East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Sno' problem]

Well, Jay Wynne was rather vague about the SE, but the graphics definitely showed the ppn being to the West of us!! AAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!

[Discombobulation Man]

Snow is on it's way even though it is slightly delayed

Delayed? under-statement of the century lol

First it was going to be last Friday for the snow, then Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday then Tuesday and now it really is looking like I will never see anything from this.

I knew the end was near one someone posted the channel 4 forecast to 'keep spirits up'

[Ocean Transit]

Worth remembering that the NAE is only a model and when I worked at Exeter the run was often modified (and ocassionaly ignored) in the discussions by the Chief Forecaster. What you see on TV tonight is that model. Unless the presenter/forecaster on duty at the BBC is confident to modify the graphics we just see the model as it was.

The re-issue of the fax chart for tomorrow evening indicates that something *may* of changed slightly.

[Neilsouth]

Any tv updates for wednesday onwards? , north sea precipitation perhaps

[Paul Sherman]

I know Leanne - Cant even see much for Wednesday tbh, and the flow does not look great for Penetrating Showers on Thur & Friday either, after that we are into the T96-T120 Range and anything could happen, I am resigned to the fact this has gone Teits Up (Sorry Dave)

Might pop over to the C Southern thread and see if they will let me have a Glass of Champagne whilst they are celebrating

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Does it really matter about tomorrow??

Can't some of you just relax, chill and wait through this week - there is snow on the way, just stop dissecting every single ounce of information in such desparation as if you are never going to see snow again

[snow raven]

Well, Jay Wynne was rather vague about the SE, but the graphics definitely showed the ppn being to the West of us!! AAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!

I saw that forecast while flicking between CBB on channel 4 this evening (yes, I am sad) and I have to say, he did seem to stress the uncertaintcy (sp) with that forecast. Not that I am clutching at straws or anything

However, I will say that snow always in uncertain - usually suprises those who expect nothing, yet disapoint those who are in the firing line....

[fatyido]

night weather on BBC 2 now

What a total waste of time. Major snow event - yeah right. Hype, hype and more hype.

Not one single forecast predicts snow for Cambridgeshire now for tomorrow.

Almost nailed on - apparently a few days ago - but alas even the north to south fronts are slipping down the western side.

You may sense disappointment in my post. Understatement. !

[Snowydays]

Hi guys just wondering If this snow is going to be worse than the snow we had a couple of weeks ago thanks ?

[Tom D]

kold you mentioned precip for the home counities does this mean bucks may get something

is buckinghamshire included

There's a good chance the Home Counties could get some, at the moment it's looking like just a few centimeters at best.

If it goes that way then there's more chances to be had later in the week as troughs appear on the easterly. Even the odd snow shower may make it inland - I remember one day a few years back there was an easterly and it was just an odd shower came along and gave us an unexpected 5cm. It was late Feb though and once the sun came out and things warmed up it melted.

[Neilsouth]

Hi guys just wondering If this snow is going to be worse than the snow we had a couple of weeks ago thanks ?

At the moment... NO

[snow raven]

I know Leanne - Cant even see much for Wednesday tbh, and the flow does not look great for Penetrating Showers on Thur & Friday either, after that we are into the T96-T120 Range and anything could happen, I am resigned to the fact this has gone Teits Up (Sorry Dave)

Might pop over to the C Southern thread and see if they will let me have a Glass of Champagne whilst they are celebrating

My prozac supply isnt topped up enough to venture into that thread!

[kold weather]

http://news.bbc.co.u...node&state=vi:V

Latest BBC Forecast on their Site - Click The Arrow and Hit Play

All I can say from that is Ouch Ouch Ouch and Ouch

Paul S

I think our attention needs to shift possibly to the other front coming down on Wednesday and hope for the best with what happens tomorrow...

The good news is steering becomes slack so once that front comes down its going to become very slow moving, so even if its no where near potent as the first one, it could still give some fun and games...

Also note, this is far from settled, still some disagreements on the models, only needs a small shift of the low and it brings a big chunk of the region into play.

[Ocean Transit]

Here are the 12Z ECM ensembles for London:

http://www.meteogrou...e_forecast.html

In all seriousness, this is starting to become rather concerning. While some of us enjoy the cold and snowy weather this is going to have major effects on all of us over the coming weeks. Gas prices, food prices and health of the elderly and weak.

Puts all out cold spells since 2003 to shame

Edited January 4, 2010 by Ocean Transit

[A.J]

I know Leanne - Cant even see much for Wednesday tbh, and the flow does not look great for Penetrating Showers on Thur & Friday either, after that we are into the T96-T120 Range and anything could happen, I am resigned to the fact this has gone Teits Up (Sorry Dave)

Might pop over to the C Southern thread and see if they will let me have a Glass of Champagne whilst they are celebrating

I would say pop up to the midlands thread Paul, but best be quick, because we're gonna get snowed in soon...

[dogs32]

I would say pop up to the midlands thread Paul, but best be quick, because we're gonna get snowed in soon...

I took this pic The day after tomorrow

ooops wrong thread :lol:

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[fatyido]

Does it really matter about tomorrow??

Can't some of you just relax, chill and wait through this week - there is snow on the way, just stop dissecting every single ounce of information in such desparation as if you are never going to see snow again

I can relate to that, but we are all on here because we share a passion for snow.

Snow for my region gets put back everyday, or misses altogether, so frustration is the key word. But we still chase every forecast in the hope.

[john w]

Looks like a big downgrade for the SE, London and Home counties doing better (Yes bucks is home county) but really Hants, Wilts and parts of Dorset and Somerset then Devon Cornwall doing the best out of this setup now. Each model run is making it West(er) and wait for the 00z if you can bear to to 'drop the bomb' and make this a non-se event.

Still im gifted in some respects and correct me if I am wrong but NeilSouth...you had your dusting last night!

On a more serious note the models have constantly ramped up the South East prospects and they have constantly been downgraded. The 26/27/28th looked snowy...then people were hoping for a trough last Sunday(ish) then this and then there was Fridays 'dont panic' forecast on country tracks. All in all apart from 4 hours of utter chaos in my area, we have seen little in the way of snowfall, though some lying snow did exist for a few days in parts to the North of me

For precip just rely on radar, rely on models for all the other pointers but for precip let radar sort it.

EDIT: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html (Thanks to poster above) shows perfectly the models overdoing precip.

Also notice avatar locations are gone...so Bracknell South East/Central South UK (Home Counties)

Edited January 4, 2010 by john w

[nick sussex]

Delayed? under-statement of the century lol

First it was going to be last Friday for the snow, then Saturday, then Sunday, then Monday then Tuesday and now it really is looking like I will never see anything from this.

I knew the end was near one someone posted the channel 4 forecast to 'keep spirits up'

Yes that made me laugh aswell! the problem is everyone is overdosing on media forecasts which are now either out of date or all singing a different tune.

The actual low that increases the precip and slows the occlusion down hasn't even formed yet and the latest NAE had this developing slightly further east than earlier, tomorrow is basically a nowcast situation and so i think it would be wise to see how it pans out before everyone starts reaching for the prozac.

[Neilsouth]

While some of us enjoy the cold and snowy weather this is going to have major effects on all of us over the coming weeks. Gas prices, food prices and health of the elderly and weak.

Meh , It'll only last a winter.... That's what winter should be , even those oldies had deep winters when they were young

[Long haul to mild]

Does it really matter about tomorrow??

Can't some of you just relax, chill and wait through this week - there is snow on the way, just stop dissecting every single ounce of information in such desparation as if you are never going to see snow again

Spot on; tomorrow may well be someone else's turn but EA/SE are still well placed for snow Weds onwards. All the models show ppn into the region and in my experience they usually underestimate convection off the North Sea.

Our pre Xmas 6 inch snowfall here came out of virtually nothing and was only predicted a few hours ahead.

The fax chart at T96 looks rather nice tonight I must say!

[Southender]

Oh well another last min blow to the balls. We should be used to it by now. Think ill keep the tv off tomorrow to save anymore anguish. Best of luck to our central, southern and sw counterparts though. Enjoy, you lucky gits.

[joespontiac]

im sure us in the home counties just need it to shift a little east and we would be in a great position. im sure if it can go west at this stage, it can go east by tomorrow!

[Snowydays]

Here in tunbridge wells Kent we have had no snow!!! Keeping my hopes up for Wednesday a huge dumping I don't care about tommorow .

[Paul Sherman]

Does it really matter about tomorrow??

Can't some of you just relax, chill and wait through this week - there is snow on the way, just stop dissecting every single ounce of information in such desparation as if you are never going to see snow again

Thing is Tamara, we were never meant to get anything until Wednesday anyway BUT and it is a big but, what further ramifications does this have further down the line for the South East, remember if the Low (Which was supposed to be in the Southern North Sea) by Tues 18z is now 100 Miles west, where does this put us for the ENE Then East flow at T96 & Further out with the High and approaching Low from the continent at the weekend. This worries me more than tomorrows event tbh

Paul S