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Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 16


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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Our Denmark feature has an "eye" :girl_devil: - you can see it well on the latest hi-res taken 20 mins ago.

Embra airport just went off a cliff from -2c to -6c in 1 hour. Ironically same time last night it went from -4c to 1c in an hour just ahaed of the snow. So tonight I'll be temperature gazing central Scotland-wide and leave the radar/cloud gazing to you lads and lassies. I'm going blind and mad trying to make landfall projections this last 3 weeks :cold:

Latest EDI temps are -7 / DP -9c

post-8552-12627996596252_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Queensferry
  • Location: South Queensferry

All

After my dramatic plea for help earlier I thought I would let you know my girlfiend made it from Edinburgh to Aberdeen safely (she sounded in a state of near shock once her journey was over right enough). Attacked by snow flurries en route but nothing more than that.

Again thanks for everyone's (much required) help : this is a proper Scottish community on here !!!

Cheers

Pol

PS : Hamilton at 1615 was -2 , one drive along the MEight later and -8 at Kirkliston. Radio Scotland insisting on snow showers for the East again tonight not that I can see that from (my limited knowledge of) the current output

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Our Denmark feature has an "eye" :drinks: - you can see it well on the latest hi-res taken 20 mins ago.

I think this system might turn out to be just a bit too far south Mondy, no? Damn it!!

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

-7c here, slightly colder than the same time last night (i think) but we shouldn't get warmed up by the snow flurries this time. Expecting -14c here tonight, the river is frozen solid here :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl

River Clyde in Glasgow city centre was freezing over when I crossed it this morning. Quite big patches of ice forming for a fair distance from the banks outwards. Couldn't get a picture as I was on a train into Central station.I'll plump for -11 for Glasgow tonight. :whistling:

Edited by Glaswegianblizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert
A SENIOR councillor has sparked fury by telling Edinburgh residents to stop moaning and clear their frozen pavements themselves.

Norman Work, SNP councillor for Almond and deputy health leader on the council, said it was "no time for laziness" and residents should "stop expecting other people to do the work" – unless they are "90 years old".

:lol:

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/topstories/Clearing-city39s-pavements-39not-job.5958710.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

Well said Mr Work, people need to get a grip!

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Posted
  • Location: Ayr ,scotland nearly 5m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: COLD AND SNOWY
  • Location: Ayr ,scotland nearly 5m a.s.l

-7c here, slightly colder than the same time last night (i think) but we shouldn't get warmed up by the snow flurries this time. Expecting -14c here tonight, the river is frozen solid here :D

Takes me back to early eighties on Kay Park Pond frozen over in 15 inch ice and the school off for a week cause the old boiler wouldnt work :unsure: -5.4 in Ayr just know

Edited by markg
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Is that feature from Denmark - heading slightly north? - maybe hit Berwick area?

Seems a fair rash of showers hitting N/e England now.

All the forecasts seem to say showers for here but dunno where they are likely to come from.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Is that feature from Denmark - heading slightly north? - maybe hit Berwick area?

Seems a fair rash of showers hitting N/e England now.

All the forecasts seem to say showers for here but dunno where they are likely to come from.

Yeah, interesting set up.

I wonder just how much interaction with the southern low is occuring. If the south low nudges north and the cloudmass up north continues south, then I think the Denmark feature will be squeezed south on a heading with NE England / E. England - good news for them, crap for us!

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Yeah, interesting set up.

I wonder just how much interaction with the southern low is occuring. If the south low nudges north and the cloudmass up north continues south, then I think the Denmark feature will be squeezed south on a heading with NE England / E. England - good news for them, crap for us!

In fact on relooking at it - it looks much more south than i first thought, think you are right with the interaction with southern low. Shame!

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Posted
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire

I know i'm not much of a forecaster, however, i have my own theory on what might happen over the next 24/48 hours, so here goes!!

The LP in south England will be squeezed south into northern France and Holland, as this tracks slightly south and east, the LP over Denmark will be pushed north into Eastern Scotland, Angus/Fife/Edinburgh/Borders in particular. As this moves NE, the system over the Faroes will continue to track south then take a SE path, sliding across the country towards Edinburgh but will be blocked as it tracks south. The HP over the Atlantic wont manage to spread over the whole UK, it will squeeze into England and northern France as the LP dissipates. The LP over the NE will be pushed further East as the system over Faroes sinks south over the UK, followed by more cold air, this time mainly from the N/NW.

I know this might be very far fetched but i can somehow see this happening!

Edited by yeahbabyyeah
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

For east-central Scotland ... I dunno Joe. Pressure looks pretty high and which will squeeze the life out of any convection. And if the 850's are too high then we'd have to compensate with a very cold surface flow from Southern Scandinavia. Although its bloody baltic there now, they might start to get mixed out with the atlantic air coming over the top of that high - and which then returns westwards to us. We'd still get something making land-fall but it could be nothing better than snizzle.

Think for that chart to deliver we either need some of/all of:

- the high being a bit further north (and pressure trherefore a bit lower)

- consequently the fetch to start from colder air at source eg western russia/eastern scandinavia ... perhaps streaming west with -5c surface temperatures when it hits the north sea ... and hoping for as little north-sea modification as possible along the way

- the uppers to be -8c or so (Shuggee's argument for snowfall in Embra needing at least those levels is pretty convincing from the last few weeks)

Maybe if we get 2 out of the 3 conditions then we could still land some decent grauply stuff ... but I'm not expecting the big splodgy radar blobs that deliver an inch per shower ! laugh.gif

Edit: I've seen the weatheronline charts but I'm wary we're at the stage in the cold spell where we're picking out the charts that suit us. Nothing wrong with that - could happen after all ! - but I feel we're casting about a bit with some minor hopecasting coming into play.

No bigger hopecaster than me, believe me !

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/100106_0000_78.png

ECM shows it as well, as does the GFS

h850t850eu.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Not too bad fetch from southern Russia also.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-168.GIF?06-0

By the stage above as the low undercuts uppers drop to around -6 but with a fair land track for Edinburgh, Fife and inland parts I reckon that, like when we had that snow from the northeasterly, uppers would be low enough for snow for most. Now perhaps it won't turn out to be very much, but with uppers initially around -11 and a moderate flow from the east, I think there is at least some chance of beefy snow showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

Grand Match latest: further update from the RCCC tomorrow afternoon.

http://scottishcurlingforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=645.195

Unless there is major snowfall in the next few days, I reckon Monday could be a go-er.

Until then, the waiting continues...

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Posted
  • Location: Out the back of Monifieth .. .. 50m ish
  • Location: Out the back of Monifieth .. .. 50m ish

[

By the stage above as the low undercuts uppers drop to around -6 but with a fair land track for Edinburgh, Fife and inland parts I reckon that, like when we had that snow from the northeasterly, uppers would be low enough for snow for most. Now perhaps it won't turn out to be very much, but with uppers initially around -11 and a moderate flow from the east, I think there is at least some chance of beefy snow showers.

Edited by Snowplough33
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Grand Match latest: further update from the RCCC tomorrow afternoon.

http://scottishcurlingforum.co.uk/index.php?topic=645.195

Unless there is major snowfall in the next few days, I reckon Monday could be a go-er.

Until then, the waiting continues...

There has already been some warming up down here in Kilmacolm. My parent's pond was cleared of snow yesterday and then again today, so will no doubt have curling all weekend and right through next week and even beyond. This isn't really that unusual (unlike the Grand Match) as there was curling back in 2005 (roughly) and previously in 2001. If I get round to it later I will put photos up, although I don't have any of anyone actually curling since I missed them :D I should get some curling action photos up by the weekend :) :) :)

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Is the longevity of the snowcover very unusual for you weathermaster?

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Chances are there for something by then LS ... although the HP looks to be increasingly killing snow chances here up to the weekend - but from these charts not necessarily so from then on. The core of the HP being a hundred miles either way on these charts would make a massive difference. Its in the balance but the possibilities are there as you say :lol:

http://en.vedur.is/p...106_0000_78.png

ECM shows it as well, as does the GFS

h850t850eu.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Not too bad fetch from southern Russia also.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn961.png

http://www.meteociel...M1-168.GIF?06-0

By the stage above as the low undercuts uppers drop to around -6 but with a fair land track for Edinburgh, Fife and inland parts I reckon that, like when we had that snow from the northeasterly, uppers would be low enough for snow for most. Now perhaps it won't turn out to be very much, but with uppers initially around -11 and a moderate flow from the east, I think there is at least some chance of beefy snow showers.

Edited by by-tor
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