East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Hurricane Debby]

Can't believe its already -2 here.

[Southender]

Hi,

Hate to do this , but do you think I have good shot being in SW London?

Many Thanks

As it stands you have a better chance than the rest of us in this region mate.

I would say the sweet spot would be in a line from Gloucester, through Swindon, down to Basingstoke and finally Bognor area (inland)

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[rmc1987]

The channel low is a FAR better solution then the north sea for us, its only worse solution once your north of our region...

the GME shows the frontal system also reaching further NE then the NAE...so the Beeb output this eveing will be something of an outlier compared to the raw data from the other models...GFS+UKMO+GME in broad agreement for the center of the bullseye to be maybe just a touch west of London overall...

Kold, so I might just get something from the edge of this?

[Jan_Bromley]

But you stated it in reply to my post to Ocean whereby I said I will wait 6 hours or so beforehand to see what is happening. I take little notice of many media outlets weather broadcasts, esp when such model disagreement even in this short timeframe.

The post was aimed at no one in particular. i am merely pointing out what the media is reporting. I'm not saying you should take it on board or believe it. Yes I have lots of experience of weather, being in my 50's. and yes, the model disagreement is huge atm. i also believe it will come down to a nowcast. I do not need you to tell me that surely i have more experience than you believe i have

Jan

[jennyjane]

Will it snow in Carlisle?

[Jan_Bromley]

But you stated it in reply to my post to Ocean whereby I said I will wait 6 hours or so beforehand to see what is happening. I take little notice of many media outlets weather broadcasts, esp when such model disagreement even in this short timeframe.

The post was aimed at no one in particular. i am merely pointing out what the media is reporting. I'm not saying you should take it on board or believe it. Yes I have lots of experience of weather, being in my 50's. and yes, the model disagreement is huge atm. i also believe it will come down to a nowcast. I do not need you to tell me that surely i have more experience than you believe i have

Jan

[rug]

As it stands you have a better chance than the rest of us in this region mate.

Many Thanks for the reply.

Good luck to all of you.

[kold weather]

Ahh I see thanks for the explanation mate.

If it all was to go as progged my NAE at the moment. What would that mean for us Weds/Thurs/Fri? a downgrade in shower activity?

I'd imagine SW London should be just far enough west not to need to worry too much about not getting snow, a small shift east would put you guys close to the bullseye. As for Herts, a little trickier as it depends on exactly the evolution...I'll have a little better look for you a little later if thats ok!

LS, It probably doesn't make much of a difference though I'm not too hopeful about them to be honest, think the focus of that may be further north up the east coast...however as long as the GFS isn't correct I'd have thought Friday-Saturday would see showers pushing in from the east.

Edited January 4, 2010 by kold weather

[Ocean Transit]

Had a call from the Express today... I may of added fuel to the fire

Looks like they are running front page tomorrow. Certainly our area which will benefit from a Easterly if it comes off, but as of now it's still another 144hrs away.

Any snow tomorrow will be a bonus before the North Sea kicks in.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Ocean Transit

[saint]

I'd imagine SW London should be just far enough west not to need to worry too much about not getting snow, a small shift east would put you guys close to the bullseye. As for Herts, a little trickier as it depends on exactly the evolution...I'll have a little better look for you a little later if thats ok!

LS, It probably doesn't make much of a difference though I'm not too hopeful about them to be honest, think the focus of that may be further north up the east coast...however as long as the GFS isn't correct I'd have thought Friday-Saturday would see showers pushing in from the east.

Thanks Kold! You can always PM it to me if that easier then puting it in this thread!:lol: Thanks.

[rug]

I'd imagine SW London should be just far enough west not to need to worry too much about not getting snow, a small shift east would put you guys close to the bullseye. As for Herts, a little trickier as it depends on exactly the evolution...I'll have a little better look for you a little later if thats ok!

LS, It probably doesn't make much of a difference though I'm not too hopeful about them to be honest, think the focus of that may be further north up the east coast...however as long as the GFS isn't correct I'd have thought Friday-Saturday would see showers pushing in from the east.

Many Thanks for taking the time tto reply.

[Southender]

I'd imagine SW London should be just far enough west not to need to worry too much about not getting snow, a small shift east would put you guys close to the bullseye. As for Herts, a little trickier as it depends on exactly the evolution...I'll have a little better look for you a little later if thats ok!

LS, It probably doesn't make much of a difference though I'm not too hopeful about them to be honest, think the focus of that may be further north up the east coast...however as long as the GFS isn't correct I'd have thought Friday-Saturday would see showers pushing in from the east.

Hmmm, could end up being a crap week in terms of ppn for EA/SE then.

"Nurse"... :lol: :lol:

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I'd imagine SW London should be just far enough west not to need to worry too much about not getting snow, a small shift east would put you guys close to the bullseye. As for Herts, a little trickier as it depends on exactly the evolution...I'll have a little better look for you a little later if thats ok!

LS, It probably doesn't make much of a difference though I'm not too hopeful about them to be honest, think the focus of that may be further north up the east coast...however as long as the GFS isn't correct I'd have thought Friday-Saturday would see showers pushing in from the east.

Yes yes PLEASE take a good look at Hertfordshire later on that's ok Thankyou.. Please put me out of my misery tablets at the ready.

[danm]

Hmmm, could end up being a crap week in terms of ppn for EA/SE then.

"Nurse"... :lol: :lol:

How ironic would that be, considering yesterdays country tracks forecast? Im sure we'll see some snow.

[kold weather]

FWIW the GFS is once again bar none the worst of the tonights runs with regards to the evolution of the easterly, all other output thus far have given an easterly that is strong enough to give the SE+EA some good falls so as others have said no need to get too stressed out yet!

However as I said my punt is for a moderate eastward movement of the core (say 50-70 miles further east) which whilst means the core will still probably a little further to our west, we will be closer to the wraparound front and would get more snow then progged...

[Southender]

On a more positive note. "That" snowmageddon event for the weekend that was progged yesterday, but disappeared. COULD be back on. Steve M, reveal all Sir... :lol:

[Jan_Bromley]

FWIW the GFS is once again bar none the worst of the tonights runs with regards to the evolution of the easterly, all other output thus far have given an easterly that is strong enough to give the SE+EA some good falls so as others have said no need to get too stressed out yet!

However as I said my punt is for a moderate eastward movement of the core (say 50-70 miles further east) which whilst means the core will still probably a little further to our west, we will be closer to the wraparound front and would get more snow then progged...

Would the wraparound front drag moisture from its edge further south?

Jan

[Ocean Transit]

12Z ECM looks ok for us:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/BeNeLux/2010010412/BeNeLux_2010010412_pmsl_120.png

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ecmwf/BeNeLux/2010010412/BeNeLux_2010010412_pmsl_144.png

Snowy weekend

[Brocken Spectre]

Dan the Man BBC just stated worst gonna be West, Bristol, Gloc area...up to 25cms. Map and symbols seemd to suggest rain for South & East Kent, but then snow showers all over South and South East after the events.

Round 1 maybe... to Bristol/Wilts/Glouc/S.Wales ??????????

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

FWIW the GFS is once again bar none the worst of the tonights runs with regards to the evolution of the easterly, all other output thus far have given an easterly that is strong enough to give the SE+EA some good falls so as others have said no need to get too stressed out yet!

However as I said my punt is for a moderate eastward movement of the core (say 50-70 miles further east) which whilst means the core will still probably a little further to our west, we will be closer to the wraparound front and would get more snow then progged...

Now I'm beginning to understand just watced the B.B.C. forecast and basically this is what you are saying thankyou very much.

[Discombobulation Man]

The channel low is a FAR better solution then the north sea for us, its only worse solution once your north of our region...

OK I'll take your judgement on that. .

I've had far too many helpings of BBC weather forecasts today and it's made me miserable. . . but I draw some hope from the potential in the charts. . . could still get a pasting here from this event.

[saint]

On a more positive note. "That" snowmageddon event for the weekend that was progged yesterday, but disappeared. COULD be back on. Steve M, reveal all Sir... <_<

COULD.............thats 4-5 days away still, look what has happened in 1 day!

[SteveCoops]

Good to see a good few locals on here - been seeing some hilarious driving skills around Westcliff this morning! The snow was almost dry - just like polystyrene.

[Archie_Lewis]

Oh dear!

What a awful forecast for EA/SE on BBC 18:27 evening forecast!

PPN pretty much misses us tomorrow and all heads in central southern England even the first band!

Going on that forecast central southern England in for a very snowy evening and night tomorrow!

I really thought the SE would do well... Oh well hopefully get some heavy snow showers later Wednesday

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Oh dear!

What a awful forecast for EA/SE on BBC 18:27 evening forecast!

PPN pretty much misses us tomorrow and all heads in central southern England even the first band!

Going on that forecast central southern England in for a very snowy evening and night tomorrow!

I really thought the SE would do well... Oh well hopefully get some heavy snow showers later Wednesday

What I understand the SE will get a better wrap around later tomorrow evening is that correct?