850-1000 hPa 1294 m

Wed 1800

Air temp +0.3°C

Dewpoint 0°C

Upper temp -1 °c

850-1000 hPa 1300 m

Wed 2100

Air temp +0.8°C

Dewpoint +0.8°C

Upper temp 0 °c

850-1000 hPa 1307 m

Wrong side of marginal I'm afraid. Perhaps a bit of wet snow initially, but almost certainly turning to rain as the dewpoints rise.

Is that from a similar source that was predicting widespread snow for us saturday and sunday?

All I'm saying is that I'm a lot more optimistic about the next two days than I was before the weekend. And that involves a slice of scepticism regarding what the models CURRENTLY show.. :lol:

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Is that from a similar source that was predicting widespread snow for us saturday and sunday?

All I'm saying is that I'm a lot more optimistic about the next two days than I was before the weekend. And that involves a slice of scepticism regarding what the models CURRENTLY show.. :acute:

No, actually, the GFS was always rather subdued as far as Sat/Sun were concerned. The models might change but I doubt it, the cold pool is running out fast now. :whistling:

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Well the BBC better back away then! As there forecast clearly says snow for our region Wednesday! No mention of rain

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Good afternoon everyone, it's just started to try and snizzle again.

We had about 1cm of fresh snow last night which filled in the holes and has lasted well considering it was 'wet' in comparason with the 'powder' we had before.

It has been a very overcast and grey day here all day and according to my car only just got above freezing. However, there has been a slow and steady thaw, my once very impressive icicles have either dropped off or are looking like pathetic drips to what they once were.

I assume it will fall below freezing again tonight which will be interesting when the slush on the non salted roads freezes, I prefer my little used lane that still has lovely white compacted snow to the nasty black stuff that we will probably have hanging round for a while yet, but I suppose a slow thaw is better for those at risk of flooding.

There seems to be a difference of opinion as to what, if anything we will get here on Wednesday, so looks like it will be wait and see !

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Well the BBC better back away then! As there forecast clearly says snow for our region Wednesday! No mention of rain

That could be the death knell though, on previous form :lol:

Can't remember when a 48 hours notice BBC forecast of substantial snow for our region came good....always a first though!

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Well been terrible day here, snizzle, drizzle, grey, cold and just generally horrible.... havent seen the sun, yet the cloud isnt giving anything worth being cloudy for!! lol Temps been 1-2c, generally a bleurgh kinda day xxx

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The Met Office are obviously trying to push this front through so that we end up in a milder weekend - it may not happen - it will be a battle of two air masses and the mild may not necessarily win, thereby leaving us in the cold air mass in the SE.

I am not saying that this will be the case because I do not have enough info to say one way or the other but I have seen these situations before especially in 1963. Perhaps the forecasters would do well to study the synoptic charts of that winter and perhaps '47 as well.

As it is very slight thaw here at Watford with cloudy skies.

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That could be the death knell though, on previous form :lol:

Can't remember when a 48 hours notice BBC forecast of substantial snow for our region came good....always a first though!

very true!

But they are not forecasting a substantial amount!

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GFS 12z says game on for London and parts of the South East for Early Wednesday Morning, much more of an ESE Flow and Colder Uppers around, I wonder if the 18z will continue with the same line.

Interesting times ahead!

Paul S

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GFS 12z starting to suggest snow possible for the region. Damn, that has dashed my hopes somewhat. I did think Wednesday morning presented an opportunity before this run, but now a model also picks it out the potential, it won't happen of course.

:unsure:

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GFS 12z says game on for London and parts of the South East for Early Wednesday Morning, much more of an ESE Flow and Colder Uppers around, I wonder if the 18z will continue with the same line.

Interesting times ahead!

Paul S

yes Paul!

BBC London forecast at lunchtime seem to agree!

She said it could be a tricky commute!

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yes Paul!

BBC London forecast at lunchtime seem to agree!

She said it could be a tricky commute!

Interestingly the earlier forecasts on BBC London, were from 06z models. So will be interesting to see if other 12z run's also increase the risk.

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I am very pleased that they are not forecasting heavy snow for Northants. To often hopes built up only to be dashed, much prefer an non-forecasted surprise.

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The UKMO 12z run also goes for a significant snow event for our areas along with

the 12z GFS with maybe 6 to 10 hours of snow.

This could turn into a very significant event with widespread travel disruption.

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The UKMO 12z run also goes for a significant snow event for our areas along with

the 12z GFS with maybe 6 to 10 hours of snow.

This could turn into a very significant event with widespread travel disruption.

lets hope it's still showing tomorrow. Could be very interesting

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Certainly something to watch, GFS has kept pushing it East every run for a couple of days. Maybe the block is not strong enough? We will see what 18z says later

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Out of the Town centre there has been hardly any thaw! The St. Albans City FC pitch at Clarence Park still has 10cm of snow on it and the stands also have 10cm of snow on them. (We have had our Herts cup tie postponed for the 3rd time!! :shok: It was originally meant to be plyed before Chirstmas! :shok:)

The snow this morninjg was interesting as it settled on some main roads and caused plenty of traffic this morning, had around an inch of it.

Wednesday seems interesting, we shall have to wait and see!

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Out of the Town centre there has been hardly any thaw! The St. Albans City FC pitch at Clarence Park still has 10cm of snow on it and the stands also have 10cm of snow on them. (We have had our Herts cup tie postponed for the 3rd time!! :shok: It was originally meant to be plyed before Chirstmas! :oops:)

The snow this morninjg was interesting as it settled on some main roads and caused plenty of traffic this morning, had around an inch of it.

Wednesday seems interesting, we shall have to wait and see!

Hopefully a new snow shield around St Albans will be installed by then! :shok:

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Hopefully a new snow shield around St Albans will be installed by then! :D

Hopefully not eh? :p:D The snow shield hasn't worked here!

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Hopefully not eh? :p:D The snow shield hasn't worked here!

:D But Tuesday/Wednesday is something to watch for, last weeks event was upgraded very quickly by the Met so could this one?

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:p But Tuesday/Wednesday is something to watch for, last weeks event was upgraded very quickly by the Met so could this one?

Maybe more snow for here possibly, being in the West of the region may help aswell! :D Had about an extra inch last night.

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The snow shield hasn't worked here!

You need the St Ives shield, works a treat and guaranteed to keep all snow away no matter what any forecast or model predicts

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