London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

I basically think, and this seems to be backed up by the continuous tv forecasts for snow, that late tonight and through tomorrow we're going to see outbreaks of light/moderate snow spreading west. The showers over the SE are fizzling out and will die out. But the snow thats moving west across Germany and the Low Countries will head towards us. Not massive depths for us, just fairly persistent light/moderate snow which will then shift further north and west during Monday. The next 6-8 hours will probably be mainly dry for most of us.

All we can hope for is that the snow peps up a bit more as it crosses the North Sea, although I wouldnt expect it to do so very much.

Then we have to look towards Tuesday/Wednesday and just hope that the Low moving in from the SW extends a bit further NE than is currently being forecast, but not too far NE, so that we potentially see heavy snow from that. But that is still a relatively long way off and I wouldnt focus too much on the details of it until about Monday evening/Tuesday. The threat at the moment is mainly for the SW and Wales. Far SW will see rain.

I think that's a reasonable assumption.

There seems to be two large bands over Germany at the moment. I think the second band has our name on it. Albeit light PPN. I cannot see where else (what the Met are forecasting) it could be coming from.

Edited January 9, 2010 by maxiboy

[Suttonian]

Hi Jan

The different Models have had hell with this "Upper" Warm front for days now, some have had it across Lincs/E Anglia others Across the SE, Varying Precip amounts from 1-3cm to 10-15cm, Warm Fronts are a Nightmare to forecast plain and simple. In answer to your question both the Meto, Sky, GFS, Netweather Amatuers have not got a clue until the radar shows some life = Nowcasting

So I suppose then Paul it would be fair to assume the snow projections for the next 48 hours were for the media to cover themselves in the public eye in case?

[Vesuvius]

I panic bought 4 bottles of wine today - does that count

That's called a Saturday for me

[staplehurst]

Just been out for a measure, 23 flat cm. I seriously have not seen this much snow in my life!

[scotteboi]

I panic bought 4 bottles of wine today - does that count

Yes it does, I panic bought a fridge pack of Fosters...and think I might have to panic buy another one tomorrow!!!

[mesocyclone]

I panic bought 4 bottles of wine today - does that count

lol, yeah i think it does

[weather eater]

Can I just take a moment to calm things down a notch CG

The meaning of Forecast [noun] a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop.

No matter if your an amateur or professional you can only forcast what you think may happen based on all available data.

Given that the guys on this site will have as much data available to them (within a bit) than the professionals they have every right to give us the benefit of their considerable experience and let us know their thoughts on how they see things panning out.

The "professionals" are also giving thier opinions....we will see tomorrow who's interpretation was nearest the mark....surley thats half the fun sometimes!

Just popped in to see how things are going in the SE, I'm always happy for who ever get a drop of the white stuff. Yours is a top post, one of very few in the last few pages. SM is a very good forecaster as are the professionals at the MO, snow is almost always a forecasting nightmare and it might be well for some to hang back on whose right and whose wrong until after the fat lady has sung.

[Wintersmith]

/me slides note under the door.....

"Its been snowing almost constantly here since 14.30 this afternoon. Proper snow, like in the old days..... garden is about ready to disapear"

[Snowdays]

Just been out for a measure, 23 flat cm. I seriously have not seen this much snow in my life!

23cm?? That's not fair, you can't have all that! Give it back. Now.

[Paul Sherman]

So I suppose then Paul it would be fair to assume the snow projections for the next 48 hours were for the media to cover themselves in the public eye in case?

Yes Pretty Much

Just read PJB's Update and it is grim reading for most of us in the South, he is saying the Heavier Precip will cross much further North during tomorrow, not much at all for the South and this is backed by both the GFS & ECMWF

[West Sussex Kate]

Will the met office up date there warnings if everything is going away now!?

[neilthegooner]

23cm?? That's not fair, you can't have all that! Give it back. Now.

Shall I go and measure the snow on the garden chair?

[mesocyclone]

Just been out for a measure, 23 flat cm. I seriously have not seen this much snow in my life!

Thats the exact amount on my car today when i tried and failed to dig it out from tue/wed. Unreal isn't it!

We've had persistent light snow quite a lot of

this eve, feeling very lucky going by some of the posts on here.

Edited January 9, 2010 by mesocyclone

[staplehurst]

Yes Pretty Much

Just read PJB's Update and it is grim reading for most of us in the South, he is saying the Heavier Precip will cross much further North during tomorrow, not much at all for the South and this is backed by both the GFS & ECMWF

OK the past few GFS runs have been showing this.

Snow continuing in Kent/East Sussex in particular all night and affecting coastal Essex, Suffolk and later Norfolk.

Outbreaks of light snow develop over the SW and south Wales tomorrow morning, and across the Midlands and the rest of Wales during the afternoon, heavy on the hills by evening. This leaves a rather large hole over most the Home Counties, including London, and parts of central southern England away from the south coast. This is how I feel things are going, but I hope I am wrong for you guys

Admittedly the snow looks lighter on the radar now compared to earlier.

I did post that about an hour ago. That is what worries me. The Midlands northwards and westwards look best

[Kent Snow]

Thaw quite noticable in Canterbury City this evening. +1.2C and sleety pellets falling.

[weather eater]

So I suppose then Paul it would be fair to assume the snow projections for the next 48 hours were for the media to cover themselves in the public eye in case?

Try doing their job, whatever they forecast if it goes wrong they will get criticised, we have potentially very dangerous conditions, better to err on the side of caution than risk anybody dying through lack of warnings.

[barmybint]

indeed! a customer bought 12 loaves of bread on Wednesday!

That's ridiculous - surely the most anybody needs is 5, plus a couple of fish

[Snowdays]

Shall I go and measure the snow on the garden chair?

If it's more than the 8 semi-melted cms in my back garden, then no

[Paul Sherman]

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