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noggin

Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

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Guest North Sea Snow Convection

Yes I think it has been a fantastic winter it does look like that this winter will become officially the coldest since 1978/79 which is really good for cold and snow lovers. Also we know that it has been a colder than average winter not just for the UK and Northwestern Europe but also Eastern Europe, China, the Eastern part of the US and the Midwestern US but is it true that the Pacific Northwest of the US (which also includes Western Canada where of course the Winter Olympics are being hosted) has had a very mild winter? I thought I read that Seattle has had a record mild January is that correct? Have the conditions in Seattle this winter been similar to what we get in our midler more zonal type winters with LP after LP piling in bringing constant wind and rain? Also have Greece been milder than average considering that they often experience colder than average temperatures when we are milder than average?

Luke

Yes Greece have had a even larger teapotsmile.gif An Aegean Bartlett to blame

Post 1988 all over again - east mediterranean style this time!

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Two outstanding features of this winter for the Manchester area are the amount of falling and lying snow which would be classified as very snowy for this area and the other is the lack of mild days, no double digit maximum since 9th of December, 44 days thus far with maxima that were sub 5C

Manchester winter index is currently 195

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yes no 10C here since 9 Dec

My Mr D weather factor is now 118.9 so this winter standing currently still at 6th in data for 65 years. 1981-82 is just ahead at 128.3.

So only the winters of 1962-63, 1946-7, 1955-56, 1978-79 and 1981-82 'wintier'

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A good blizzard in the remaining days of February and/or a cold and snowy March would just about place this winter in the historic category. Yes I know March is, meteorologically, spring but as far as the senses are concerned winter lasts as long as the wintry weather continues. The 1979 winter was already a classic by the end of February but its greateness was added to by what happened in March.

As far as my own back yard is concerned this winter will finish in the top 5 for frequency of snowfall, number of days with lying snow, accumulated depth of snow and frequency of frost since I moved here in 1977.

Equally notable, as mentioned above by John and Mr D, is the lack of any mild interludes. The last 10c day here was on November 24th and, at present, the highest max' for Feb' of 5.9c is a full degree lower than that for January.

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yes no 10C here since 9 Dec

My Mr D weather factor is now 118.9 so this winter standing currently still at 6th in data for 65 years. 1981-82 is just ahead at 128.3.

So only the winters of 1962-63, 1946-7, 1955-56, 1978-79 and 1981-82 'wintier'

There must be large parts of the UK that hasn’t seen a 10c for well over two months?

How would that compare to 62/63 and 46/47 .

That’s must beat all other years in recent times ?.

More snow here today and I would guess 25+ day here of falling snow .

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There must be large parts of the UK that hasn't seen a 10c for well over two months?

How would that compare to 62/63 and 46/47 .

That's must beat all other years in recent times ?.

More snow here today and I would guess 25+ day here of falling snow .

data for this area=RAF Finningely 1943-1995 and my site 1997-

Obviously I cannot quote for other areas of the UK but for this area comparisons are

Finningley 1946-47 days not reaching/exceeding 10C=two separate periods=11 Dec-15 Jan and 17 Jan-17 March

and for 1962-63=16 Dec-5 March=79 days

this winter= 10 Dec onwards, so currently, 74 days, which means a further 6 days to break that record-possible? probably, looking at the model outputs; close one day this week but seems 75% against it breaking 10C.

so yet another point towards this winter being close to historic-highly unusual certainly.

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There must be large parts of the UK that hasn’t seen a 10c for well over two months?

How would that compare to 62/63 and 46/47 .

That’s must beat all other years in recent times ?.

More snow here today and I would guess 25+ day here of falling snow .

Here's a post I made on the 10th of February and updated to the 21st of February

Taking that timeframe of 11th December -21st of February, how many CET daily means have been above 6.0C for this winter

Only 1 and that is provisional.

Now in the vast majority of winters you would expect to see at least 1 day above 6.0C for the CET daily mean, so using that same timeframe, 11th Dec-21st Feb, how does that compare to the great winters of the past?

1978-79: 8

1962-63: 5

1946-47: 5

1939-40: 1

1928-29: 6

1916-17: 6

1894-95: 13

1890-91: 7

1878-79: 6

1813-14: 10

So very unusual in regards to the lack of really mild days.

Up to 21st February, the highest daily CET mean of the year so far

2010: 6.3 (provisionally)

Years with a lower or the same daily CET means by the 21st February

1979: 5.4 ----> still 5.4 by end of Feb

1963: 2.4 ----> still 2.4 by end of Feb

1940: 5.1 ----> 9.0 by end of Feb

1895: 4.6 ----> still 4.6 by end of Feb

1830: 5.8 ----> 9.8 by end of Feb

1780: 4.9 ----> 7.4 by end of Feb

1772: 6.2 ----> 8.5 by end of Feb

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Here's a post I made on the 10th of February and updated to the 21st of February

Taking that timeframe of 11th December -21st of February, how many CET daily means have been above 6.0C for this winter

Only 1 and that is provisional.

Now in the vast majority of winters you would expect to see at least 1 day above 6.0C for the CET daily mean, so using that same timeframe, 11th Dec-21st Feb, how does that compare to the great winters of the past?

1978-79: 8

Interesting to see 8 in 78/79 winter (from 11th December).

I assume many of those happen late December 1978 ?.

I had my snowman around for 40days in Jan/Feb 1979 .

Did it get milder end Feb 1979 ? (CET was just 1.4c).

I am comparing that winter more and more with that one then any in the 80s.

Yes the CET has been higher but lying snow /frequency is getting comparable

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Yeah the CET hasn';t been quite as cold for most of the time (though of course by the standards we've been used to its pretty amazing!) but the snowfall amounts is what really is starting to stand out, I'd imagine this will be generally the snowiest winter since 78-79 and it can't be far from being on a par with that winter in some locations as well now.

As I said earlier we are now going for something of a rare event now, if Feb comes in at or below 2.7C, this will be the first winter since 62-63 to have all three months come in 1.5C or below, indeed even 2C below the average can't quite be ruled out though that would need some good downward adjustments at the end of the month I feel...

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Yes Greece have had a even larger teapotsmile.gif An Aegean Bartlett to blame

Post 1988 all over again - east mediterranean style this time!

Hi,

It also seems that Greece has had a bit of a heatwave over the last week or so apparently they have just recorded the record February temperature not just for Greece but possibly the whole of Europe of 32.1 degrees C and with 80F plus temps widespread across Greece - that is as high as the UK summer maximum for 2009! Goes to show that thier really is some sort of link between our weather and Greek weather with the conditions being almost the polar opposite at the moment - so if you can't wait until summer to get a tan etc. then Greece is certainly the place to go at the moment!

Luke

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Yeah the CET hasn';t been quite as cold for most of the time (though of course by the standards we've been used to its pretty amazing!) but the snowfall amounts is what really is starting to stand out, I'd imagine this will be generally the snowiest winter since 78-79 and it can't be far from being on a par with that winter in some locations as well now.

As I said earlier we are now going for something of a rare event now, if Feb comes in at or below 2.7C, this will be the first winter since 62-63 to have all three months come in 1.5C or below, indeed even 2C below the average can't quite be ruled out though that would need some good downward adjustments at the end of the month I feel...

An update from me since i last posted in this particular thread.

For the Bristol area it certainly seems to be the coldest winter (with very few days even near to 10 celsius) since '79, although the first 2 weeks of January were the coldest with some daytime temps at or just below freezing. The last 2 weeks don't seem particularly cold, although compared to average mid-Feb temp i guess we're a degree or so below normal (or maybe we've just got used to the cold).

As for snow we've had 3 decent falls of a few inches each time and a couple more days of wet snow falling that settled for a while. So in terms of snow i wouldn't say it's been that memorable compared to 78/79, for example, but certainly favourable compared to last 20 years (except February 09).

On the snow front the one thing that's been missing compared to 78/79, 81/82 and 87 has been the fierce blizzards, with deep powder snow - those blizzards during those winters were particularly memorable. In fact, i think in the winter of 78/79 we had 4 or 5 such blizzards.

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I'm calling this a memorable winter in terms of my personal experience and lifespan the coldest and snowiest I can remember. I will also never forget moving house in the snow and the lorry getting stuck just a few metres away from the house along with a few vans that was begining of January.

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This is now a memorable winter for me after today, 20th day this winter of snow falling + lying here in Cambridgeshire. In December from 9pm on the 17th to midday on the 21st temperatures never got above 0C (Due to Snow Cover). 7 Ice days in a winter is impressive for a low lying place!

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In terms of sustained cold, this winter is now rivalling winter 78/79, on the snow front yes we have done fairly well for days with snow cover but most of thes days fell between the 17th Dec and 14th Jan, since mid Jan we have had few snowfall days and only an inch cover on 3 mornings, not very impressive. Yes a very good winter for cold, but fairly average for snow, apart from the 20th/21st Dec events, nothing special at all. Still this week to come, and March can pack a punch in the snowfall stakes..

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I'm calling this a memorable winter in terms of my personal experience and lifespan the coldest and snowiest I can remember.

Yes, I'd agree with that - I'm 31 and it's definitely the coldest and snowiest winter I remember by a long way. As I posted a while ago, probably in this same thread, I was alive in '79 and '81/82, and I know '82 was snowier here but I was too young to remember it as I was only 3 at the time. We had 15 days of lying snow here in January - the most I'd seen before then was last February when we had 6 days, and before then I only remember snow lying for around 4 days max.

The interesting thing is that this winter may well become a bit of a reference point in future. If we were not to see a winter like this for another 30 years, then I'd be 61 and it would still be the coldest winter I can remember - those that could remember '79 and '81/2 would be in their late 60s and there would be very few who could remember '63 or '47. Of course, history suggests these things run in cycles so we could well be in for some more colder winters, and as one thing we've not had this year is a blast of very cold upper air, like Jan '87, there is still a chance we could record an individual colder month. Having said that, as the stats show in terms of the length of the cold period this winter is now holding its own against the legendary 20th Century winters so I think there is a good chance it could still be the most prolonged cold winter I have experienced by 2040 if not the coldest.

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There must be large parts of the UK that hasn't seen a 10c for well over two months?

How would that compare to 62/63 and 46/47 .

That's must beat all other years in recent times ?.

More snow here today and I would guess 25+ day here of falling snow .

Well I know that in Coventry at least the temperature did not get above even 6c for the two months of January and February 1963- that statistic really will take some beating!

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Here on the edge of the Northumberland Pennines it hasnt got above 5.4 since 16th December 09.

Min temp of -15.3 night and -6.3 day.

Average temp here since 16th of December is nights -4.2 days 1.6.

We have had 42 days of snow cover(I judge a depth of 4" + as cover) and 31 days of snow falling . This includes 33 days of consecutive snow cover 18/12/09-20/1/10.

Max snow depth of 22 inches(55cms).

On the higher fells within view snow has covered every day since 18/12/09.

Thats up to date as of 23/2/10 9.05am with quite a bit more snow forcast this week to come.

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Here's the latest 90 day temp charts that I posted earlier in the month, the very mild November is disappearing out of the 90 day period

Balmy Valentia, a chilly winter there.

tn03953_90.gif

A cold one for Cork

tn03955_90.gif

Dublin, an anomaly of -2.51C?

tn03969_90.gif

Shawbury

tn03414_90.gif

Bournemouth

tn03862_90.gif

Leeming

tn03257_90.gif

Aberdeen

tn03091_90.gif

Belfast

tn03917_90.gif

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/weur_90temp.shtml

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That Dublin one is right. The monthly temperatures and anomalies, against 61-90 average, so far have been December 3.6C (-2.3C), January 1.7 (-3.3C), February to the 22nd, 2.2C (-2.8C). By the end of the month the anomaly will probably be even larger.

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Here on the edge of the Northumberland Pennines it hasnt got above 5.4 since 16th December 09.

Min temp of -15.3 night and -6.3 day.

Average temp here since 16th of December is nights -4.2 days 1.6.

We have had 42 days of snow cover(I judge a depth of 4" + as cover) and 31 days of snow falling . This includes 33 days of consecutive snow cover 18/12/09-20/1/10.

Max snow depth of 22 inches(55cms).

On the higher fells within view snow has covered every day since 18/12/09.

Thats up to date as of 23/2/10 9.05am with quite a bit more snow forcast this week to come.

Quite incredible stats there Tynevalleywinter! I have not recorded daily measurements so can't compare but given my lower altitude, temps will be higher here and max depth of snow was only 31cm.

As has already been said, the remarkable thing with regard to this winter, in this neck of the woods, is the almost total absence of average never mind mild temps. I'd be surprised if this winter is matched for a long long time in this respect. Even in places like the northern US and Canada/Scandanavia, winter cold is usually interupted by periodic mild weather.

Love the snow but wouldn't be unhappy to feel some warm sun on my skin soon!

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Yet another day of falling snow. That has to be more than 20 days now, possibly more than 25. I don't keep those sort of stats but I know that has surpassed any other winter by a country mile that I remember (although I only remember back to the early 00's!).

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I will certainly remember this February for the number of times it has snowed and the lack of times it has actually settled! This winter though, there have been x days with snow here:

December: 4 (21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th)

January: 9 (05th, 06th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 20th, 29th, 31st)

February: 8 (08th, 09th, 10th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 22nd, 23rd)

So not a bad winter for snow falling but considering that, rather disappointing for snow settling. The ones highlighted in bold gave settling snow of >1cm. However, in any normal winter this number of snowfalls would be unprecedented! :lol:

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This is the 13th day out of 23 when sleet or snow has fallen in Norwich this month- quite remarkable. However, most of this month's snowfalls have been marginal and only the one on the 10th delivered more than a dusting on the ground.

There were fewer days of sleet/snow falling in December and January but what did fall had a greater tendency to stick around- 17th-22nd December, 3rd-9th January and 29th/30th January.

Up in Cleadon there were 10 days of sleet/snow falling in December, 14 in January, and there have been 10 so far this February going by reports from the area, but again, in February only one of Cleadon's snowfalls provided more than a dusting, in contrast to the period 17 December-15 January which had at least some snow on the ground throughout, and more than 50% cover at 9am on 23 days out of 30.

Those statistics don't make the winter of 2009/10 unremarkable- most of the winters of 1978-87 had one mild month and two snowy ones, 2009/10 has had one marginal month and two snowy ones, so it still elevates this one above all of those winters bar 1978/79.

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Hi, could anyone tell me the last winter when all three winter months were below the cet average . Apologies if this has allready been answered in this thread .Thanks in advance. Billy

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2008/09 had all three months come in below the 1971-2000 average I believe, though February was only 0.1C below. Using the 1961-90 baseline the last time it happened was in 1990/91, with December and January fractionally below and February well below.

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