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Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?


noggin

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

The top 10 coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1916/17: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/79: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.37C (to 18th Feb provisonally)

1981/82: 2.57C

1940/41: 2.60C

A mean of 5.35C or below is required in the remaining 10 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

8th coldest winter in 115 years and coldest since 1978/79 is now looking like a very good possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading

In my lifetime 1978/9 stands out as the clear winner so far, but I wasn't around in 1962/3. It's always difficult to compare winters, of course, since no two are alike - how do you compare the widespread low temperatures of mid-January 1987 with the persistent cold of February 1986 and the exceptional snow cover of December 1981 and January 2010?

As I see it (naturally, the view depends on where you've been this winter) we're heading for a winter roughly on a par with 1981/82. The CET outcome looks likely to be close to the average for that winter, and total snowfall in my area (in Reading around 45cm from 5 significant falls) looks similar. On the whole the cold has been less pronounced but more prolonged.

Finally, is the (probably) equal coldest and snowiest winter in 30 years historic? Yes, I think so.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like we will be in the top 10 coldest winters then Reef...

Also looks IMO like we are highly likely to come in below 3C with the Feb CET so thats probably 2 winter months below 3C in 10s...2 more then done in the whole of the 00s!

So quite an impressive winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

What was Dec's CET ?

If only the cold had kicked in that bit earlier or the cold in Dec had persisted in England like it did in Scotland, if it had this winter may have even been close to being classed in the same category as 47 and 63.

Its snowing and lying again here which will probably add another day of lying snow tomorrow. I see the midlands saw a decent snow event last night. This winter keeps producing the goods and theres still plenty of potential winter weather left yet !

There has been a few good snowfall events in late Feb / early March up here in the recent past. Feb/March 2001 produced a good cold spell, on Feb 28 2004 we had 1ft of snow in Gateshead and the late Febs / early Marchs of 05 and 06 produced good snow events here.

After the winter we've had I wouldn't bet against seeing another good snow event or two before the cold weather's done.

Anyway I'm off to enjoy the fruits of this cold and snowy winter with a weeks skiing in Scotland next week :rofl: .

Edited by Snow White
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

So that's a sub-3C winter quarter nailed then (barring a completely-out-of-the-blue why-the-hell-didn't-the-models-pick-this-up?! Bartlett High).

I have to say I was expecting some more moderately cold winters before a significantly cold one finally showed its face - last winter was certainly a taster of things to come, but it looks like we've not only skipped 95/96 or 90/91 but have also bypassed 84/85, 85/86 and likely even 81/82 in returning directly to old-school stylee winter.

I still maintain that it's not historic: if I'm lucky enough to have grandkids in the future, will I tell them long stories about this winter? I doubt it, unless we somehow end up with nothing but mild winters for generations to come (surely not). But it's been bloody brilliant all the same - and if the models/forecasts for the next few days come off, it's going to be even better. smile.gif

Edited by AderynCoch
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

What was Dec's CET ?

If only the cold had kicked in that bit earlier or the cold in Dec had persisted in England like it did in Scotland, if it had this winter may have even been close to being classed in the same category as 47 and 63.

December 2009 came in at 3.1C - rather cold, but not exceptionally so. December 1946 was also 3.1C; December 1962 was 1.8C.

62/63 was remarkable for a virtually unbroken freeze lasting from Boxing Day through to the beginning of March. 46/47 was a late starter, but when it did start (about 20th January) it lasted right through to the middle of March.

This winter has been very good, but it's just not the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

I think it is amazing to get the sort of winter that we have had in many ways, especially when, just before last winter (2008-09) Ian Brown was arguing that a 1995-96 style winter was no longer possible - and this winter seems like it is going to beat that one and probably 1981/82 too making this the coldest winter for the British Isles since 1979 - just proves how wrong Ian Brown was all I need is now is a 2006 style summer and then 2010 will really be a good year for weather fans!

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

December 2009 came in at 3.1C - rather cold, but not exceptionally so. December 1946 was also 3.1C; December 1962 was 1.8C.

Scotland average temperature for December 2009 0.3c December 1962 2.7c...it's just not the same.

December CET 3.1c

January CEt 1.4c

December 1946 3.1c

January 1947 2.2c

It's just not the same.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

Scotland average temperature for December 2009 0.3c December 1962 2.7c...it's just not the same.

That's quite a difference! Surprised me I must say.

What about January and February?

I'm well aware of how in Scotland this winter has been even more exceptional than farther south - but is it really on the same scale as '63 or '47? That's not to say a winter has to be as noteworthy as those two to be impressive.

December CET 3.1c

January CEt 1.4c

December 1946 3.1c

January 1947 2.2c

It's just not the same.

February 1963 = -0.7C

February 1947 = -1.9C

February 2010 = ?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

By the way just a heads up for another rather impressive stat to watch out for.

If Feb can get a CET of 2.7 or under then it'll be the first winter since 62-63 to have all three winter months 1.5C below the running average of the time, 2.2C would give us our first set of winter months 2C below normal in the same amount of time...

This adds yet more weight again to the idea that this winter will be historic...and IMO to get that stat would be quite amazing IMO, considering where we were in 07-08!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

That's quite a difference! Surprised me I must say.

What about January and February?

I'm well aware of how in Scotland this winter has been even more exceptional than farther south - but is it really on the same scale as '63 or '47? That's not to say a winter has to be as noteworthy as those two to be impressive.

February 1963 = -0.7C

February 1947 = -1.9C

February 2010 = ?

On the same scale up to February - yes. BUT to equal the overall winter lowest average temperature here, we need a month of 0.15C for February, which is a little implausible though not impossible given a run of ice days next week. However February itself has not been as cold or snowy as even last year up to this point for most of us, though perhaps less so for those in the northeast, I suspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

I think it is amazing to get the sort of winter that we have had in many ways, especially when, just before last winter (2008-09) Ian Brown was arguing that a 1995-96 style winter was no longer possible - and this winter seems like it is going to beat that one and probably 1981/82 too making this the coldest winter for the British Isles since 1979 - just proves how wrong Ian Brown was all I need is now is a 2006 style summer and then 2010 will really be a good year for weather fans!

Ian at the start of January admitted that his forecast went bust but I think he needs to extend this and admit that it went bust because his theory is flawed. Here are excerpts from his forecast for this winter

Since 1987, we have seen a major shift in global weather patterns, which for a variety of reasons have impacted on the UK as much as anywhere in the world. Global warming has shifted the hemispheric pressure belts further North – warmer seas have meant more energy and forcing in the jet stream – the Polar Front Jet (PFJ) has been shifted ever further North as sea ice retreats and recedes at Northern latitudes.

Well you only have to look at the current jet stream charts to see how far south the jet stream is.

Last winter, which overall produced average temperatures, will, I think come to be seen as something of a one-off in terms of the long term trend. The winter was a Hale winter, a 22/23 year cycle related to Solar activities and associated with colder winters in Europe. In the christmas pudding, virtually all of our prolonged cold spells come from mid-latitude high pressure and last winter was no exception :-

http://www.wzkarten....00120081225.gif

This is essentially a displaced Azores High which creates an inverted cold, particularly for England and Wales as the jet is to the North of the UK. As well as this, pressure remained low over mainland Europe despite much of the usual forcing that we see in a even larger teapot. The fact remains, however, that last winter was much the mildest Hale winter seen in the cycle for more than 150 years.

Personally, I thought this was a cop out of an excuse to blame it on the Hale winter phenomenon and then to say it was the mildest Hale Winter. That "trump" card has been used. You can't use it for this winter and even if you did, how do you explain last winter? Ian tried to paper over the cracks that were evidently showing after last winter.

There is no question there has been northerly blocking this winter, that the jet stream is way south. The cracks from last winter are huge this winter.

I'm not sure this winter could be described as "historic" but I would say certainly "notable"

Some winters remain in the memory others disappear, I mean how often is 1940-41 talked about?

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Given that I would rate February as a near miss as regards A really cold snowy month then I would agree the winter will be remembered but would not imo be regarded as historic.We still have about a week of cold to get through this month (going by 00z) and should we be favoured with a very cold March(perhaps favoured is not the right word here)then I might reconsider but as of now compared to severe winters of the past it is close but no cigar.

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

I believe parts of Scotland were down to -15C last night which follows some low minima from throughout the week. Aberdeen received 4 inches of snow yesterday, the midlands had a good snow event thursday and here in Gateshead we have a covering this morning and have had at least a partial covering most days this week.

There was snow on the ground at the start of the month, the south east did well off the easterly around the 8th and even slightly higher areas around here had a good covering. This month theres been many days with falling snow if not lying and theres been no really mild days. In other winters this month may have even been labelled 'snowy'.

With the potential for more snow next week and no mild air really on the horizon, this winter in my eyes will certainly be 'historic' in the fact that it proves cold winters are still possible, which I admit even I was in doubt about. With last winter also being on the cold side and summer Arctic sea ice increasing the past two years hopefully the trend has been reversed and we will start to see more winters like this.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Many of my non-weather geek friends have joined the Facebook group "2010: The year I became bored of snow". I think that alone tells you how notable this winter has been!

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Posted
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy weather in winter. Dry and warm in summer.
  • Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear - 320ft ASL

Many of my non-weather geek friends have joined the Facebook group "2010: The year I became bored of snow". I think that alone tells you how notable this winter has been!

I'll never get sick of snow...

Hopefully next winter we will see a truly historic winter like 47 or 63, not a memorable winter or a 'modern historic winter' but a truly great winter up with there with the heavyweights of yesteryear.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Some winters remain in the memory others disappear, I mean how often is 1940-41 talked about?

I think like with the summers it's often individual standout events that make them remembered, rather than persistence. For instance the winter of 1950/51 often isn't talked about, despite it being the snowiest of the century in some upland areas, and probably one of the top 5 in many lowland areas.

A spell of weather is more likely to be remembered if it primarily hits heavily populated areas of the country- hence the way 1947 is widely remembered as a remarkable year for weather but much less so 1955, which in Scotland eclipsed 1947 on numerous counts.

Re. the "bored of snow" group, this comment from it is quite interesting!

2010... The year I became bored of snow. Snow incoming across the east coast of the UK tonight :lol:
Note the :( smiley...

I haven't joined that particular group. This winter has illustrated that I can get bored of dull snowy weather, but mainly because of the cloud cover rather than the snow- but bright snowy weather on the other hand, seemingly not!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

I think like with the summers it's often individual standout events that make them remembered, rather than persistence. For instance the winter of 1950/51 often isn't talked about, despite it being the snowiest of the century in some upland areas, and probably one of the top 5 in many lowland areas.

A spell of weather is more likely to be remembered if it primarily hits heavily populated areas of the country- hence the way 1947 is widely remembered as a remarkable year for weather but much less so 1955, which in Scotland eclipsed 1947 on numerous counts.

Re. the "bored of snow" group, this comment from it is quite interesting!

Note the :) smiley...

I haven't joined that particular group. This winter has illustrated that I can get bored of dull snowy weather, but mainly because of the cloud cover rather than the snow- but bright snowy weather on the other hand, seemingly not!

For my location, I haven't had any outstanding depths of snow. But I have had at least 7 or 8 occasions where I have had, say, at least an inch. That in itself is unusual compared to recent years. Although hopefully this week I will get one big dumping to finish this fantastic winter.

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Posted
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL
  • Location: W Leeds 164m ASL

For my location, I haven't had any outstanding depths of snow. But I have had at least 7 or 8 occasions where I have had, say, at least an inch. That in itself is unusual compared to recent years. Although hopefully this week I will get one big dumping to finish this fantastic winter.

IMO yes definitely.

After snow albeit light Wed & Thurs nite Ive added 3 more mornings where snow has lay on my garden. Possibly edging now towards 45 maybe 50 days of ( some ) snow cover atleast since beginning of winter ie Dec 09.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

IMO yes definitely.

After snow albeit light Wed & Thurs nite Ive added 3 more mornings where snow has lay on my garden. Possibly edging now towards 45 maybe 50 days of ( some ) snow cover atleast since beginning of winter ie Dec 09.

Incredible stats. Our Midlands Today forecaster the other day said 26 out of the 49 days so far in 2010 have had falling snow in our region - remarkable.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

45 days now with a fair more than half lying snow.

39 with snow falling.

The last snowiest winter I recorded 95/96 48 days with lying snow upto today but this year at this stage has overtaken with snow falling at 36days.

And still the extra snow from last week keeps refreezing,this winter is starting to stick out.

And next week lows to come on a S-ly track looks fascinating.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleethorpes 20m (65ft) ASL, NE Lincolnshire
  • Location: Cleethorpes 20m (65ft) ASL, NE Lincolnshire

Here in Cleethorpes on the coast, this winter has been the best since Jan 87, :rolleyes: had up to 6 cm staying for 8 days, and ice days for the first time since Jan 87, got 2cm today

for me 2009/2010 winter will be historic in my eyes.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Another covering of snow overnight! Just adds to the growing list of "coverings" I have had this winter. Still lacking one big dump though which is slightly disappointing. If we had one event which gave the depths of Feb 07 then it will make this winter go from fantastic to truly awesome.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

Yes I think it has been a fantastic winter it does look like that this winter will become officially the coldest since 1978/79 which is really good for cold and snow lovers. Also we know that it has been a colder than average winter not just for the UK and Northwestern Europe but also Eastern Europe, China, the Eastern part of the US and the Midwestern US but is it true that the Pacific Northwest of the US (which also includes Western Canada where of course the Winter Olympics are being hosted) has had a very mild winter? I thought I read that Seattle has had a record mild January is that correct? Have the conditions in Seattle this winter been similar to what we get in our midler more zonal type winters with LP after LP piling in bringing constant wind and rain? Also have Greece been milder than average considering that they often experience colder than average temperatures when we are milder than average?

Luke

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