East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Hammer]

Major downgrade most forecast only saying 5cm for whole weekend is this true?

No new data yet, so no idea why anyone can say a downgrade. I would say 5cm widely some areas 10cm plus. Jackpot areas 20cms.

[janetmh71]

Temp currently1.8c here and sun is melting andy ice/snow it shines on.

Beginning of the end??

Janet

[nick sussex]

Thanks Nick.

What about the GFS progs of 3/4c air temps over some coastal areas sat night into sun? Total garbage surely?

Well that's just typical of the gfs temp predictions,as well as its precip forecasts. I think it overdoes the effect of sea modification on its temp profiles.

[Coast]

Major downgrade most forecast only saying 5cm for whole weekend is this true?

No, read the previous posts including the precip chart from Nick F

[pinball wizard]

As somebody else said a few pages earlier, once the precip starts showing on the radar over the weekend then expect Flash Notices and the nice Red (Take Action) Notices to become widespread across EA & SE England

From the Meto - This is for Days 3-5 for Eastern Counties

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Bitterly cold and strong easterly winds bringing further significant snowfall, especially during Sunday and early Monday. Lying snow is likely to drift in the strong winds.

Updated: 0219 on Fri 8 Jan 2010

Paul S

Hi Paul, wondered if you could shed any light on the area you think will be affected by the weekend snow event. Interestingly the Met have only warnings for Sussex, Kent - nowt for Suffolk or Essex?!?!

[Ocean Transit]

I see no downgrades on the tv forecasts although the risk factor remains 60% light snow and 30% heavy snow.

Most places in our area will see 12-24 hours of continuous light snow

[pureasthedriven]

Just to clarify I was referring to the MetO severe weather warning - at the current time on their website London and SW

has been reduced from orange to yellow with regards to % chance of severe weather which I think is wrong.

The orange warning was for ice.

[Country Boy]

Lowest here -6. at 8.59am...8 inches of lying snow....NOWCAST : 0.c...snow showers wind light n/e....INTO NEXT WEEK : After Sundays big event the wind looks set to go to a south easterly direction...And the high slips south east..at the end of the week the high sits to the south allowing a flood of milder s/w. winds ito the U.K...Anybody pick up on this yet...so next week looks to be last of this bitterly cold spell

[Ocean Transit]

I say this every year... weather warnings are issued for DISRUPTION and does not always cover areas which will see snow.

Essex/Suffolk has warnings in place for Sat/Sun but not for disruptive snow.

[maidstone weather]

The orange warning was for ice.

indeed. The Flash (orange) warning was valid until midday for Icy roads. The yellow (advisory) is for icy roads today. The Flash Warning (orange) currently in force is for heavy snow.

[FatherOf2]

Snowing again, amazing how I look at it in a matter of fact way now. Since yesterday there have been showers developing to the North of the Dutch/German border in the North Sea, these have fed down in a line towards this area and are still doing so, Nik from near Colchester mentioned the static nature of this source of showers yesterday. In the last 12 hours we have received quite a bit of snow from this stream and I would imagine the Clacton area have got even more judging by the way the line was moving last night. Current depth here is 20cm (am surprised it isn't more), would be interested to know what depths are in Clacton. It looks like we will get pasted Saturday night/ Sunday but wondering if it could be turning to sleet or rain here on the coast.

Air temp -0.8°c -1.8°c

Edited January 8, 2010 by FatherOf2

[nick sussex]

In terms of the heaviest snow for the weekend this currently is more likely towards the far se, draw a line from Essex towards the Isle of Wight. This is the NAE prediction and looking at the bbc forecasters they have gone along with that. It's an upper front so isn't changing conditions at the surface, and is unlikely to be particularly active however there is a question mark over how the interaction between it and some added energy once it crosses the Channel will play out, it might well be a prolonged spell of snow but not neccesarily heavy but add this to very strong winds and it could cause problems with drifting snow.

Edited January 8, 2010 by nick sussex

[Southender]

Nice line of conv showers developed off the Essex coast heading down through my region. Snowing light/mod now before that big blob over F'Stowe makes it's way in.

Edited January 8, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Neilsouth]

In terms of the heaviest snow for the

Are we talking little tiny flakes here or lots of 20p ones , silly question i know

[yamkin]

John Hammond on BBC News just predicted that heavy snow across the South East and London too from Saturday into Sunday, looking like there's agreement now

Sky News weather forecast team headed by Francis Wilson continued with the weekend snow forecast and have not back tracked once. Well done Mr Wilson!

[nick sussex]

Are we talking little tiny flakes here or lots of 20p ones , silly question i know

Yes it was! what am i Mystic Meg! It's not an active front so maybe thats a clue! again though there are some uncertainties regarding what happens to it when it hits the relatively warmer seas of the Channel and southern North Sea. Given all this its likely to weaken as it edges nw hence the most snow will be more likely for the far se. Anyway it's a developing situation.

[Southender]

Sky News weather forecast team headed by Francis Wilson continued with the weekend snow forecast and have not back tracked once. Well done Mr Wilson!

Have to agree with that. Sky show 24hrs of continuous snow for many from around 12pm Sunday, although light for most of the time. Going on the basis of say 0.5cm per hour, that's still 12cm or so of fresh snow. Which I think will be about right.

Edited January 8, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Snowangel-MK]

Another light snow flurry in MK.

Same over this side occasionally during the last hour or so but sometimes you have to look hard to see it,

it's like frozen drizzle, even spotted it when the sun is out - very strange !

Got the front path salted again ready for the weekend snow (I hope), and my visitor has postponed for two weeks (good decision I think!)

Have a lovely weekend everyone

[SuttonStorm]

Are we talking little tiny flakes here or lots of 20p ones , silly question i know

Neil - not really a sill question, but I believe the size of the flake is not actually anything to do with how heavy the ppn rate is, but more with the temperature and humidity levels.

If the air is at or slightly above freezing, and humidity is high, the flakes tend to clump together whilst circulating in the cloud or falling from it, whereas in really low temps, they will fall as very fine flakes (as you quite regularly see in the Alps for example)

Cheers

SS

[pureasthedriven]

In terms of the heaviest snow for the weekend this currently is more likely towards the far se, draw a line from Essex towards the Isle of Wight. This is the NAE prediction and looking at the bbc forecasters they have gone along with that. It's an upper front so isn't changing conditions at the surface, and is unlikely to be particularly active however there is a question mark over how the interaction between it and some added energy once it crosses the Channel will play out, it might well be a prolonged spell of snow but not neccesarily heavy but add this to very strong winds and it could cause problems with drifting snow.

That line from Essex to IoW is likely to cause high level anxiety in some posters, Nick, depending on what part of Essex you start your pen from!

Edited January 8, 2010 by pureasthedriven

[Country Boy]

we have 21cm here at the moment..got a pasting at 10.30 pm last night and again at 6.30 am this morning around 10cm..in total

[thevalley]

Sun's back out again after impressive shower... Grrrr

However, compared to 87, 91 and last years dump, still disappointingly thin on the ground for us here in SE London... Obviously need a direct hit from an easterly to sort us out here.

This cold spell -the snow has been very localised.-Warlingham Biggin Hill has about 7ins whilst Keston West Wickham has 3-4 ins Bromley probable 1.5ins at best which is disappointing. South East London has just been on the edge of the heavier falls but maybe by Tuesday all the SE should have about 6 ins of snow except Central London. The Downs 20 miles from London always do very well from this setup:drinks:

[Downpour]

This cold spell -the snow has been very localised.-Warlingham Biggin Hill has about 7ins whilst Keston West Wickham has 3-4 ins Bromley probable 1.5ins at best which is disappointing. South East London has just been on the edge of the heavier falls but maybe by Tuesday all the SE should have about 6 ins of snow except Central London. The Downs 20 miles from London always do very well from this setup:drinks:

What do you class as central London?

[wee]

Hi guys have just checked the met office and they have given out a flash warning for this afternoon for Brighton and hove for more heavy snow ,is this going to happen does anyone know?

[Southender]

In terms of the heaviest snow for the weekend this currently is more likely towards the far se, draw a line from Essex towards the Isle of Wight. This is the NAE prediction and looking at the bbc forecasters they have gone along with that. It's an upper front so isn't changing conditions at the surface, and is unlikely to be particularly active however there is a question mark over how the interaction between it and some added energy once it crosses the Channel will play out, it might well be a prolonged spell of snow but not neccesarily heavy but add this to very strong winds and it could cause problems with drifting snow.

Haha, what part of Essex!!