Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Ukwoody]

Morning all. Well it has warmed up here considerably all the overnight frost gone off the cars. Sky that very even light grey colour and thats it. Really hope there is something to come! Met office has totally changed the forecast for here. At 9pm last evening it was solid snow for 4 days. Now it's light snow today. none basically tomorrow in fact sunny periods. Heavy snow tues then rain weds sun thurs! very disapointing considering all the hype and being forced to go shopping yesterday "just in case"!

woody

[The Weather Dragon]

Woody - we will see some light possibly moderate snow today & overnight into tomorrow - not amounting to much - that's about it for us until the next cold spell which could be soon. Milder (not exceptionally mild) air will be with us (pembrokeshire) by tuesday

[Totoro]

Morning all. Well it has warmed up here considerably all the overnight frost gone off the cars. Sky that very even light grey colour and thats it. Really hope there is something to come! Met office has totally changed the forecast for here. At 9pm last evening it was solid snow for 4 days. Now it's light snow today. none basically tomorrow in fact sunny periods. Heavy snow tues then rain weds sun thurs! very disapointing considering all the hype and being forced to go shopping yesterday "just in case"!

woody

Not sure which forecasts you've seen but for south and west Wales it has ALWAYS been forecast as light snow, perhaps with the odd moderate or 'heavy' burst.

Also worth watching the streamers forming up and moving into south and west Wales right now:

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=170&y=224

[benb]

Light snow here- biggish flakes blowing around in the wind.

Temps +0.2c

The sky looks wonderfully grey and snowy. I Imagine the snowwill pick up during the afternoon as the moister air arrives from the E/SE.

You can see how moist air is a key factor here from the radar- see how the precipitation becomes heavier after it has left the land and is over the Bristol Channel.

Although the wind is predominately NE, the precipitation is developing/moving from the SE towards the NW. This bodes well for southern coastal areas later.

Re Tues/Wed's 'Blizzard'- still large variations in the models. The worst is GFS, which brings the mild air quickly over the majority of Wales. A short spell of snow followed by rain (away from v.high ground in the north- if it happens that way! I hope it's wrong- but GFS is certainly sticking to its guns atm.

[keithlucky]

Woody - we will see some light possibly moderate snow today & overnight into tomorrow - not amounting to much - that's about it for us until the next cold spell which could be soon. Milder (not exceptionally mild) air will be with us (pembrokeshire) by tuesday

No disrepect mate i prefer to ian fergersson whos says snow for wedensday n devon swales hes been very accurate for swest and s wales.

[Ukwoody]

Not sure which forecasts you've seen but for south and west Wales it has ALWAYS been forecast as light snow, perhaps with the odd moderate or 'heavy' burst.

Also worth watching the streamers forming up and moving into south and west Wales right now:

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=170&y=224

last night I posted the updated forecast from the Mets site for Milford which showed a constant mixture of light and heavy snow for four days solid here. They posted it at 21.01.

Looking over towards the west it's quite dark but lightish here, though (and dont get excited Jon, LOl) we do have a few specks of the white stuff falling.

I do note though the mets warning was for wales this evening which is still in place.

woody

Edited January 10, 2010 by ukwoody

[pascalsbongo]

Well well well, what a load of boxxocks, it would seem the BBC etc have way over done this snow event.

Have been reading the south east forum and they are very dissapointed,and its even raining over there now.

I think it has been a case over forecasting this whole thing so nobody would be caught out,then just keep on down grading it.

Just looked on BBC news 24 and rather ironically i can hear the forecast but the weather forecaster has frozen with his hand stuck over Cumbria at 1400hrs on Sunday.

Looked out the window and i can see a few very very fine grains of snow being driven around in the much forecast hurricane force 2-4mph winds.

Way way over cooked ,and i now really do think it will all be over Tuesday.

Higher up though Tuesday should be a white out for some time.

Oh wait hes started moving again now,like the weather hes thawed out.

The BBC graphics now show rain here shortly.

Could even be all over today.

Edited January 10, 2010 by pascalsbongo

[welshwizard]

one thing i have noticed this morn is the gritters are out in force,if they think its only light snow,why would they be wasteing all this grit? and my mate just rang me who is in police force and he said they been warned for next 3 days.and he hates the white stuff and was moaning like hell lol.

lets just wait and see but any way going up bwlch at 10.15 so should be fun again lol.

[pascalsbongo]

one thing i have noticed this morn is the gritters are out in force,if they think its only light snow,why would they be wasteing all this grit? and my mate just rang me who is in police force and he said they been warned for next 3 days.and he hates the white stuff and was moaning like hell lol.

lets just wait and see but any way going up bwlch at 10.15 so should be fun again lol.

Me too , im going out up the valley too board and sledge in some proper snow, and i expect by the time i get back Swansea will be back to muddy green.

I hope im dreadfully wrong.

[Totoro]

I think some people need to invest in a barrowload of patience.

Also, don't set your expectations so high - you know that the forecasters are often wrong, so just wait and see what happens.

[benb]

Looking at the Euro radar, www.meteox.co.uk , it seems there's load of thicker cloud and precipitation exiting the Low Countries and about to hit the East of England. It may be this that will eventually bring heavier precipitation to Wales and what has sparked the MetO alerts. Patience...

[Marcus_surfer]

Lightest snow i have ever seen here, but the sky is very cloudy

[derrylynne]

Snow here and been snowing for some time. Only light but a slight covering. I imagine many in South East England are pleased it has turned to sleet or rain, bless them, laughs. This is warmer air moving in from the East, and the north sea is warm enough to modify the air as it moves turning the snow to sleet or rain near the coast. Most the east coast is having a slight thaw - this does not translate to raging warm temperature. Having said that if any of you guys want wall to wall snow for the whole of the winter you are living in the wrong place. Better to move to Canada or Russia. It is normal in what is a temperate climate for it to blow warm and cold. So we can expect it to turn warmer. At least for a while - and then for the cold to reload at some further time. Don't forget we are only in the early part the winter. Having said that quite a lot of Wales will get a lot of snow in the next few days, even if it turns to rain in places like Cardiff and Swansea or lower ground. The valleys and Brecons, all high ground in fact is likely to retain precipitation snow.

[pascalsbongo]

Looking at the Euro radar, www.meteox.co.uk , it seems there's load of thicker cloud and precipitation exiting the Low Countries and about to hit the East of England. It may be this that will eventually bring heavier precipitation to Wales and what has sparked the MetO alerts. Patience...

Yes i do need patience,but having seen a few forecasts and read the south east forum (ok thats miles way) it just put me a little down, and i get the feeling the whole event has been over cooked to "protect us" and so nobody could point the finger ala Michael Fish 87 stylee.

There are now a few more grains of snow merrily dancing around my garden,little do they know the evil rain is about to swoop like a peregrine falcon in full flight snatches a cute baby mouse and instantly ends its life.

However up the valleys the baby mice are made of steel.

[CRACKPOT]

Hi Guys,

Trawled around the other regional forums - there is a lot of talk about a thaw at the moment - I think we have got a lot of warmer air than was first thought. Unless we get heavy ppn this is going to be a nothing event. I know they have forecast, sorry warned us, that this will be from 18:00 onwards on Sunday - just cannot see it myself. There seems to be a lot of dispondency around - we just need to hope there are some great surprises to come - after all, weather is pretty unpredictable! Even though many try.

The event on Tuesday, this seems to be slow coming in and I think there is warm uppers well in advance of it so this might become a non event on Tuesday as well - so if we do not get much overnight and Moday daytime - I think we are at an end for the time being of snowcasting!

JK

[keithlucky]

I think some people need to invest in a barrowload of patience.

Also, don't set your expectations so high - you know that the forecasters are often wrong, so just wait and see what happens.

Good point light light snow been falling in swansea about ihr thats what was forecaste heavier snow not due until 6 pm ,as jackone says light snow doesent show up on radar.

[chopper66]

Light Snow here on the seafront in Mumbles. 24 hours of this and we will have at least 1 mm

[Ukwoody]

Light Snow here on the seafront in Mumbles. 24 hours of this and we will have at least 1 mm

blimey 24 hrs! must be snowing hard then compared to here, LOL ;-)

woody

[keithlucky]

Yes but notice how the heavier snow is ever trundling north wards from devon.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Yes but notice how the heavier snow is ever trundling north wards from devon.

Snow picking up here now.

[Ukwoody]

actually if I zoom in on meteox the snow gets very heavy in about 30 mins working north from deveon, but we'll see. Whilst not as pessemistic as Pascal, I have a fear this is going to be a washout not a white out.

woody

[pascalsbongo]

Was that band of snow to the south west not supposed to be hitting us??

Looks like the Republic is in for a mega event perhaps.

Looking at the garden table ,i would say that each sqaure foot contains about 100 grains of snow ranging from very very small to even smaller than very very small.

I would guess it would take about 3-4000 of these tiny grains to cover a whole sqaure foot (and this is without any of it melting).

Therefor at this current rate i expect to be snowed in just in time for the world cup.

[benb]

Yes but notice how the heavier snow is ever trundling north wards from devon.

For sure.

We were forecast light snow for today- we're getting light snow! Don't see what the problem is, personally.

Coming in a little heavier here now. Pembrokeshire looks like it's having a heavier burst...

[keithlucky]

Swest have had 4 cms they all reporting snow moving northwards,

Edited January 10, 2010 by keithlucky

[pascalsbongo]

actually if I zoom in on meteox the snow gets very heavy in about 30 mins working north from deveon, but we'll see. Whilst not as pessemistic as Pascal, I have a fear this is going to be a washout not a white out.

woody

Seems my doom mongering is getting to you woody. best to expect a washout, as you will enjoy it so much more if it isnt.

Actually your area for now looks quite good.