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noggin

Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

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2008/09 had all three months come in below the 1971-2000 average I believe, though February was only 0.1C below. Using the 1961-90 baseline the last time it happened was in 1990/91, with December and January fractionally below and February well below.

Thanks TWS . Do you know the last time we had two winters in a row with all three months below average like the last two ? Be very interesting to see how next winter pans out. Regards Billy

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Hi, could anyone tell me the last winter when all three winter months were below the cet average . Apologies if this has allready been answered in this thread .Thanks in advance. Billy

If its the CET data set you are enquiring about-this link gives you all the data you need to find out

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/centralengav_temperat.htm

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Thanks TWS . Do you know the last time we had two winters in a row with all three months below average like the last two ? Be very interesting to see how next winter pans out. Regards Billy

billy, you could try using the "CET analyser" programme that Bottesford created here

It's really handy and easy to use.

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2008/09 had all three months come in below the 1971-2000 average I believe, though February was only 0.1C below. Using the 1961-90 baseline the last time it happened was in 1990/91, with December and January fractionally below and February well below.

February 2009 was above the 1961-90 average, by 0.3*C. Another main point to remember, is that whilst 1990-91 did have a notable cold spell in the first half of Feb, it was then followed by a lengthy mild spell and March was very mild at 7.9*C.

We finally appear to get a proper colder than average February, this month has not even been more than fractionally below average for 14 years, and there is still hope of a sub 3.0*C CET for this month, around 2.8 or 2.9 looks the likely landing zone now I think, although there is still an outside chance that we may just cruelly miss sub 3.0*C. It will certainly be the coldest since 1996 but we are not going to beat Feb 1996.

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The Manchester Winter Index has breached the 200 mark (currently 203). Not sure it will stay above this value by winter's end but nevertheless it will turn out to be the 4th significant winter since WWII for the Manchester area with 1946-47, 1962-63 and 1978-79 ahead of it.

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Mine looks like being the 6th in 64 years

46-47, 62-63, 78-79, 81-82 just, and I think one in the 50's from memory ahead

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although there is still an outside chance that we may just cruelly miss sub 3.0*C.

Really couldn't give a onions whether we do or not to be blunt.

It hasn't been a proper cold month for England. January was. Scotlands statistics are going to be far more interesting then Englands;

December 0.3c

January 0.1c

February 1.4c (?)

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Really couldn't give a onions whether we do or not to be blunt.

It hasn't been a proper cold month for England. January was. Scotlands statistics are going to be far more interesting then Englands;

December 0.3c

January 0.1c

February 1.4c (?)

We in the swest would say yes its been a cold one but not the snowiest one ,1982 blew this winter away we had thunder snow a couple of 6inc of snow then the best 24hrs of snow delivering 3ft of snow,yes lying snow this winter been good but the amount of snow has been poor.

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Now we're approaching the end of Feb - one word for this winter sums it up for me:

REMARKABLE

My observations say it all really:

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As I have said in previous posts, its been a very good winter for persistant cold with only the first ten days of Dec being mild since then bar the odd day getting close to 7/8 degrees its been remarkable for below average or near average temps at best.

However, for snowfall, in terms of number of days with snowcover its been ok nothing expectional here in the Lake District on a par with 95/96. In terms of depths of snow apart from 20/21 Dec its been very poor with most falls only delivering an inch or two at best, we missed out on the deep falls that affected much of the NW on the 6th Jan.

I will look back on winter 09/10 with fond memory though with the period between 17th Dec and 15th Jan sticking out, almost perfect winter weather and if I could have what happened during that particular period every year I would be a very happy man, it made for a very beautiful snowy run up to christmas and the christmas week was great with lots of snow, the best christmas day in a long time. The 7 day spell between 3rd-9th Jan was sub zero, again very special. Since the 15th Jan its been unremarkable though and will probably not linger in my memory long - I think many will compare this winter to 81/82 as opposed to 78/79, with the snowiest and coldest weather reserved in the first half in contrast to most winters.

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I don't think you can really compare this winter to that one though really, given the Feb was very mild, and this Feb has been pretty cold, even though it hasn't felt that cold!

Probably in part due to getting used to these cold days now I dare say!

Still the period between the 15th December and the 15th of Jan is indeed one that will be around for a long time, couple of big snowfalls as well as pretty much a countrywide fall.

I think for England this winter goes down as historic...for Scotland...possibly very close to legendary....

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The "standout period" of this winter, for me, will always be 17 December to 9 January. Not only was it generally snowy, it was bright and snowy with an emphasis on convective rather than frontal snowfalls, and during the January spell the snow was fresh and powdery rather than slushy and icy. Even after three weeks of it I was still willing it to go on and on.

The other memorable wintry spells were the 29th January-1st February (cold and sunny, Tyneside had a 6 inch dumping, Norwich 1-2 inches, which thawed only gently in the sunshine despite maxima of 3 or 4C) and the 10th February, which gave another bout of convective snowfall in Norwich and an inch or two.

Can't say I've really cared much for the current spell of dull weather in Norfolk with the odd brief snow event giving a dusting before it turned back to sleet/rain, but I'm well aware that it's been a very different story in Scotland and to a lesser extent northern England where the cold bright regime has recurred once again.

Averaged nationally, this winter has to go down as the most notable for cold and snow since 1978/79- it beats all subsequent winters on so many different counts.

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I can only second the view expressed by those above. My statistics are slightly outdated, so I'll have to change that as the snow falling and snow lying days have increased since then. This means that it will probably transpire that in this winter, we will have had more days with snow falling than not, pretty incredible when you think about the last few winters! It has been a beautiful winter also, lacking in the usual slush after snowfalls (except today !) and with far more clear, crisp days to get out and about in the snow. From a personal point of view, this has been a huge landmark for me as I was really brought up with the idea that severe winters were things of the past, not something which you would even consider happening in the age of AGW, though I suppose for many generations it will have been the case that winters of the past have appeared much snowier and colder than they perhaps were. Nonetheless, this truly was spectacular, so much so that some people on the Scottish forum have lacked enthusiasm for a 3 or 4 inch dumping (wish I'd got that today), something which would usually be the highlight of the winter!

I assume with this major snowfall in western and northern Scotland as well as events in the midlands and northern England in the last few days,TWS, that we shall exceed 1981/82 in UK snow event index handsomely. I also await the average temperature for this month, which will hopefully not be inflated too much by the relative warmth across eastern central Scotland tonight, though with snow cover on the ground across most of Scotland by Friday night, some low minima in northern Scotland could certainly be on the cards.

LS

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Just though of something. The last 15yrs have been mild but the 15-20 before that came in very cold and before that there was a few mild ones does that mean were entering a phase of 10-15 cold winters? If we are then hooray.

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It`s been the snowiest february since 1996 for all round snow depth,but it`s been colder upto now!!!!

And the number of falling snow days was 15 in feb 1996 also 15 days this month,will it get to 16.

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Interesting that unlike some great winters of the past or even recent cold winters, that the easterlies this winter have been poor efforts for a bulk of the country, favoured locations did well but they were restricted. The extensive cold and snowy spells have not come from the east but from the north and the recent snowy spell over Scotland was brought by a system coming up from the south. Manchester has had two days with lying snow this month brought by systems coming from the west and tracking eastwards.

When we had easterlies they have been poor when you compare them to the two easterlies of the winter of 1995-96.

Look at this chart and on face value, what a chart to have for January, you might say but it was really poor though.

Rrea00120100110.gif

1995-96 had two cold and snowy easterly spells

1990-91 had a potent easterly in Feb

1986-87 had a potent easterly

1985-86, Feb was easterly dominated.

1984-85 had cold easterly spells.

But this winter has been devoid of them.

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Indeed Data which explains why Scotland has had an exceptionally cold and snowy winter. I don't remember us doing too well in the easterly of February 1986? Flurries and a dusting was about as much but some areas had quite a few inches in the east.

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Interesting that unlike some great winters of the past or even recent cold winters, that the easterlies this winter have been poor efforts for a bulk of the country, favoured locations did well but they were restricted. The extensive cold and snowy spells have not come from the east but from the north and the recent snowy spell over Scotland was brought by a system coming up from the south. Manchester has had two days with lying snow this month brought by systems coming from the west and tracking eastwards.

When we had easterlies they have been poor when you compare them to the two easterlies of the winter of 1995-96.

Look at this chart and on face value, what a chart to have for January, you might say but it was really poor though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120100110.gif

1995-96 had two cold and snowy easterly spells

1990-91 had a potent easterly in Feb

1986-87 had a potent easterly

1985-86, Feb was easterly dominated.

1984-85 had cold easterly spells.

But this winter has been devoid of them.

I agree. In this location living close to the North Sea a good benchmark is whether we manage sub-zero temperatures during an easterly spell (this goes for during the night as well as the day). In these 'not so great' easterly spells we often get temperatures of around 2-4C by day but around 0-2C by night. This lead to the bizarre situation in January of the upper air temperatures dropping when the wind turned to the east in the second week, but the lying snow we had on the ground thawing over a couple of days.

Northerlies have definitely been more productive here this winter. Not to mention they have allowed much lower temperatures by both day and night. Easterlies are great if you have proper cold air present (and by that I mean -12C or colder, though snow will fall when its milder than this of course), otherwise temperatures here just generally arent cold enough for prolonged lying snow without a thaw.

Its the only thing this winter has missed really. A potent easterly with extremely cold uppers. Its that to me what keeps this winter as 'notable' and not historic.

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Indeed Data which explains why Scotland has had an exceptionally cold and snowy winter. I don't remember us doing too well in the easterly of February 1986? Flurries and a dusting was about as much but some areas had quite a few inches in the east.

Not all of Scotland wallbash.gif

Decent snow on the 22nd December has been the lot for Glasgow

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Just though of something. The last 15yrs have been mild but the 15-20 before that came in very cold and before that there was a few mild ones does that mean were entering a phase of 10-15 cold winters? If we are then hooray.

What will be very interesting is when we see a flip in the AMO state, who knows when that will be but it'll be a pretty clear steady decline in the SSTA's in the Atlantic over a couple of years.

Whats real clear is the jump in the CET series exactly when we began to flip into the warm phase of the AMO, its actually uncanny, thats being between 1994 and 1995. Since then we've only managed to muster a handful of sub 10C years. If you think about it a warmer Atlantic could well be enough to add say 0.5-0.7C onto the yearly temps when you combine it with other background warming. This winter however has nothing to do with that and more down to the exceptional AO...thats been the true driver this winter...the NAO has been negative but often this has been actually just a side effect of the monster -ve AO signal which has over ridden everything and shunted a powerful jet way south, which in turn has helped to prop up various upper highs over the Atlantic and often in the Greenland area...IMO thats why the northerlies have been more potent then the easterlies this winter.

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Well the index ended up at 197

Manchester Winter Indices

1962-63: 501

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1950-51: 146

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1955-56: 136

1954-55: 132

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1953-54: 87

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1957-58: 79

1951-52: 78

1993-94: 78

1958-59: 77

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1956-57: 43

1992-93: 43

1949-50: 42

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

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Mine ended up on 123.2 making it the 6th wintriest winter in about 65 years of records for this area, just being beaten by 1981-82.

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Winter index here from 1987/88 to present:

2009/10: 197

1995/95: 144

1990/91: 107

1993/94: 80

2000/01: 79

2003/04: 59

2005/06: 53

1998/99: 52

2002/03: 52

2008/09: 50

1996/97: 48

1991/92: 46

1992/93: 46

2001/02: 43

2004/05: 42

1994/95: 38

1987/88: 35

1999/00: 33

1997/98: 20

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

1989/90: 11

1988/89: 8

- Sleet or snow has fallen on 29 days which is the most in the period (next is 1990/91 with 22 days).

- There has been a half cover or more at 0900 on 21 days which is also the most in the period (next is 1995/96 with 15 days).

- Air frosts have been observed on 35 days which is the highest since 1985/86 (36 days) and just shy of the record set in 1984/85 (38 days).

- Average maximum temperature is 4.310C - the lowest since my temperature records began in 1982. (Next Lowest is 1985/86 on 4.592C).

- Mean temperature is 2.3C, which is the lowest since my temperature records began in 1982. (next is 1984/85 on 2.6C).

So quite a winter and certainly notable.

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