Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

[reef]

The top 10 coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1916/17: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/79: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.50C (to 8th Feb provisonally)

1981/82: 2.57C

1940/41: 2.60C

A mean of 3.41C or below is required in the remaining 20 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

[kold weather]

I should think thats looking quite likely to be reached Reef unless we get a real decent warm week at the end of the month. I think though where it is now is probably where its going to stay and thus the coldest winter since 78-79...

[LomondSnowstorm]

The top 10 coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1916/17: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/79: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.50C (to 8th Feb provisonally)

1981/82: 2.57C

1940/41: 2.60C

A mean of 3.41C or below is required in the remaining 20 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

Historic indeed then. It MIGHT just knock the bitter winter of 41/42 off its perch, perhaps even approaching the winter my granddad was born in - in fact, in Scotland, it has a very good chance, with the mean for December/January at 0.2C, compared to 1.45C for 28/29 and 0.8C for the start of 62/63, though with such a cold February the coldest winter since 1914 in Scotland looks fairly unlikely to be beaten at 0.16C in 62/63. It would take February being as cold as January for this to occur. The second coldest winter at 0.45C (1979) is a plausible target, needing an average under 0.8C for this.

LS

edit:

The chart from the day my grandad was born:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/slp/1928/Rslp19281231.gif

Edited February 10, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Weather-history]

Here's a list I did on Ukweatherworld, the other day comparing the 1st Dec-6th Feb period with previous such periods

1st Dec 2009 - 6th Feb 2010 CET: 2.5C

1st Dec 2008 - 6th Feb 2009 CET: 3.0C

1st Dec 1996 - 6th Feb 1997 CET: 2.9C

1st Dec 1995 - 6th Feb 1996 CET: 3.0C

1st Dec 1990 - 6th Feb 1991 CET: 3.4C

1st Dec 1986 - 6th Feb 1987 CET: 3.6C

1st Dec 1985 - 6th Feb 1986 CET: 4.5C

1st Dec 1984 - 6th Feb 1985 CET: 3.4C

1st Dec 1981 - 6th Feb 1982 CET: 1.9C

1st Dec 1978 - 6th Feb 1979 CET: 1.7C

1st Dec 1976 - 6th Feb 1977 CET: 2.6C

1st Dec 1962 - 6th Feb 1963 CET: -0.3C

1st Dec 1950 - 6th Feb 1951 CET: 2.7C

1st Dec 1946 - 6th Feb 1947 CET: 2.4C

1st Dec 1944 - 6th Feb 1945 CET: 2.4C

1st Dec 1941 - 6th Feb 1942 CET: 2.9C

1st Dec 1940 - 6th Feb 1941 CET: 2.1C

1st Dec 1939 - 6th Feb 1940 CET: 0.9C

1st Dec 1928 - 6th Feb 1929 CET: 2.6C

1st Dec 1916 - 6th Feb 1917 CET: 1.4C

1st Dec 1894 - 6th Feb 1895 CET: 2.2C

1st Dec 1892 - 6th Feb 1893 CET: 2.3C

1st Dec 1890 - 6th Feb 1891 CET: 0.7C

Edited February 10, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

11th Dec- 10th Feb CET: 1.8C (cf. 1974-75 with 6.6C)

And that is based on provisional figures for January and February

So we have had a 9 week period that has likely turned out to be sub 2C for the CET when the official figures have come in

So it is going to turn out to be the most prolonged period of cold domination for the winter season since at least the mid 1980s.

Edited February 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

Yep Mr.Data, seems quite probable that this winter will be the coldest since 78-79, though its lacked any super cold month (lets say sub 1C) its been fairly cold throughout with very little in the way of milder days, plus it did have a very cold period between Dec-Jan which is whats helped to drag the CET that low...

Anyway, this winter finally shows 80s style winters still possible...

[Weather-history]

Yep Mr.Data, seems quite probable that this winter will be the coldest since 78-79, though its lacked any super cold month (lets say sub 1C) its been fairly cold throughout with very little in the way of milder days, plus it did have a very cold period between Dec-Jan which is whats helped to drag the CET that low...

Anyway, this winter finally shows 80s style winters still possible...

Thats just based on temperatures, the other notable feature about this winter has been the snowfalls and the number of days of lying snow.

I'm not sure this winter can be described an 80s style winter yet, it depends on what February delivers in the end. Notable characteristic about the colder winters of the 1980s is that there was one month where there was little wintry weather compared to the other two winter months. This February could be far wintrier and colder than those and threfore this winter is in a different league to the 80s in regards to type

1981-82, it was Feb

1984-85, it was Dec

1985-86, it was Dec (cold wintry last week though)

1986-87, it was Dec

Edited February 11, 2010 by Mr_Data

[picog]

Mr Data your info makes me think that what we've had so far is nothing out of this world or extraordinary, but what people over 40 years old might describe as a "proper winter". That's certainly how it has seemed to me — winter like it used to be.

[Coast]

So are we saying not historical, but still significant?

[kold weather]

Yep Mr.Data, thats probably why this winter will end up coming in colder then the 80s winters, because despite a decent amount of them having months nearly as cold or colder as Jan 10 like Dec 81, Feb 83, Jan 85, Feb 86 and Jan 87, this winter IMO has been closer to say 16-17, at the moment anyway...though obviously a milder December.

As for the snowfall, its been a very impressive winter IMO, we've had many local events across the country, a pretty large event in the east during December and obviously that countrywide snow set-up of early Jan which was quite amazing really!

I think this winter is cleqarly historic FWIW...but not quite upto the legandary mark...those temp profiles show a clear dividing point and IMO most of those would be legandary winter, this winter may just fall short of that category but historic...yes...better then the 80s...quite possibly depending on what the rest of Feb does...as good as the big guns such as 78-79, 46-47k 62-63 etc, not quite.

Edited February 11, 2010 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Mr Data your info makes me think that what we've had so far is nothing out of this world or extraordinary, but what people over 40 years old might describe as a "proper winter". That's certainly how it has seemed to me — winter like it used to be.

No, what I'm saying is that this winter could surpass the 1980s. The Manchester Winter Index is higher than any of the winters of the 1980s so far.

[Tucco]

Amazing to think this winter could beat many winters in the 80's. The lack of severe weather hasn't made it memorable for me. Actually perfered last winter. Conditions were more severe at times here. Low min and lower max recorded last year. Although the snow depth was greater than last year drifting was less of a problem and snowfalls have been light/moderate in nature. Last winter had 2 days of falls of 20cm plus on a single day. Conditions have mostly benign through this winter, the lack of blizzards means I would take many of the milder winters for exciting weather.

[Snowyowl9]

The 80`s winters did have mild or very mild wet decembers besides 1981 of course,looks like this winter has been very consistant cold so far,Except January which was in a different league for much colder and snowier

[trickydicky]

Amazing to think this winter could beat many winters in the 80's. The lack of severe weather hasn't made it memorable for me. Actually perfered last winter. Conditions were more severe at times here. Low min and lower max recorded last year. Although the snow depth was greater than last year drifting was less of a problem and snowfalls have been light/moderate in nature. Last winter had 2 days of falls of 20cm plus on a single day. Conditions have mostly benign through this winter, the lack of blizzards means I would take many of the milder winters for exciting weather.

I don't think the lack of blizzards makes it any less severe. Blizzards are only one aspect of severe winter weather, you can have a raging Blizzard when its 1c outside or even higher. Severe frost is another aspect, it just happens we've had more severe frost than blizzards. Anyway, you might get some next week (blizzards that is).

Edited February 11, 2010 by trickydicky

[johnholmes]

I think the method Mr D uses for Manchester is a first class way of incorporating most if not all the factors most people feel makes for a severe spell/winter.

Also his list of items makes it fairly easy for us all to make a comparison for our own area, either using our own data or the nearest weather station to us.

That way we have identical data to use in our 'feel' for how the weather is or has been.

I have made a start on using my own data over the past 13 years and will eventually add that for RAF Finningley-this will eventually give me well over 60 years-1943-1995 and 1997 onwards.

[kold weather]

Yep very good I agree John, I think perhaps a decent way of telling how good the witner was for the country as a whole maybe to take something like TWS snow index then find in a way of including the CET into it and also the Scottish average temp into that as that should give a decent idea of the winter in a wider part of the country and that would give a decent IMO way of telling how good a winter was in a statistical way.

[stewfox]

Thats just based on temperatures, the other notable feature about this winter has been the snowfalls and the number of days of lying snow.

I'm not sure this winter can be described an 80s style winter yet, it depends on what February delivers in the end. Notable characteristic about the colder winters of the 1980s is that there was one month where there was little wintry weather compared to the other two winter months. This February could be far wintrier and colder than those and threfore this winter is in a different league to the 80s in regards to type

1981-82, it was Feb

1984-85, it was Dec

1985-86, it was Dec (cold wintry last week though)

1986-87, it was Dec

Not sure where you got these figures from ?

However for most of UK

Dec 81 and Jan 82 two cold snaps

1986 it was Feb one cold month

1987 January one cold month

One thing about this winter apart from the odd day is a complete lack of 'mild weather' ie 8c plus

[johnholmes]

Yep very good I agree John, I think perhaps a decent way of telling how good the witner was for the country as a whole maybe to take something like TWS snow index then find in a way of including the CET into it and also the Scottish average temp into that as that should give a decent idea of the winter in a wider part of the country and that would give a decent IMO way of telling how good a winter was in a statistical way.

I'd agree with that-be nice to have a full list of winters over years past for the whole country-mind you who is going to do it?!

In the list Mr D posted at No 206 this winter stands at 12th out of 23. Okay you can say he chose selectively, but then he posted it on 6 feb and was merely showing data for all the previous 'cold' spells over a similar period.

So not a bad wintry spell

[ScottSnow]

Not sure where you got these figures from ?

However for most of UK

Dec 81 and Jan 82 two cold snaps

1986 it was Feb one cold month

1987 January one cold month

One thing about this winter apart from the odd day is a complete lack of 'mild weather' ie 8c plus

I think Mr D was mentioning the milder month of the particular winters, while this winter we haven't had one really severe month we may end up with all three being cold. It's this potential for three consecutive cold months that means this winter may beat those of the 80's in terms of status.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not sure where you got these figures from ?

However for most of UK

Dec 81 and Jan 82 two cold snaps

1986 it was Feb one cold month

1987 January one cold month

One thing about this winter apart from the odd day is a complete lack of 'mild weather' ie 8c plus

I'm more with Mr_Data on this one: January 1986 and February 1987 returned a near or slightly below average mean temperature across much of the country.

[johnholmes]

see the post above yours Ian?

all cleared up

[osmposm]

Just thought I'd copy this post I made yesterday in the Media section (here re an interesting Met Office press release), since it relates to conditions in London this winter relative to other years. As I've said elsewhere, in London things this year (unlike many other places) have not been severe either in cold or snow terms, though as elsewhere the consistency of the cold has been remarkable. And that is what I will remember about 2009/10....the almost relentless 'proper' winter weather - two solid months of it so far - something I thought I was unlikely to see again in my lifetime:

Optimus Prime, on 10 February 2010 - 21:55 , said:

.......Even C.London dropped to -6.4c. The record there is -9.1c in January 1987.

Certainly some exceptional temps recorded nationwide. However, that -6.4C figure is not for central London. After studying a blown-up image of the map, I'm pretty sure the figure is for Hampstead: the two central London ones (?St James's Park & London Weather Centre) are the double blob below & slightly right, close to the river. Not sure where to access their figures, but their minima would have been nowhere near as low. The -7.9C to the left, by the way, must be Northolt (I think).

(Min temps overnight 6-7 Jan 2010)

Hampstead is classified as Inner London, but not Central. It is about 4 miles NW of Charing Cross, in the very large (790 acres) and undeveloped Hampstead Heath. It is also much the highest station in the metropolis at 128m asl.

It generally records temps much lower than any other true London station, and the -6.4C is only the lowest since Jan 1996 (which equalled it). In the last fifty years or so for which data is easily accessible (see here http://www.weather-u...pstead/data.htm ), lower minima than that were recorded in 14 winters throughout the 60s (5), 70s (3) & 80s (4), including temps below -10C in Feb 1956 & Jan 1963, and the record -11.9C on 13th Jan 1987. There had been a marked scarcity of low temps recorded in the years since '96, but 2008/9 finally broke the run with -6.0C on 7th Jan last year.

Edited February 12, 2010 by osmposm

[Weather-history]

11th Dec- 10th Feb CET: 1.8C (cf. 1974-75 with 6.6C)

Taking that timeframe, how many CET daily means have been above 6.0C for this winter

Only 1 and that is provisional.

Now in the vast majority of winters you would expect to see at least 1 day above 6.0C for the CET daily mean, so using that same timeframe, 11th Dec-10th Feb, how does that compare to the great winters of the past?

1978-79: 8

1962-63: 5

1946-47: 5

1939-40: 1

1928-29: 6

1916-17: 6

1894-95: 13

1890-91: 7

1878-79: 6

1813-14: 7

So very unusual in regards to the lack of really mild days.

The provisional 6.3C is the "lowest" highest CET daily mean for this stage of the year, since 1978-79 (5.4 was the highest daily CET mean of the year to be recorded by the 10th of February 1979)

[Weather-history]

Uo to 10th February, the highest daily CET mean of the year so far

2010: 6.3 (provisionally)

Years with lower or the same daily CET means by the 10th February

1979: 5.4

1963: 2.4

1940: 5.1

1895: 4.6

1830: 5.8

1829: 6.3

1799: 6.3

1780: 4.9

1772: 6.2

[stewfox]

Taking that timeframe, how many CET daily means have been above 6.0C for this winter

Only 1 and that is provisional.

Now in the vast majority of winters you would expect to see at least 1 day above 6.0C for the CET daily mean, so using that same timeframe, 11th Dec-10th Feb, how does that compare to the great winters of the past?

1978-79: 8

1962-63: 5

1946-47: 5

1939-40: 1

1928-29: 6

1916-17: 6

1894-95: 13

1890-91: 7

1878-79: 6

1813-14: 7

So very unusual in regards to the lack of really mild days.

The provisional 6.3C is the "lowest" highest CET daily mean for this stage of the year, since 1978-79 (5.4 was the highest daily CET mean of the year to be recorded by the 10th of February 1979)

Ok a bit of cherry picking but it still shows a remarkable period re lack of any 'mild days' with only 39/40 matching it

Funny my mum was born 10th December 1939 the day before that 'cold spell' started , she never mentioned it before