East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[saint]

To be fair though, if we do miss out tomorrow weve got the rest of the week because of heavy and frequent snow showers coming off the North Sea.

Pah.......:lol::lol:

[Jan_Bromley]

Brave call Ocean. Personally I want to see how things are 6-12 hours beforehand. However this is a great example of how large snow events can develop for areas in a relatively short time frame. Many in the Central and Southern West locations had attention on East Anglia and South East.

It is going to be an interesting few days starting tomorrow.

It is going west, according to 6pm bbc news

Jan

[pinball wizard]

Both UKMO and GFS trending the right way. But PPN distribution/amounts still way out in lala land. It's anyone's guess. From our point of view, we would like the UKMO to come off. That could deliver great snow to EA/SE with a mean depth I would guess between 10-15cm across the region. Double that in the lucky spots, which could be parts of Suffolk/Essex as the ppn intensifies (This ties in nicely with a post earlier which showed an email from the METO to a local council)

GFS on the other hand would still deliver, but only half as good as UKMO, as the main heavy band stays to the West of London and pushes S. So maybe a max of 10cm for our region in the sweet spot.

In other words they aint got a clue!

We will have to wait until the morning runs/radar watching/fax charts I think! How exciting, either way, it should snow everywhere in our region and for that we need to be greatful :lol:

As and when I get further updates (It was me that posted the info that the met office sent to the council) I will put them on here, it could get quite interesting though for many counties in the east of england!!

[sco77harris]

by tomorrow i will of been waiting almost a week so i expect some white stuff

[Southender]

Anyone got the number for the Snow Samaritans?

Also a bulk supplier contact for some Prozac would be good.

[kold weather]

Its only one solution however guys....

Whats really iknteresting is the UKMO raw output goes east with its solution along, even more so then the GFS...

This reminds me of the set-up in Jan 2007 where a low developed on the front...it was progged by the models to head down CS England and West Midlands, in truth it ended up about 100 miles east of that.

I'd wait till the 18z before getting too downbeat...even if the main lobe misses us it'll be well worth watching for another secondary band coming down from the North Sea...

[Hammer]

It is going west, according to 6pm bbc news

Jan

Oh if the BBC News at 6 said that then that is it then. :lol:

Come on, you must have some experience and understanding that snow events can surprise you. Lets see how things stand 6 hours or so beforehand.

[Ocean Transit]

r.e. Sky News... they are using the older model run. Expect changes after 7pm when it's the same recorded forecast all night long lol

Surprised the BBC are saying the figure 25CM - that's a lot and would expect stronger worded warnings from the UKMO.

I miss not working at Exeter, can't see the internal discussions etc. anymore.

[Southender]

Its only one solution however guys....

Whats really iknteresting is the UKMO raw output goes east with its solution along, even more so then the GFS...

This reminds me of the set-up in Jan 2007 where a low developed on the front...it was progged by the models to head down CS England and West Midlands, in truth it ended up about 100 miles east of that.

I'd wait till the 18z before getting too downbeat...even if the main lobe misses us it'll be well worth watching for another secondary band coming down from the North Sea...

Exactly what I asked earlier Kold.

Why would the METO go against their own model?

Edited January 4, 2010 by LeighShrimper

[Ben_Cambs]

Anything can happen with snow, the Cheshire streamer that affected parts of our region on Saturday wasnt forecast was it? I wouldnt give up just yet

[Jan_Bromley]

Oh if the BBC News at 6 said that then that is it then. :lol:

Come on, you must have some experience and understanding that snow events can surprise you. Lets see how things stand 6 hours or so beforehand.

dont shoot the messenger, merely stating facts

Jan

[BarnetBlizzard]

Downgrade in PPn?

the gfs shows a massive upgrade to the 6Z showing heavy snow for a large chunk of the south east???

Edited January 4, 2010 by BarnetBlizzard

[loveletter]

Can anyone help. Come on here this morning people saying would be snow for me from 9am tomorrow morning and bbc weather saying this as well. Just watched bbc weather and it looks as if I may not get very much tomorrow at all. Has God answered my prayers in the last few hours or have I got it all wrong. Do not like the snow and praying everyone else gets it as I know you all love it but praying God keeps it away from me lol

[kold weather]

r.e. Sky News... they are using the older model run. Expect changes after 7pm when it's the same recorded forecast all night long lol

Surprised the BBC are saying the figure 25CM - that's a lot and would expect stronger worded warnings from the UKMO.

I miss not working at Exeter, can't see the internal discussions etc. anymore.

I'm not really that surprised, the NAE suggests 20-30cms possible in the sweetspot and they aren't going to go against thier own model!

LS, its simply because the NAE IS the UKMO, just a higher resolution version...

Saying that I do wonder whether its too far west given both the GFS and the UKMO raw outputs are further east then the high resolution model. I've got a feeling as I've said before we will see moderate shifts east of that precip core, I actually think the 12z GFS is going to be quite close to the truth, bullseye looks like being between Portsmouth and Brighton...

Whats the odds that I miss probably CS biggest snow threat in years and get little here

[Discombobulation Man]

Hear what your saying Kold but I feel like everythings gone tits up now with that channel low projected to 'win-out'

In pulling all the good stuff away from us on Wednesday it ruins thurs and Friday ppn as well for us. . . imo it just looks like the worst that could happen just did.

[Hammer]

dont shoot the messenger, merely stating facts

Jan

But you stated it in reply to my post to Ocean whereby I said I will wait 6 hours or so beforehand to see what is happening. I take little notice of many media outlets weather broadcasts, esp when such model disagreement even in this short timeframe.

[wee]

Kold,are you saying that Brighton could get a good amount of snow?

[bluearmy]

so the raw meto ppn shows different to the NAE and the forecast will quite naturally go with the NAE, seeing as the latest FAX has done the same. However, the pattern is shifting slightly every six hours so i am a bit surprised that the latest forecasts are so specific. there isnt anything wrong with being a bit vague more than 24 hours out. anyway, lets wait until the 18z and 00z NAE have come out before comitting ourselves - see how the forecast areas of disruption are changing as each run comes out.

[Jan_Bromley]

Hear what your saying Kold but I feel like everythings gone tits up now with that channel low projected to 'win-out'

In pulling all the good stuff away from us on Wednesday it ruins thurs and Friday ppn as well for us. . . imo it just looks like the worst that could happen just did.

but........watching the crappy graphics on beeb weather for thurs, there was a streamer running all the way over the north sea towards the s.e

Jan

[kold weather]

The channel low is a FAR better solution then the north sea for us, its only worse solution once your north of our region...

the GME shows the frontal system also reaching further NE then the NAE...so the Beeb output this eveing will be something of an outlier compared to the raw data from the other models...GFS+UKMO+GME in broad agreement for the center of the bullseye to be maybe just a touch west of London overall...

[Upgrade]

Oh if the BBC News at 6 said that then that is it then.

Come on, you must have some experience and understanding that snow events can surprise you. Lets see how things stand 6 hours or so beforehand.

Absolutely. Its only in the last couple of hours any amount of snow has been forecast off this feature anyway. it could go anywhere. given these features tend to trend further east than progged i wouldnt worry too much.

even if it does miss London and the South East there are other bites at the cherry to be had this week and next. Such is an extended cold spell.

nearly 3 weeks of lying snow for most of northern britain now.

this is an epic cold spell. enjoy it.

[saint]

The channel low is a FAR better solution then the north sea for us, its only worse solution once your north of our region...

the GME shows the frontal system also reaching further NE then the NAE...so the Beeb output this eveing will be something of an outlier compared to the raw data from the other models...GFS+UKMO+GME in broad agreement for the center of the bullseye to be maybe just a touch west of London overall...

So us in west Herts could still have a chance?

[rug]

The channel low is a FAR better solution then the north sea for us, its only worse solution once your north of our region...

the GME shows the frontal system also reaching further NE then the NAE...so the Beeb output this eveing will be something of an outlier compared to the raw data from the other models...GFS+UKMO+GME in broad agreement for the center of the bullseye to be maybe just a touch west of London overall...

Hi,

Hate to do this , but do you think I have good shot being in SW London?

Many Thanks

[Southender]

I'm not really that surprised, the NAE suggests 20-30cms possible in the sweetspot and they aren't going to go against thier own model!

LS, its simply because the NAE IS the UKMO, just a higher resolution version...

Saying that I do wonder whether its too far west given both the GFS and the UKMO raw outputs are further east then the high resolution model. I've got a feeling as I've said before we will see moderate shifts east of that precip core, I actually think the 12z GFS is going to be quite close to the truth, bullseye looks like being between Portsmouth and Brighton...

Whats the odds that I miss probably CS biggest snow threat in years and get little here

Ahh I see thanks for the explanation mate.

If it all was to go as progged my NAE at the moment. What would that mean for us Weds/Thurs/Fri? a downgrade in shower activity?

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Kold,are you saying that Brighton could get a good amount of snow?

Yes! I mean No! oh I don't know all getting to complicated for me now lol