Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

[thevalley]

This winter will be classed as a classic winter purely for its constant cold . In Biggin Hill since early December-- I have recorded for one day only a high of 7.8c which is remarkable for the South( North Downs). In December- 10 days of lying snow- January- 11 days of snow (Freezing days at least 10 days)

. Even in February which is yet to deliver a snow event apart from East Kent there has been slight coverings of snow for 5 mornings . This morning we had 3 to 4 cms of lying snow. In the seventies and eighties in a cold winter we would experience a severe spell which when broken it seemed to take an age for the next cold spell and max temps went a lot higher than this winter in any mild spell. -This winter constant cool to very cold. As I type this from my Bromley Kent office (light snow is falling) . In 10 years time we maybe using 2009/2010 as bench mark for a cold winter but of course 47 and 63 never to be forgotten but those winters are really extreme even going back 500 years .

Biggin Hill Kent (19 miles from Central London height 650ft)

(basic records from my very cheap weather station) Please dont tear my records to pieces)

December 10th -February 12th

Max 7.8c

Min(- 9.1c)

Low Max (-2.5c)

High Min 2.8c

snow days 26 (snow falling)

Jan( 6 freezing days)-remarkable considering snow depth)

Max snow depth 19cm

February to remain cool to cold - March could still bring several surprises with spectacular short lived snow events.

If you like cold then this winter ticks all the boxes::unsure:

Edited February 12, 2010 by thevalley

[Nick L]

Yup, this winter probably won't be remembered for the depth of cold (although it has been very cold), but more for the total lack of anything mild - a far cry from recent winters.

[Snowyowl9]

There was a lack of mild in winter 2005/06 too,very little in the way of SW winds.

[reef]

Now the adjusted January figure is finally in, we now have a better idea where this winter stands in recent times.

The top 10 coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1916/17: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/79: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.36C (to 11th Feb provisonally)

1981/82: 2.57C

1940/41: 2.60C

A mean of 4.14C or below is required in the remaining 17 days of winter to stay in the top 10 in the last 115 years.

[Weather-history]

A very notable feature about this winter is how supressed maxima have been. In Manchester, we haven't recorded a double figure maximum since the 9th of December, just over 9 weeks ago

The highest daily CET maximum for January was 8.1C, you have to go back to 1963 to find a lower highest CET daily maximum for January

Only the Januarys of 1895, 1897 and 1941 besides 1963 had lower highest CET daily maxima than January 2010

Edited February 13, 2010 by Mr_Data

[damianslaw]

A very notable feature about this winter is how supressed maxima have been. In Manchester, we haven't recorded a double figure maximum since the 9th of December, just over 9 weeks ago

The highest daily CET maximum for January was 8.1C, you have to go back to 1963 to find a lower highest CET daily maximum for January

Only the Januarys of 1895, 1897 and 1941 besides 1963 had lower highest CET daily maxima than January 2010

I seem to recall many places had to wait until late March in 2006 to see their first 10 degree of the year - worth checking the stats on this, winter 05/06 though nowhere near as cold as this one was consistently cool with no real sustained mild weather thanks to an equally very quiet atlantic. The period from late feb to around the 20th March was persistant in its coldness relative to the time of year.

[Snowyowl9]

I seem to recall many places had to wait until late March in 2006 to see their first 10 degree of the year - worth checking the stats on this, winter 05/06 though nowhere near as cold as this one was consistently cool with no real sustained mild weather thanks to an equally very quiet atlantic. The period from late feb to around the 20th March was persistant in its coldness relative to the time of year.

Made just one 10c exactly on february 13th 2006, the lowest feb max since 1986 was achieved(lets see what this month does now),this winter just 9.2c highest back in december.

Mind just checked the highest max in february 1986 and that was just 3.8c a very tall order for that to happen anytime again very quickly.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[johnholmes]

This is the second year since starting obs Jan 1st 1997 that I've not recorded a 10+ max in January. The only other year was 2001 with 9.7C-this year it was 9.4C, so strictly speaking its not occurred before.

The last 10+C this winter was 9 December with 10.3C

the mean temp from 1 Dec-13 Feb is 2.7C

Can't see any major change before the end of February to my temperatures though looking at the models so far.

cold rather than mild seems the order of the day really.

I have not checked recently but the number of frosts, snow falling and lying must be pretty near to a record since I started-probably is and back into the 80's of the RAF Finningley record. So here, whatever happens in the second half of February its been an unusual winter.

Edited February 13, 2010 by johnholmes

[kold weather]

There was a lack of mild in winter 2005/06 too,very little in the way of SW winds.

Yeah the Atlantic was rather slack that winter, seemed to carry on through to the summer.

The main difference this winter to that one is this winter has had a real potent cold spell...

We've had a 30 day period that has come out around 0C (never thought back in November 09 we'd be saying that!) and a proper countrywide snow event with some places seeing exceptional snowfall (and having seen it myself, it was impressive I've gotta say!) as well as several large regional events, plus thats not even mentioning how exceptional that spell was for Scotland...

[MP-R]

Yes, 2005-2006 had very few above 10C days here: 4 in December, 1 in January, and 3 in February. All of these were in very short intervals of the Atlantic being active.

Although is winter does not stick out by any means, I also noticed from my records that there weren't many 10C days or above in January 2004 despite it being an active Atlantic-driven month. Considering the amount of Atlantic air in that month, only five days made it above 10C.

[Weather-history]

I seem to recall many places had to wait until late March in 2006 to see their first 10 degree of the year - worth checking the stats on this,

No, a lot of places had reached 10C before March 2006. I think you are thinking of 15C. What was notable about that period was how few times maxima got above 10C from mid November 2005 to late March 2006.

Philip Eden in his analysis of January 2010 noted that the number of stations that recorded a double digit maximum at least once were the fewest for January since 1979.

Edited February 13, 2010 by Mr_Data

[cheeky_monkey]

we can all see how this winter will stack up regards to cold just by looking at the figures but where does it stack up in terms of snowfall or major snow events?..i would guess it would come further down the table somewhere..i dont think it has been as snowy as you would expect when you look at the temperature.

[johnholmes]

not so here

More days with snow falling, more days lying and the 3rd highest ever fall on 5 January with 16cm; only two others beat it, 23cm in January 1987 and 19cm in December 1981. That with data going back way over 50 years.

[Weather-history]

not so here

More days with snow falling, more days lying and the 3rd highest ever fall on 5 January with 16cm; only two others beat it, 23cm in January 1987 and 19cm in December 1981. That with data going back way over 50 years.

Neither here, it has been a very snowy winter for the Greater Manchester area especially in terms of days with lying snow. Probably have to go back to December 1981 and January 1982 period for such a snowy period.

[TonyH]

The point regarding snow this Winter is that generally for southern Britain it has not been very snowy, at least concerning depths and disruption.

Snow lying figures will be high though due to the very cold nature of this Winter. In my experience there have been many, many deeper and more exciting snow events than in this Winter (based on Midlands/ west Wales) with even 2007 seeing deeper snow here (6 inches this January), albeit brief compared to this years. In Coventry there have been quite a few minor snowfalls but never more than 3 inches lying.

For southern Britain it has been a very cold but not so snowy Winter, whereas, locally at least, in the north it has been very snowy.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Tonyh

[Snowyowl9]

From november 1995 to the end of february 96 there was 37days with falling snow here, theres been 35 days,so I would think this will be the snowiest that I`ve recorded even with falling snow,looking to next week..

This is actually the longest winter I`ve seen with snow still hanging around since mid december,drifts afew still waiting for snow.

1978/79 must of been the record holder for snow on the ground for a huge length of time,not as I can remember as I thought the drifts thawed,but I`ll have to go back an re live that year.

[Weather-history]

1st December 2009 - 13th February 2010 CET: 2.4C (rounded to nearest decimal point)

If the period 14th -28th February were to record a CET of 11C. then the final winter CET would be 3.8C

If it were 10C then it would be 3.6C

9C ----> 3.5C

8C ----> 3.3C

7C ----> 3.1C

6C ----> 3.0C

5C ----> 2.8C

4C ----> 2.6C

3C ----> 2.5C

2C ----> 2.3C

1C ----> 2.1C

0C ----> 2.0C

So it is looking highly probable being the coldest winter since at least 1985-86 for the CET.

[stewfox]

The point regarding snow this Winter is that generally for southern Britain it has not been very snowy, at least concerning depths and disruption.

Snow lying figures will be high though due to the very cold nature of this Winter. In my experience there have been many, many deeper and more exciting snow events than in this Winter (based on Midlands/ west Wales) with even 2007 seeing deeper snow here (6 inches this January), albeit brief compared to this years. In Coventry there have been quite a few minor snowfalls but never more than 3 inches lying.

For southern Britain it has been a very cold but not so snowy Winter, whereas, locally at least, in the north it has been very snowy.

What do we mean by a historic winter ?

Someones back garden ?

Someones memory ?

Had 25cm of snow in 24hrs in North Oxfordshire and from memory that beats anything I can remember (from 1973 onwards)

However what makes a historic winter how do you measure it.. ideas

Snow amounts and snow storms

Snow cover and area (SE or UK etc)

Temps (CET good reference but elsewhere look at historic figs)

Days of lying snow (we have had no mild weather)

Cold nights cold days

Lots of thinks could go into the pot

For me (age 45) its gone down as one of the top 3

If we didnt have clocks people would still say Jessie Owen is the fastest sprinter ever etc

[damianslaw]

Its been consistently cold but I wouldn't call this winter historic, certainly not up there with the last 'historic' winter i.e. 78/79.

People will define 'historic' differently. For me apart from the pre-christmas period and the first 10 days of January, the rest of the winter (so far) has been fairly benign, with only a bit below average temps and some sporadic localised snowfalls, nothing widespread.

In terms of nationwide snow disruption, apart from the odd day here and there most notably the 6th and 7th Jan the winter has been a quiet affair. No major blizzards have occured at any point.

For the Lake District in terms of snowfall this winter has not been as severe as 1995/96, apart from the spell leading up to christmas the highest amount of snowfall was 3 inches on the 5th Jan - preety poor by any standards.

However, the remainder of Feb looks potentially very snowy and as many of us up here and in Scotland say, March is very much a winter month with significant snow always a major threat especially in the first half of the month - we could still rival winter 95/96 yet for snowfall.. Temperature wise we may not yet beat 85/86..

[Tucco]

Its been consistently cold but I wouldn't call this winter historic, certainly not up there with the last 'historic' winter i.e. 78/79.

People will define 'historic' differently. For me apart from the pre-christmas period and the first 10 days of January, the rest of the winter (so far) has been fairly benign, with only a bit below average temps and some sporadic localised snowfalls, nothing widespread.

In terms of nationwide snow disruption, apart from the odd day here and there most notably the 6th and 7th Jan the winter has been a quiet affair. No major blizzards have occured at any point.

For the Lake District in terms of snowfall this winter has not been as severe as 1995/96, apart from the spell leading up to christmas the highest amount of snowfall was 3 inches on the 5th Jan - preety poor by any standards.

However, the remainder of Feb looks potentially very snowy and as many of us up here and in Scotland say, March is very much a winter month with significant snow always a major threat especially in the first half of the month - we could still rival winter 95/96 yet for snowfall.. Temperature wise we may not yet beat 85/86..

Spot on. There has been more snow as you expect this side of Pennines. 45 days full snow cover so far but terms of excitement I would take 95/96 every time. Hoping for some severe weather on the next few weeks.

r

[The PIT]

Compared too 79 and 81 just a mere walk in the park. Less snow not as cold and again hardly any windy spells. A very interesting winter and when you look at the winters of 2000's notable.

[Bristawl Si]

No one has really defined "historic" - qualification needed.

If we're talking about cold and snow, here in Bristol, it's been pretty good compared to the last 20 years, but compared to early 80s and 78/79 nowhere near.

In fact, i reckon even in the milder winters of my childhood we would have had 3 snowfalls (which is what we've had so far).

And according to my dad, our long lost friend, the Channel Low, made an appearance in most winters in years gone by - now that particular goody has been on an extended holiday for 20 years!

However, 2 months of cold or v.cold temps is pretty unusual and that's what we've had. I don't think daytime temps have got into double temps for 2 months now.

[cheeky_monkey]

its an interesting when people say number of days snow falling and snow lying..potentially you could have one decent snowfall and then be cold for a long period and dry and say we had 50 days of lying snow..or u could get a few flurries off and on and say we had 35 days of snow falling..here in Canada they measure a winter in terms of how much snow has fallen and classify winters on that basis.

[Optimus Prime]

1st December 2009 - 13th February 2010 CET: 2.4C (rounded to nearest decimal point)

The mean winter here is running at 2.6c to the 14th.

Compare this to the whole winters of;

2008/09 3.8c

2007 /08 5.9c

2006/07 6.7c

2005/06 4.0c

2004/05 5.5c

2003/04 5.3c

1st - 18th December 2003 I didn't have any records so I had to 'quality control (lol) the first 18 days of the CET mean.

My 6 year mean comes in at 5.2c. Highly likely this winter will be at least 2.2c below this mean. Certainly a very cold winter in that case.

Edited February 14, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Snowyowl9]

1995-96 was more exciting as a few have mentioned with more drifting snow days and a blizzard or 2,and longer fetch of east winds but not as cold a winter.

Infact that winter carried on all the way into May,there was drifting snow in december,January,feb, March,april and even in May which is ultra rare.