Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 17

[Argyllcraig]

GFS is looking interesting for the end of next week... seems its still playing with the idea of the atlantic trying to get in but running against our block of cold, this would be great if we can get a front to stall in the west with cold cutting into it. Guess it all depends where our big high moves to.

That's exactly the vision I have in my head. Have seen that a few times recently on the drive over to Port Glasgow, it is a pretty sight

Any news on the trains? Or are you off today?

Im off for a few days now thankfully.... its been a nightmare this last week, there was discussions last night apparently between scotrail and network rail about closing stations. Airdire, high st and belgrove in particular on the north side are suffering with the frost forcing the platforms up.. Airdire has ruts that have raised up 6-12 inches in places.

The tunnels are pretty bad too with icicles of 6feet!! Dalreoch tunnels is like santas grotto as the whole entrance is shrouded in ice, looks amazing as you can just fit a train in it.

[Guest]

For anyone asking about the possibilty of snow tonight the NMM is showing a distinct possibility of some excited radar watchers in central eastern areas, right the way through to my area

Mostly on the light side further west, but some possibilities further east for moderate snow. GFS 06z also picks on up on this, so all eyes to radar from later afternoon into the evening :)

Edited January 8, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Sunny Leith]

With a likely change coming up over the next couple of days (but still cold though) ... I'm really going to miss this past week of the cold spell, its been by far the best week here in Embra/Leith. Powdery snow last weekend, since then blue skies, hard frost, no melt on roofs, trees or pavements. No slush or mush. Just cold and frost, a few flakes about and lying snow.

I suspect that the weekend will see the start of some transition to a bit of mushing and a reversion to freeze/thaw in these parts (for the immediate east-coast anyway). But it doesn't look anywhere near warm enough in the next 7 days to make all it go away - 23 days worth of ever-coldening surface temperatures will help out a lot there. But based on the likely models/synoptics (and I know they do still vary...) I think the cold and snow as we see it today, will degrade a bit for many on the coastal margins ... cloudier, less cold, as much slush and ice on the pavements as anything. Bottom line though - the cold spell itself will keep going - and many folk inland/higher up probably may not even notice any significant difference to be honest.

[Guest]

Im off for a few days now thankfully.... its been a nightmare this last week, there was discussions last night apparently between scotrail and network rail about closing stations. Airdire, high st and belgrove in particular on the north side are suffering with the frost forcing the platforms up.. Airdire has ruts that have raised up 6-12 inches in places.

The tunnels are pretty bad too with icicles of 6feet!! Dalreoch tunnels is like santas grotto as the whole entrance is shrouded in ice, looks amazing as you can just fit a train in it.

The ground damage is quite incredible, I can't remember ever seeing anything like it. If this cold continues I would not be surprised to see some severe and long term damage to our transport infrastructure. I wouldn't fancy your job at the moment as there must be a huge risk of large chunks of masonry falling off bridges onto the line from the frost damage. I suppose you have systems in place for taking care not to run over anything like that, must still be a little bit more disconcerting than normal driving hundreds of tonnes of metal with the chance of obstacles on the line

[blitzen]

For anyone asking about the possibilty of snow tonight the NMM is showing a distinct possibility of some excited radar watchers in central eastern areas, right the way through to my area

Mostly on the light side further west, but some possibilities further east for moderate snow. GFS 06z also picks on up on this, so all eyes to radar from later afternoon into the evening :) :)

That's a bit more encouraging then! I hate this dead flat calm weather. I see the 06z has back tracked a bit from the overnight 00zs in that it doesn't introduce the breakdown on the scale that the 00z did. The fact that the polar vortex is due to split again and AO to remain negative can only bode well for the future as far as Scotland is concerned anyway. Probably a nowcasting job for us I should think with the models remaining at odds!

[Cheggers]

Morning all, -13 when I finally left home this morning. Been up all night as all 34 house alarms have been chirping away to each other since 5:30pm yesterday, and a call to security firm this morning was met with "How am I supposed to warm the weather up!!!" And that will be £98 to disconnect it till it warms up.

I am one my 4th coffee since 9 and slowly losing the plot.

Any way, radar and lampost watching tonight if I can stay awake.

[Highland Snow]

Temp -14.1C last night, so record of 29th December still stands. Had a light dusting of snow some time overnight.

[Snowplough33]

For anyone asking about the possibilty of snow tonight the NMM is showing a distinct possibility of some excited radar watchers in central eastern areas, right the way through to my area

Mostly on the light side further west, but some possibilities further east for moderate snow. GFS 06z also picks on up on this, so all eyes to radar from later afternoon into the evening

I was just about to post actually. Both the 00 run and the 06 run GSF are going for this.

If you look at the GSF wind / streams then you can clearly see the east wind moves across the N sea with NW wind ahead of it being pushed back. I assume this wind shift is either side of the showers. The MO radar is picking up the development of something that basically follows the exact shape of the precip chart being offered by GSF.

http://www.metoffice...ather/uk/radar/

Interestingly UKMO has it here too on there 00 run

What I find strange is why the Beeb are not showing anything at all on this ??? Sorry to ramble on, but here's hoping for some showers!!

Edited January 8, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Guest]

That's a bit more encouraging then! I hate this dead flat calm weather. I see the 06z has back tracked a bit from the overnight 00zs in that it doesn't introduce the breakdown on the scale that the 00z did. The fact that the polar vortex is due to split again and AO to remain negative can only bode well for the future as far as Scotland is concerned anyway. Probably a nowcasting job for us I should think with the models remaining at odds!

Even if we do get mild weather for a spell, that doesn't mean to say that it will suddenly become spring and winter has gone until next year. It is only the 7th January so even a mild month would leave us most of February to get some more cold weather. I think if we're all honest about it the snowcover is fantastic but it is falling snow which we all crave and love. Actual snowcover is all very well, but unless you are out in the countryside the snow gets dirty very quickly, or slushy with grit, and that isn't quite the same. I couldn't put my hand on my heart and honestly say that I would not swap this snowcover for a month of mild weather and then a huge 24 hour snowstorm in February. I would take the mild weather and 24 hours of snow every time

What I find strange is why the Beeb are not showing anything at all on this ??? Sorry to ramble on, but here's hoping for some showers!!

The BBC Scotland online forecast shows some snow into east central and more snow into the borders later on tonight and into tomorrow, but nothing making it past Livingstone.

Main BBC online forecast not showing much.

The lunchtime forecast will be interesting then, to see if they have picked up on this.

Edited January 8, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Argyllcraig]

The ground damage is quite incredible, I can't remember ever seeing anything like it. If this cold continues I would not be surprised to see some severe and long term damage to our transport infrastructure. I wouldn't fancy your job at the moment as there must be a huge risk of large chunks of masonry falling off bridges onto the line from the frost damage. I suppose you have systems in place for taking care not to run over anything like that, must still be a little bit more disconcerting than normal driving hundreds of tonnes of metal with the chance of obstacles on the line

The best thing ive heard of on the line so far:

When the first heavyish fall happened in the west one of the first drivers out in the morning had to stop at blantyre and made an announcement on the train for the ticket chappy to come to the driving cab. On getting there he asked what the problem was and the driver simply pointed out the cab window and said 'you are gonna have to help me clear this'...

In front of them stood a 6 foot snowman someone had built on the track in the night... its been quite the talk of the depot this last week and u can still c its foundations up at blantyre hehe.

[blitzen]

What I find strange is why the Beeb are not showing anything at all on this ??? Sorry to ramble on, but here's hoping for some showers!!

Those precipitation charts certainly look encouraging SP33! As I was saying in an earlier post, I think it will have to be a case of radar watching for us for the time being. I do feel that it has been a while since we have picked up anything decent precipitation-wise, (last Saturday?) indeed, the central belt hasn't faired so well snow-depth-wise as many other areas, and that includes England, who have faired much better!

[LadyPakal]

You can see where it is coming from here: http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/LOC/LOC_20100108_0900.html

[Polar Gael]

Morning all. Recorded a low of -9.2°C overnight and well foggy on the south side of the Weeg this morning. Currently -6.6°C and no sign of the fog lifting. Have to say that while the fog is all very atmospheric, etc, I preferred the beautiful, crisp sunny days we had been having. Yet another ice day coming up in this exceptional spell.

I see there's the usual stushie going on in the model thread this morning over a breakdown from mid-week. :lol:

Not wishing to tempt fate and all that, but as muggins and others have mentioned before, the synoptics this winter are reminiscent of the classic winters of the past and if my ageing brain remembers correctly, it usually took a few attempts by the Atlantic to shift a persistent cold block like the one we have - usually with major snowfests as the mild and cold air battled it out over the British Isles. Given the snow cover we have in most of Scotland and the length of time the cold pool has been with us, think it's a fairly safe bet to say that we'll be the last place to warm up.

Just so long as we get our Grand Match first... :lol:

GP, John Holmes and other wise weatherheads have indicated their thoughts and do not see the cold air shifting in the short term. I'll go with that this morning.

Hope everyone is staying safe and warm.

[blitzen]

You can see where it is coming from here: http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/LOC/LOC_20100108_0900.html

Morning Lady P.

Yes, that is a good shot. Some pretty good Sat. viewing later on I should think.

[Sunny Leith]

Have to agree with you PG.

Looking at the general model thread, its interesting to see what some people consider to be a "breakdown".

Like most of us, I only look for some general medium-term trends from the models... currently they indicate some move away from the current almost "perfect cold" in these parts ... and to some increase in temperatures that might revert us to just "cold" and raw (with a bit of slushing/freeze thaw) ... But I just don't see any atlantic washout coming our way north of the border.

Obviously "breakdown" must be a subjective term as I still expect city-wide to be seeing some frost (OK much less severe) and some snow kicking about on the ground (OK probably in much poorer condition admittedly) in a weeks time. The extent of cold-inertia at ground level in these parts must be significant, so that even what might usually be a slight-frost under clear skies next week ... could end up as a moderate one eg -4c rather than -1c.

I just can't see a "breakdown" in the models over the next 7-10 days that will make a significant impact country-wide in our existing ice and snow. I'm sure I'm not the only one ! Models will change of course but right now I don't see it...

Morning all. Recorded a low of -9.2°C overnight and well foggy on the south side of the Weeg this morning. Currently -6.6°C and no sign of the fog lifting. Have to say that while the fog is all very atmospheric, etc, I preferred the beautiful, crisp sunny days we had been having. Yet another ice day coming up in this exceptional spell.

I see there's the usual stushie going on in the model thread this morning over a breakdown from mid-week.

Not wishing to tempt fate and all that, but as muggins and others have mentioned before, the synoptics this winter are reminiscent of the classic winters of the past and if my ageing brain remembers correctly, it usually took a few attempts by the Atlantic to shift a persistent cold block like the one we have - usually with major snowfests as the mild and cold air battled it out over the British Isles. Given the snow cover we have in most of Scotland and the length of time the cold pool has been with us, think it's a fairly safe bet to say that we'll be the last place to warm up.

Just so long as we get our Grand Match first...

GP, John Holmes and other wise weatherheads have indicated their thoughts and do not see the cold air shifting in the short term. I'll go with that this morning.

Hope everyone is staying safe and warm.

Edited January 8, 2010 by by-tor

[dinger]

Morning everyone. Thought I would post a summation from GP in the Technical thread regarding the continuation of the cold spell for those worried that things may be about to come to an end.

"So the analysis of the last two days is consistent with an Atlantic attack from the south-west with the cold block remaining in place. The snow threat increases considerably next week but these are likely to be trigger mechanism for height rises to the north to pull west. There may be some erosion at the margins but I would favour the block to largely remain and cold weather to remain entrenched the for at least the north and east of the UK, possibly all parts. Thereafter, the next reload to arrive from the NE ?"

He's been pretty much spot on all winter and with a continuation of the NAO and AO remaining firmly negative I have to agree that we are set to remain in the cold for some time to come

[sandstorm2]

Have just been on the Royal Caledonia Curling site and reading between the lines ther seems to be quite a bit of doubt as to whether the grand match will take place. There is snow on both piper dam and Loch Leven and only 3 or 4 inches of ice. Also did not know that the Lake of Menteith had been removed from the venue list a number of years ago due to a number of reasons. Despite this they are looking at the possibility of holding it at Lake of Menteith.

SS2

[Polar Gael]

Have just been on the Royal Caledonia Curling site and reading between the lines ther seems to be quite a bit of doubt as to whether the grand match will take place. There is snow on both piper dam and Loch Leven and only 3 or 4 inches of ice. Also did not know that the Lake of Menteith had been removed from the venue list a number of years ago due to a number of reasons. Despite this they are looking at the possibility of holding it at Lake of Menteith.

SS2

Fear not: the LoM had been removed but the RCCC had a meeting earlier in the week to see if these "reasons" could be addressed and sorted.

I think the PR masterstroke by the Port of Menteith Curling Club of clearing a rink on the ice and inviting the Beeb et al to come and film/photograph them playing may have encouraged the RCCC to get its finger out its backside reconsider its decision to remove the LoM and get organising the Grand Match.

There was a meeting with the police (and presumably H&S) earlier in the week and this posting is a big hint that it could get the go ahead:

http://www.royalcaledoniancurlingclub.org/nlstory.cfm?ID=36428&NLID=40830

D-day is today. Likely after lunchtime. Monday or Tuesday looking like the favourites - unless we get another dumping of snow.

Fingers (and everything) crossed!

Edited January 8, 2010 by Polar Gael

[Sunny Leith]

So Scotland ... the first to get into the cold ... and probably to be the place that will hang onto it longest

BBC UK News will have to go back to reporting ... well, actual News ... once the cold retreats back to these parts.

Edit: the most pathetic thing I saw this morning on TV was a BBC "live report" from a Portsmouth side-street. The reporter spent 2 minutes saying how difficult it was for cars and pedestrians, then getting the camera to focus on how hard and slippy the ice was on the street.

We could have run that report from any number of Scottish streets 3 weeks ago. God, I'll be glad when its over down there....

Morning everyone. Thought I would post a summation from GP in the Technical thread regarding the continuation of the cold spell for those worried that things may be about to come to an end.

"So the analysis of the last two days is consistent with an Atlantic attack from the south-west with the cold block remaining in place. The snow threat increases considerably next week but these are likely to be trigger mechanism for height rises to the north to pull west. There may be some erosion at the margins but I would favour the block to largely remain and cold weather to remain entrenched the for at least the north and east of the UK, possibly all parts. Thereafter, the next reload to arrive from the NE ?"

He's been pretty much spot on all winter and with a continuation of the NAO and AO remaining firmly negative I have to agree that we are set to remain in the cold for some time to come

Edited January 8, 2010 by by-tor

[Kerwin]

You can see where it is coming from here: http://www.knmi.nl/data/satrep/archive/KNMI/LOC/LOC_20100108_0900.html

Yes, that precip should start to get pushed west by the ULL depression coming out of Denmark shown on the satrep page. :-)

[Polar Gael]

Have to agree with you PG.

I just can't see a "breakdown" in the models over the next 7-10 days that will make a significant impact country-wide in our existing ice and snow. I'm sure I'm not the only one ! Models will change of course but right now I don't see it...

Perhaps we should come up with a new name for this type of breakdown: the McBreakdown - a breakdown, except for weatherheids in Scotland who have their own weather.

[Argyllcraig]

Morning everyone. Thought I would post a summation from GP in the Technical thread regarding the continuation of the cold spell for those worried that things may be about to come to an end.

"So the analysis of the last two days is consistent with an Atlantic attack from the south-west with the cold block remaining in place. The snow threat increases considerably next week but these are likely to be trigger mechanism for height rises to the north to pull west. There may be some erosion at the margins but I would favour the block to largely remain and cold weather to remain entrenched the for at least the north and east of the UK, possibly all parts. Thereafter, the next reload to arrive from the NE ?"

He's been pretty much spot on all winter and with a continuation of the NAO and AO remaining firmly negative I have to agree that we are set to remain in the cold for some time to come

Its the erosion at the margins im hoping for out here in the west, like i said in an earlier post... if the high is positioned just right then we could possibly get a front stall in the west and hopefully provide the snow we have been missing out on.

As an avid skier this would also boost our western resorts that still need more snow to fill the gaps in.

[Polar Gael]

Neat wee article about how Altnaharra is getting on with it despite spending the past month in the deep freeze.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8447945.stm

Then again, I guess they're pretty used to this sort of thing!

[GraemeB]

meto downgraded warnings for us....

[Snowplough33]

meto downgraded warnings for us....

Did they have warnings for us??