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kold weather

East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

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Guest FireStorm

Brighton to get a dumping on the 12z apparently lol

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looks like the front stalls over midlands and actually hits SE overnight Tuesday/Wednesday ? Better result , less marginal and the PPN on wednesday is an upgrade :-)

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I'm in the middle of the big green splodge.. I won't hold my breath yet though.

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The latest NAE precip charts show a heavy pulse of snow moving south into the west country & central southern england, but a gaping snowless zone over the SE and EA!

http://expert.weathe...010600_0412.gif

Big differences compared with the 06z runs, that run would be fine because there is another band of snow which will come down from the north sea which would probably give a good 2-5cms...

On a personal level this set-up is much better, I'd take this over the 06z solution any day of the week...

Also must be noted I wouldn't be surprised if that core got moved a little further east, seems like a big westward shift, to big IMO...

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Yep

Jumped in a bit early there Robin!! :drinks:

gfs iS Actually better for our neck of the woods as it delays the 1st Trough completely and then the 2nd becomes a Beast and hits at the Optimum Time and better placed as well, giving us about 18 hours worth of Snow from 21z Tomorrow evening until Wednesday afternoon.

We shall see what the other 2 show in the next few hours

PROZAC AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!

Paul S

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So guys, hows it looking in Herts now? It seems while I was at work many things have happened!:drinks:

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Hahaahhaha, prehaps I shouldn't have mentioned Ilse of Wight in my earlier post, 1 foot of snow predicted by the GFS there. And me in a rear wheel driver series 1 Beemer. I'll see you all in (frozen) hell!

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Yep

Jumped in a bit early there Robin!! :drinks:

No probs, drinkies and nibbles at my house - if you can get there!!! ;)

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Yep

Jumped in a bit early there Robin!! :drinks:

gfs iS Actually better for our neck of the woods as it delays the 1st Trough completely and then the 2nd becomes a Beast and hits at the Optimum Time and better placed as well, giving us about 18 hours worth of Snow from 21z Tomorrow evening until Wednesday afternoon.

We shall see what the other 2 show in the next few hours

PROZAC AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!

Paul S

NAE doesn't think so, Paul. Not for the bulk of Kent anyway.. ;)

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

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Am I the only one who would love (for once) to have the decent snow actually fall during the day so it can be seen? The bit I like about snow is watching it fall - very relaxing and "chilling" (forgive the pun)....

DS

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So guys, hows it looking in Herts now? It seems while I was at work many things have happened!:drinks:

Well GFS and NAE models show lots of precip suddenly tomorrow night into Wednesday, but we should not get too excited until the UKMO comes out in about an hour I think.

Some places are going to get quite a bit of snow, but the slighest adjustment will lead to heartbreak for the southwest/Wales and W Midland OR for the southeast and E Midlands.

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Yeah I know and I dont trust the GFS Anyway - It's precip charts are shocking at the best of times, no-one is going to know until the radar is closely monitored tomorrow morning when we all wake up I suppose.

Paul S

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SE precip is marginal according to NAE - C,S and SW areas progged to get the dumping...

http://expert.weathe...010606_0412.gif

Yeah western parts of this zone does well but the main action is actually near my Uni, that would suck! :D

Saying that I think the NAE is too far west as I've mentioned in the model thread, the 12z looks more realisitic in the set-up being progged by the models and the changes being brought in.

BTW, the NAE is like the higher resolution version of the UKMO out to 48hrs.

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Who said things look mainy dry.....

Go WEST...nuff said...

Expect a slight eastward revision on the 18z & 00z.....:D

BUT, a nice run ensuring *most* get some white stuff

Any takers for the GME...

GME...Okay I suppose :-)

TUE - J

Haha, eastward slightly would more than do me.. Move that nice big blob over my house :D.

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I don't think we will really know until tomorrow morning what's going on , there are such huge differences between each run it's crazy

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12z just about gets E.Kent into the cyclonic easterly flow, a little better in that respect but still not as good as the other models at 120hrs.

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Well GFS and NAE models show lots of precip suddenly tomorrow night into Wednesday, but we should not get too excited until the UKMO comes out in about an hour I think.

Some places are going to get quite a bit of snow, but the slighest adjustment will lead to heartbreak for the southwest/Wales and W Midland OR for the southeast and E Midlands.

Sounds ok, thanks!

Amazing how we cant trust the models this colse to the event! Should we just give up on them?:D :D

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The UKMO OMGOSH!!!!!!!

U48-594.GIF?04-17

:D

Awesome thats what we want , i think gfs has gone abit loopy !

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looks like the front stalls over midlands and actually hits SE overnight Tuesday/Wednesday ? Better result , less marginal and the PPN on wednesday is an upgrade :-)

Ahh so that should be good for me too right? Another change but now we need to see what the UKMO comes out with.........Lots of chopping and changing.

EDIT; Today in the shade the frost has remained quite thick. Temp reached -1.5c but it is now -5.5c. Heathrow reached 1c looking at NOAA site and is currently -1c. Very clear sky so if it's clear tonight cold.gifph34r.gif

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Heavy Snow Wed 6 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of southern England and east Wales.

There is a potential for a period of heavy snow during Wednesday morning with locally large accumulations. The location of the heavy snow is uncertain and will be kept under review.

Issued at: 1553 Mon 4 Jan

Would not be so sure about that Chart

Look what the Meto have posted up 15mins ago :p:oops::p

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