South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I'd think the 30cm was probably reserved for the highest bits of Dartmoor/Bodmin Moor and possibly Exmoor. I'm not sure the low is going to make too much in-roads for it to include high ground else where in the SW, but as with everything its such a fine line, take last night and today as an example.

Still -1.6C here and levelling off a touch now.

Going to go and have a read thru the MOT now and see whats going on there.

[Bristawl Si]

Last post before i nip to the local for a couple of post-sunday lunch beers.

It's worth us remembering it's only 10th January - another 6-8 weeks left of winter 09/10 - not a bad start, eh?!

[Snowkissed]

And Here is todays weather forecast " The whole of the south can expect disgraceful amounts of snow Tuesday and Wednesday which will come to nothing by the end of Monday" ref. new met office warning

lol .... you are spot on !!

[theprophecyman]

I'd think the 30cm was probably reserved for the highest bits of Dartmoor/Bodmin Moor and possibly Exmoor. I'm not sure the low is going to make too much in-roads for it to include high ground else where in the SW, but as with everything its such a fine line, take last night and today as an example.

Still -1.6C here and levelling off a touch now.

Going to go and have a read thru the MOT now and see whats going on there.

Have fun reading the MOT thread, I do try reading some of the info on there, but it gives me headaches most of the time will you be able to report back and let us know your thoughts?

Edited January 10, 2010 by theprophecyman

[yipikiaye]

Last post before i nip to the local for a couple of post-sunday lunch beers.

It's worth us remembering it's only 10th January - another 6-8 weeks left of winter 09/10 - not a bad start, eh?!

Thx for the last few posts of yours they given me some more hope now.

Your posts seem pretty positive compared to the yesterday posts all negative mostly if i remember correctly.I still do think we could see something special before this ends

[West is Best]

Because I'm a bit of a loon I've carried on running every day through this: 70 miles this week. So here's me and the little one just before I did a 9 miler today through the snow:

I'm running the London Marathon to raise money for Devon Air Ambulance in case anyone wonders why, oh why!

[fromey]

afternoon, i have noticed on sat24.com that we r having cloud moving up from the s/e of the channel most of today,but after this passes it looks at going eastly again, temps here have droped rapidly after 1200 with snow furrys again.

fromey

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Have fun reading the MOT thread, I do try reading some of the info on there, but it gives me headaches most of the time will you be able to report back and let us know your thoughts?

You have to filter out the off topic posts by using the ignore function! :lol:

ECM and UKMO seem to keep the cold going for the bulk of the UK with the exception of the extreme SW and Southern Ireland, the GFS 6z went someway to backing up the ECM and then 12z should be interesting.

Basically the low is not really going to make any inroads (except to the areas mentioned) and the snow could be 'interesting' for those areas, but basically the high over Scandinavia is too strong at the moment.

Definately less cold rather than mild I think was the summing up.

Because I'm a bit of a loon I've carried on running every day through this: 70 miles this week. So here's me and the little one just before I did a 9 miler today through the snow:

I'm running the London Marathon to raise money for Devon Air Ambulance in case anyone wonders why, oh why!

Looks like round here!(though we have more snow) :lol:

Excellent cause WiB and if you have an online page to sponsor you can you send me the link?

[Evening thunder]

I respect what the Met Office do and everything but this one is really getting me puzzled actually.

Is there anyone out there that can explain HOW this heavy snow can happen for Tuesday?

Take a look at this image: 850's widely above freezing in the SW at 3pm Tuesday according to the GFS. And at this time the main frontal precipitation is out west associated with these +2-4C 850's.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100110/06/57/h850t850eu.png

Now unless the charts the MetO are looking at show something rather different and/or the GFS is seriously overestimating the 850's at this short range, I have no idea how it can snow here!

Is there anyone that can explain because this one has actually got me very confused and puzzled :lol:

[WESTERN SNOWS]

afternoon, i have noticed on sat24.com that we r having cloud moving up from the s/e of the channel most of today,but after this passes it looks at going eastly again, temps here have droped rapidly after 1200 with snow furrys again.

fromey

just seen the weather warning from the metoffice for late tuesday into wednesday its utter glourious bristol will get between 8 inches and a foot i reckon this is so so great and also the back track from the met about the severe weather warnings for s/e theres nothin there always over ramping the south east lmfao bring it on ATLANTIC we knew we could rely on you seeing your our old friend and allie we love you storm systems form the MIGHTY ATLANTIC YIPPEEEEEEEE

[snowking]

To be honest I think theres been a lot of criticism unfairly placed at the Met Office here with their short term forecasts - granted they got this very wrong but you have to remember, as today has proven, it is not an exact science!

Setups dont come more marginal than this in terms of precip and temperatures, lets take a look at what we have:

1) An UPPER warm front

2) Temperatures around 1-2c

3) Dew points at 0c

Three of the most borderline variables for a rain/snow boundary

I think the critical thing today has been dew points - the moment it reached 0c here it turned to sleet/rain

SK

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I respect what the Met Office do and everything but this one is really getting me puzzled actually.

Is there anyone out there that can explain HOW this heavy snow can happen for Tuesday?

Take a look at this image: 850's widely above freezing in the SW at 3pm Tuesday according to the GFS. And at this time the main frontal precipitation is out west associated with these +2-4C 850's.

http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png

Now unless the charts the MetO are looking at show something rather different and/or the GFS is seriously overestimating the 850's at this short range, I have no idea how it can snow here!

Is there anyone that can explain because this one has actually got me very confused and puzzled

Depending on the flow the upper temps aren't always too important for snow. Apparently.

But I'd guess thats why its a 60% warning and not an 80-90% warning :lol:

[theprophecyman]

thanks Dartmoor_Matt

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Depending on the flow the upper temps aren't always too important for snow. Apparently.

But I'd guess thats why its a 60% warning and not an 80-90% warning :lol:

yes but it says high risk and normally they always go for the moderate risk warning so they must be really confident of this and if it comes off its gonna be the amrageddon of snow dumps making what we got last wednesday look like a dusting:drinks:

[snowking]

I respect what the Met Office do and everything but this one is really getting me puzzled actually.

Is there anyone out there that can explain HOW this heavy snow can happen for Tuesday?

Take a look at this image: 850's widely above freezing in the SW at 3pm Tuesday according to the GFS. And at this time the main frontal precipitation is out west associated with these +2-4C 850's.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100110/06/57/h850t850eu.png

Now unless the charts the MetO are looking at show something rather different and/or the GFS is seriously overestimating the 850's at this short range, I have no idea how it can snow here!

Is there anyone that can explain because this one has actually got me very confused and puzzled :lol:

It depends which model you are following - UKMO and ECMWF may show different

Also, higher res GFS may be needed to view the 850 boundary's

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html

SOME eastern parts of wales and the SW still at risk due to the continental feed right up until 0c even according to GFS

SK

[theprophecyman]

To be honest I think theres been a lot of criticism unfairly placed at the Met Office here with their short term forecasts - granted they got this very wrong but you have to remember, as today has proven, it is not an exact science!

Setups dont come more marginal than this in terms of precip and temperatures, lets take a look at what we have:

1) An UPPER warm front

2) Temperatures around 1-2c

3) Dew points at 0c

Three of the most borderline variables for a rain/snow boundary

I think the critical thing today has been dew points - the moment it reached 0c here it turned to sleet/rain

SK

cheers SK

so with this front pushing into the SW Tues/Wed next week, would you say (with the info we have at the moment) there is a potential risk of heavy snow for the south-west? Just wondering how far the front will push in (central parts, west London?) - with what I've read so far it seems it will push so far then the easterly reloads will fight the front back out to the atlantic - is that about right??

Cheers

[Everlast]

lol .... you are spot on !!

Or more to the point: "There will be a significant snow event through much of Cornwall, Devon, and Somerset. that will somehow miraculously bypass most of Dorset".

Seriously, I think there's more chance of one of us in the west country winning the national lottery than it snowing in this part of the country between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Oh well, I am grateful for the little snow we had here on Wednesday, though

Edited January 10, 2010 by Everlast

[Methuselah]

Time for a new thread, folks...

Link: