Cold Spell Discussion

[jethro]

Morning peeps, the cold spell continues in the SW, had another 5-6inches over night, just started snowing again now, temp -0.5.

[ScotchEgg78]

Been lurking for a while recently, enjoyed the will it wont it both short and long term.

But for me the BIGGEST stand out issue this year are the official weather services and the BBC and Met office.

There are people on here talking about the risk of the low bringing snow to the midlands tuesday night and wed.

However even yesterday the met office front page does not even have a Be Aware warning ! This is not acceptable is it?

If there are people on here talking about it and there is a risk of snow then why do the met office not treat warnings in the same vein?

It seems they dont want to risk getting it wrong, and treat warnings like forcasts instead of a lose warning of snow as it should be.

Using this site for weather forcasts from now on alone

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Sub-zero and snowing lightly here this morning. Very lightly, but giving a dusting to the roofs and pavements again.

Now reached the 28th consecutive day with lying snow, and still have complete cover in the garden. Some of the fields, as I drive to work, are showing a bit of green though, but I guess that's temporarily been brought to a halt.

[Tucco]

Sub-zero and snowing lightly here this morning. Very lightly, but giving a dusting to the roofs and pavements again.

Now reached the 28th consecutive day with lying snow, and still have complete cover in the garden. Some of the fields, as I drive to work, are showing a bit of green though, but I guess that's temporarily been brought to a halt.

Looks like your snow cover has just got to last over the weekend to survive until the next cold spell.

What are the road conditions like in the Eden Valley?

mark

[Terminal Moraine]

Yesterday was the 10th 'Ice Day' this month here. The last time January managed 10 ice days was in 1996 and the way today is shaping up we could be in for an 11th which would equal 1987.

If the cold returns next week, as some models are suggesting it might, we could even be in with a shout of rivalling 1979 which had 13.

Not in the same league as February 1986 though which had 26.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The A and B roads are ok, although the B road from Appleby to Tebay, which goes over Orton Scar has ridges of frozen slush on them which really send you sliding if you hit them. Of course, this is only a danger when milk tankers are coming the other way, because as everyone knows, milk tankers are the most important vehicles on the road and mustn't ever be delyaed by such things as slowing down or pulling over slightly.

The road from Asby is still snow covered in places, with other places having the ridges of frozen slush, but this morning, there was the added problem of black ice on everything. We did get a delivery of grit from the county council yesterday, delivered by a bolting horse. The road from Murton, where my parents are is passable, but they had another Helm on Monday and with 5ft drifts at the side, it wouldn't take much for it to shut again.

I hear the A66 is still shut, which I find amazing! I imagine the roads up your way are worse though, as you had much more snow?

Yesterday was the 10th 'Ice Day' this month here. The last time January managed 10 ice days was in 1996 and the way today is shaping up we could be in for an 11th which would equal 1987.

If the cold returns next week, as some models are suggesting it might, we could even be in with a shout of rivalling 1979 which had 13.

Not in the same league as February 1986 though which had 26.

I've only managed 5 ice days this month, although all but one of the other maximums has been below 2º. My average daily maximum is currently running at -0.5º and my average daily minimum is currently at -7.5º giving me a mean temp so far this month of -4.0º.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Terminal Moraine]

I've only managed 5 ice days this month, although all but one of the other maximums has been below 2º. My average daily maximum is currently running at -0.5º and my average daily minimum is currently at -7.5º giving me a mean temp so far this month of -4.0º.

Equivalent figures here are mean max' -0.6c and mean min' -3.4c. A mean min' in England of -7.5c is pretty damn low by anyone's standards.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Terminal Moraine

[CLH the red dragon]

More should be made in the media in relation to this Met Office thing. I wonder if he'll claim next summer being the wettest on the basis of April. Or coldest on the basis of October?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'm still struggling to believe that what was quoted wasn't taken completely out of context.

A mean min' in England of -7.5c is pretty damn low by anyone's standards.

I'm quite pleased with it, even for here, particularly as some nights haven't even dipped below freezing. For the record, my minimums so far this year are:

January 1st -7.4º

January 2nd -9.6º

January 3rd -8.8º

January 4th -12.2º

January 5th -3.0º

January 6th -7.5º

January 7th -13.8º

January 8th -14.8º

January 9th -12.4º

January 10th -1.3º

January 11th +0.8º

January 12th +0.2º

My figures do run from mindnight to midnight (not 9am to 9am) but each low has been approximately 24hrs from the previous one, so they're a true reflection.

[Timmytour]

Been lurking for a while recently, enjoyed the will it wont it both short and long term.

But for me the BIGGEST stand out issue this year are the official weather services and the BBC and Met office.

There are people on here talking about the risk of the low bringing snow to the midlands tuesday night and wed.

However even yesterday the met office front page does not even have a Be Aware warning ! This is not acceptable is it?

If there are people on here talking about it and there is a risk of snow then why do the met office not treat warnings in the same vein?

It seems they dont want to risk getting it wrong, and treat warnings like forcasts instead of a lose warning of snow as it should be.

Using this site for weather forcasts from now on alone

i feel that a fortune's been spent on all the models that they now use and so they really feel obliged to use them...which means sometimes their forecasts are varying almost by the hour! And no doubt the models serve a use but perhaps the biggest thing they show is how variable our weather can be and how susceptible to any kind of "butterfly effect". What's missing is the old "gut feel" combined with experience. One forecast made and maintained. Yes it could easly go wrong and might only have a 50/50 success rate. The trouble is now that eash event seems to get about five different forecasts and if one of them is right, that only feels like a 20% success rate!

[trickydicky]

I'm not one for random Met Office bashing like some on here but it is quite astonishing how wrong they have got this winter, even if from now on in it was mild all the way. There were quite obviously some pretty clear signs this autumn (that were picked up by GP in particular as well as a few others) that this winter had the potential to be cold. The Met Office must have seen these but, for whatever reason, decided to overlook them and plump for the form horse... mild. Which is poor really, any old noggin could have gone "oh it will be mild this winter because we live in Britain and we have a martime climate" and so on and so forth. I reckon they chickened out, influenced by their epic failure last summer and by the prevailing winters of the last 20 years. Judging by some of their warnings and forecasts this year they are a bit out of practice when it comes to the cold weather. Which isnt suprising really, most of the old gadgers that were around when we used to get this sort of weather fairly regularly will probably be long retired now.

Edited January 13, 2010 by trickydicky

[Osbourne One-Nil]

any old noggin

She's not going to like that.

[Iceni]

I'm not one for random Met Office bashing like some on here but it is quite astonishing how wrong they have got this winter, even if from now on in it was mild all the way. There were quite obviously some pretty clear signs this autumn (that were picked up by GP in particular as well as a few others) that this winter had the potential to be cold. The Met Office must have seen these but, for whatever reason, decided to overlook them and plump for the form horse... mild. Which is poor really, any old noggin could have gone "oh it will be mild this winter because we live in Britain and we have a martime climate" and so on and so forth. I reckon they chickened out, influenced by their epic failure last summer and by the prevailing winters of the last 20 years. Judging by some of their warnings and forecasts this year they are a bit out of practice when it comes to the cold weather. Which isnt suprising really, most of the old gadgers that were around when we used to get this sort of weather fairly regularly will probably be long retired now.

Here's my take on the reasons for their inadequate winter forecast:

1) Publicly-funded (but under threat of being privatized so, like the BBC, will not bite the hand that's feeding it).

2) Involved in preparations for Copenhagen world summit — important not just from a world climate pov, but a certain PM's career and future carbon taxation plans — an 'off message' i.e. harsh winter LR forecast wouldn't have endeared the MetO to their pay masters last autumn.

3) El Nino event which until now, the received wisdom has said means 'wet and mild' for the UK.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Iceni

[Tucco]

The A and B roads are ok, although the B road from Appleby to Tebay, which goes over Orton Scar has ridges of frozen slush on them which really send you sliding if you hit them. Of course, this is only a danger when milk tankers are coming the other way, because as everyone knows, milk tankers are the most important vehicles on the road and mustn't ever be delyaed by such things as slowing down or pulling over slightly.

The road from Asby is still snow covered in places, with other places having the ridges of frozen slush, but this morning, there was the added problem of black ice on everything. We did get a delivery of grit from the county council yesterday, delivered by a bolting horse. The road from Murton, where my parents are is passable, but they had another Helm on Monday and with 5ft drifts at the side, it wouldn't take much for it to shut again.

I hear the A66 is still shut, which I find amazing! I imagine the roads up your way are worse though, as you had much more snow?

I've only managed 5 ice days this month, although all but one of the other maximums has been below 2º. My average daily maximum is currently running at -0.5º and my average daily minimum is currently at -7.5º giving me a mean temp so far this month of -4.0º.

A66 is shut mainly because of the appauling management of the road by Ameymouchel. There was more snow in the winter in Jan/Feb 1996 the road was only closed for a couple of days.

I real affort was made to keep the road open by the local crews from Kirkby Stephen and Bowes. Ameymouchel should be ashamed in their pathetic response.

A factor must be the amount of grit the A66 would take to keep it open due to blowing snow and ice. When its closed the can save grit.

If the cold weather does return next week, road conditions across the country could be dire.

Mark

Edited January 13, 2010 by Tucco

[Andy Bown]

The current mean for Warminster this month is -2.75c!!

Average max = 0.45c (including 4 ice days)

Average min = -3.20c

[Thundery wintry showers]

That was heavily pushed and promoted and encouraged in the 1970s by the government and is why homes are insulated to the extent that they now are.

Everything possible was insulated against the coming ice-age! It was at that time that the cavity wall insulation industry took off. I did canvassing for a friend who set up a cavity wall insulation business.

But the article clearly implies that while the UK may have improved its insulation of homes in the 1970s, many of our continental neighbours do it significantly better, indicating room for improvement.

[Methuselah]

Get ready for a new thread, folks???

And. a linky: