North West Cold Spell Discussion:

[V for Very Cold]

morning all - I'm on my first brew - had a quick nosy at the outlook and I have to say it looks promisning - nice to see a little more intensification, but as soooooo many people have pointed out - show prediction in this country is a black art

[wysiwyg]

Funny thing is wysiwyg, that temps south of the region are still dropping

Indeed. I'm thinking that with the relatively calm surface winds and lying snow that there is still some inversion going on even after the sun has risen.

I may be wrong but I can't think of any other explaination

[Liam J]

These temps are just getting more amazing as the morning wears on lol

my temp -7.1C Slighly up since 8.45 when they where rising to a max value of -6.6C

areas around the coast, wait until the wind swings west or north west later, isle of man ronaldsway was reporting -3c its now lept to +2c an increase of 5 degrees!!! when the wind picked up....

oh dear

the bouys in the irish sea are showing 3/4c thats not to warm really, and when they show 5/6/7c later in the day they are in direct sunlight with no shade...

any air that gets blown to the coasts should be shallow and ppn should lower the temp

Edited January 4, 2010 by james12

[cheshire snow]

Still -7c at Man Airport

C.S

[HotCuppa]

areas around the coast, wait until the wind swings west or north west later, isle of man ronaldsway was reporting -3c its now lept to +2c an increase of 5 degrees!!! when the wind picked up....

oh dear

I am not entirely convinced that we'll loose this iceday, its even colder now than it was before christmas, and the temps are still dropping...mind you if we want some snow its going to need to warm up a little bit. Isle of Man is smack bang in the warmer waters of the Irish sea you have to bare this in mind, where temps are around 8C, and the fact that IOM will always be much warmer than anywhere else. -3 isn't very much but id like to bet its around -6, -7 on the mountains.

Mind you I am thinking more along the lines of potentially +1, +2C anyways around the coast of liverpool and about 3 or 4 miles still in -ve territory, say around -1, -2C I think the further east you are and the higher your elevation then temps are probably going to stay much lower. I am just guessing tbh

Still the SST around liverpool, formby and southport are much colder than most parts of the north sea and obviously isle of man and the irish coast coastline.

Edited January 4, 2010 by HotCuppa

[Osbourne One-Nil]

As I drove to work this morning...

[V for Very Cold]

As I drove to work this morning...

great pics O-1-0 - they really are stunning

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

i dont want to cause undue worry but the NAF model is going for a shed load of RAIN tonight across the NW and midlands.

[wysiwyg]

As I drove to work this morning...

Fabulous loving the panoramic shot!

i dont want to cause undue worry but the NAF model is going for a shed load of RAIN tonight across the NW and midlands.

Something in the MOD thread about it being a glitch?

[Weather-history]

i dont want to cause undue worry but the NAF model is going for a shed load of RAIN tonight across the NW and midlands.

Have a look at this one, the 24hr one looks faulty as it shows all preciptation, everywhere as rain

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/04/basis06/ukuk/prty/10010518_2_0406.gif

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Fabulous loving the panoramic shot!

Something in the MOD thread about it being a glitch?

i hope so unless that mild sector envelops the whole of England!!

Its posible i suppose but the slide which shows blues everywhere is really really extensive and covers yorks too!

I must add that the beeb graphics are showing RAIN across the NW tonight.

what to believe?

hope it doesnt rain though that would be gutting.

lol

Edited January 4, 2010 by happy days

[Bartlett Low]

Yet 6 hrs earlier its all rain Mr.D !

[Weather-history]

Yet 6 hrs earlier its all rain Mr.D !

Yes and everywhere at that, not a single area of snow anywhere around the UK, so its got to be faulty that one.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[SP1986]

-0.2C at the moment at the frost is starting to melt away.

Never really got that cold last night, Wirral in general was -2/-3C was the typical average temperature last night (from 12am-6am)

Ive always maintained relative elevation on the coast is a hinderance rather than a helping hand, last night proves it.

It only fell to -4.2C at midnight for example.. at 6am this morning it was -2.9C, Chester was -6.5C at the same time, Hawarden was -8C at 6am, and Liverpool airport was -5C or -6C, Crosby was -4 or -5C for much of the period.

Wirral is a greenhouse.

[Bartlett Low]

Yes and everywhere at that, not a single of area of snow anywhere around the UK, so its got to be faulty that one.

You would think so. Personally looking at all the available data I think a snow event tonight for most in the North West.

[Weather-history]

24hr FAX chart, the warm sector is comfortably to our west but note that kink in the front around the Derbyshire area, what is that? And where's that little low and front off the west of Scotland going?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[cheshire snow]

24hr FAX chart, the warm sector is comfortably to our west but note that kink in the front around the Derbyshire area, what is that? And where's that little low and front off the west of Scotland going?

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax24s.gif

Someone on the ireland thread reckons its a PL?

C.S

[dodge]

mmm... looks like overnight could be a bit more messy and not as straight forward as first thought. Both in terms of mild sectors and were if any, the most snowfall might fall. Might just have to revert back to nowcasting, and all eyes on the radar when the time comes.

Not sure what the min temps were last night for my area, but at 9am it was -8c so that sounds about right. Saying -3c now.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Airport latest METAR now mentions the possibilty of heavy snow

Temporary

from 04 at 19 UTC to 05 at 01 UTC

Visibility 5000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1000 ft

light snow

Temporary

from 05 at 01 UTC to 05 at 06 UTC

Visibility 1600 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft

snow

Probability 30% :

Temporary

from 05 at 03 UTC to 05 at 06 UTC

Visibility 0900 m

Broken clouds at a height of 200 ft

heavy snow

Probability 40%

from 05 at 06 UTC to 05 at 10 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft

mist

Temporary

from 05 at 10 UTC to 05 at 18 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1000 ft

light snow showers

Edited January 4, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Snow free zone]

Really not sure what to believe here. BBC saying rain only, met office sleet then snow, GFS snow - all very confusing. Then there's now this fly in the ointment of the potential formation of this LP to the West of Scotland. Who'd be a weather forecaster.

The METAR forecasts are interesting with Liverpool going for heavy snow tonight (30% chance) whilst Blackpool has light showers rain/snow between 17.00 & 21.00, Manchester has snow then heavy snow (great i phone app by the way for anyone that has one - aeroweather)

Must have posted at the same time

Edited January 4, 2010 by Snow free zone

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

mmm... looks like overnight could be a bit more messy and not as straight forward as first thought. Both in terms of mild sectors and were if any, the most snowfall might fall. Might just have to revert back to nowcasting, and all eyes on the radar when the time comes.

Not sure what the min temps were last night for my area, but at 9am it was -8c so that sounds about right. Saying -3c now.

If we cant get snow tonight mate its time to give it all up!

Mr data says the warm front is out in the irish sea so we should be seeing -6/-7 hpa air with low surface temps.

Has to be snow but its so frustrating seeing rain on the forecasts.

[Bartlett Low]

Manchester Airport latest METAR now mentions the possibilty of heavy snow

I've noticed over the past fortnight that these Man Airport forecasts have been the most accurate of any made for this immediate area.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Im getting very confused now,gfs says snow,meto say snow,fax chart says snow(i think) and STILL the bbc are saying rain/wintry mix.

Its starting to bug me.

why cant they just state what the models say!!!!!!!!!

[cheshire snow]

I've noticed over the past fortnight that these Man Airport forecasts have been the most accurate of any made for this immediate area.

they are 99.9% accuarte they have to be they are not so intrested in the snow but the danger it brings to aircraft

On night shift at Man Airport tonight so very intresting night ahead.

C.S

[SP1986]

Liverpool TAF also mentions heavy snow but right now I doubt it because it is currently 2C, and to be fair the NW'ly hasn't properly dug in yet so, that will always have a detrimental effect when it comes to snow.

I think rain and sleet tonight on the coast to be fair.