Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

[johnholmes]

Not at all CM-stats do help prove the point though rather like showing charts to back up a point of view in the model thread.

It is as even the 'true' bitter winters were but to a lesser extent down to locality. I simply think that when we post, and we make it clear that we are posting about our particular area, then that point of view should not appear to be 'wrong' as several of us feel you come across in your posts.

My area is, in spite of February being nothing like as cold or snowy as the previous two months, is the coldest, snowiest winter since 1981-82.

[Rollo]

Not at all CM-stats do help prove the point though rather like showing charts to back up a point of view in the model thread.

It is as even the 'true' bitter winters were but to a lesser extent down to locality. I simply think that when we post, and we make it clear that we are posting about our particular area, then that point of view should not appear to be 'wrong' as several of us feel you come across in your posts.

My area is, in spite of February being nothing like as cold or snowy as the previous two months, is the coldest, snowiest winter since 1981-82.

Good morning John,regrettably I have not kept records of this winter but my overall impression is (as of now) that it will be remembered for the lack of any mild incursions between the cold and rather cold spells-a lot of people tend to think back to the snowfalls (natural I suppose) rather than the constant low tempratures and frequent frosts. What really stands out to me (maybe because I do not like strong winds) is the lack of gales,long may that last.

[noggin]

as for snow we have had one country wide snow event..which effected some areas more than others and thats it...the rest have been regional events with some areas seeing very little..i mean the south west quarter of the country apart from the 6/7th Jan has had very little in the way of snow.

I'm in the South West and can confirm that my area has had 3 major snowfalls.......one before Christmas and two in January, a week apart. The snow remained on the ground for a week or more each time, this is a very memorable Winter here. There have also been smaller falls and flurries galore.

[stewfox]

Not at all CM-stats do help prove the point though rather like showing charts to back up a point of view in the model thread.

It is as even the 'true' bitter winters were but to a lesser extent down to locality. I simply think that when we post, and we make it clear that we are posting about our particular area, then that point of view should not appear to be 'wrong' as several of us feel you come across in your posts.

My area is, in spite of February being nothing like as cold or snowy as the previous two months, is the coldest, snowiest winter since 1981-82.

This is a valid point and perhaps people when they post 'it's been nothing special' they clarify for my locale and whether that locale is across the pond or someone's back garden in Jersey.

People often refer to 95/96 winter. For me Dec 95 was cold (I was dating a new girl and we spent most of December walking around London at night it was freezing) however the over all winter wasn't memorable for me nor was the girl to be fair.

2009/10 winter Historic for Scotland, defacto yes.

Rest of UK depends on your location, memory and bias.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I'm in the South West and can confirm that my area has had 3 major snowfalls.......one before Christmas and two in January, a week apart. The snow remained on the ground for a week or more each time, this is a very memorable Winter here. There have also been smaller falls and flurries galore.

Hi Val,

Whatever the remaining couple of weeks of official winter bring, it has been a very memorable and significant winter. I would only refrain from calling it historic because it has not quite attained the intensity of 1947 or 1963 but as these are in long term historical terms very rare and outlier winters anyway, then this is hardly any real criticism!

At the very least, it has finally put an end to the myths long expressed on these threads about the existence of genuinely very cold winters still occuring in the UK.

Taking into account the changes in cyclical trends that have contributed to the warmer years, overall, in the last couple of decades, then I think the changes we have seen to these cycles, including the sun etc over the last couple of years or so are a sign of things to come and with it the return in frequency of much colder blocked winters once again. As in any winter cooling trend though, there will of course still be a few milder winters

Edited February 16, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[noggin]

At the very least, it has finally put an end to the myths long expressed on these threads about the existence of genuinely very cold winters still occuring in the UK.

Taking into account the changes in cyclical trends that have contributed to the warmer years, overall, in the last couple of decades, then I think the changes we have seen to these cycles, including the sun etc over the last couple of years or so are a sign of things to come and with it the return in frequency of much colder blocked winters once again. As in any winter cooling trend though, there will of course still be a few milder winters

Hi, Tamara.

It has, hasn't it!

Yes, I agree with you re Winters going forward. IMHO, solar cycles and climate shift are what have brought us these past two snowy Winters and the two cooler Summers. I can only see a continuation of this trend for the next couple of/few decades. I am sure that, at some point in the future the trend will be back to warming, but for now I see cooling. To me, cycles seem to be of about 20/30 years. Well, that's what my tea leaves tell me!

Here's to more snow. A repeat of last February's effort will do me nicely!

Now that's memorable in itself.....two Winters in a row with good snow!

[Thundery wintry showers]

At the very least, it has finally put an end to the myths long expressed on these threads about the existence of genuinely very cold winters still occuring in the UK.

Taking into account the changes in cyclical trends that have contributed to the warmer years, overall, in the last couple of decades, then I think the changes we have seen to these cycles, including the sun etc over the last couple of years or so are a sign of things to come and with it the return in frequency of much colder blocked winters once again. As in any winter cooling trend though, there will of course still be a few milder winters

You might be surprised to see me say this, but I think you stand a decent chance of being right here. Certainly, the northerly tracking jet and positive NAO/AO trend of the 1990s and early to mid 2000s was too strong for it to be possible to explain it through global warming alone- various papers (peer-reviewed and all) have repeatedly reached this conclusion. And there are, indeed, signs of that trend reversing, which could mean an era of relatively cold winters in north-western Europe caused by an increased amount of blocking at high latitudes, even if the globe as a whole continues to warm up. And as we've conclusively seen this winter, we haven't had anywhere near enough global warming to prevent northern blocking from translating to cold and snowy winters.

It's only a possibility rather than a given, but it certainly can't be ruled out.

[kold weather]

Very interesting TWS and whilst flirting with climate change debate, I think the fact we've seen 3 'lesser' summers with the jet rather close or just to the south of the UK as well as an ok winter in 08-09 as well certainly suggests something could be up...I wonder whether we are getting towards the back end of the current warm phase in the Atlantic synoptically speaking...fits in with the PDO change around, the Atlantic tends to foolow 10-15 years later...

[AderynCoch]

It's clear now, with this winter panning out the way it has, that the consistently above-average temperatures of the past two decades or so have been at least partly due to luck (good or bad, depending on your perspective). Whilst the Earth has definitely warmed post-1987, the near-total disappearance of winter after the numerous cold episodes of the 80s was just too freaky to be blamed on global warming alone. I've also noticed on occasion how some parts of the world have been hit by unusually cold weather patterns (Winter 2007/8 across much of Asia springs to mind), and that we've just been missing out. Having said that, after the extraordinary period of warmth from mid-2006 through to April 2007 even I was left wondering just what the hell was happening to our climate!

If one month recently has shown me that the potent cold is still there, it's not January 2010 but January 2009 - though the cold easterly spell that month never quite reached severe level here, a bullet of extremely cold air had just failed to reach us, delivering temperatures below -20C as far west as Belgium. Parts of eastern Germany saw record lows I believe. Clearly the intense cold was still around - it just wasn't around us. This winter it has been.

As for whether or not we're beginning a cooling trend with severe winters becoming more likely again, I have absolutely no idea.

Edited February 16, 2010 by AderynCoch

[ScottSnow]

It's clear now, with this winter panning out the way it has, that the consistently above-average temperatures of the past two decades or so have been at least partly due to luck (good or bad, depending on your perspective). Whilst the Earth has definitely warmed post-1987, the near-total disappearance of winter after the numerous cold episodes of the 80s was just too freaky to be blamed on global warming alone. I've also noticed on occasion how some parts of the world have been hit by unusually cold weather patterns (Winter 2007/8 across much of Asia springs to mind), and that we've just been missing out. Having said that, after the extraordinary period of warmth from mid-2006 through to April 2007 even I was left wondering just what the hell was happening to our climate!

If one month recently has shown me that the potent cold is still there, it's not January 2010 but January 2009 - though the cold easterly spell that month never quite reached severe level here, a bullet of extremely cold air had just failed to reach us, delivering temperatures below -20C as far west as Belgium. Parts of eastern Germany saw record lows I believe. Clearly the intense cold was still around - it just wasn't around us. This winter it has been.

As for whether or not we're beginning a cooling trend with severe winters becoming more likely again, I have absolutely no idea.

I'm almost sure Jan 2010 has been a lot colder in Germany, Belgium etc than 2009. In fact this winter so far has been a lot more severe for northern Europe than winter 2008/09.

[Bristawl Si]

I'm in the South West and can confirm that my area has had 3 major snowfalls.......one before Christmas and two in January, a week apart. The snow remained on the ground for a week or more each time, this is a very memorable Winter here. There have also been smaller falls and flurries galore.

Sorry Noggin to disagree. Pretty good compared to the last 20 years, but the severity of the blizzards in winters 78/79, 81/82, 87 and a couple of other 80s winters made the snow this winter seem like a dusting!

We've had no biting easterlies, driving snow, 24 hour snow events, temps at minus 2 or 3 during daytime snowfall.

The severe cold of the 1st week of January and lying snow thru' 1st 2 weeks of January now that's different and the fact we've had no days about 10 celsius since early December now that's pretty rare in my lifetime.

So overall a decent winter, but not 'historic' IMO.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'll be updating my 2009/10 UK snow index over the coming days- the targets are, if memory serves me correctly, 1985/86 (45), 1984/85 (47) and 1981/82 (49).

Note that like with all indexes my index has its limitations, it does not take into account duration of snow cover or temperature, just the number, intensity and coverage of snow events over the country. Perhaps the most "complete" measure of the coldness and snowiness of a given winter over the UK as a whole would be to apply Kevin's Manchester index to a UK-wide average, but substituting the "days of sleet/snow falling" with some means of combining the other factors with my snow index. I'll have to check, but I think at least some of the relevant variables might be available for the UK as a whole to the general public from the Met Office's website. A winter with low temperatures and numerous frosts as measured by Kevin's index, plus a high number of intense widespread snow events as per my index, would be almost certain to have persistent snow cover.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I believe the UK-wide average of the data used for Kevin's winter index is freely available to the public here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html

I think even the summer index could be stabbed at although I think the original Manchester index uses rain days (>0.2mm) not wet days (>1mm).

Would be an interesting experiment to see how the values from his index compare with my snow index values.

[noggin]

Sorry Noggin to disagree. Pretty good compared to the last 20 years, but the severity of the blizzards in winters 78/79, 81/82, 87 and a couple of other 80s winters made the snow this winter seem like a dusting!

We've had no biting easterlies, driving snow, 24 hour snow events, temps at minus 2 or 3 during daytime snowfall.

The severe cold of the 1st week of January and lying snow thru' 1st 2 weeks of January now that's different and the fact we've had no days about 10 celsius since early December now that's pretty rare in my lifetime.

So overall a decent winter, but not 'historic' IMO.

Could you please clarify, Bristle boy? Are you disagreeing that it's been memorable or are you disagreeing that we have had 3 good snowfalls? Or is it the question in the thread title? I am not sure, fom your opening sentence!

[Bristawl Si]

Could you please clarify, Bristle boy? Are you disagreeing that it's been memorable or are you disagreeing that we have had 3 good snowfalls? Or is it the question in the thread title? I am not sure, fom your opening sentence!

I wouldn't call this Winter 'memorable' in terms of my lifetime and wouldn't call our snowfalls 'major', more like 'decent'.

Certainly 'decent' on both counts compared to last 15-20 years. Prolonged cold (2 months now) with no real mild, only less cold interludes, yes certainly. 2 or 3 snowfalls in a mildish winter was not uncommon 'back in the day'.

I'm still bugged by the absence of a Channel Low event, though - not uncommon in The South west and West in last 100 years (although not in last 20).

Regards

[johnholmes]

Yes, I believe the UK-wide average of the data used for Kevin's winter index is freely available to the public here:

http://www.metoffice...sets/index.html

I think even the summer index could be stabbed at although I think the original Manchester index uses rain days (>0.2mm) not wet days (>1mm).

Would be an interesting experiment to see how the values from his index compare with my snow index values.

yes I'm doing my own winter index(using Kevins formula) for this area-done it for Cantley 1997-to date-and obviously 'historic' in that period for here.

Currently ploughing through the 1943-1995 RAF Finningley data.

Its looking, unless it turns milder in the next 2 weeks, that this winter is going to rank 6th in over 60 years of data for this area. So fairly unusual, maybe historic.

Another thing I'm doing is comparing the top 6 or 7 winters in % terms of how much departure from the then normal each winter shows. Again this winter is looking way ahead in that method, on most parameters, of even 78-79 and 81-82 but nothing to compare to 62-63 or 46-47.

Aren't stats fascinating?

[Thundery wintry showers]

For Cleadon, using Kevin's index, we have the following stats for winter quarters back to 1993:

1993 44

1994 90

1995 41

1996 116

1997 69

1998 17

1999 50

2000 41

2001 85

2002 60

2003 62

2004 70

2005 39

2006 46

2007 29

2008 33

2009 73

2010 (provisional) 168

Thus clearly well ahead of all of the other winters.

Applying Kevin's index to the UK average is tricky because the Met Office doesn't include data for days of snow falling and lying. Thus, I have two columns for the winters since 1962 (the most recent winter for which the MetO freely provides air frost data)- one for (10*no. of air frosts / mean max temp), and one which includes my winter snow index values as a substitute for days of snow falling/lying.

1962 65 133

1963 259 460

1964 63 105

1965 82 161

1966 64 149

1967 40 72

1968 82 158

1969 85 173

1970 81 171

1971 44 73

1972 35 65

1973 43 84

1974 33 65

1975 24 51

1976 41 73

1977 91 164

1978 65 143

1979 151 316

1980 55 106

1981 59 118

1982 88 187

1983 60 115

1984 55 108

1985 87 176

1986 95 187

1987 75 141

1988 37 70

1989 16 36

1990 24 48

1991 82 147

1992 43 62

1993 37 69

1994 55 110

1995 34 72

1996 84 158

1997 63 111

1998 26 51

1999 35 69

2000 37 64

2001 60 112

2002 39 69

2003 48 78

2004 46 84

2005 32 70

2006 47 95

2007 23 44

2008 33 63

2009 67 125

2010 (provisional) 109 218

Conclusion: this winter over the UK as a whole is provisionally the severest since 1979, just ahead of 1982. My winter snow index currently has 2009/10 1 point behind 1981/82 but unless the UK somehow manages to see no snow events at all for the rest of the season, it's going to overtake 1982 by that measure as well.

Edited February 16, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers
originally used wrong formula for 1st column, now corrected

[kold weather]

Yep I suspect probably mid 50s or maybe even high 50s is possible TWS on your snow index depending on what Spring can do as well, certainly this upcoming week will take us into the 50s I'd imagine. 78-79 is probably just out of reach unless we have a snowy spring as well.

By the way, do you know what 46-47 and 62-63 would have got with your snow index?

[Thundery wintry showers]

My snow index goes back as far as the winter of 1946/47, which was the snowiest winter with a score of 78. Next up was 1978/79 with 64, and then 1950/51 with 54 and 1962/63 with 53. The reason for the relatively low 1963 score is that 1963 was more notable for persistence of snow cover rather than a large number of substantial snow events. 1954/55 (51) is also ahead of this winter so far.

We would need a total of 17 points' worth of snow events from here to overtake 1979. We have the rest of February and the spring to go. Looking at the "spring snow index" totals I derived about a week ago, and thinking of mid-late Feb snow events off the top of my head, I think this may have been achieved in 1947, 1955, 1958, 1962, 1965, 1970, 1979, and 2006. There were near approaches in 1987 and 1995, both of which totalled 16 from 16 Feb onwards.

[LomondSnowstorm]

My snow index goes back as far as the winter of 1946/47, which was the snowiest winter with a score of 78. Next up was 1978/79 with 64, and then 1950/51 with 54 and 1962/63 with 53. The reason for the relatively low 1963 score is that 1963 was more notable for persistence of snow cover rather than a large number of substantial snow events. 1954/55 (51) is also ahead of this winter so far.

We would need a total of 17 points' worth of snow events from here to overtake 1979. We have the rest of February and the spring to go. Looking at the "spring snow index" totals I derived about a week ago, and thinking of mid-late Feb snow events off the top of my head, I think this may have been achieved in 1947, 1955, 1958, 1962, 1965, 1970, 1979, and 2006. There were near approaches in 1987 and 1995, both of which totalled 16 from 16 Feb onwards.

An '06 style late February and March is not totally out of the question, with potential for major frontal snow across central and northern Britain in the next week or two with no immediate sign of a return to milder weather.

[kold weather]

So it seems quite probable that we will end up with the 3nd snowiest winter and a possible shot at the 2nd snowiest IF the spring does turn out to be fairly cold and snowy, thats really impressive it has to be said!

Still thats one more piece of evidence which shows why this has been a historic winter, I happen to think people who don't think it is has something of the rose tinted glasses effect going on with regards to memory of previous winters, there can be no doubt that whilst other winters may have had colder weekly periods (Jan 87 is a good example) for a sustained period of 30 days only a few such periods have beaten the cold spell this winter since 78-79...that on top of what does seem to have been a very snowy winter (and IMO a very well spread out snowy winter as well for that matter...most places have seen at least one decent fall) also adds weight.

[LomondSnowstorm]

So it seems quite probable that we will end up with the 3nd snowiest winter and a possible shot at the 2nd snowiest IF the spring does turn out to be fairly cold and snowy, thats really impressive it has to be said!

Still thats one more piece of evidence which shows why this has been a historic winter, I happen to think people who don't think it is has something of the rose tinted glasses effect going on with regards to memory of previous winters, there can be no doubt that whilst other winters may have had colder weekly periods (Jan 87 is a good example) for a sustained period of 30 days only a few such periods have beaten the cold spell this winter since 78-79...that on top of what does seem to have been a very snowy winter (and IMO a very well spread out snowy winter as well for that matter...most places have seen at least one decent fall) also adds weight.

True. Even my grandfather, who was a great one for talking about how incredibly cold and snowy previous winters were up to the late 80s, said at the end of December that this would rate at least in his top three coldest winters, and that it was also the earliest severe spell he had seen with the exception of '81. Not only that, but I think the rest of the winter (post 10th-13th January) has been reasonable by my standards in terms of cold, with the predominant daytime conditions being either 4-5C with sunshine or 3-4C with cloud and drizzle/sleet. A covering of an inch was forgotten about also, along with a few dustings from the northerly (Fife is usually sheltered from northerlies which explains why this meant Aberdeen and Newcastle were hammered with snow from that) while northern Scotland is currently seeing what would normally be regarded as a fairly major snowfall.

[West is Best]

I'm still bugged by the absence of a Channel Low event, though - not uncommon in The South west and West in last 100 years (although not in last 20).

Regards

Remarkably it could be argued that the reason is the jet has been too far south . A channel low is a synoptically marginal event for the UK. Synoptically this has been a much less marginal winter.

Empirically, quantitatively, this has been an historically cold winter. In CET terms it will be the coldest for 20+ years, and possibly since 1978/9. In some ways the most 'impressive' feature has been the consistent absence of mild: it has remained relentlessly chilly.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Indices

1962-63: 501

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 175 up to 16th of February

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1950-51: 146

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1955-56: 136

1954-55: 132

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1953-54: 87

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1957-58: 79

1951-52: 78

1993-94: 78

1958-59: 77

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1956-57: 43

1992-93: 43

1949-50: 42

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

[kold weather]

Empirically, quantitatively, this has been an historically cold winter. In CET terms it will be the coldest for 20+ years, and possibly since 1978/9. In some ways the most 'impressive' feature has been the consistent absence of mild: it has remained relentlessly chilly.

Yeah its quite impressive how even the so called milder days only just managed to get above average, despite having synoptics that seemingly would have given days above 7C in other winters we've not managed a single day above that since the first 1/3rd of December.

Still this winter is a mammoth victory for those who have been saying just such a winter was still possible, I'm sure there were people out there who said cold winters were no longer possible and even some of the more moderate people on this issue believed that to get a winter as cold as say 95-96 was our bottom base, thats been very much blown out of the water now...a true 80s style winter is still well within reach if everything sets up nicely...