East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

[Coast]

How come your ISP Matches that of a certain poster called "Lowestoft"

[nick sussex]

Yes there are very high expectations. Thus far I have had relatively little snow and certainly will enjoy a decent covering with the hope that the cold air stays around (which it looks pretty certain to).

I adore snow obviously and always get excited about the prospect of it - BUT, like you, I don't want any extreme event and hope that the excesses threatened in the further outlook for the weekend don't materialise.

Myself and the household can muddle through ok obviously, that is not a problem - but I have domestic livestock to look after whose livelihood depend upon the power supplies not being affected. So I am concerned enough to hope this sort of threat can be avoided. Apart from their obvious important livelihood - the cost would be expensive financially as well. All this quite apart from the fact that whilst I want to enjoy the snow, I don't want everything paralysed to the point of not being able to get out and about both to enjoy it (when time allows) but also much like you simply to be able to do the daily necessary routine!

I guess if you have no responsibilities as such, then it matters less to some people - hence the hope for disruptive extreme events.

There are also elderly and vulnerable people to consider as well of course.

Hi Tamara i didn't realize you have livestock to look after so of course that is a worry. I think it's really hard to say exactly how much snow could fall but i have actually warned friends and family in that part of the world to stock up and keep a close check on the forecasts. Actually i told them last week that there was a good chance of some very disruptive conditions, i took a chance there as theres nothing worse than looking like a scaremonger!

I think the problem could come if high winds aswell as snow is forecast and at the moment quite alot of uncertainty regarding the strength of the easterly flow.

[Coast]

I am not expecting massive amounts but I feel we will get more than a couple of cm's.

Yes I am sitting on the fence my previous forty years have taught me that. I suggest we all just sit back, chill and enjoy the ride, after all we are entering a very cold phase by recent standards.

Hi Icebox and welcome to Netweather.

Those are very sensible comments and make a great first post, many of us could learn from that sentiment

[maidstone weather]

Hi everyone newbie here so please take it easy on me!

Having spent over forty years living in London and Kent, I have lost count the amount of times I have been caught out by the fickle weather in the south east. When we expect loads we get none and vice-versa, I am not expecting massive amounts but I feel we will get more than a couple of cm's.

Yes I am sitting on the fence my previous forty years have taught me that. I suggest we all just sit back, chill and enjoy the ride, after all we are entering a very cold phase by recent standards.

where abouts are you from Icebox? If you could add your location on your profile that would be handy

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi Tamara i didn't realize you have livestock to look after so of course that is a worry. I think it's really hard to say exactly how much snow could fall but i have actually warned friends and family in that part of the world to stock up and keep a close check on the forecasts. Actually i told them last week that there was a good chance of some very disruptive conditions, i took a chance there as theres nothing worse than looking like a scaremonger!

I think the problem could come if high winds aswell as snow is forecast and at the moment quite alot of uncertainty regarding the strength of the easterly flow.

Afternoon nick,

I'm keeping an eye on the data/forecasts etc. If things look especially disruptive, then I might have to look at some sort of temporary alternative power source as a safety back-up. But I don't know how expensive that is, nor tbh am I technically too clued up about the options available . Some googling coming up I think!

Don't want to over react, but at the same time, much as you in terms of speaking to friends and family best to 'be prepared'. Go orange zone!

Edited January 4, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Methuselah]

Hi everyone newbie here so please take it easy on me!

Having spent over forty years living in London and Kent, I have lost count the amount of times I have been caught out by the fickle weather in the south east. When we expect loads we get none and vice-versa, I am not expecting massive amounts but I feel we will get more than a couple of cm's.

Yes I am sitting on the fence my previous forty years have taught me that. I suggest we all just sit back, chill and enjoy the ride, after all we are entering a very cold phase by recent standards.

Welcome to the forum, Icebox...Please, can you put your location into your profile? It helps when trying to know where you are...

I spent the winter of 1970 in Kent, so I also know how fickle our weather can be!

[Icebox]

where abouts are you from Icebox? If you could add your location on your profile that would be handy

Sorry my mistake NW Kent

Edited January 4, 2010 by Icebox

[nick sussex]

Afternoon nick,

I'm keeping an eye on the data/forecasts etc. If things look especially disruptive, then I might have to look at some sort of temporary alternative power source as a safety back-up. But I don't know how expensive that is, nor tbh am I technically too clued up about the options available . Some googling coming up I think!

Don't want to over react, but at the same time, much as you in terms of speaking to friends and family best to 'be prepared'. Go orange zone!

Actually i've invested in a generator now after that awful storm we had last January. Just enough to keep the lights on and be able to watch the television, it was funny after the storm the first thing i checked was whether the satellite dish was still in one piece! bear in mind if you still want to run televisions or computers you need to make sure it has a regulator to keep the electricity within a narrow range otherwise the fluctuations could blow your tv and computer.

Anyway lets hope it doesn't come to that, snowfall with lighter winds would certainly reduce the chance of power problems but as yet it's a wait and see until the models decide on what the easterly flow is going to do.

[Neilsouth]

Not sure what to make of that national forecast for south east england , didn't look that great

[SMU]

Sorry my mistake NW Kent

Icebox where are you in NW kent,......

You have a lot of fellow posters from this neck of the woods-

Expectations from me for the NW kent area is between 2-12 inches---as a benchmark --

Im also beginning to raise hopes of an old fashioned blizzrd to develop from the SW as we move through next week....

Record breaking modern times ahead---- maybe a -8 tonight in bexleyheath....

Steve

[Jan_Bromley]

Not sure what to make of that national forecast for south east england , didn't look that great :unsure:

[/quotI think they're being very cautious Neil. The next 24 hours, certainly in terms of the low to our SW, are very complex. It seems that different models have it placed differently. It would make a big difference where it actually turns up I would think

Jan

[pinball wizard]

My fears are rather strongly back up by the Met office own invent graphics which show in high detail the thinking of the NAE:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/

Look at the rainfall and look just how little Essex/Suffolk get, very good agreement with the 06z GFS.

Also shows the strenghening of the front in Sussex and Kent, could well see 5-10cms here whilst north of the thames gets a dusting.

Interestingly though there is according to that link very little in the way of snow for Cambs, and Lincolnshire as well, this goes against the met office warnings and also against some of the GFS data from the both 0z and 06z.

I think even now it is too early to say how much or little there will be, nowcasting and radar watching is all that we can do.

I've just received this email from work ( I work for a County Council):

Dear all,

The following severe weather warning has been received from the Met Office.

After a fine but cold day today, there is some snow expected to spread into the region during Tuesday. There is some uncertainty about the detailed timings and amounts at this stage but there looks to be two main periods of risk.

First some light snow is expected into the Peterbrough/Cambs area from early on Tuesday morning and this will spread southeast during the rest of the morning. Initially it is expected to be light but some heavier snow could develop during the afternoon/evening before it moves off into the North Sea (Essex, Suffolk most at risk from this). By that time, and after a brief lull in places, a further band is expected to be moving into the northwest of the region again and this drifts southeastwards during the night, weakening as it does so. As I say, a lot of uncertainty even at this stage about timings and amounts but we probably need to be prepared for 2-5 cm across large parts of the region by Wednesday morning with a risk of 10cm on higher ground. In the north of the region it may be that the lull doesn't occur and showers feed in off the North Sea for much of the day - hence the risk in the advisories of 15-20cm in places for Norfolk and Cambs in particular.

The cold weather with ice risks is set to continue through the rest of the week with a further risk of more snow later in the week but I'll update you on that later. I'll try to update you on tomorrow's situation as early as possible tomorrow morning but as usual, call me or email me if you have any queries."

[kold weather]

Not sure what to make of that national forecast for south east england , didn't look that great

For Kent and probably sussex it looks good, as does the far north of the region around the Wash but inbetween that zone it certainly isn't a great looking set-up at this moment. Still time for things to shift but we should be getting to the time period where things are getting into agreement at least boradly.

As has been said before there is an awful lot of uncertainty, most areas should at least see some snow but the extent of the heavier falls (more then a dusting) still seems very much in the air so to speak!

Steve, yeah as I said in the model thread the risk is there though of course its a very fine line to tread.

ps,worth noting that Met office update that was just psoted suggests the front could well become stronger a little further north then expected, I guess the 0z ECM has heavily influenced that thinking...

Edited January 4, 2010 by kold weather

[dallas]

Sorry my mistake NW Kent :unsure:

Wellcome Ice box, another for the N/W Kent clan

[Icebox]

Icebox where are you in NW kent,......

You have a lot of fellow posters from this neck of the woods-

Expectations from me for the NW kent area is between 2-12 inches---as a benchmark --

Im also beginning to raise hopes of an old fashioned blizzrd to develop from the SW as we move through next week....

Record breaking modern times ahead---- maybe a -8 tonight in bexleyheath....

Steve

Hi Steve I'm in Gravesend -3 last night just above now as for the next 48 hrs.......... No predictions from me but if I was too hazard a guess, 4 inches tops by the weekend then cold and dry, but as I said in an earlier post I'm sitting on the fence. So much so I've got splinters in my........ moving on! :unsure:

[Jan_Bromley]

For Kent and probably sussex it looks good, as does the far north of the region around the Wash but inbetween that zone it certainly isn't a great looking set-up at this moment. Still time for things to shift but we should be getting to the time period where things are getting into agreement at least boradly.

As has been said before there is an awful lot of uncertainty, most areas should at least see some snow but the extent of the heavier falls (more then a dusting) still seems very much in the air so to speak!

Steve, yeah as I said in the model thread the risk is there though of course its a very fine line to tread.

Hi Kold,

what are your thoughts on the low to the sw?

Jan

[Country Boy]

I dont trust the met office forecasts sorry: And remember everybody..fronts moving down from the north, dont often give our region much. We need the north/easterly flow..hopefully this will be later in the week.

[Reevesie]

-8c in Bexleyheath? Im no expert on such matters but I can confirm it was Brass Monkey weather on Barnehurst platform at 6am this morning.

Theres a fair few of us from the local area on this forum. Its ideal for a quick accurate forecast!

[kold weather]

Going to close this one soon and open up the big 25th thread!