Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 17

[GraemeB]

Did they have warnings for us??

In the sense we were orange, but are now yellow

[Guest]

Did they have warnings for us??

It was just ice warnings SP33

[Snowplough33]

This still sounds good........

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2010 to Friday 22 Jan 2010:

Cold conditions will persist on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers across northeast England and eastern Scotland, whilst a band of more persistent snow is possible across some western and southwestern areas. It will also be windy for many, accentuating the cold. Little change is expected into next weekend (16/17 Jan) with sleet or snow showers still likely across some northern and eastern districts, whilst longer spells of sleet or snow may occur across southern districts, this perhaps turning to rain in the extreme southwest later. Into the following week the indication is that many eastern parts of the country will remain cold, although with a lot of dry weather. Western areas could well be more unsettled, eventually turning less cold, with some rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1238 on Fri 8 Jan 2010

It was just ice warnings SP33

Still hopeful that late afternoon, we will start to see the band in the middle North sea move east as the HP starts to build over Norway, giving slight east to west push ????

[penicuikblizz]

The METO 6-15day forecast keeps it cold with more snow, more so for NE England and Eastern Scotland milder weather into far southwest and west at end of forecast with Rain,sleet,snow

Does Edinburgh do ok for snow from a ESE wind or do the showers bypass us and directly hit Fife??

[Hiya]

GFS ensembles are improving run by run.

Downgrading the "mild" interlude as it gets closer. Lots of members now delaying the departure of the -5 T850 by 2 days. I think there is a chance that we could get through the mild spell without losing the -5 uppers at all.

[Guest]

Glasgow Airport temp has just dropped from -7C to -8C in thick fog, I wonder if -7C will be the warmest temp of the day there then?? That would make today the 4th coldest maximum since at least Jan 1982 (according to a quick flick through WeatherOnline). Only December 1995 was colder.

I can't see the temp sky rocketing now since it is foggy at the airport, however, if there is cloud moving in later it may warm up towards midnight :lol:

[Big Innes Madori]

Glasgow Airport temp has just dropped from -7C to -8C in thick fog, I wonder if -7C will be the warmest temp of the day there then?? That would make today the 4th coldest maximum since at least Jan 1982 (according to a quick flick through WeatherOnline). Only December 1995 was colder.

I can't see the temp sky rocketing now since it is foggy at the airport, however, if there is cloud moving in later it may warm up towards midnight

Hi Catch,

Would you care to take a stab at what the average temp has been in Scotland during the last 24 hrs

Big Innes

Edited January 8, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[penicuikblizz]

Looking at the GFS precip charts it looks as though we are going to have periods of sleet/snow on and off for most of next week, with hillier areas and inland having snow throughout. How reliable are these charts as Meto seem to have us down for mainly dry until tuesday at the earliest?

[Guest]

Hi Catch,

Would you care to take a stab at what the average temp has been in Scotland during the last 24 hrs

Big Innes

At a rough guess it's been minus baltic point five

Cold enough anyway, it would depend where you are. Altnaharra probably -15C, Glasgow about -9C.

Looking at the GFS precip charts it looks as though we are going to have periods of sleet/snow on and off for most of next week, with hillier areas and inland having snow throughout. How reliable are these charts as Meto seem to have us down for mainly dry until tuesday at the earliest?

If the precip amounts are very low then probably best ignored. GFS likes to spit out precip totals of 0.1mm per 3 hour period (for example) which is just nonsense!!

[Big Innes Madori]

At a rough guess it's been minus baltic point five

Cold enough anyway, it would depend where you are. Altnaharra probably -15C, Glasgow about -9C.

Aye, that's getting on for sitting doon tae pee temps is it no

Big Innes

[Sunny Leith]

We've collected snow from that direction in the past. Its the old swings and roundabout thing. The Lammermuirs are definitely a snow-catcher in that situation. On the other hand an ESE renders Embra effectively inland, being about 50-60 miles away from any flow making landfall around Eyemouth/ Berwick-on-Tweed. So if anything does get through, then we should see probably snow/graupel/grains rather than sleet/rain.

ENE obviously is the usual preference but (for coasties like me) only so long as other conditions are right eg cold uppers and/or a fetch from a frozen Euro landmass (rather than just the middle of the north-sea itself)

If I had to choose for the week ahead, then I'd take ESE to prolong existing local snow-cover and cold, plus the outside chance of a few wintry showers... as against an ENE that night promise more snow but could be the wrong side of marginal on the coast at various times.

At Penicuik base-camp you'd do well regardless !

The METO 6-15day forecast keeps it cold with more snow, more so for NE England and Eastern Scotland milder weather into far southwest and west at end of forecast with Rain,sleet,snow

Does Edinburgh do ok for snow from a ESE wind or do the showers bypass us and directly hit Fife??

Would disregard these at a detailed level PB. Anything computer generated like that from days out ... isn't really a good indicator for what will happen nearer the time in a given area.

Radar/nowcasting will be the best bet as usual, day by day, hour by hour.

Looking at the GFS precip charts it looks as though we are going to have periods of sleet/snow on and off for most of next week, with hillier areas and inland having snow throughout. How reliable are these charts as Meto seem to have us down for mainly dry until tuesday at the earliest?

Edited January 8, 2010 by by-tor

[Polar Gael]

The story speaks for itself.

What the hell has this country been reduced to?

http://www.royalcaledoniancurlingclub.org/nlstory.cfm?ID=36440&NLID=40830

Utterly and totally pathetic.

Gutted.

:) :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash:

Edited January 8, 2010 by Polar Gael

[Sunny Leith]

ABSURD PG, UTTERLY UTTERLY ABSURD

I had a bad bad feeling that Health&Safety would intervene ... I shouldn't be surprised. NANNY STATE.

They might as well come out and say its NEVER going to be held again, since H&S will never be satisfied

The story speaks for itself.

What the hell has this country been reduced to?

http://www.royalcale...6440&NLID=40830

Utterly and totally pathetic.

Gutted.

:oops: :good: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash:

Edited January 8, 2010 by by-tor

[penicuikblizz]

We've collected snow from that direction in the past. Its the old swings and roundabout thing. The Lammermuirs are definitely a snow-catcher in that situation. On the other hand an ESE renders Embra effectively inland, being about 50-60 miles away from any flow making landfall around Eyemouth/ Berwick-on-Tweed. So if anything does get through, then we should see probably snow/graupel/grains rather than sleet/rain.

ENE obviously is the usual preference but (for coasties like me) only so long as other conditions are right eg cold uppers and/or a fetch from a frozen Euro landmass (rather than just the middle of the north-sea itself)

If I had to choose for the week ahead, then I'd take ESE to prolong existing local snow-cover and cold, plus the outside chance of a few wintry showers... as against an ENE that night promise more snow but could be the wrong side of marginal on the coast at various times.

At Penicuik base-camp you'd do well regardless !

What about the snow the GFS is forecasting for tonight???

Would disregard these at a detailed level PB. Anything computer generated like that from days out ... isn't really a good indicator for what will happen nearer the time in a given area.

Radar/nowcasting will be the best bet as usual, day by day, hour by hour.

[Mondy]

:wacko:

That was easily the coldest shift I've ever worked in today. Still -8c at the moment, so no idea what it was first thing when out and about.. -12c maybe

[Polar Gael]

ABSURD PG, UTTERLY UTTERLY ABSURD :wacko:

I had a bad bad feeling that Health&Safety would intervene ... I shouldn't be surprised. NANNY STATE.

They might as well come out and say its NEVER going to be held again, since H&S will never be satisfied

Right now, am feeling a combination of gutted and pure rage. You wait 31 years for the weather to co-operate and then some penpusher kyboshes one of the greatest Scottish sporting occasions that can be had?

It's a joke.

My god, when the press get hold of this, they'll have a field day.

[Mondy]

Health and Safety officialdom ruins everything nowadays

[Birkhill saints]

KEEP THIS THREAD ON ALL YEAR KEEP THIS THREAD ON ALL YEAR KEEP THIS THREAD ON ALL YEAR KEEP THIS THRE.

Shame about the curling sad really.

Was at piperdam loch this morning with my we lad, and it was looking very arctic with the frozen loch with a couple of inches of snow on and footprints on the snow where the water is(not us).This morning the sidlaw hills around here were an amazing bright pink colour at sunrise absolutely majical site,i got some photos and will post them soon.

Keep this thread all year keep this thread all year keep this thread all year keep this thread all year keep this thre

[Sunny Leith]

FAO PB: Re: What about the snow the GFS is forecasting for tonight???

Personally I wouldn't bet the mortgage on anything that GFS or any other "broad brush" model says about snow in location X at time Y.

Even the metotoffice would be a better bet for the next 12 hours on that front (and they don't convince me much either).

Best bet of all of course will be the assembled views on here as the day goes on, and with a lot of radar/skywatching/nowcasting as usual !

[GraemeB]

What will happen to those showers coming off Denmark as they hit the front that's rolling off the NS into the NE of England ?

[Guest]

Right now, am feeling a combination of gutted and pure rage. You wait 31 years for the weather to co-operate and then some penpusher kyboshes one of the greatest Scottish sporting occasions that can be had?

It's a joke.

My god, when the press get hold of this, they'll have a field day.

What a load of pish. I just hope people turn up anyway for an unofficial version and two big fat fingers to the authorities!!

Lowland outdoor curling goes ahead tomorrow with no hope of H&S intervention :)

[Sunny Leith]

Right now, am feeling a combination of gutted and pure rage. You wait 31 years for the weather to co-operate and then some penpusher kyboshes one of the greatest Scottish sporting occasions that can be had?

It's a joke.

My god, when the press get hold of this, they'll have a field day.

Was the ice at the required thickness ? It couldn't have been more than 1 or 2 mights frost away even if it wasn't quite there yet. Doesn't seem like that was the issue, otherwise they would have just said that the ice wasn't thick enough - at least not yet. Thats not what they said though...

Quote: "not proved possible to address all health and safety concerns and receive the full backing of the Emergency Services within the timescales involved."

Eh ? I give up !!!

[Polar Gael]

What a load of pish. I just hope people turn up anyway for an unofficial version and two big fat fingers to the authorities!!

Lowland outdoor curling goes ahead tomorrow with no hope of H&S intervention :)

Catch, I suspect that may well happen. The ice is fine. And the press have been alerted.

Good stuff re the lowland curling. Terrific to hear that - photos please!

It's not over yet.

[LadyPakal]

Was the ice at the required thickness ? It couldn't have been more than 1 or 2 mights frost away even if it wasn't quite there yet. Doesn't seem like that was the issue, otherwise they would have just said that the ice wasn't thick enough - at least not yet. Thats not what they said though...

Quote: "not proved possible to address all health and safety concerns and receive the full backing of the Emergency Services within the timescales involved."

Eh ? I give up !!!

I think the more important part was this (bold mine):

'Without achieving this it would be impossible to gain the necessary insurance to hold the event.'

In this 'sue culture' we have imported from the US, imagine the claims from some of the public if they had got their feet a bit wet.

Edited January 8, 2010 by LadyPakal

[Snowplough33]

FAO PB: Re: What about the snow the GFS is forecasting for tonight???

Personally I wouldn't bet the mortgage on anything that GFS or any other "broad brush" model says about snow in location X at time Y.

Even the metotoffice would be a better bet for the next 12 hours on that front (and they don't convince me much either).

Best bet of all of course will be the assembled views on here as the day goes on, and with a lot of radar/skywatching/nowcasting as usual !

If none of the forecasts are to be believed, then why are they all so far off the mark? Or is it case that they can general overview of temps and say wind direction, then we have to apply local rules. The most obvious is North winds and snow down the east of Scotland. Never happens. I have almost never seem snow showers make it to Dundee from the North. Then you have west winds and they say showers down the west coast, but these showers will almost always make it through the central belt because no mountains