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noggin

Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

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Its the severest January wintry spell, IMO since 1982, 1985 or 1987 depending on your location.

One or two may argue even 1996 or 1997 or even 1979

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This winter is way off 47 and 63 because we're only on January 6th! If it stays like this for 2 more months then we are in contention! I can't remember the early 80's but what this winter has missed that they had is extreme nightime low temperatures, as in -20 widely across Scotland and in a few prone places in England and Wales. This weekend might sort that out though. From what I gather the 80's spells were fairly intense but shortlived affairs (the longest being 81/82 which we have equaled in terms of length nearly), if we get some -20's on the board then I think we can say we have beaten them - next in line I suppose would be 39/40 and 78/79? Fingers crossed, wood touched.

We already had -18c around here last night and -20 is forcast for some areas in the next few days. A very wide area recorded -10 or below last night and thats likely to be repeated. Its still only -14c in Manchester. That compares to any winter. So we are getting there.

At the moment for me this is Jan 82 , i cant see it getting above -5c here today. Currently -9c here in Bicester cold.gif . A bit of cloud and we would be there + a foot of snow

Duration yes a few more weeks required

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Based on the comments it seems the Midlands has been one of the least affected areas in terms of snowfall / extreme cold to date.

Fairly Cold December (coldest since 95-96) and temps were exceptionally cold last night but there have been several winters in the last 25 years more severe in the West Midlands areas........snowfall/wind/temps.

Compared to what others have told me - this is NOWHERE near as severe as 47,63 or 81 for this area but as a UK whole I suppose it could be a different story as its very widespread this year.......87/91/95 I can also remember being harser in this region.

Its rare the south coast ever gets snow!

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This winter is way off 47 and 63 because we're only on January 6th! If it stays like this for 2 more months then we are in contention! I can't remember the early 80's but what this winter has missed that they had is extreme nightime low temperatures, as in -20 widely across Scotland and in a few prone places in England and Wales. This weekend might sort that out though. From what I gather the 80's spells were fairly intense but shortlived affairs (the longest being 81/82 which we have equaled in terms of length nearly), if we get some -20's on the board then I think we can say we have beaten them - next in line I suppose would be 39/40 and 78/79? Fingers crossed, wood touched.

Entirely agree with you.

I noticed one of the met presenters yesterday quoting that Manchester may have had its lowest ever temperature last night! On record that may be but I'd like to know the temperatures in the infamous winters of 1640 to 1680. If only. smile.gif

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Only time and its judgement will tell if this is to be an historic winter.

But for most of the under 20's on this site, this spell, and perhaps this winter as a whole, will be a benchmark at the very least. I've followed the development of Netweather from before its formation by contributors to the old BBC board, and this is the cold and snow that most wished for, prayed for, and tried to read into the most unpromising models over the last 7 or so years.

I remember 1963, it was exceptional, and I don't expect to live through another like it. But I'll also admit that I did not expect to see again a spell like the one we have now.

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I think 2009/10 will be known as the winter that proved the doubters wrong, that's for sure. Those that seemed convinced it was somehow impossible to get a severe cold spell again, it was an absurd suggestion that has now been smashed into pieces. Long may it continue.

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At 9am tomorrow, it will surely be the 7th Successive Met Office Snow day, the 11th of the winter so far. Admittedly npt that much snow but still a thick blanket covering the 50% rule.

In the preceding 11 winters, there was a total of 2 Met Office Snow Days in January. :lol:

So by any stretch, a very snowy winter so far, and yet there not been a huge snowfall, of more than 4 inches at any time this winter here. It has also been very cold with some severe icing over locals water courses.

If we could more snow from Sunday and Monday event or from fronts from the South West, to give at least a period of heavy lying snow, this would make this a truly memorable winter, as opposed to a very good one.

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Thanks Mr Data for the following stats which my reckoning would probably put the CET for winter 96/97 at this stage somewhere near the 2 degree mark, colder than this winter, why the BBC are saying most prolonged cold since 81/82 I don't know.-

96-97 was at 2.25C roughly for the first half of that winter...we are already at 2.53C and thats with another week and a bit of strong cooling to occur.

As to comparisons in general to winters since 91/82, dec 95 beats anything so far that this winter has delivered here in Cumbria in terms of severe cold, but granted in terms of snow we haven't been bettered for early winter snowiness since dec 81.

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If we could more snow from Sunday and Monday event or from fronts from the South West, to give at least a period of heavy lying snow, this would make this a truly memorable winter, as opposed to a very good one.

It would indeed!

For me, the last time I can (vaguely) remember snow like this was '95 or '96.

If we have more snow Sunday into Monday... it would be a Winter to remember. We've had snowfall at some point for the last 3 or so weeks. I can't recall it happening for me.

The usual snow event is Feb/March and then a big thaw in the Afternoon sun.

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Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09

(1962-63: 501)

1978-79: 262

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

2009-10: 103 up to 7th January

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

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Thanks Mr Data for the following stats which my reckoning would probably put the CET for winter 96/97 at this stage somewhere near the 2 degree mark, colder than this winter, why the BBC are saying most prolonged cold since 81/82 I don't know.-

96-97 was at 2.25C roughly for the first half of that winter...we are already at 2.53C and thats with another week and a bit of strong cooling to occur.

As to comparisons in general to winters since 91/82, dec 95 beats anything so far that this winter has delivered here in Cumbria in terms of severe cold, but granted in terms of snow we haven't been bettered for early winter snowiness since dec 81.

1996/97 wasn`t as cold as this cold spell and it gave much less snow it was one of the longest with snow on the ground full cover at 3weeks.

This cold spell beats december 1995 now by quite a margin.

January 1982 gave a severe blizzard and that cold lasted 10days.

1981/82 were the record breakers for low temperatures the river severn was frozen over.

The river severn is now getting frozen havn`t seen it like that since 1986.

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Yes and I do remember Ian Brown saying before last winter when he gave his winter forecast how a even a 1995-96 winter was in his opinion no longer possible, never mind a 1981/82, 1978/79 or 1962/63! how times have changed since then LOL! Even Ian seems to be cold ramping now! You have got to understand, that in climatological terms 1995 is just like yesterday, climate change takes a long time to take effect. Anyway which winter would you say that this most closely resembles, 1991, 1995, 1982, 1979 or 1963?

Luke

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Yes and I do remember Ian Brown saying before last winter when he gave his winter forecast how a even a 1995-96 winter was in his opinion no longer possible, never mind a 1981/82, 1978/79 or 1962/63! how times have changed since then LOL! Even Ian seems to be cold ramping now! You have got to understand, that in climatological terms 1995 is just like yesterday, climate change takes a long time to take effect. Anyway which winter would you say that this most closely resembles, 1991, 1995, 1982, 1979 or 1963?

Luke

So far this winter has been a bit of a combination of 78/79, 81/82, 95/96 in the sense that all these winters in their early stages saw alternating easterly and northerly airstreams, however, I would say it has resembled much more 81/82 in terms of widespread snowfal, and the upcoming week has a 1978/79 air about it and even more so a early feb 96 air about it.

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Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09

(1962-63: 501)

1978-79: 262

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

2009-10: 140 up to 12th January

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

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Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2008-09

(1962-63: 501)

1978-79: 262

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

2009-10: 140 up to 12th January

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

Thanks very much for those stats Mr D. Astonishing that we are only half way through winter and we have already beaten most winters in that series!

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Quite interesting that Kevin as it looks pretty certain its going to be higher so rivalling some of the better known wintry winters?

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Looking at the broad evolution at the moment and teleconnections I'm pretty sure now this will end up as a historic winter, still could go wrong but right now the general set-up is as good as it'll get for a breakdown and yet looking at the models we struggle to get much in the way of milder air and the upper high builds back near the UK which keeps things cool/cold.

Several of the cold winters went the way of the pear at this stage, such as 81-82, 76-77 and 96-97 are good examples, if we can get past this stage then I'd have thought a historic, maybe even legendary winter is possible.

IMO this winter is already very close to historic, we've had a 30 day period thats very close to sub 0C, many many places have seen big falls of snow, we've had a real countrywide snow event, plenty of ice days in that area, Scotland seeing one of the coldest first halfs, mins recorded below -20C in the north and down to -18C in the south as well.

On the basis of that I'd say we really aren't that far from historic winter, may just need one more decent cold spell to nail that position...a very cold Feb would probably make this a real contender with the likes of 16-17, 39-40, 46-47, 62-63 and 78-79...

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Just a little thought.

Winter 1739-40 struck after an extended "warm" period

Winter 1939-40 struck after an extended "warm" period

Are we seeing the modern version of those winters?

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This has got to be an historic "something"!

Apart from our dumping just before Christmas and the one from last week (which is still here!), it has now been snowing here for 19 hours with no let-up in sight!

Blimey, talk about a Winter wonderland..... :(

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It's certainly been historic for Joe B: it's the first one he's ever got right! :o :( :o

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It'll be interesting to see if we can get probably our first historic winter since probably 90-91, a severe month (1.5C or colder) will probably seal the deal and join the historic group with the likes of 85-86, 90-91, 86-87 (though thats only there for that record spell) 95-96 probably just missed out on that thanks to a rather bland Jan.

Of course this winter still has some way to go to get to the very top band of legendary winters yet IMO but its making a decent claim.

Also...who'd have thought we'd have been in this position in late November, after a very mild November and a zonal dominated set of models and strong El nino, I certainly didn't!

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Also...who'd have thought we'd have been in this position in late November, after a very mild November and a zonal dominated set of models and strong El nino, I certainly didn't!

November 1939? Very mild and wet November, an El Nino, warm Arctic, period of mild dominated winters, the previous winter whetted the apetitie.......

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Its certainly very interesting to see these cycles of colder winters, of course this could as easily be like 95-97 as a 40s type big scale change of winters. In some ways 78-79 also is rather similar in that after that winter we went through a phase of winters that managed multiple severe months.

Somewhat off topic but I've noticed something similar occur when we see a change in the warm/cold cycles in the Atlantic, with a big hurricane season when we start to change, for example we saw a big hurricane season in 1933, then a slow increase in hurricane strengths, then a big season in 1969 which saw afterwards less hurricane making landfall and generally weaker seasons, then in 1995 yet another large season then since then we've been in an active phase...

So does seem like sometimes big events can cause the Atmosphere to get into something of a rut.

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There have been some scientific papers suggesting that we could be seeing a shift of the atmospheric circulation back towards the patterns we saw a lot of between the 1940s and 1980s, which could result in a run of colder snowier winters for north-west Europe, maybe not as cold or snowy as the 1940s-1980s due to the higher average global temperatures, but still more so than we've been used to over the last two decades.

My UK snow index is provisionally set to rise to 39 after this snow event (could reach 40 if the front keeps intensity and brings a lot of snow as it heads into Scotland) and that would make it the snowiest winter already since 1985/86, with more than half of the potentially snow-producing period still to go.

If we get a mild February and spring then it will probably come out similar to the likes of 1984/85 and 1985/86, maybe as high as 1981/82. But if it keeps on the way it's been going so far, it could well end up with an index similar to that of 1978/79.

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What certainly is interesting is how we've seen the jet be generally more southerly in the last 24 months or so, so something to watch over the next couple of years.

At least one thing is for sure, we ARE still able to get proper long lasting cold spells, I think this spell has been every bit as impressive as some of the cold spells that we saw in the 80s, maybe the maxes were a little higher then those but every other factor has been broadly on par.

A certain Mr.Brown's idea of not being able to get old school cold spells has been IMO destroyed by the last 30 days or so...

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