South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[arcus cloud]

evening all, i think when it comes to the models/weather i am of the thinking i will believe it when i see it, and at the moment im a so bored of the weather.

what will be, will be!!!

fromey

( i hope the forecast i put on here last night from joe b comes true!!!)

Check joe b's blog again, he has changed his mind just a little. Still looks good though.

[Evening thunder]

Well even if it doesn't snow, we've had 2 days of frost not melting in places on shaded roofs etc, Already looks like a tiny dusting of snow and should build up in the coming days..Lol!:lol:

One thing I don't quite understand though is the BBC thinking Tuesday will be sleet rain in the west and south. Even the Met Office 3-5 day outlook for South West England doesn't suggest any sleet or rain.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Remaining very cold with hard overnight frosts. Some dry and sunny spells are expected, along with occasional snow showers, and perhaps also some more prolonged snow in a few places.

Updated: 1547 on Sun 3 Jan 2010

Edited January 3, 2010 by StormMad26

[fromey]

Check joe b's blog again, he has changed his mind just a little. Still looks good though.

AHH NUTS, will check again thanks.

awaiting for ian to update us!!!!hint hint

fromey

[West is Best]

Yeah just noticed the 12z shows snow for us from friday through to sunday.

Once again, still too far off to smile though.

Why are you gazing at that then when you could be looking at tomorrow night into Tuesday?! Take a peek ... and smile!

The Meto were talking more of rain sleet in the south-east than parts of the west. However, I doubt it will fall as other than snow especially for those with a bit of elevation in the west country.

Edited January 3, 2010 by West is Best

[Bristawl Si]

Why are you gazing at that then when you could be looking at tomorrow night into Tuesday?! Take a peek ... and smile!

Trouble is WIB, the Beeb forecasts talk more of rain/sleet for us on Tuesday eve, yet NW precipitation charts show snow. Who's likely to be right?

[alex12]

what does the green and yellow bit mean its right over me.... i know pink is snow which isnt over me grrrrr lolo awww doing me head in ..thats it gonna move back to hampshire lolol

sleet i think.

[snowking]

Trouble is WIB, the Beeb forecasts talk more of rain/sleet for us on Tuesday eve, yet NW precipitation charts show snow. Who's likely to be right?

The reason is there is a frontal system moving south typical of a depression - occluded front on one flank, with warm front then cold front on the other where it hasnt quite occluded

However unless the 12z FAX shows any difference, the 0z fax suggests the warm front (and warm sector associated) only really clipping the west of wales and cornwall

IF this is how things pan out well this can play into our hands - where the front has only just occluded you'll get some much heavier precipitation

SK

[BARRY]

Trouble is WIB, the Beeb forecasts talk more of rain/sleet for us on Tuesday eve, yet NW precipitation charts show snow. Who's likely to be right?

I just don't believe a word the beeb are saying,How can it rain with uppers of -9

[pyrotech]

Trouble is WIB, the Beeb forecasts talk more of rain/sleet for us on Tuesday eve, yet NW precipitation charts show snow. Who's likely to be right?

I have asked this question in the model thread as all temps, thickness and dew points are fine, no sign of modification for the percipitation and yet NAE and bbc / meto say turning to rain or sleet. No one can answer why, either because no one knows or they are too stuck on what they are gonna get and of course what the hell London will do if they get more than 1 cm.

Even the warm sector is cold enough for snow from what i can see and is so over mid wales, why turn back to rain?

Edited January 3, 2010 by pyrotech

[fromey]

I have asked this question in the model thread as all temps, thickness and dew points are fine, no sign of modification for the percipitation and yet NAE and bbc / meto say turning to rain or sleet. No one can answer why, either because no one knows or they are too stuck on what they are gonna get and of course what the hell London will do if they get more than 1 cm.

Even the warm sector is cold enough for snow from what i can see and is so over mid wales, why turn back to rain?

i have asked the same thing over and over again but never get a reply i think there too focused on the models at 30000000000hrs.

oh well

fromey

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

[fromey]

jesus thats 8 days away!!!!!!!

fromey

[snowking]

Ill just re-post over here:

New FAX charts now coming out

Gets rid of the warm sector from mainland britain....just southern ireland now in it

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax48s.gif

SK

[BARRY]

I am looking at Tuesday to Thursday for a big snow event,And i don't mind having a rant about it,even if it means we can't work.

[Bristawl Si]

Ill just re-post over here:

Nice one! It'll be interesting to see an update from Ian tomorrow evening on Tuesday's chances.

[mrchoosy]

I have asked this question in the model thread as all temps, thickness and dew points are fine, no sign of modification for the percipitation and yet NAE and bbc / meto say turning to rain or sleet. No one can answer why, either because no one knows or they are too stuck on what they are gonna get and of course what the hell London will do if they get more than 1 cm.

Even the warm sector is cold enough for snow from what i can see and is so over mid wales, why turn back to rain?

Thermohaline Conveyor:Rain and Sleet under a boundary of -7 DP of -1/0 and a 2mT of 1 - 3 - any remotely moderate PPN will fall exclusively as snow. I think all this talk about warm sectors is not really understood fully by some. The air is certainly milder than the surrounding air that the low is moving into, but when this air is -10/-11 and -12 the actual warm sector is -7 or -8 which is a nice required snowfall parameter - regardless of whether it is a warm sector relative to it's environmental."

hope i dont get told off for this but this quote from another forum site. TC is quite well known to certain people.

Edited January 3, 2010 by mrchoosy

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Nice one! It'll be interesting to see an update from Ian tomorrow evening on Tuesday's chances.

just seen the local and national forecast on the beeb and they both say theres a real risk of some significant snow later in the week so if there both saying it then hopefully its a solid forecast.

[dogs32]

A woman who left her remote home in the Scottish Highlands to buy a turkey two days before Christmas has still not made it home.

Her trip involved an 11-mile car drive, a boat trip and a bus ride.

On her return, the road to the lighthouse was blocked by heavy snow, and Mrs Ure has been stranded 11 miles from home ever since.

[snowking]

And another update on the FAX:

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax60s.gif

Wrap-round trough following the front

SK

[J10]

Thermohaline Conveyor:Rain and Sleet under a boundary of -7 DP of -1/0 and a 2mT of 1 - 3 - any remotely moderate PPN will fall exclusively as snow. I think all this talk about warm sectors is not really understood fully by some. The air is certainly milder than the surrounding air that the low is moving into, but when this air is -10/-11 and -12 the actual warm sector is -7 or -8 which is a nice required snowfall parameter - regardless of whether it is a warm sector relative to it's environmental."

hope i dont get told off for this but this quote from another forum site. TC is quite well known to certain people.

Looking at the event for Tuesday, Upper air temps are -6 to -7c. 2m temps are around 0-2c A(t most) inland areas are likely to be below freezing, while dew points are likely to be 0-1c at most, even then they are likely to be lower going by the cold around at the moment.

The latest BBC forecast didn't really mention any rain or sleet. I think inland areas or any areas with any elevation will see snow from this, and IMO snow is more than possible on the coast.

Hopefully Ian will agree with this.

[khodds]

And another update on the FAX:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax60s.gif

Wrap-round trough following the front

SK

This is good..right? What does it mean? Sorry - havent a clue!

[Ian Fergusson]

Thermohaline Conveyor:Rain and Sleet under a boundary of -7 DP of -1/0 and a 2mT of 1 - 3 - any remotely moderate PPN will fall exclusively as snow. I think all this talk about warm sectors is not really understood fully by some. The air is certainly milder than the surrounding air that the low is moving into, but when this air is -10/-11 and -12 the actual warm sector is -7 or -8 which is a nice required snowfall parameter - regardless of whether it is a warm sector relative to it's environmental."

hope i dont get told off for this but this quote from another forum site. TC is quite well known to certain people.

TC is an absolute genius, in my opinion, and deserves utmost credit.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

TC is an absolute genius, in my opinion, and deserves utmost credit.

High praise indeed!

[aspire27]

I love the model output thread, and as some of you know i like to post some 'Classic Quotes', heres one for you....

"We are on the brink of what could go down in history as one of the greatest cold/snowy spells in the past 50 years."

[khodds]

TC is an absolute genius, in my opinion, and deserves utmost credit.

Exactly what I'd say... not sure why some boards are critisising him - his forcasts are pretty much spot on most of the time.