3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 4

[lizzieloo202]

Why don't you leave this thread if you can't stand people being unhappy about the forecast being slightly wrong?

it's the whineing I can't cope with.

"They said this, this didn't happen WAH WAH WAH!"

"They don't know what they're doing"

etc etc ad infinitum...........

Edited January 10, 2010 by lizzieloo202

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes we were Met-rolled today, but a few things people have to realise is:

Weve equalled last years winter index (cold, snow etc)

Were technically not half way through winter

February is usually our cold and snowiest month

Temperatures will be below normal next week.

The long range models show the proper cold returning later in the month with snow

Who wants the mild south westerlies?!? Most people dont

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowman0697

[If Wishes made Weather]

PLEASE can people stop whineing about incorrect forecasting, it's been said time and time again that these conditions at the moment are incredibly difficult to forecast :lol:

As I have noted the odd time before, I think that there are difficulties in peoples expectations. A couple of things that we need to remember, especially in this region:

1 - we live in the direst region of the UK. We have all the advantages in the summer. Even this year we had the river Chelmer drying up in summer whilst other regions had some form of perpetual rain all summer. We cannot expect this dry local climate to suddenly become really wet because it will suit us to get loads of snow.

2 - lowland UK is marginal for snow, even in cold weather. We need to see what gets classed as "very cold" or "exceptional" temperatures to almost certainly see snow. Trouble is, the air masses that bring these conditions are continental in origin, and therefore drier than air that has either been sourced over the Atlantic, or, has had a longer sea fetch and so could pick up moisture. Bear in mind, there is nothing on the models this week that is above cold/cool at present. In terms of expectation exxpect a dry week with a bit of sleety rain, maybe.

3 - altitude plays a major difference in this marginal climate. We don't have altitude in this region, we have Fens where 10m high unevenesses get classed as hills. Even in the northern regions altitude makes a difference. As someone who worked on the highways I have had many days when we have set off from the depot with a big V plough on the front of the truck in rain, knowing that just 200 m higher into the dales, its falling as snow.

4 - for the sort of snow levels that get seen in films from the States, Baltic regions etc - or indeed here in the 60's, we need (stalling) frontal conditions. For us here best by far is something sourced in the north/northeast and wrapped into a low tanking down the North Sea or out of the Baltic. Nothing like this has been shown on any models/charts this winter. At most, what we could expect from the easterlys that have been shown - and to a degree have been experienced - is an accretion of snow levels through constant, repeated showers. This is what has been happening in the Noth East and in Scotland for some time. Check out the road cameras on the A9 or even at Carter Bar. For whatever reason - and I hope the more technical people can explain this - the easterly winds have not (as yet) brought the showers we experienced last February.

Note the word February - we arent yet through January.

[Tom D]

I've got a light snow flurry here, no sign of anything on the radar so either it's just formed or it's too light to be picked up. Temp is hovering around 1.5c but feels much colder in the wind.

[lizzieloo202]

*Poof*

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

:lol:

[Paul Sherman]

New thread when we get to Page 24 Folks!

Heavy Snow Shower here which is Settling :lol:

[Ben_Cambs]

I think that by next weekend we could see the cold from the East return.

The AO and NAO look set to remain negative but perhaps a gradual climb towards a more average state (although still negative) looks set for both come the next 7 days. I think that in 7-10 days time we are however going to see the NAO become more negative than the AO

This bodes very well for colder weather

Good signs for a reload of the Easterly, IF high pressure builds back in from the end of the month there is a cold chance the colder conditions will return. We will have to wait and see

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowman0697

[snoweyowl]

very light snow in hertford!!

[Paul Sherman]

New Thread above

Paul S