Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Ukwoody]

well despite meteox showing heavier for us right now, its got lighter. I'm puzzeled by why the temp is 1.6 and humidity low - much the same as last few days, why the snow is melting. lack of wind chill?

woody

[Marcus_surfer]

Just been out and it feels much warmer, also no frost on cars and our lethal icy road has melted slightly.

[willitbsunny]

Melting here too - I think the extreme cold from the East is dying out....

[J10]

whats your thoughts for today now jack? still gonna be hit later? this snow just seems to be melting which is basically what you said it would do. Tonight nay better?

woody

Difficult to tell, if we look at the lower ground estimates from the Met Office, 5-15cm inland, 2-5cm around might be closer to the mark.

If the snow got a little heavier, then the above amounts are possible, if the snow stays light though, then even several hours of this, won't really amount to much.

[Ukwoody]

so does that mean you're also now feeling this may not amount to much? what about tues now?

woody

[DeepSnow]

starting to get heavy now at times!!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Deepsnow

[Jayfromcardiff]

starting to get heavy now at times!!

nice.

[andymusic]

Plenty of snow here - moderately snowing with reasonable sized flakes - sticking to all surfaces and getting a top up on my 5 - 6 inches already laying - wind blowing it all over - for those on about a thaw - the beeb said that the warm front would do that on the east coast of england - it won't happen here!!! + this snow seems to be developing all the time so this could still give a fair few cms in the end and tuesday is still looking like a good chance for a proper blizzard again!

Edited January 10, 2010 by andymusic

[DeepSnow]

nice.

I guess, but i think its a bit too warm, as the snow isnt really sticking its just either being blown away by the wind or melting!! should have a better chance of sticking tonight i think.

[J10]

so does that mean you're also now feeling this may not amount to much? what about tues now?

woody

Most accumulations will probably happen overnight, but that is always the case.

As for Tuesday, the GFS has the warm plume pushing further north, it this is the case snow will be restricted, UKMO keeps the milder weather across SW England and further south,

So in summary GFS Snow to Rain (with snow on highest ground) and perhaps back to snow later, but generally not good for most

UKMO A mostly snow event, perhaps sleety at times around some coasts

What to look for in the models

1. Upper air temps - We want them as low as possible, in this instance below freezing should suffice.

2. We want the low to undercut the High Pressure keeping wind direction SE, preferably more Easterly than southerly.

3. Intensity of Precipitation.Tthe heavier the precipitation the better, giving the better chance of snow and indeed settling snow (as in a way today demonstrates).

[Cymro]

I guess, but i think its a bit too warm, as the snow isnt really sticking its just either being blown away by the wind or melting!! should have a better chance of sticking tonight i think.

Blown away by the wind that's what it is i can assure u its sticking but then blows away a few moments latter, drifts will start to develope.

[immortal1969]

Brynamman -light snow,+1c on my thermo.....heatwave!!!!

[andymusic]

Most accumulations will probably overnight, but that is always the case.

As for Tuesday, the GFS has the warm plume pushing further north, it this is the case now will be restricted, UKMO keeps the milder weather across SW England and further south,

So in summary GFS Snow to Rain (with snow on highest ground) and perhaps back to snow later, but generally not good for most

UKMO A mostly snow event, perhaps sleety at times around some coasts

What to look for in the models

1. Upper air temps - We want them as low as possible, in this instance below freeing should suffice.

2. We want the low to undercut the High Pressure keeping wind direction SE, preferably more Easterly than southerly.

3. Intensity of Precipitation. the heavier the precipitation the better, giving the better chance of snow and indeed settling snow (as in a way today demonstrates).

As far as todays latest GFS is concerned the cold is still being progged to win most of the battles this week up until about saturday when it'll lose for a few days and then the cold is coming back with another easterly - so the winter rolls on

Edited January 10, 2010 by andymusic

[Cymro]

its +1 here too I'm really not liking that, although the snow is settling.

[bennytes]

light snow falling, and only sticking to the already lying snow. very thin accumulation so far. the bare patches, nothing. it is melting as soon as it hits them.

[derrylynne]

its +1 here too I'm really not liking that, although the snow is settling.

Still snowing and settling here although the breakdown looks like it will be complete come Wednesday. No doubt many people will be glad for a thaw and for life to get back to normal. However, for so early in the winter this has been a memoriable cold spell - and I have no doubt there will be other periods of snow during the rest of the winter..I must admit myself it will be nice to see a bit of green rather than all white and to travel without ice and snow all over the roads. Bet the councils will be heaving a sigh of relief..

[The Weather Dragon]

Temp 1C with Moderate Snow - not really settling - quite dissapointing but exactly as forecast

[Matt00011]

Downgrades on Met Office site

[CRACKPOT]

MetO warnings - website now states these have been cancelled - ha ha - egg on face or what! Updated at 11:30 am Sunday 10th January.

So it's official - we get nothing but the red of embarassment!

JK

[Ukwoody]

met office has officially cancelled the warning for the whole of wales for today

THE EARLY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DISRUPTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY.

woody

[Icequeen]

Grains are turning more to flakes here in Swansea still light but constant. Still haven't decided if the kids sledge needs wheels on it or not , I hope the latter.

[keithlucky]

met office has officially cancelled the warning for the whole of wales for today

THE EARLY WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. DISRUPTIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW LESS LIKELY.

woody Still though heavy snow tuesday night wednesday .

[The Weather Dragon]

I think that it is the temp being around 1C warmer that expected that has foxed the Met office - Snow is Moderate here and would easily accumulate if the temperature was around 0C - Must be the same with you woody

Edited January 10, 2010 by Jonathan Evans

[benb]

Moderate snow falling here. The reason it's not sticking here is because it's being blown around before it has a chance to accumulate. I've a fresch 0.5cm 'mini-drift' at the side of the house where the wind has blown it!

[Ukwoody]

snow has indeed been moderate here most of he moring Jon, but nothing to show for it, and alas I fear I am turning into Pascal and thinking we aint getting anything of real interest today or even tuesday.

woody