South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[David-kig]

Huh?

that chart slightly wrong i think more southern areas are a higher risk say salisbury plain for e.g.

[Zephyr]

South West England: Widespread Icy Roads & Heavy Snow

0450 Tue 5 1800 Tue 5

Scattered wintry showers will spread across southwestern areas today with accumulations of snow of 3 to 6 cm in places, especially over the hills and moors. Showers will be of rain or sleet over western coastal areas. Showers will fall onto sub zero surfaces, leading to widespread ice on untreated surfaces.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 0342 Tue 5 Jan

Bath + NE Somerset

Bournemouth

Bristol

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

Devon

Dorset

Gloucestershire

N Somerset

Plymouth

Poole S

Gloucestershire

Somerset

Swindon

Torbay

Wiltshire

I'm guessing there will be another update for tonight.

Edited January 5, 2010 by Zephyr

[dogs32]

radar looking good....intensifying as the snow moves south

yes that update will keep getting updated..

Wigan reporting 3inche's already from shower's and still snowing in places..

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Wales123098]

Is that low pressure still staying in our necks of the wood SE Wales, SW England please say it is we snow starved haha lol

[dogs32]

Is that low pressure still staying in our necks of the wood SE Wales, SW England please say it is we snow starved haha lol

by the look of things yea...in fact it might be more West...

Its intensifying as it moves south on radar.

probably be light snow for many hrs untill the real heavy stuff tonight

[kumquat]

Anyone got a link to NAE 00z??

[dogs32]

Anyone got a link to NAE 00z??

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=132&BASE=-&WMO=

CENTER of LOW just of West of IOW LATER

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[kumquat]

OK Found it:

Gone slightly south and west on this if anything??

http://www.weatheron...=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Edit: Thanks Dogs. By south I mean extent of heaviest precip at t+30 (slightly south of where the 18z had it) but not disastrous by any means).

Edited January 5, 2010 by kumquat

[dogs32]

i reckon there is also another possibility of yet another low coming in from the north sea later this week,if it can swing enough west

If you run the loop Kumquat...look at the low forming in the n/e sea...will it swing enough west

now Im being greedy

edit must get out of bed..lol

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[kumquat]

GFS 00z also still looks bang on! - Excellent - back to bed!

Was surprised how much the front has slowed in the few hours I've been asleep but I think that was expected?

Good luck all!

i reckon there is also another possibility of yet another low coming in from the north sea later this week,if it can swing enough west

Awesome - we'll have whatever is on offer!!

Anyone seen an Ian forecast on TV this morning?

i reckon there is also another possibility of yet another low coming in from the north sea later this week,if it can swing enough west

If you run the loop Kumquat...look at the low forming in the n/e sea...will it swing enough west

now Im being greedy

edit must get out of bed..lol

Ah yes at t+48 ....... something to keep an eye on!!

[David-kig]

5 cm by end of wednesday close call for more in east somerset wilshire 10cm

[West is Best]

Snowing heavily here.

I noticed the ppn building in the Bristol channel and now it's really coming down heavily. Everything's covered.

[dogs32]

first headlines on the BBC..with wide spread snow forecast..

David I would take no notice of that snow depth..

already Wigan in parts as 3 inches and down South will have it worse

snowing heavy in Leeds

edit WIB..whats your temp down there mate,

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[kumquat]

Yes - nice pics from Leeds on BBC News

[David-kig]

first headlines on the BBC..with wide spread snow forecast..

David I would take no notice of that snow depth..

already Wigan in parts as 3 inches and down South will have it worse

snowing heavy in Leeds

edit WIB..whats your temp down there mate,

well general idea i guess. looks gd for most somerset bristol, most of west country. not so gd for weymouth have u notcied looks drier then anyone else???? mmmmm i would say further east then more cms. general except hills. goin by the general pattern. cnt complain a gd covering for all,well done our the south westerners we have gt our fair share finally whooooooooooooo hoooooooooooooo

Edited January 5, 2010 by David-kig

[dogs32]

met updated

K regions:

60% Wales

60% South West England

60% West Midlands

60% London & South East England

Heavy Snow 1800 Tue 5 2359 Wed 6

Heavy snowfall is expected across parts of central and southern England and southeast Wales late Tuesday and on Wednesday. Accumulations of 5 to 10 cm are expected widely, with locally 10 to 15cm in central parts where there is a moderate risk of over 25cm. This is expected to cause disruption to transport networks and could lead to problems with power supplies. Outdoor events and activities could also be affected by the snow.

This early warning is expected to be superseded by Flash messages.

Issued at: 0553 Tue 5 Jan

South West England:

60% Bath + NE Somerset

60% Bournemouth

60% Bristol

60% Devon

60% Dorset

60% Gloucestershire

60% N Somerset

60% Poole

60% S Gloucestershire

60% Somerset

60% Swindon

60% Wiltshire

Heavy Snow 1800 Tue 5 2359 Wed 6

Heavy snowfall is expected across parts of central and southern England and southeast Wales late Tuesday and on Wednesday. Accumulations of 5 to 10 cm are expected widely, with locally 10 to 15cm in central parts where there is a moderate risk of over 25cm. This is expected to cause disruption to transport networks and could lead to problems with power supplies. Outdoor events and activities could also be affected by the snow.

This early warning is expected to be superseded by Flash messages.

Issued at: 0553 Tue 5 Jan

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[West is Best]

David: it's -4C here.

[Iceberg]

Morning all,

Just been looking at the charts and all is still very much on from the last time I looked it wasn't a blip at all.

Latest NAE totals for the next 48 hrs attached, remember these are general totals over approx 15miles by 15 mile plots, so covers 225sq miles, Local effects such as hills will enhance these figures perhapes by 50-100%.

Currently Even the Dorset/Devon border is due to get 12cms, but the far east of the SW, Central Southern border could get 40cm as shown, so half a meter for somebody in the next 48 hrs is very realistic.

GFS precip totals for next 48hrs are very similar as well, so good agreement, GFS if anything increases the totals for our more northern region Gloucestershire etc.

Beyond 48 hrs and at 72 hrs there is another possibility of some snow and a further possibility at 120-144 but this is far out indeed, beyond that at somepoint there is the possible breakdown (maybe around the 13th), which might or might nor succeed but it likely to put some white stuff down in the process, (incredibly likely if the totals occur over the next 48 hrs as this won't melt). Anyway Ians on in a min.

[dogs32]

David: it's -4C here.

big difference here at 0.6

surely thats not right...

we have wide spread frost out there

Ian on tv shortly

Morning all,

Just been looking at the charts and all is still very much on from the last time I looked it wasn't a blip at all.

Latest NAE totals for the next 48 hrs attached, remember these are general totals over approx 15miles by 15 mile plots, so covers 225sq miles, Local effects such as hills will enhance these figures perhapes by 50-100%.

Currently Even the Dorset/Devon border is due to get 12cms, but the far east of the SW, Central Southern border could get 40cm as shown, so half a meter for somebody in the next 48 hrs is very realistic.

GFS precip totals for next 48hrs are very similar as well, so good agreement, GFS if anything increases the totals for our more northern region Gloucestershire etc.

Beyond 48 hrs and at 72 hrs there is another possibility of some snow and a further possibility at 120-144 but this is far out indeed, beyond that at somepoint there is the possible breakdown (maybe around the 13th), which might or might nor succeed but it likely to put some white stuff down in the process, (incredibly likely if the totals occur over the next 48 hrs as this won't melt). Anyway Ians on in a min.

nice one!!

Edited January 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Iceberg]

Sorry already given

Edited January 5, 2010 by Iceberg

[dogs32]

IAN SAID POSSIBLE UP TO 25CM'S

But Im hoping for iceburg's 40cm's :lol:

[Iceberg]

I see Bournemouth reached -10 last night with a DP of -10.

It going to be bloodycold going to work this morning.

[rbw]

big difference here at 0.6

surely thats not right...

we have wide spread frost out there

Ian on tv shortly

nice one!!

Very concerned about the rising temperature -0.3C here now and rising

R

[dogs32]

Very concerned about the rising temperature -0.3C here now and rising

R

If you go by Ian's forecast he stated that the temp would hover around freezing

and wouldnt go to high today

[SteveB]

big difference here at 0.6

surely thats not right...

we have wide spread frost out there

Ian on tv shortly

nice one!!

Temp rising here also Dogs, from a low of -4.8c to currently -1.1c