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Ed Stone

Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

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METO warning out for Sun,Mon,Tues & Wed for South West Wales - Some uncertainty over the track of the lows - could be exeptionally heavy snow or Sleet/Rain

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Hi Guys,

Here we go - snow anticipated Sunday onwards? There seems to be appearing a few cracks in this now with it only expected to be light. Some places might get lucky with some 'moderate' amounts, 5-10cm. This will blow around and drift in the brisk wind. This WILL cause problems.

It seems there are possibilities that a breakdown is on the way, some say as early as Tuesday, some inevitably saying Wednesday/Thursday. I think this year is different, and this block will fight back and cause heavy snow as this happens - hopefully Wales will be the 'successful' battleground.

There will also soon be 'doom and gloom' posts from 'mildies' trying to wind other people up - they have been unable to do this the last 2 weeks hiding in their 'warm' hovels! Alas, they will apear - guys don't bite - I am convinced we will keep hold of this cold - and if it does go it will only be brief before a reload occurs mid month as is being predicted by the GFS. I know some of the GFS has been poor, but not all the time. Lets hope for upgrades in the charts later/tomorrow and we can keep smiling!

JK

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seems warmer this morning. -4.6C in Machynlleth.

Sporadic clouds dotted around the sky travelling east to west - some look quite 'thick' as well (i.e. in terms of size, not intelligence).

Dare I mention the 's' word?????

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METO waring ot for Sun,Mon,Tues & Wed for South West Wales - Some uncertainty over the track of the lows - could be exeptionally heavy snow or Sleet/Rain

Yes Jonathan - missed that one being added. This is going against some of the charts, but the fax chart is showing this snow to cccur so the charts might come in line with this also? Although it might be the block fighting back against the breakdown, fist attempt.

JK

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There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of south Wales and SW England on Wednesday.

There is potential for further outbreaks of snow, which could locally be heavy and prolonged at times. This will lead to further icy stretches on roads and pavements.

Issued at: 0125 Sat 9 Jan

This for Wednesday is the MetO 'standard' warning worded the same as the others when they are unsure.

JK

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There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of south Wales and SW England on Wednesday.

There is potential for further outbreaks of snow, which could locally be heavy and prolonged at times. This will lead to further icy stretches on roads and pavements.

Issued at: 0125 Sat 9 Jan

This for Wednesday is the MetO 'standard' warning worded the same as the others when they are unsure.

JK

Yes - Looking at the Faxes it does seem that the block will be stronger with the lows taking a more southerly track - could be battleground scenario for Wales - interesting times & definately an upgrade

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Hi Guys,

Here we go - snow anticipated Sunday onwards? There seems to be appearing a few cracks in this now with it only expected to be light. Some places might get lucky with some 'moderate' amounts, 5-10cm. This will blow around and drift in the brisk wind. This WILL cause problems.

It seems there are possibilities that a breakdown is on the way, some say as early as Tuesday, some inevitably saying Wednesday/Thursday. I think this year is different, and this block will fight back and cause heavy snow as this happens - hopefully Wales will be the 'successful' battleground.

There will also soon be 'doom and gloom' posts from 'mildies' trying to wind other people up - they have been unable to do this the last 2 weeks hiding in their 'warm' hovels! Alas, they will apear - guys don't bite - I am convinced we will keep hold of this cold - and if it does go it will only be brief before a reload occurs mid month as is being predicted by the GFS. I know some of the GFS has been poor, but not all the time. Lets hope for upgrades in the charts later/tomorrow and we can keep smiling!

JK

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the beeb and sky dont seem to be mentioning the snow for wales, is it still happening?

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seems warmer this morning. -4.6C in Machynlleth.

Sporadic clouds dotted around the sky travelling east to west - some look quite 'thick' as well (i.e. in terms of size, not intelligence).

Dare I mention the 's' word?????

yes you can mention the word s**w/we're gonna get loads - loved the joke "some looked quite thick"

the beeb and sky dont seem to be mentioning the snow for wales, is it still happening?

definitely - 5cms at least on sunday if not more on high ground + additional falls monday and tuesday with the easterly wind will add up to drifting and more disruption

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Showers already starting to make progress in to wales now!

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Re snow Sun/Mon- agree: amounts will generally be small, though it is still a case of one to watch. If we think back to Tuesday, what many predicted to be a non-event actually turned out to be a snowfest for many! So keep an eye on those radars.

You should have listened to this thread, where a non event was not forecast.

As for Tues/Weds/Thurs- I don't see how discussing the timing and nature of the potential break down is winding people up! This is a rare synoptic situation- come mid-week, we could be living the dream with the blizzard of, at the very least, the decade. Or, we could be traipsing into work through slush and drizzle thinking about what could have been!

It's situations like this that make weather watching the, IMO, thrilling experience it is!

Anyway- re the breakdown: here's some snap shots from the models this morning.

post-7763-12630267769942_thumb.png

post-7763-12630268452842_thumb.png

post-7763-12630268650842_thumb.png

Obviously, make you're own minds up. But, IMO, they're not all pure snow events for all, especially the GFS.

On the positive side, the MetO seem pretty sure something snowy will reach us from the SW, hence the warnings.

My thoughts on the current situation, snow is expected across much of Wales during Sunday and Monday.

With light snow, amounts are difficult to get right, it was said on on the latest News 24 forecast, that 2-5cm generally, 10cm on places. (For Sunday)

That maybe right, I did say yesterday that 15cm was possible in places, and perhaps combined Sunday and Monday this is still possible.

Looking ahead to the fronts from the South West, clearly this is an exciting and interesting event. there events in the past have given local areas very heavy snowfalls, but we only need to cast our mind back to before Christmas to see how it can go wrong. A detailed analysis will follow shortly.

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Sunny day here, so far, seem quite alot of showers in England, moving towards wales!? looking foward to tomorrow/monday even if it is only 5cm we get :) Wind has picked up to from the ENE.

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Sunny day here, so far, seem quite alot of showers in England, moving towards wales!? looking foward to tomorrow/monday even if it is only 5cm we get :) Wind has picked up to from the ENE.

I think you'll find with this set up over the next couple of days your username says it all!!!!!!!!!! + drifting

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My current thinking is for the South West of Wales & coastal Southern Wales in general to miss out on any snow events from Monday evening onwards. For a snow event to occur with an attack from the SW/W we need a pressure build stretching up to Iceland to maintain the undercutting cold. Here are two excellent examples of such synoptic patterns that occured in Jan 82 & Jan 85 producing blizzards for much of South/Mid Wales. We haven't got the rising pressure up around iceland this time and so we can expect rain from Tuesday onwards / possibly some snow on the leading edge of any advancing fronts. In summary some light snow tomorrow and Monday - feeling bitterly cold with windchill - then a slow warm up from Tuesday with rain at times.

post-2553-12630331990842_thumb.gif

post-2553-12630332070742_thumb.gif

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It has been snowing lightly here for about half an hour. Not enough to come to anything though...

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GFS Op run 06Hz

GFS bring the low in close to the south of the UK, but with winds from the SSE these would be cold at the surface, but warmer aloft coming from the Atlantic, these are closer to southerly than Easterly.

This is NOT a good breakdown, while certainly Mid and North Wales, could do OK, Only the highest ground we see snow in South Wales, think back to a repeat performance to the event before Christmas.

UKMO

A slighlty slower breakdown compared to the GFS, and colder uppers than compared to the GFS.

It is difficult to tell likely snow/rain limit, with limited info past t+72, but more snow would be likely if this run came off.

ECM

The ECM is similar up to say Tuesday, but then undercuts the high Pressure keeping us on the cold side of the low. This is PERFECT and a IMO a fully snow event, however precipitation may be limited.

post-213-12630342694042_thumb.png post-213-12630342722842_thumb.png

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No frost on the car at all this morning - was nice to be able to jump in & drive off withou warming it up & scraping it first

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Snowflakes in the wind here too was like this last night also not amounting to much either. As for the likely hood of rain from tuesday alot of you are underestimating the desnsity of the serfice col dthat's here and aren't taking this into account, you can't make a normal forecast in circumstances like this. Also no frost on car windows here had to laugh however neighbours saying a thaw should set in today being nto so cold, Where i then explained to them that it was cold but the wind was too strong and the moisture levels to low from anything to appear on the windscreen. Was a hard process but i wan the argument :D.

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Meto update likely to warn of heavy disruptive snow for Wednesday, Ian Fergusson warns of milder air moving into SW UK after wdnesday turning it to sleet and rain at coastal areas. If that includes South Wales as we are certainly not the absolute sw, is unclear but obviously someone is gonna get a huge amount of snow. May be that in Wales will get snow on wednesday then after that its depends on how far warm air pushes from sw. This is the very very latest information and should be reflected on warnings by meto later today.

Sounds very interesting indeed.

So standing buy my forecast made last night on the last thread at about 11pm.

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My current thinking is for the South West of Wales & coastal Southern Wales in general to miss out on any snow events from Monday evening onwards. For a snow event to occur with an attack from the SW/W we need a pressure build stretching up to Iceland to maintain the undercutting cold. Here are two excellent examples of such synoptic patterns that occured in Jan 82 & Jan 85 producing blizzards for much of South/Mid Wales. We haven't got the rising pressure up around iceland this time and so we can expect rain from Tuesday onwards / possibly some snow on the leading edge of any advancing fronts. In summary some light snow tomorrow and Monday - feeling bitterly cold with windchill - then a slow warm up from Tuesday with rain at times.

I think you'll find that the meto would disagree with you on this one and stretch the cold further into the week - possibly till towards the end of the week

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We have light snow here a sign of things to come ?

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GFS Op run 06Hz

GFS bring the low in close to the south of the UK, but with winds from the SSE these would be cold at the surface, but warmer aloft coming from the Atlantic, these are closer to southerly than Easterly.

This is NOT a good breakdown, while certainly Mid and North Wales, could do OK, Only the highest ground we see snow in South Wales, think back to a repeat performance to the event before Christmas.

UKMO

A slighlty slower breakdown compared to the GFS, and colder uppers than compared to the GFS.

It is difficult to tell likely snow/rain limit, with limited info past t+72, but more snow would be likely if this run came off.

ECM

The ECM is similar up to say Tuesday, but then undercuts the high Pressure keeping us on the cold side of the low. This is PERFECT and a IMO a fully snow event.

[

Great summary.

Going to be ace model watching over the weekend.

Only one thing is certain: what will be, will be...

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