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Somerset Squall

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Edzani

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After battling for several days through high shear, 98S has finally become a tropical cyclone named Edzani, with intensity at 35kts. Convection is persisting over a tightening LLC. However, Edzani is still moving in conflicting conditions; on the one side, waters beneath the cyclone are warm, and equatorward outflow is good, and on the other, shear is still high, which is still displacing the bulk of convection on the western side of the LLC. Shear is expected to gradually ease, and outflow is expected to improve radially. This should allow at least some steady intensification of Edzani over the next few days.

Edzani is moving southwestwards and will move generally west southwestwards over the next few days steered by ridging to the south. This track keeps Edzani away from land for now as it is a long way east (around 80E), but it still needs watching, especially as MeteoFrance are being particularly agressive with strengthening, bring Edzani to "intense tropical cyclone" status.

post-1820-12627602059952_thumb.jpg

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thanks for the updates. this took its time.

si201007.gif

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Shear has fully eased over Edzani now, and with the otherwise favourable environmental factors continuing, Edzani has rapidly intensified, and intensity is now 65kts, 30kts higher than when I last posted. Waters are warm, and radial outflow is good, though Edzani appears to be developing a strong poleward outflow channel. This makes Edzani a rapid intensification candidate, and JTWC bring the cyclone to 100kt intensity pretty quickly, whilst noting that Edzani could easily get stronger. The cyclone is small, which makes rapid intensification more likely, and the storm appears to have rapidly developed an increasingly well defined eye already. Could be a monster this one, which is just as well as landfall appears unlikely on the west-southwesterly track over the next few days.

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Pretty quickly was an understatement. I don't know what it is about South Indian Ocean cyclones this season, but Edzani is the third to rapidly intensify, or even bomb. Intensity has risen to 100kts, making Edzani a cat 3 on the SS scale. Pressure has fallen to 947mb. Edzani has another 48hrs to intensify, perhaps rapidly, before the southwesterly track takes the cyclone over cooler waters. Edzani is benifitting from excellent radial outflow, very warm sea temps and low shear. As I mentioned earlier, Edzani's small size has helped him bomb. So how strong will Edzani get? It's difficult to accurately say as intensity is still the hardest thing to predict even in this day, but don't rule out Edzani approaching or attaining cat 5 status.

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Pressure now down to 927mb, and Edzani has been classified as an intense tropical cyclone. The eye looks near perfect, expect a mid to high end cat 4 next update I reckon!

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

6.8 / 907.2mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

6.8 6.9 6.9

20100107.2100.meteo7.x.ir1km.07SEDZANI.115kts-937mb-149S-789E.100pc.jpg

el nino doing its thing?

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Edzani's satellite estimtes came out a little higher than Edzani's final intensity; Edzani is now a mid range cat 4 with intensity now at 125kts, and pressure down to 915mb. The structure of Edzani has changed, probably due to an eyewall replacement cycle. The intense cyclone has grown larger in size overnight, and has some large, impressive banding features. This may slow down the rapid intensification, but I'd say Edzani does have a little opportunity to strengthen a bit more before the southwesterly track takes the storm over colder waters which will induce a slow weakening trend.

post-1820-12629489567752_thumb.jpg

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Edzani has strengthened further and is now a 135kt, high end cat 4. Edzani has also been upgraded to "Very Intense Tropical Cyclone" status by MeteoFrance, the first system to attain this status this season. Just a 5kt increase in winds would make Edzani a cat 5, but the system is very close to cooler waters and Edzani will most likely begin to weaken later today. With pressure now down to 905mb, you can't take away from Edzani the fact that she's a monster! Thank goodness this thing is nowhere near land!

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Yes, going to Mauritius in a couple of weeks, so wouldn't appreciate the devastation if it hit there ( not withstanding the strife to the locals! ) Thankfully shouldn't be an issue.

An impressive storm indeed. Is 905mb close to a record for the Indian Ocean?

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One of the higher ranking systems but not close to a record. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Gafilo in 2004 had a central pressure of 895mb, and Hary and Kalunde both had pressures of 905mb. These pressure readings are just estimates from intensity anyway, as recon planes are not used to investigate tropical cyclones in this part of the world. Edzani is certainly an impressive cyclone however!

Always worth keeping an eye on this basin however with your holiday. January and February are the most active months for tropical cyclones in this part of the world.

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from this afternoon

UW - CIMSS

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 8.1.1

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 08 JAN 2010 Time : 133000 UTC

Lat : 16:09:11 S Lon : 76:50:43 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

7.3 / 889.0mb/149.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

7.0 7.3 7.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +9.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN

Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT

Weakening Flag : ON

Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

A thing of pure beauty

20100108.0909.aqua.x.ir1km.07SEDZANI.125kts-929mb-155S-778E.56pc.jpg

20100108.1700.meteo7.x.ir1km.07SEDZANI.135kts-922mb-160S-771E.100pc.jpg

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One of the higher ranking systems but not close to a record. Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Gafilo in 2004 had a central pressure of 895mb, and Hary and Kalunde both had pressures of 905mb. These pressure readings are just estimates from intensity anyway, as recon planes are not used to investigate tropical cyclones in this part of the world. Edzani is certainly an impressive cyclone however!

Always worth keeping an eye on this basin however with your holiday. January and February are the most active months for tropical cyclones in this part of the world.

Yes, I went same time last year and we had the outer bands of Cyclone Gael. In truth the worst we experienced was weak tropical storm force winds. Swells totally compromised the reef though and broke on the shore - I remember thinking you wouldn't have those photo's in a glossy brochure!biggrin.gif

I kind of like going then, as it fits in with my mate's love of deep sea fishing - peak time for marlin - and my desire to see tropical systems. Although I'd love to experience a proper hurricane, except maybe going through the eyewall of a cat 5, I do think in many ways it's a selfish desire, as it brings a whole lot of strife to the locals, a lot of whom have very little.

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Yes, I went same time last year and we had the outer bands of Cyclone Gael. In truth the worst we experienced was weak tropical storm force winds. Swells totally compromised the reef though and broke on the shore - I remember thinking you wouldn't have those photo's in a glossy brochure!biggrin.gif

I kind of like going then, as it fits in with my mate's love of deep sea fishing - peak time for marlin - and my desire to see tropical systems. Although I'd love to experience a proper hurricane, except maybe going through the eyewall of a cat 5, I do think in many ways it's a selfish desire, as it brings a whole lot of strife to the locals, a lot of whom have very little.

My sentiments exactly Speed. I would only like to experience the one though I think! biggrin.gif

Edzani is weakening over cooler waters and increased shear. However, as the cyclone was so strong, the wind down is slow, and Edzani may take another 5 days to dissipate/become extratropical. Intensity is now 90kts, and the eye has all but disappeared. However, there remains some intense central convection and the inner core is still very strong and compact, so further weakening won't be rapid.

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Indeed, the first cyclone of 2010 was a cat 5. Hopefully a sign of things to come, lol.

Also, the first cat 5 in this basin since Bento, all the way back in 2004.

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If this cyclone gets much further west, it may eventually recurve close to the Kerguelen Islands and the French research station at Port-aux-francais (61998) which is about 49S 70E. You can access weather obs from there by looking on the France page of wunderground.com ... also Albert Faure on Ile Crozet which is further west and not quite as far south. I've seen Port-aux-Francais get into the warm sector of extratropical Indian Ocean systems once or twice, the temp goes up to about 18 C and winds northerly 50 knots or so. This one may go the other side of them eventually. Currently Port-aux-Francais is in a cool westerly flow behind a cold front with a temperature of about 8 C.

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Interesting about the temperature swings in this kind of set up, goes to show that even when a storm has completed ET it still carries some tropical air I guess.

The cold front seems to be what is dragging Edzani south at the moment too.

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Here's the weather map for the south Indian Ocean, and you can see a little black squiggle representing Kerguelen on this map (although if the cyclone comes anywhere near there it will be obscured by all the isobars):

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/latest.pl?IDCODE=IDX0033

Closer to the equator than any part of the UK, but I believe the highest temperature ever recorded there is 21 C, probably thanks to some nearby tropical remnant, the January average high is something like 13 C. It's worth a look on google earth, an island roughly the size of the Hebrides or Canada's Prince Edward Island, has some glaciated mountains and rugged coasts, surrounded by very cold water and probably sees icebergs more often than the Faeroes would at 62 N.

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