Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 17

[Snowplough33]

If thats the case how on a direct NE wind do the showers always miss Edinburgh there is no mountains in the way!! As what happened the last few days

I dont believe that was a true NE. I think it was slightly to the North of NE. If that was exactly NE, then we need something very slightly more East. We missed them too. We refer to winds very generally, not on degrees of bearing, so a few degrees to the wrong side of what we are calling a NE can mean all the showers miss. I could see the showers passing they were so close

[snowy owl]

I've just been catching up on the trends and patterns and Glacier Point gives another really interesting post on the in depth thread:

The end of which reads

Crucially, this pattern coincides with all models indicating a fragment of the PV dropping into western Russia t144-168. If we get a retrogressing pattern, there is a fair probability that the cold Arctic air mass will be advected westwards towards Europe.

So the analysis of the last two days is consistent with an Atlantic attack from the south-west with the cold block remaining in place. The snow threat increases considerably next week but these are likely to be trigger mechanism for height rises to the north to pull west. There may be some erosion at the margins but I would favour the block to largely remain and cold weather to remain entrenched the for at least the north and east of the UK, possibly all parts. Thereafter, the next reload to arrive from the NE ?

Very Very Interesting!

I dont believe that was a true NE. I think it was slightly to the North of NE. If that was exactly NE, then we need something very slightly more East. We missed them too. We refer to winds very generally, not on degrees of bearing, so a few degrees to the wrong side of what we are calling a NE can mean all the showers miss. I could see the showers passing they were so close

The upper winds appear to be moving to East around Midnight - so will that have the correct effect ?

[Norrance]

I dont believe that was a true NE. I think it was slightly to the North of NE. If that was exactly NE, then we need something very slightly more East. We missed them too. We refer to winds very generally, not on degrees of bearing, so a few degrees to the wrong side of what we are calling a NE can mean all the showers miss. I could see the showers passing they were so close

Certainly here the wind has mostly been NNE. When occasionally it has swung round to NE or ENE it has brought showers. Clouding up a bit to the East now in fact.

[Hairy Celt]

There's nothing here to show any ppn of any sort - mind you, we're right on the edge.

[Snowplough33]

The upper winds appear to be moving to East around Midnight - so will that have the correct effect ?

[Guest]

For anyone in Scotland who doesn't have fog/cloud, how about that sunset for two in a row of the most gorgeous cloudless sunsets??? :shok: :)

[Snowplough33]

Oh well the model thread will be happy till the pub run is out..........basically the ice age continues for 2 weeks!!!

Slightly off the subject, but does anyone know if such prolonged ice and snow will have damaging effects on golf courses??

[blitzen]

If only we could rely on these precipitation charts!

[sandstorm2]

Oh well the model thread will be happy till the pub run is out..........basically the ice age continues for 2 weeks!!!

Slightly off the subject, but does anyone know if such prolonged ice and snow will have damaging effects on golf courses??

I wouldn,t think it would affect golf courses, after all look at the courses in America and even Russia that take a beating every year and still recover.

SS2

[Guest]

Oh well the model thread will be happy till the pub run is out..........basically the ice age continues for 2 weeks!!!

Slightly off the subject, but does anyone know if such prolonged ice and snow will have damaging effects on golf courses??

I would imagine that the ice could have some impact in terms of cracking the surface, but I would imagine once thawed and mowed/rolled a few times these cracks will heal up quickly. Grass is wonderful at fixing itself.

[Snowplough33]

I would imagine that the ice could have some impact in terms of cracking the surface, but I would imagine once thawed and mowed/rolled a few times these cracks will heal up quickly. Grass is wonderful at fixing itself.

OK with that in mind............lets keep it going till................3rd April please

[Guest]

If only we could rely on these precipitation charts!

That's the problem with GFS, it spits out precip amounts of 0.01mm per 3 hours and then you get charts like the one you posted.

[LadyPakal]

Re: golf courses - Depends on what is underneath I suspect. Some upheaval may need to be dealt with on soil as it retains moisture more but sand is usually well drained and so may fare much better.

OK with that in mind............lets keep it going till................3rd April please

Gawd! Imagine all the moaning from the 'Spring starts 1st March so I want the weather to switch immediately from cold to warm' brigade...

Edited January 8, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Snowplough33]

Re: golf courses - Depends on what is underneath I suspect. Some upheaval may need to be dealt with on soil as it retains moisture more but sand is usually well drained and so may fare much better.

Its quite evedent the effect its having on roads. Small pot holes are growing at a scarey speed!

[LadyPakal]

Its quite evedent the effect its having on roads. Small pot holes are growing at a scarey speed!

Pavements look like an earthquake has passed under them here - frost throw. I won't go into the roads - sore point in Aberdeen.

[Sunny Leith]

Again, not expecting snow to figure that much for most of Scotland in the next 18 hours, which brings us back to severe frost.

Currently -9c in Aviemore, Glenlivet, Drumalbin and Glasgow, -7c Embra, -6c Prestwick.

Game on again for minus low-teens ... reasonable bet of a few minus mid-teens in a few locations ?

[sunny starry skies]

Its quite evedent the effect its having on roads. Small pot holes are growing at a scarey speed!

Indeed, was on the A9 after New Year and it's really bumpy south of Inverness because of blistering around tar joins I think. Parts of it reminded me of the bump...bump...bump you get crossing the Forth Road bridge - not good! May be a spring/summer of roadworks on that road not the least

sss

[Guest]

Pavements look like an earthquake has passed under them here - frost throw. I won't go into the roads - sore point in Aberdeen.

I saw an unmade road (no tarmac) today which is now impassable probably even to 4x4s. The lumps and bumps were easily 2ft high/deep. I only got round the area by walking over the grass/ditch at the side of the road with ToddlerCatch in the pram

[Snowplough33]

Pavements look like an earthquake has passed under them here - frost throw. I won't go into the roads - sore point in Aberdeen.

Yeh I work in Aberdeen..........roads in Dyce are similar to the roads in Kazakhstan.

[Northernlights]

Was thinking we had coped pretty well with this cold spell on the farm with the advanced warning of bad weather from the experts on here at the begining of December by switching off and draining non essential water , ordering extra feed and putting more bedding straw under cover.However got a phone call from my assistant factor( I am a tenant farmer) this morning asking if we had any damage to report due to the weather as he was very busy responding to lots of steading roofs faliing in. Now every time we go in the sheds to feed the cattle we look up to check the beams and everyone has been told to listen for creeking noises and get out quickly if they hear any. There is a terrific weight of snow on the roofs. A wee snow shower on its way to us off the Firth just now and it is currently -3c.

[Guest]

Again, not expecting snow to figure that much for most of Scotland in the next 18 hours, which brings us back to severe frost.

Currently -9c in Aviemore, Glenlivet, Drumalbin and Glasgow, -7c Embra, -6c Prestwick.

Game on again for minus low-teens ... reasonable bet of a few minus mid-teens in a few locations ?

Bizarrely enough Glasgow Airport TAF for overnight reads as this:

TAF EGPF 081659Z 0818/0918 VRB05KT 0400 FZFG VV/// PROB40 TEMPO

0818/0918 3000 BR FEW006 PROB30 TEMPO 0903/0909 6000 -SHSN

BKN012CB =

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/metartafsearch/both.cgi?choice=egpf&Hours=0&submit.x=10&submit.y=13

The part which reads 0903/0909 6000 -SHSN means a forecast for light snow showers between 3am and 9am tomorrow morning.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now a balmy -5.5C with partial cloud cover to the northeast. NMM still goes for some pretty hefty and persistant snow overnight for east central, pushing west eventually. This is basically from the band to our north pushing south meeting the band to the east over east central and stalling for a few hours before pushing west. Obviously, I'm not going to bet my house on it (I doubt my mum would be too pleased if I did that for a start!) but the NMM is usually very reliable, and very rarely has it been wrong. Just about to check the 12Z NMM now - hope it hasn't changed!

LS

[Guest]

Yeh I work in Aberdeen..........roads in Dyce are similar to the roads in Kazakhstan.

I stumbled across this when I was looking for news stories about road damage:

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/-/1006/838252/-/heh51sz/-/

So we are not the only ones suffering because of weird weather patterns.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Again, not expecting snow to figure that much for most of Scotland in the next 18 hours, which brings us back to severe frost.

Currently -9c in Aviemore, Glenlivet, Drumalbin and Glasgow, -7c Embra, -6c Prestwick.

Game on again for minus low-teens ... reasonable bet of a few minus mid-teens in a few locations ?

Not sure, more likely further north and west as usual but I doubt we'll get much lower than we're at now - already up to -5.1C here.

LS

[Ross B]

CMD - GFS has been hinting at something moving across the country tonight for a few days now.