General Model Output Discussion

[phil nw.]

Yeah like Steve M and some others have said the 500hpa charts showing a Southerly flow can look deceptively mild.

One must check the origion of the surface flow in this setup.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0

Even the 850hpa temps are -2-3c across many areas on this so 2m temps. certainly below average.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=0&map=0

Look at GFS T144 a "mild"Southerly?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

No -not on the ground-even the far SW coasts below normal.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.png

No doubt the freeze is over but the cold spell isn`t.

We have to remember Arctic air doesn`t belong here and unless we keep a continual feed of such then our bitter cold air will modify even without the Atlantic.

I don`t think we are close to our traditional Mild SWesterly regime as long as the UK is so far North of the Jet with much of the energy still going South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12015.png

I think T72hrs. is about as far as agreement goes for the detail so adjustments to the modelling beyond are inevitable anyway.

[johncoolj]

ok so the Scandi high will make ireland and uk get very cold again maybe in 2 weeks time is that what you guys are saying so we will have a brief mild spell then the cold air will come back that not what irish weather service are saying they say its back to the wet and mild weather

[bluearmy]

well looking at ecm, i didnt expect to have to wait a week for the second trough attack !!

[MR EXTREMES]

when you say west I say west country going by what Dan Corbett said. This is the model discussion thread so we are discussing the ECM not what we think the general trend will be ignoring the current models

well id of thought the bcc would be using models for there forecast.

and im not disputing the ecm holds onto cold for longer in parts of the uk as the forecast tonight suggested.

so 6c in the west country and eastern areas being around 3c or 4c and futher north being 1c to 3c then this would suggest slightly below for most areas apart from southern and the west country.

the ukmo would be the most progressive with the gfs backtacking from its recent progressive outputs,

but all models suggest milder to what we have had.

and why ignore the current models when they are all suggesting slightly milder?

Edited January 10, 2010 by badboy657

[Thundery wintry showers]

A warning- people are getting too excited over the ECMWF's output in FI. It is only one of three possible outcomes, the other two being that the Atlantic wins out or we stay in a no man's land.

Btw the last couple of GFS runs have not suggested temperatures of 3-4C in the east and 6C in the west- you can easily chop a couple of degrees off those values, especially the further south you are.

[Snowyowl9]

As has been stated, those southerlies that people are commenting on the ECM run, are indeed south easterlys and from a very cold continent.

Regards,

Tom.

Yes indeed March 2006 comes to mind there when the Beeb showed a major snow event and thats what happened followed by a short spell of freezing rain in the evening following day, with temps just at around 0.5c

A strong S/SE wind then it looks S/SW on the archive.

[johncoolj]

yeah ok so slightly milder air is here to stay for the nex week or so what then wil the cold air ever come back this month or will it be the west mild air we get i want the cold north east air we had

[NL]

I urge people to read Glacier Points post in the in depth/Technical model thread.

[tinybill]

yeah ok so slightly milder air is here to stay for the nex week or so what then wil the cold air ever come back this month or will it be the west mild air we get i want the cold north east air we had

well look deep into F1 LAND

there could easily be a another big block start any time after 23 jan

Edited January 10, 2010 by tinybill

[johncoolj]

os so maybe around 25th there could be another big block in store do you think it will cause the same coldness as the last block has or could this one be even stronger and give us colder weather

[grab my graupel]

Evening Folks, will open a new model thread in a few minutes

[Winter Monsoon]

After reading the strat thread and model tech thread i would urge those who thinks the game is over to read those tyhreads and py attention to what the like of GP, CH and Brick f post. If what they say verifies then this is just an interlude which to be honest was being said by those i have mentioned since at least christmas.

You just cannot ignore what the upper atmosphere is doing at the moment, it will and does effect the model output. Gp has already warned the the model performnce is likley to drop over the next few days. There are signs of an SSW and another split vortex. Incidently the vortex has split twice this winter already and isnt it coincidental that when the split occurs we ended up with cold and snowy weather.

Yes its going to be warmer than of late, i for one am not looking forwards to it. If it were upto me we would have this winter weather all winter.

Looking at the end of the ECM run, maybe, just maybe we get a reload and some of my sig will come true.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Winter Monsoon

[Snowyowl9]

i was speaking in general not just john the whole beeb got the weather wrong today not just him geez sorry for any offence caused

GFS has forecasted the light snow today aswell and it still does,and it`s snowing here now more than it has all day.

I only expected light snow or grains.

Back to ECM this is indeed a very cold flow it shows S/SE when surface winds will be E/SE looks bitter that.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

[grab my graupel]

Can we move on please folks - the team will deal with it

A new Model thread below

[Uncle_Barty]

well look deep into F1 LAND

there could easily be a another big block start any time after 23 jan

Doesn't start til March! unless you meant 'FI' of course....

I'm looking at up to 72 hours only for now... further than that is FI. Just to echo the point made above - GP's posts are very handy when looking at the bigger long range picture. My gut feeling is that it's 50/50 for another severe outbreak such as the one we've just had.