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noggin

Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

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This winter is now going to be at least 120+, making it the most notable winter since at least 1995-96 at the absolute minimum

Manchester winter indices from 1973-74

(1962-63: 501)

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 163 up to 5th of February

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

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Yes of course it is going to go down as one of the classics, and a winter that will be harked back to in later years.

In terms of the general public, a couple of people have said to me 'why can't this be stopped from happening with the technology that they have ?'. And that could be something that is being looked into as we speak.

How?

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How?

I'll second that. Even cloud seeding in an attempt to manipulate rainfall on a local scale isn't proven to work reliably, let alone attempting to tinker with the enitre atmospheric circulation in an attempt to prevent us getting seasonal weather.

Perhaps someone has the idea to erect an enormous retractable dome which slides from a housing under the English Channel and locks down to the north of Caithness.

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There's always the possibility of polluting the earth as much as possible in the hope that it will initiate enough AGW to prevent cold snowy winters from ever occurring again. I've heard quite a number of people hoping that AGW is as serious as the IPCC suggest, but it tends to be more from a "hot dry summers" perspective.

You can tinker with the atmosphere as much as you like, but there's always the issue that changing the weather in one area is likely to have big impacts on nearby areas, and that bringing "good" weather for some might amount to bringing "bad" weather for others. I've made a few cynical references recently to the possibility of people, upon hearing a forecast for convective storms for my birthday, "cloud seeding" the skies above my area to give my area a dry sunny day (for "normal" people don't want convective storms on their birthdays...) while causing flooding in neighbouring areas due to huge convergence areas nearby. The Russians did have a similar idea of creating an artificial "snow dome" around Moscow which could feasibly lead to the outskirts being snowed in.

On the other hand I'm pretty certain that if the Government could ban snow on Health and Safety & economic grounds, it would. However, doing so at the moment would be like my friend's light-hearted suggestion of "I'll ban sunshine and showers and if it happens, I'll tell it not to happen again".

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Yes of course it is going to go down as one of the classics, and a winter that will be harked back to in later years.

In terms of the general public, a couple of people have said to me 'why can't this be stopped from happening with the technology that they have ?'. And that could be something that is being looked into as we speak.

I suspect Ian that was one of your tongue in cheek comments or do you have proof of it-other than the 'tjnkering' I call it seeding clouds with no real proof even that works?

Quite why you inserted such a comment into this thread is rather puzzling too.

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Yes of course it is going to go down as one of the classics, and a winter that will be harked back to in later years.

In terms of the general public, a couple of people have said to me 'why can't this be stopped from happening with the technology that they have ?'. And that could be something that is being looked into as we speak.

ethical reasons!!

oh yeah i forgot to add. playing with fire comes to mind.

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In terms of the general public, a couple of people have said to me 'why can't this be stopped from happening with the technology that they have ?'. And that could be something that is being looked into as we speak.

What a very bad idea. What on Earth are people thinking? To mess with nature in this way is dangerous. What might the consequences be?

The Lynton and Lynmouth floods in Devon in the 1950s were thought to have been as a result of trying to alter the weather.

Recently, (in Japan, I think) the authorities are thought to have been messing with the weather with the result being a huge dumping of snow.

I find the thought of trying to alter the weather quite frightening. :(

Will post a link re L and L floods and weather manipulation if I can.

Here we are.... http://www.bbc.co.uk/devon/news_features/2002/lynmouth_flood.shtml

Maybe the subject deserves a thread of it's own?

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.

In terms of the general public, a couple of people have said to me 'why can't this be stopped from happening with the technology that they have ?'. And that could be something that is being looked into as we speak.

Forget the technology, Ian, why didn't your "even larger teapot theory" stop it? Shouldn't that be something you look at?

I'm sure you said last winter was a "one off" and was a mild version of the Hale winter phenomenon and thats why last winter was the way it was. Whats the excuse this time, Ian?

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What a very bad idea. What on Earth are people thinking? To mess with nature in this way is dangerous. What might the consequences be?

The Lynton and Lynmouth floods in Devon in the 1950s were thought to have been as a result of trying to alter the weather.

Recently, (in Japan, I think) the authorities are thought to have been messing with the weather with the result being a huge dumping of snow.

I find the thought of trying to alter the weather quite frightening. shok.gif

Will post a link re L and L floods and weather manipulation if I can.

Here we are.... http://www.bbc.co.uk...uth_flood.shtml

Maybe the subject deserves a thread of it's own?

lots of links to this idea below

http://search.aim.co...ie-aim-ab-en-us

Its a new one on me I have to admit-not heard it before but experiments did go on using dry ice.

having contributed to this I do have to say again what on earth has this topic got to do with the thread heading

maybe mods its time to empty non relevant posts out of here-this included-by all means start a new one on this topic if you feel it is warranted or ask the originator to do that?

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I was under the impression John, that the Lynmouth claims had been dismissed as conspiracy-theorist nonsense???

PS: a mass wander?? :rolleyes::good:

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Getting back to the topic title, I think we would need a long cold and snowy spell for the remainder of February for this winter to qualify as 'historic'.

Certainly it's been a significant departure from recent years with a long cold spell and a fair amount of snow for some but it isn't yet in the same league as winters like 1963, 1947 or 1979.

All of these had much more widespread disruptive snowfalls, with severe drifting, and lower temperatures for longer.

It's easy to lose track of what a historic winter is like on the back of 20 odd years of mild winters and, for younger members, there are no reference points as they haven't lived through one.

At the moment this one is ranking as noteworthy in my opinion, on a par with the cold winters of the early to mid 80s or some in the 60s, but it all depends on the next 3 weeks as to whether it takes the step into 'historic'.

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For the younger members on the forum like myself, this winter will certainly be remembered as historic, simply because we have never seen the wonders of the likes of 78/79. I will certainly remember this winter with fond memories, and hopefully some of those memories are yet to come over the next couple of weks!

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Getting back to the topic title, I think we would need a long cold and snowy spell for the remainder of February for this winter to qualify as 'historic'.

Certainly it's been a significant departure from recent years with a long cold spell and a fair amount of snow for some but it isn't yet in the same league as winters like 1963, 1947 or 1979.

All of these had much more widespread disruptive snowfalls, with severe drifting, and lower temperatures for longer.

It's easy to lose track of what a historic winter is like on the back of 20 odd years of mild winters and, for younger members, there are no reference points as they haven't lived through one.

At the moment this one is ranking as noteworthy in my opinion, on a par with the cold winters of the early to mid 80s or some in the 60s, but it all depends on the next 3 weeks as to whether it takes the step into 'historic'.

Agree with all of this. For my lifetime (62/63 i was alive, but only 1 year old+) 78/79 was especially harsh in the Bristol area. The severe blizzards we experienced in winter 78/79 only matched on occasions in 81 and 87. Although we've had three decent snowfalls this winter the depths from that snow were nothing compared to 78/79, '81 and a massive blizzard we experienced in Jan 87.

But like you say the next 3 weeks or so, could yet yield more snow which could make it on a par with 78/79 - we'll just have to wait and see. Mind you the temps we had in early Jan this year were especially harsh compared to last 20 years.

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I suspect it will depend very much on what part of the country you live in, and how old you are.

Here in the south, in many parts - and particularly in London - by longer term standards it has been unexceptional for either snow quantity or extremity of cold, and in fact I will remember more vividly Feb 2009's Thames streamer and the resultant snow dump in (especially) SW London. I know, though, that some parts of the south have had exceptional snowfall - didn't Reading get hit...twice?.

If you're younger, the frequency of snow, and persistence of cold will be memorable - and even by longer term standards I agree that this persistence and consistency of the cold has been most unusual. In that it has been most like 62-63, though nowhere near as extreme in nature. So, yes, historic in part - and particularly in comparison with what we had got used to.

In the north - and especially Scotland - it is clearly a different matter. But being a thorough sassenach I have no personal experience of northern winters in years gone by to judge it against.

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there seems a distinct possibility that it will figure in the top 20 perhaps the top 10 winters of the last 100 years or so?

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To put things in perspective, this winter I saw the Clyde in Glasgow city centre freezing over for the first time I can remember.

Historic? Not sure, but certainly significant. We had sub -10C temps in 2000 and 1995, so this was actually a little over due if you use that as a predictor. However the length of time it lasted was what really made it.

Now, if we get a week or so of sub-zero daytime temperatures again, then we might be at historic levels. Would be like we had two winters here!

I'd rather that it wasn't historic though. I'd like every winter to be like that here... good.gif

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Recently, (in Japan, I think) the authorities are thought to have been messing with the weather with the result being a huge dumping of snow.

Don't know about Japan, but the Chinese government has certainly been doing it in Beijing:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7899086.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8337337.stm

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Of course I don't have proof of anything John, but this winter has cost business/government millions of pounds that, because, of the m/era, is no longer budgeted for.

i would think that in terms of tinkering, someone is probably already entrusted with the task of seeing if it is possible to mainipulate pressure patterns around Iceland/S Greenland.

You would think that if governments do start interfering with the weather it would have to be agreed in a worldwide context, for example if they tried to ensure milder weather here with low pressure in the Iceland area the Scandanavian countries would get more snow to deal with. Would they be happy with that ?

Personally I believe it would be a big mistake to start to try and manipulate the weather.

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You would think that if governments do start interfering with the weather it would have to be agreed in a worldwide context, for example if they tried to ensure milder weather here with low pressure in the Iceland area the Scandanavian countries would get more snow to deal with. Would they be happy with that ?

Personally I believe it would be a big mistake to start to try and manipulate the weather.

Me too. Surely it is just as costly to do this as it is to deal with the cost of most weather?

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Me too. Surely it is just as costly to do this as it is to deal with the cost of most weather?

......not to mention any unforseen consequences.

Any way, I would dearly love this thread to be back on topic.

So, we are two thirds of the way through this Winter. Already for me it is definitely memorable, with 3 big snowfalls in December and January. What has made it memorable is that the snow stayed for ages.....it didn't melt away. I still had a little snow lying on Christmas Day too, which was about 5/6 days after it fell. Pretty good going for here.

Also, the two big falls in January hung around for a long time.

There have been quite a few smaller falls too, which, pre Feb 2009, would have warranted a small celebration, IMHO!

My concern now (in a snowy sense) is whether or not Winter 2010/2011 will come up with the goods. Has 2009/2010 been a one off or the start of a return to snowier Winters? As Feb 2009 delivered good snow, and then we had this Winter, I am hopeful of the latter, but it depends who you believe. There are some scientists predicting a colder spell for the next 20/30 even 50 years and some who are (and have been for ages) predicting a general warming-up.

So, for me, this Winter has already been memorable and there is still a while to go.

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I have managed to cobble together some data to produce Manchester winter indices for the 1950s

1962-63: 501

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 162 up to 7th of February

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1950-51: 146

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1955-56: 136

1954-55: 132

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1953-54: 87

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1957-58: 79

1951-52: 78

1993-94: 78

1958-59: 77

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1956-57: 43

1992-93: 43

1949-50: 42

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

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Even in the good ole days to get two winters which look like coming out as cold as this winter has in a row wasn't all that common at all, I think the next 5 winters are the big test, if we are turning a corner thenwe should get another winter with at least one lengthy cold spell, if not then this winter may have been an outlier, but at least it proves we can still get very below average months!

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